Pundit's Perspectives – Fri 3 May, 2013

Gary Savage (Smart Money Tracker) and Big Al discuss gold and the conventional markets.

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show


Featuring:
Al KorelinGary Savage

Comments:
  1. On May 3, 2013 at 10:26 am,
    the other "big Al" says:

    Look at PG’s cartoon ,nobody cares about the debt ,us gold bugs are the loneliest people in the world, going golfing…..out.

    • On May 3, 2013 at 1:08 pm,
      Pencho says:

      What is PG’s cartoon ?

    • On May 3, 2013 at 7:05 pm,
      Big Al says:

      So how did you play?

      I could not stand it anymore and went out and played. Put up a kind of honest 89!

      Big Al

      • On May 3, 2013 at 8:11 pm,
        the othe " big Al" says:

        Kind Of honest ,you sound like the Crime_ oh I mean Comex, ,ah I went out too ,my approach game is a joke. I want to say that it was refreshing to be at peace when I said to myself all this money printing is insanity and I will go down with the gold ship if that what the forces of the markets say ,just remember gold has no one to help it cheat .

        • On May 3, 2013 at 10:05 pm,
          Big Al says:

          So where did you play?

          If you are anywhere close to me, let’s tee it up some time!

          Big Al

  2. On May 3, 2013 at 10:43 am,
    Marc says:

    Hey All:
    Gold and silver will languish UNTIL something pushes it dramatically higher. When and what is anybody’s guess. IT IS NOT easy to be in the PM sector right now. BUT, when you are doing the RIGHT thing -IT IS NEVER EASY. You have to be strong in your convictions AND NOT a chaser of IMMEDIATE GRATIFICATION. That is just the way it is. Everybody is “partying” right now EXCEPT us. Fine – just wait til this “magic show” ends. Where will you be? I know where I will be. And it won’ be fun watching people scream and moan. Not at all. But, that is just the way it is.
    All the best,
    Marc

    • On May 3, 2013 at 2:37 pm,
      Silverbug Dave says:

      I tend to agree, Marc. This is a great broadcast with Gary Savage, a must listen. My interpretation:
      I like Gary Savage’s comments saying that conventional stocks are not a great idea as a buy right now because:
      We are 4 years into cyclical bull market for stocks and also 24 weeks into this intermediate cycle that usually rolls over and bottoms after lasts 22 weeks and falls about 40-50 points – and we haven’t even topped yet and are a very long way above 200dma, so maybe a much larger correction is coming.
      His best comment is:
      “QE3 and 4 have caused a runaway move in stock markets.”
      NOW, THIS IS JUST LIKE GOLD AND SILVER IN 2010-11 – we had a runaway move on QE1 and QE2 and we didn’t perceive it as such – we were blinded by bullishness. on the metals.
      Then you get a crash, like we got in gold and silver in 2012-2013.
      I am interested that Gary thinks the Fed will double down on QE in the summer if the stock market turns down aggressively.
      As an aside, even though the US dollar has turned down just here, interestingly the price objective on the Point & Figure chart on stockcharts.com is still at 102! Something big needs to change to get that price objective back to being a bearish one.

      • On May 3, 2013 at 7:09 pm,
        Big Al says:

        I do agree with Gary’s comments about more quantitative easing.
        Big Al

    • On May 3, 2013 at 7:06 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Go to wwwgrandich.com

      BigAl

    • On May 3, 2013 at 7:07 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Kind of hard to disagree, Marc!

      Big Al

  3. On May 3, 2013 at 11:30 am,
    Gary says:

    A collapsing dollar will drive it, along with shortages that were created during the recent manipulation.

  4. On May 3, 2013 at 11:51 am,
    Gary says:

    BTW the link for the newsletter is http://www.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com

    I don’t think Al has the link active yet in the favorites section.

  5. On May 3, 2013 at 12:09 pm,
    proud canuck says:

    I’m glad he is coming on….also looking forward to T/A and what rick has to say about his prediction on gold going to 1361 possibly in the next couple of days!?

  6. On May 3, 2013 at 12:56 pm,
    JERRY.................O^OTB says:

    I would have to agree with Gary,,,regarding the stock market…..this market,,,is only supported by QE….and is going to result in a worse bubble, than 2000internet bubble,,,

    Where I disagree with Gary….the timing……….I think the big boyz ,will be to busy getting their suntans,and the lazy days of summer,,,they will not be in their offices…..and if they are not in their offices,,,,how will they pull the trigger,,,,No.,,,,I see OCT…..as a crash…..1987 style……..Plus, it will be Halloween time and they can blame it on the stars and the”” HEADLESS HORSEMAN””….see Dennis for details…………………………………ootb

    • On May 3, 2013 at 7:11 pm,
      Big Al says:

      I am not sure that this will be . A particularly quiet summer. We shall we but I don’t think so. Too much Crap going on.

      Big Al

  7. On May 3, 2013 at 2:01 pm,
    James (the lesser) says:

    I am not concerned about retesting the bottom in gold. I am concerned about what is going to get gold back to $1900. Every bullish data point/issue/fundamental has done nothing to get gold back to those highs. What’s going to change.cwe could be a new new normal. The old range normal of $1550 to $1800 might now become the new normal $1320 to $1550.
    Don’t bet on any more QE!

    • On May 3, 2013 at 2:40 pm,
      Silverbug Dave says:

      The US dollar has to take a crash.

    • On May 3, 2013 at 7:13 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Cannot agree The . GREATER. Sorry

      Big Al

  8. On May 3, 2013 at 3:20 pm,
    MIKE KLEVEN says:

    na

  9. On May 3, 2013 at 5:38 pm,
    Paul L says:

    Sold my gold stocks I had bought this week on Thursday as gold generally gets hit with each employment report. Bought a large amount of UYM-materials etf yesterday and was up 5% today closing just around 3.7% up. I sensed the the market was about to breakout as most analysts were calling a top. Sold these back a few days ago when they topped and bought back in.

  10. On May 3, 2013 at 7:15 pm,
    Big Al says:

    As you are all aware I got out of two positions recently. I am also buying more NuLegacy next week.

    BigAl

  11. On May 4, 2013 at 1:41 am,
    Bird Man says:

    I cannot agree with Gary here. He is using the wrong information to guide his predictions and so it is not a surprise he will come to the wrong conclusions. Perhaps he might explain why another QE will benefit gold when the last three did very little to support prices. It was really only QEI and the anticipation of high inflation that drove gold in any case. Since then the effect has been diminishing.

    Someone also please tell me why the USD will crash or decline waterfall fashion if an equities correction is coming and when we all know that event is usually dollar positive?

    The dollar has been trading between 72 and 88 for the past five years. It is merely near its mid point range now despite all that has transpired over that time. If anything it will make a run higher when a correction materializes. That is not gold positive and it is my belief that the two year trend of declining gold prices will remain intact. The recent price rise in precious metals is just the setup for a shorting opportunity or another chance to sell before the next leg down begins as I see it.

    Of course, most here will probably disagree with me. I am no fan of confirmation bias though. I also fail to understand how a consensus amongst the analysts on this program can possibly change the outcome one way or another. When we all agree does that usually make us right or wrong? If a consensus were all that we needed to move higher then gold would be trading at three thousand dollars already.

    Obviously it is not.

    I don’t want to offend anyone but the whole bottom-calling exercise is a waste of time and self defeating when it leads to conclusions that are not supported by recent history or facts. All the fundamental rationalizations in the world will not change the outcomes one iota when the fact of continuous declines tells us the trajectory is moving against the wishes of the crowd.

    An 18 month decline in prices followed by a very sharp spike lower is not a signal to buy in my books. It is a huge red flag. Backing and filling in such a case is only a setup for the next decline and respectfully I suggest you all be mentally prepared for it when it comes because these declines have not ended.

    In the meantime, we are all being treated to a chorus of voices all singing from the same songbook (as is usual amongst those on the one-sided buy-only gold trade). There are shortages they shout and coin premiums are high! That is surely proof that metals are going much higher.

    All nonsense as usual. There is no shortage of gold or silver anywhere but rather just a temporary situation of low stocks in coins. That will be rectified as more are pumped out to meet that demand but we are not seeing a whole new class of buyers come to market in any case.

    Not at all. It is the same people who were already invested in bullion products who are buying at the current lower values in the belief that this is a huge opportunity to back up the truck. Nobody ever seems to learn. I tend to disagree with them and not just because it is a herd mentality that drives the same passions as usual but because the sentiments are flawed. We have been hearing the exact same rationalizations for why gold must have hit bottom and will soon rise ever since it began its decline from 1923 dollars!

    Hell, we are hearing an almost photocopy version of rationalizations that played out through the early 1980’s as gold fell day after day until there was finally silence and capitulation all around.

    How satisfying is it that each low was eventually met with another low?

    Call me cynical perhaps (or better yet a realist). The powers that be hate gold and want it dead. That includes every major government and Central Bank on the planet. What makes everyone so certain they will beat those forces anyway? So the cards are stacked against a big sudden updraft in metals prices right now and until I see solid technical evidence of a reversal I won’t be changing my view. Gold has been mortally wounded in the publics mind, perhaps by design and a recovery could take many years.

    So patting ourselves on the back and agreeing that each other is 100% right will not do a damn thing to change the trajectory nor the future of prices especially as they are now in a firm declining trend channel. It is more meaningful that we focus on the damage that has been done to the charts and try to come to rational conclusions about the future rather than allowing a pre existing bias cloud our investing theme.

    I am a strong believer that if we want to make money in this market we need to keep an open mind and be prepared to change course when timing dictates. Holding fast in the face of such devastating declines is foolish and costly regardless of the reasons that price is falling.

    Are we investing to make money here or is to make losses while proving a point? Serious question.

    • On May 4, 2013 at 1:52 pm,
      Jason says:

      Couple points…

      The difference between now and the early 1980s is a man called Paul Volcker.

      Have you looked at a 15-year gold chart? Who is being unrealistic or inventing rationalizations? Gold bulls? Or people like you trying to pick a top?

      • On May 4, 2013 at 11:29 pm,
        Bird Man says:

        There is no final answer, Jason. Each day I look at the historical information versus the trend and try to see it with fresh eyes again. I worry I might be deluding myself so I push the exercise just to challenge my own thinking. Don’t be offended as I am really just talking out loud on the current mood and tossing around the ideas in a different way. My interest is the mining companies by the way and less so physical ownership which is a waste of time for me. The problem is my doubts about price will affect if and when I can get back into the miners which are my real love. So not calling tops or bottoms here…..just ruminating about charts and the opinions others are expressing. I find it helpful even if it sometimes comes across as too blunt!

  12. On May 4, 2013 at 5:17 am,
    Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

    Thankyou Bird Man.

    It’s good that someone has the strength of character to think beyond the box of the consensus thinking on Al’s website. Of course us goldbugs or whatever we call ourselves wish and long for the great rally which we’re all told must one day come. But I have said earlier that I haven’t a clue when it comes to what moving day averages are or whot all the charts might mean. And nor do I want to keep my spirits up on dreams alone.

    Logic/intution alone however tell me that with so many currencies now in meltdown an alternative has to present itself sooner or later.

    Quite possibly the schemers and crooks will keep the dollar on life-support for longer than any of us might suppose, so your caution needs to be respected. After all your caveats strike me as much more carefully expressed than say the likes of folk such as Silver Fox who seems only to crow over his wholly negative view re PMs.

    Perhaps Bob Moriatry’s perspective is helpful here when he reminds us that large corrections such as the current one are perfectly normal, and that they have no bearing on some fiendish schemes being devised worldwide.

    • On May 4, 2013 at 6:29 am,
      Bird Man says:

      Thanks Andrew. I don’t labor under the view that markets are fair. I have no doubt that precious metals prices are being suppressed but in understanding that dynamic and in the pursuit of gains versus losses have chosen to take the path of most profitability where that means playing the volatility as it arises and understanding that some forces are well beyond my control.

  13. On May 5, 2013 at 8:52 am,
    Gary says:

    Birdman,
    Here is the answer to your questions.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=9&mn=6&dy=0&id=p56636004600&a=271274867&listNum=1

    As you can see I’ve marked the three year cycle lows for the dollar index along with the due date for the next one. The current three year dollar cycle has already topped and in a left translated fashion. Left translated cycles more often than not move below the prior low. That means this very weak three year cycle ( it couldn’t even come close to exceeding the highs of the last three year cycle) should drop below the may 2011 bottom and probably below the 08 bottom.

    It’s also clear in the chart that major moves down into three year cycle lows are what drive big legs up in the gold bull.

    The last leg up topped as the dollar bottomed. Gold has been consolidating as the dollar rallied out of it’s three year cycle low over the last two years.

    Now it’s time for the dollar to drop into the next major multi year cycle low over the next year and a half. That will drive another leg up in gold. The recent manipulation to run the stops at $1523 just exacerbated the condition as it has created global shortages.

    I’m starting to think that what we just saw might end up being the correction that separates the second stage of the bull market from the bubble phase.

    A top for gold in 2014/15 as the dollar bottoms would make this a 14/15 year bull market. That’s about the average lifespan for a secular bull market.

  14. On May 5, 2013 at 10:50 am,
    Bird Man says:

    Thanks for a very interesting analysis, Gary.

  15. On February 3, 2014 at 5:34 am,
    Manuella says:

    Posts like this brheitgn up my day. Thanks for taking the time.