Al's Insights – Sat 11 May, 2013

Big Al talks with Gary Savage on Liberty Express Radio

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Featuring:
Al KorelinGary Savage

Comments:
  1. On May 11, 2013 at 11:58 am,
    Ann says:

    Really enjoyed the interview with Gary Salvage.Thank to both of you.

    • On May 13, 2013 at 2:07 pm,
      Lore says:

      Yes — Good segment — Thanks for the bit of encouragement.

  2. On May 11, 2013 at 12:42 pm,
    clay says:

    Sentiment. Yep, its changing to the upside for gold which is reflective of the worry that the standard market is rising for practically no reason except money printing. When things climb a wall of worry, it is much more healthy than when something shoots up towards the Moon like Japanese indexes and many in the US. Long term, gold is climbing an incredibly long and powerful wall of worry, these are the best places to be especially when it is saving money and making sound investments all at the same time.

  3. On May 11, 2013 at 12:50 pm,
    Bird Man says:

    Highly likely we get a pullback next week in equity markets. My money is on red for gold.

    • On May 12, 2013 at 12:53 pm,
      Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

      Hopefully not ‘smoked’ though Bird Man!

  4. On May 11, 2013 at 4:03 pm,
    Kevin says:

    Sentiment is not turning up for gold. You guys are broken records.

    Exeter is back at 2003 levels. Al has told his listener for 3 years that the conventional market would underperform. It has been dead wrong. Sprott’s funds have a negative return except under the 10 year and since inception categories. Dead wrong.

    If my doctor had track records like this I would be dead.

    • On May 11, 2013 at 6:31 pm,
      Marc says:

      IMHO, If you stay solely in ‘paper assets’ you will be dead (financially speaking) and you will need to take Mandarin lessons…. :).

      • On May 12, 2013 at 1:05 am,
        Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

        Kevin, your long-term overviews are salutary, but surely Marc’s points are equally important?

    • On May 12, 2013 at 2:29 am,
      JERRY..the LONG...............O^OTB says:

      I guess,,,that is why you would want to hold… physical….in lieu of funds…..funds of any kind…………..someone else controls the funds, and decides what to buy, what to hold and what to trade…………….and can decide everything, at your disadvantage.

    • On May 12, 2013 at 4:31 am,
      Trader Joe says:

      Exactly right

      Buy…buy…buy….

      Now’s the time

      All the way to zero

      Insane advice

  5. On May 11, 2013 at 5:52 pm,
    Dick Tracy says:

    Robert Moriarty
    From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    Robert James Moriarty
    Born September 9, 1946[1]
    Schenectady, NY, USA[1]
    Nationality USA
    Known for The first man to fly between the pillars of the Eiffel tower[1][2][3][4]
    Robert J. Moriarty is a former American Marine F-4B fighter pilot who recorded over 824 missions in combat. At the age of 20, he was the youngest naval aviator in the Vietnam war. He became a captain in the Marines at the age of 22.[2][5][6]
    He holds 14 international aviation records including Lindbergh’s record for time between New York to Paris in two different categories.[5][7] On 31 March 1984 at 11:20, Moriarty flew between the pillars of the Eiffel tower aboard a Beechcraft Bonanza aircraft. He had been part of a team entered in the Paris to Libreville air race but an engine failure south of Portugal forced him to drop out. After repairing the plane, and encouraged by Richard Fenwic, he turned his attention to the Eiffel Tower.[8] When asked why he had done it, he replied: “Just for fun”.[1][2][3][4][8]
    Moriarty as an Author: 20 years ago, a portion of the story of Vietnam Marine Corp Veteran Moriarty Vietnam experiences, what he saw and what others did, were self-authored in a fictional story titled “Crap Shoot” by Robert J Moriarty, [1993]. Crap Shoot” was One of a dozen or so books or “booklets” written by Moriarty. In Robert’s opening paragraphs, he wrote:
    “I had eleven months in-country and orders to report to El Toro in California in two-months. My log showed 253 combat missions and I spent every single one of them hurling myself at the earth making little sticks out of big sticks”
    In 1993, Robert and “Barb” [Robert's Wife] would spend hours telling stories of Robert’s time as a Marine Corp Pilot in Vietnam and his beloved Marine Corp BIRD DOG. Moriarty was an experienced Forward Spotter for the Marine Corps; a 12 month tour of duty beset by harrowing close calls with the enemy in his thin skinned Cessna.
    The airplane Moriarty piloted was the L-19, better known as the “Bird Dog”, a Cessna FAC [forward air control] and Observation aircraft. The “Bird Dog” was utilized for 14 years in Vietnam War. The USAF, USMC, US army, Australian Army’s 161 Flight Reconnaissance and the South Vietnamese AENV AND SVAF flew this plane. In fact, a Major in the South Vietnamese Air Force was able to fly his wife and children in a Bird Dog out of vietnam and land on a Carrier a day before the fall of South Vietnam.
    Robert and “Barb” produced “proof copies” of “CRAP SHOOT”. The works by Robert and Barb are 4.5 x 6 inch professionally printed, mini books titled “PRINCESS NOVELS” & “PEANUT BOOKS”. In addition to “Crap Shoot”, titles include “The Princess and the Frog” and “THE PRINCESS AND THE PILOT”. Forward/copyright: “by Robert J Moriety COPYRIGHT 1993 GYPSY WINDS INC MIAMI FLA, USA, PRINTED IN SPAIN; opening: “ABOUT THE AUTHOR, ROBERT J MORIETY IS A FORMER MARINE CORPS PILOT WHO WON THREE PEN AWARDS FOR HIS WRITING, HE LIVES IN MIAMI WITH HIS WIFE WHO JUST HAPPENS TO BE A FORMER DAISY FAERIE FROM CORNWALL. HE CONTINUES TO WRITE MORE PRINCESS NOVELS”. The information as to address varies. Copyright is listed as “1993 GYPSY WINDS INC MIAMI FLORIDA”, “COC0NUT GROVE FLA”, and “A PEANUT BOOKS LITTLE BARN PENDEEN, PENZANCE, CORNWALL TR19 7ER ENGLAND” address.
    Moriarty tells of his service as a FAC and SPOTTER; a “POSITION whose glory had been lost to those of the military jet aircraft pilots”. He states that the “MARINE ground pounder called the THE FAC in their Cessna’ and the pilots of the A-37, THE SMALL GIANTS OF THE PACK”.
    [edit]Family

    He has a twin brother, James Robert Moriarty.
    [edit] I found this article interesting because not only is Bob M a oner but he also has a twin brother who could be identical rather than fraternal, can you imagine having two of the same, not possible in my opinion. DT

  6. On May 11, 2013 at 7:13 pm,
    Marc says:

    Big Al and all:
    Steve Forbes article on what new gold standard might look like, huh? How do you account got the trillions of dolllars already out in the “system”. In other words, the “horse is already out of the barn”. Comments?http://financialsurvivalnetwork.com/2013/05/advance-look-what-the-new-gold-standard-will-look-like/
    Marc

    • On May 11, 2013 at 7:14 pm,
      Marc says:

      Boy, sorry for all the typos….

    • On May 12, 2013 at 2:44 am,
      JERRY..the LONG...............O^OTB says:

      Steve Forbes…..might be part of the group….he use to be part of msn,,,I do not watch msn any longer…..so, I do not know if he is still there…..if, he is he is part of the problem……

      • On May 12, 2013 at 6:42 am,
        Simon says:

        In June 2011, Steve Forbes was part of a contingent of the ICC (International Chamber of Commerce) in Greece determining how to carve-up the nations assets at pennies on the dollar.

        Yes, he is part of the Rape & Pillage.

        • On May 12, 2013 at 6:53 am,
          JERRY..the LONG...............O^OTB says:

          SIMON…..thanks for my confirmation…………..ootb

        • On May 12, 2013 at 8:21 am,
          impeach says:

          I don’t doubt for a minute that Forbes is looking to stuff his pockets where opportunities arise. But Simon, have you ever been in Greece? I suspect that the supposed “dollar” values of most assets had been overvalued given the dominant mindset and near-term prospects.

          @Jerry: Glad to hear you’ll carry on the struggle. For the campaign, feel free to use any SMALLCAPS writing of the slogan. Everything else is protected by my offshored intellectual property unit, you would not be able to afford using it, I’m planning to make huge amounts of $$ once the lame stream media start copying the slogan! By the way, as you might have heard on this site, starting out with some inflated budget for a chair position is a sure sign of an endeavor bound to never reach its stated goal…

          • On May 12, 2013 at 9:13 am,
            JERRY..the LONG...............O^OTB says:

            impeach……..thanks for reply…….I was in Greece, two years ago….it did not seem to over valued,,,but,,I was living in Charleston,SC. at the time,,,,where everything is over priced…., so , you might be correct……
            I have always found it wise, to never under estimate someone elses wealth from general conversation……..IN regards to the slogan,,,, I am sure the slogan ,will be of great value, considering the
            opportunities which lay ahead….

            remember,,,,,in order to sail big ships,,,you need deep water……………..

  7. On May 12, 2013 at 2:46 am,
    JERRY..the LONG...............O^OTB says:

    IRISH…..where art thou……………

  8. On May 12, 2013 at 6:30 am,
    Simon says:

    Is it Gary Savage or Toby Connor? Why use dual names?

  9. On May 12, 2013 at 6:52 am,
    Simon says:

    The repair/healing process in the metals will more than likely take months (perhaps several) for the technical (emphasize ‘technical’) posture to recapture/display favorable/healthy characteristics.

    That being said, the Super-Cycle secular trend remains intact.

  10. On May 12, 2013 at 7:53 am,
    JoeH says:

    lol according to Gary’s Technicals. Goodness gracious man. According to that fool it was supposed to have been significantly higher some 6-9 months ago. His advice is a left-handed dart toss (assuming you’re right handed) at BEST. An unmitigated disaster. The guy now needs about a DOUBLE just to get back to even. Which is to say so what if miners go 2X from here, he’ll still be miles underwater because he has no money management principles that are worth spit.

    • On May 12, 2013 at 8:40 am,
      Jay Young says:

      Very true!. Gary is a train wreck. He claimed that he outperformed most hedge funds, but that was a total lie. He claimed he could achieve 20 or 30% a year with little risk with his Model Port, but he got slammed in 2012 and 2013, and he got rid of the orignal Model Port. He took down his performance data. The original Model Port is now replaced with an “Old Turkey” (hold and pray) port. He discontinued the use of stops, and he thinks hedging with puts is a “waste of money.” LOL I’d rather invest in T-Bills earning zero-percent interest than trade like Gary. If anyone really believes in metals, then they should just buy and hold and forget about anything Gary has to say. He can’t predict what will happen any more than Magic 8-Ball could. LOL His cycles and waves are great only in hindsight. If he had any success in the past, I can assure you it was due to a bull market and his methods. He told people he would “make them rich” but the exact opposite is what happened (they got slammed). People are so gullible. There’s no shortage of suckers willing to subcribe to a newsletter that is only good for entertainment value!

      • On May 12, 2013 at 8:43 am,
        Jay Young says:

        meant to say, “due to a bull market and NOTdue to his methods”

  11. On May 12, 2013 at 8:41 am,
    MNH says:

    I think Gary is spot on. I’m not buying miners though cuz I lost my shirt in 2012…..but Phyzz his going to grind higher.

    • On May 13, 2013 at 12:23 am,
      Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

      Gold still going to $1700 by mid June, MNH? Reassure me!

      • On May 13, 2013 at 6:32 am,
        MNH says:

        Rev….Rog says higher by June too…..
        All I can say is what I’m doing: Since Mid March/Cyprus been adding phyzz. My knees weren’t knocking as I read the hand witting on the wall. Added even more Mid April and fired both barrels again on Friday, close enough to call in Mid May.
        Blessings!

        • On May 13, 2013 at 11:42 am,
          Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

          Thanks MNH, A

  12. On May 12, 2013 at 9:29 am,
    dw jones says:

    wow, some of you people are awfully harsh on the prognosticators!these people are going out on a limb to foretell the future of pm’s (stocks & phys) by technicals or fundamentals with the best information available. the problem is the powers that be (fed/banks) intervene to manipulate the market to support the dollar! as long as they are able to get away this it will continue. which means it will go on longer than most people will be able to stay the course. that is what they are counting on!!! the house of cards will fall some day so you just buy silver a little at a time to be prepared for that day! have patience dwj

    • On May 12, 2013 at 10:04 am,
      Marc says:

      Boy, common sense again from dw jones!

  13. On May 12, 2013 at 11:36 am,
    Bird Man says:

    I think your readers and listeners don’t respect Gary’s opinion, Al. I was biting my tongue all through the interview. I won’t give the time of day to anything he says either. Just repetitious recycled fluff. Very sorry….Gary is not insightful or helpful.

  14. On May 12, 2013 at 11:40 am,
    clay says:

    Judging from the many above who are so negative for gold miners and some who are negative on gold, this is what contrarian investors look for. the Hulbert gold index is now at -31 which is lower than any time in last 18 years. Every time the index reached such low levels was just before the price went up, sometimes substantially.

    http://www.thetsitrader.blogspot.com/2013/05/gold-and-silver-sentiment-reversal-is.html

    • On May 12, 2013 at 12:45 pm,
      Bird Man says:

      But sometimes it does not go back up. Even contrarians get it wrong at times. There is a myth that contrarian investors are almost always correct. The facts differ with reality though. Most end up losing their shirts which is why being on the other side of the trade can be so painful. Markets are not rational.

      • On May 12, 2013 at 1:06 pm,
        impeach says:

        As we can tell by his new photograph, Gary only lost his sunglasses, which is generally good for credibility, and his backpack, which now seems more prudent than just a month ago.

        • On May 12, 2013 at 2:30 pm,
          Bird Man says:

          That guy brings down the quality of the site. I don’t understand why Al promotes him.

  15. On May 12, 2013 at 4:16 pm,
    James (the lesser) says:

    WSJ reports FED is tapering down QE. This is more than a rumor. If it does turn put to be true gold will get rushed. Already down $7 Sunday night. Gold acting like it is true.

    • On May 13, 2013 at 2:18 pm,
      JERRY..the LONG...............O^OTB says:

      JAW BONE-ING………

      • On May 13, 2013 at 2:19 pm,
        JERRY..the LONG...............O^OTB says:

        SINCE THEY ARE OUT OF PHYSICAL….WHAT DO THEY HAVE LEFT…..

  16. On May 12, 2013 at 4:30 pm,
    James (the lesser) says:

    Gold dropping like a rock. Looks like Fridays comback another disappointment

  17. On May 12, 2013 at 5:03 pm,
    James (the lesser) says:

    Gold really getting hit hard already tonight. Looks like Asian demand is drying up. Could be a real smash come Monday.

  18. On May 12, 2013 at 6:14 pm,
    James (the lesser) says:

    Absolutely getting crushed. Not good at all! All these gold cheerleaders leading everyone over a cliff.

  19. On May 12, 2013 at 7:28 pm,
    dw jones says:

    don’t they always attaack the gold market at the lightest trading volumes & times of the week? especially sundays & night trading? oh well, so we hit another double bottom & then go back up? let’s wait & see what happens in the opening of the market monday morning. i don’t think we will see much until the fall (sept +) til than i can live with low prices & can accumulate that much more!

    • On May 13, 2013 at 10:10 am,
      Bird Man says:

      I hate to have to tell you all but we are going to break below the lows of May 11th. This is not just a case of retesting anymore and my indictors say we will keep falling which will be very discouraging for anyone trying to buy the bottom right now. There is no consolation prize unless you have taken out a short position.

    • On May 13, 2013 at 2:22 pm,
      JERRY..the LONG...............O^OTB says:

      DWJONES…………you are correct……always happens,,,,,you can go back 5 years,,,and overlap a chart on anyday ,,,,and see that LONDON CLOSE, NY OPEN,,,early morning…..it spikes down…………………..

  20. On May 12, 2013 at 7:55 pm,
    Dennis F. Brophy says:

    I think when the decoupling takes place between the paper and physical, then the physical price will soar to new highs. I noticed this link Global Commodity ETP Quarterly – Q1 2013 – ETF Securities http://www.etfsecurities.com/Documents/Global%20Commodity%20ETP%20Quarterly%20-%20Q1%20201 towards the near end of the doument your find Sprout`s holding in Pt, Pd ETF`s. When it was said that he bought $280, million dollars in Pt, & Pd of course its much easier to hold ETF`s than the physical. It was interesting to see who has what & where & what country that these possible trades are coming from.

  21. On May 12, 2013 at 9:59 pm,
    Pibe says:

    Why do you keep paying attention to this guy Gary? (horrible investment advice and record, lost money for all his subscribers, awful timing). Seriously Why? Every time he predicts something the opposite happens. Sorry but as an ex-subscriber I have to tell the truth.

  22. On May 12, 2013 at 11:28 pm,
    Alexa says:

    Why does anyone care what he thinks? I am former subscriber to his newsletter for 2 years and he has consistently lost money. Please do not waste space for this so called expert.

    • On May 13, 2013 at 2:17 pm,
      Lore says:

      I challenge anyone here to point out a newsletter that is consistently green over the last two years.

  23. On May 13, 2013 at 7:56 am,
    benb says:

    Its still early Monday but the “katie bar the door” “its off to the races” isnt workin out right now, its early tho.
    The mention of more bottoms,..I think there are many bottoms in this world and some are more nice to see than others.
    The Chineese are still buying gold and goldmines, should be telling us something.
    I think the 08 crash was a much better time than this and we have a ways to go to come close to it yet, miners going down I mean.
    Then I saw lots, some 10 baggers, doubles and triples seemed to be everywhere, fr 5x if i recall for example coper fox 5 cents to $2.50 even gold goliath went from 5 cents to 75 cents timmons went from 50 cents to where was it recently? 3-3.50?
    I am thinking to duplicate that we should be looking at 5 cent shares but alot of them now really dont have cash, just cant see a $3 tmm stock go to $30 very easily.
    We would need gold to hit 10k, possible I guess. Probable according to Mr.Turk.

  24. On May 13, 2013 at 8:15 am,
    Greg says:

    Bemb..you mentioned GNG. Any thought about it,trading aroung a nickle at present.I believe it was a favorite of Ian Gordons awhile back.TIA

  25. On May 13, 2013 at 10:04 am,
    benb says:

    I dont know about it, Jay Taylor changed his mind about it, I never found out why.
    They did get more cash so will keep operating and Agnico? is drilling altho slowly it seems to me, indicating its not high on their priority list.
    I guess if gold/silver move up so would gng, the real story I think Would be agnico wanting to get involved in mining it. But there having a look so who knows.
    Does a big MAYBE help? lol. I should write my own letter. lol

    • On May 13, 2013 at 10:24 am,
      Greg says:

      Much appreciated,maybe i’ll stop by Ian’s office in the next week or so.He had a large position at one time, but don’t see it on his “buy list” at present.

  26. On May 14, 2013 at 8:22 am,
    Pibe says:

    “I challenge anyone here to point out a newsletter that is consistently green over the last two years.”

    Alexa you should say “I challenge anyone here to point out a newsletter that is consistently losing money like Gary’s over the last two years.”

    I can pinpoint some serious technical analysis guys and economist who recommended getting out of gold and silver during 2011 and 2012 such as:ArmstrongEconomics and Puru Saxena (I have much more).

    So my statement is still the same GARY CONSISTENTLY LOSES MONEY FOR HIS SUBSCRIBERS – DO NOT EVEN ATTEMPT TO FOLLOW WHAT HE RECOMMENDS BECAUSE YOU WILL LOSE MONEY. I AM TALKING AS AN EX-SUBSCRIBER (AND FOR WHAT I SEE OTHER EX SUBSCRIBERS ARE MAD AT HIM AS WELL – HE DOES NOT EVEN HAVE THE MINIMUM BACKGROUND IN ECONOMICS NOR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – HE IS A ROCK CLIMBER WHO HAPPENS TO CHARGE PEOPLE FOR HIS ILL INFORMED ADVICE). PLEASE BE AWARE OF THAT.

    THANK YOU

  27. On May 15, 2013 at 10:28 am,
    ms says:

    Gary needs to be stopped…..his actions and opinions are reckless and people who pay him for that advice are losing their shirts. PLEASE DO NOT FOLLOW GARY’S ADVICE

  28. On May 15, 2013 at 11:23 am,
    Pibe says:

    Ms: You are absolutely right. This guy is dangerous since he is not only losing money; he is also inexperienced, in denial and arrogant. You know what he told me when I started questioning him more than one year ago? That my comments were too negative and that he would start using them as a contrarian indicator! Nice way to treat a subscriber eh? That was more than a year ago! When the HUI was around 450. That’s why he had to close the comments section in the “unpaid” portion of his website –because people were complaining too much- and now he is calling us “trolls”. This guy deserves to be taken to court!!

  29. On May 15, 2013 at 5:47 pm,
    Alexa says:

    David Bensimon and Mark Lebovit’s newsletter have accurately called the downturn in the gold and silver markets. In October 2012, David Bensimon forecasted a decline in silver from $34 to 22 and gold price from $1700 to $ 1300. Gary invested half his net worth in silver call options expiring in 2015 when silver was in the low 30s. He has no money management skills. I suggest everyone use Gary as a contrarian indicator.

  30. On May 16, 2013 at 8:38 am,
    MS says:

    that being said, I heard Gary went short miners today so it’s probably time to load up on the long side

  31. On May 16, 2013 at 10:53 am,
    Mike says:

    Ms,
    After what he said in the radio show now he is shorting miners? Really? Do you think he is purposely misleading subscribers to take advantage of it or he is just plain dumb? This guy puzzles me….but anyway stay away from what he advices –you will have better chances going to a casino!

  32. On May 16, 2013 at 11:00 am,
    MS says:

    Mike:

    I think he’s just stupid. actually scratch that, i think he is genius…..get thousands of subscribers to your blog and live off that, who needs to be right. Do the math, 2000 subs at $200 a pop for the year

  33. On May 17, 2013 at 8:05 am,
    JJ says:

    Newsletter writers make money selling newsletters. Period. If they had some secret trading system why would they tell anyone? Cycles are all done in hindsight – they have no predictive value hence the need to constantly call “turning points” so they can say they were right. It doesn’t matter their subscribers are getting killed in the meantime, Savage, who writes under more than one name – an obvious flag – lives off subscriptions. His trades that are not bailed out by the bull market are a disaster. Add in the fact that many of his former subscribers who disagree with his advice say they are abused by him and you can see what value to place on his advice. None. Avoid.

  34. On May 24, 2013 at 12:00 pm,
    TraderOrInvestor says:

    It all comes down to the question: are you an investor or a trader? Mr. Savage just sounds too bitter.. classic example of how a trader turned into a long term investor…who cares really? if you want to make money, stay the hell away from PM right now..let the “smart” people chop themselves up..there will be an entry point if this bull is not dead..you do not need to try to catch a falling knife!

  35. On May 24, 2013 at 3:22 pm,
    Pibe says:

    Trader,
    Gary is neither an investor nor a trader. I would qualify him as a mercenary gambler who uses his sales skills to persuade people into buying his “cheap” subscriptions and that he has the ability to predict future movements in the PM market by using his “magic cycles”. Gold up or down? Who knows? Certainly not Gary –take a look at his last 2 year calls ALL WRONG! -but it does not matter because he is still collecting lots of money by selling “magic cycles”.

  36. On May 26, 2013 at 11:09 am,
    Hans-J. Schmid says:

    Gary Savage threw in the towel. Lost too many subscribers and doesn’t post any more on his blog. Another soothsayer going down. Sad, sad story.