Monday with Rick Ackerman
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Comments from Chicago Fed President Evans:
•Sees 2.5% growth this year, 3-4% next year
•US growth should be self-sustaining in 2 years
•Economy performing pretty well now
•Recent economic data have been a little mixed
•Confident the Fed has the right accommodation in place
looks like no tapering and full QE for now…Bernake will say the same…”QE is working and we need to keep it going…no inflation now and if economy and job market significanly improves then and only then will we consider tapering…”
Off topic:
If my broker was open today I’d be shorting NE – Noble Drilling.
Who thinks that’s a crazy idea?
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?NE
Scream and shout !! It’s not a down day for the metals. YET !!!
Patience. This is suckers bounce. I would not buy it.
lets see what happens too early to tell yet…bounce could extend to july…then you could be right and a really vicious drop occurs..Birdman you have been spot on (no pun intended) recently so please keep up the comments..crazy times we are in i need all the help i can get 🙂
Well thanks, NYC. We are only as good as our last call though. There are no guarantees in life. For the record I expect that this bounce will fail and the correction will continue in due time. Rick Ackerman has done another excellent interview today and although I cannot make the calls as he does on where a specific bottom may lie I still remain confident that the corrective period is not yet over. Let us keep in mind that the dollar was getting overdue to slow its ascent and one outcome therefore would be that gold would rise on its reversal if only fleetingly. The week is still young though and the recent past trend in precious metals is still fully intact.
Besides….I won’t cry uncle until Al buys me my bottle of wine!!!
Suckers bounce? Looks more like short covering by a large position.
Massive volume spike within a 10 minute window of high noon EDT, then most of the upside held to the close.
Looking back to Apr, there were massive naked shorts that triggered stop losses that then pushed some of the stronger longs to sell due to margin calls. Now comes the initial short covering by the weaker shorts. This will be an exciting week. Will Al’s bottom hold??? I’m hanging on to my hat to see how many will hang on to their shorts….
The good news: AG – First Majestic Silver up almost 10%
The bad news: I’m pro’lly still down 50%
Irwin,
You’re not alone. I own a lot of AG all the way up to 22.00.
Good to have company in the bloody trenches.
Which reminds me; need to check if Casey Research is recommending “buy” yet. My guess is not.
I agree Al, gold longer term should be up, as a matter of fact i think there is a chance that most physical gets bought up. (maybe Im nuts) But if most gets bought up its “katie bar the door” I just think “the powers that be” havnt finished shakeing the tree.
The only thing I can see stopping gold going up would be hoards no one knows about stashed somewhere that get sold, demand fissles out or its outlawed/confiscated.
Bitcoin exchanges are now being attacked as seen as a threat to the dollar, gold could be too.
Anybody else follow Lindsey Williams?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vf8darllnw
whether he’s right or wrong, I have to give him credit for working tirelessly.
I listened to a variety of his April series of interviews. I am afraid that he could basically be right – even though his timelines are certainly nothing to trade by. This time though, I found his advertising of a Tijuana-based medical miracle clinic quite troubling even if they might really have cured him of Epstein-Barr or whatever Lindsey was suffering from. But can’t the old oil execs just pay his medical bills so he doesn’t need to advertize the Alivizatos cancer cure scam?
Come on the guy has to make a living. His prophecies have been quite good has he is inside with the elite.
yeah, he seemed to be correct about all the mayhem in the middle east. I listened to one of his mp3’s recently that I saved from a year ago.
Today was a clear reversal signal in silver.
Both from the overnight raid and also within NY trading you saw a 2 plus year low put in in a huge move lower followed by rally taking out the previous days high. This places the signal in a reversal day category.
This is not an all that common occurrence and demonstrates that the metal is in stronger hands. Fewer timid TD Ameritrade holders with stop loss targets for the taking were discovered during this bear raid. A volatile market has its moments… this could be one of them for silver.
Al some of us that are long on NZ would like to see a update. Tags new well on the east coast is looking great, some of the news letter writers are pushing Tag and NZ. NZ share price is up a little. A little news from them would be helpful. thanks for all the help.
IRWIN , I LISTEN TO LINDSEY WILLIAMS ON GOLD SEEK. I’AM KIND OF WONDERING ABOUT THIS ELITE FRIEND OF HIS. IT SOUNDS KIND OF HOKY. BEING A PREACHER HE HAS IT CORRECT ON SALVATION BY JESUS CHRIST ONLY. WHY WOULD HIS FREIND TELL HIM ALL THIS INFO. THESE ELITE GUYS ARE SETTING UP THE TRIBULATION. I THINK THERE IS SOMETHING FISHY ABOUT HIM. ANY WAY WE HAD A GOOD DAY TODAY. MAYBE BIG AL IS RIGHT WE COULD HAVE BOTTOMED IN APRIL. LETS HOPE SO.
Bottom in April? Not a chance…..but there is always hope for you guys.
Gold bottomed at $255.80 in April, 2001. It’s bold of you to say “Not a chance” now. What are you basing this certainty on?
I would tell you but you would believe it, Mathew. Your faith carried you this far down the price chain so it is probably best you stick with what you believe and I will stick with what I know.
PS: Told you guys today was not a good short. Next time listen.
With all due respect BM, faith has nothing to do with my trading actions. I sell strength and buy weakness. The greater the strength, the more I sell (and vice versa). Simple.
What’s with your “PS?” Who said anything about today being a good short? Here’s what you “knew” last night: “Gold off 2% and silver at 3% warn me this correction could get much uglier. We are approaching the bottom almost too fast so no surprise if we pound right through this week.”
So…are we going to “pound right through this week?”
P.s. –I’m sure others would be interested in your secret knowledge about gold bottoms in April.
It is just my sense of humour. Mathew. Quirky for some people. The gold market is a comedy lately.
Bird Man, why dont you ask that chartist guru, Denise Yamada out for dinner? With her presentation on Yahoo Finance, you guys would have a lot to talk about. Here she was all high and mighty giving her big presentation on her absolute chart stating that gold was going to 2,100 no problem ( a few years ago)..now she says gold doesnt stand a chance of moving to the upside. She is a charlatan along with many others. The fundamentals call for much, much higher prices much sooner than later…
BTW,
You can sound impressive and confident on this blog all you want…doesnt change the fundamentals any…they win out every single time.
Very sorry Marc but I am confident. No questions n my mind at all today. You will see.
With you all the way Marc!
ditto marc………………I am with you…….
I am sure Marc appreciates the moral support. It won’t stop the declines though nor will it end the current downtrend no matter how much love there is. Don’t take it personally that I disagree. Prices are NOT going to be “much, much higher” anytime soon.
BUT, you did get personal………….got ya……………
OH,,I was just bitting my lip…………..sorry,,,,
lindsay williams told everybody that his “elite friends” had decided romney was going to win the election, big long story to it, yadda yadda yadda he went on and on,as an example, he is a phoney and he puts the shos he is interviewed on in question as well imo.
He also said last year there would be “imminent hyperinflation”. So much for that.
Bemb, Should have included you in my response over L.Williams. The guy’s a ranting fraud!!
Don’t believe Lindsey Williams. He is a charlatan.
Irwin/Sliver Man:
Exactly my take on it Silver Man. Lindsey Williams cannot be in cahoots with his ‘elite’ friend and at the same time see the ‘elite’ as the enemy! Makes no sense.
Notwithstanding that his message sounds altogether plausible, as does that of many end-timers (after all Jesus said that frauds would even do signs and miracles in His name), they use wheezes like Cyprus or some recent event to hang a load of stuff on. 9/11 was a classic.
It’s also a trick as old as the hills to say the Lord has spoken to me, or that I have some special contacts in high places.
There’s no fool like an old fool as they say….sadly applies to my father in law who has many quite good (Christian) insights, but who’s mad as a hatter in other departments of his life and only in love with himself and his opinions.
Williams is a narcissist. Didn’t like his expression nor, for that matter, the sweat on his upper lip!!
Interesting day! Andrew Maguire postulated that there would be a lot of short covering below 1350. once the price got to the 1340 level, the short covering came in and took it up near 1400 in minutes.
So a successful test of the low in gold, for now.
No mention here of the gold:silver ratio. This is variable and seems to act like a credit spread. When credit conditions are bad, the Au:Ag rises and silver falls more than gold. In the 2008 crash. gold lost 34 and silver lost 60%. from the highs This time, gold was down about 30% and silver was down about 55% so far. Followng the same pattern, both times the AU@Ag ratio rose quite a lot.
Rick’s target of $18 on silver would wipe out the ENTIRE breakout in silver that started in late August 2010 from that level, which had been in a trading range of about $16-$19 at the time.$1150 gold would wipe out the similar rally in gold starting about the same time. AThe entire gains since the start of QE2 and going into QE3/QE4 would be zero. Isn’t Bernanke a genius?
Will you hate me if I agree that Ben Bernanke is a genius?
You know I am really surprised by the lack of confidence and conviction amongst those of you who invest in physical metals. Most have been silent as prices fell but in the last hours with just a minor uptick (not even 2%) you got all gussied up and ready to argue and fight. Problem is I don’t care. I don’t frankly give a damn if gold rises or falls and I don’t know why it is important to anyone else here either. All that matters is catching the direction and making a dollars profit. So please don’t get frustrated with my position or point of view. I am not religious about metals. They are just another commodities trade. Sometimes it makes money and other times you see loss. Like I always say….buy it, trade it… but never marry.
We are already in awe, Bird Man. Now please don’t stop our breathing entirely by telling us that you were anything other than lucky for not paper-marrying MF Global.
I am just lucky. Correct.
Did I mention I am good looking too?
“oxyge…!”
*fainting*
😉
women, boats and cars……….why buy what you can rent
I am not that sexy Dennis!
Dear “fundamentalists” out there, please help me out: Can you find out the exact time this interview took place, and got published? (Insiders reacting before 12??)
“More needs to be done on the policy front to address this rising debt ratio,” said Steven Hess, a senior vice president at New York-based Moody’s. (Bloomberg quote)
Know yourself, The Fed is building another bubble in real estate and although The US has had it’s property bubble deflate it is inflating again and I live in Toronto and let me tell you the housing bubble here has only gone up, no crashes yet but it is coming. You must remember that the Fed’s policies no longer are restricted to the continental US some of these apparitions are happening around the globe simultaneously. Anyone who thinks that the global economy isn’t real they should read Marshal McLuhan’s writings from the sixties that tied us into a global village. DT
Looks like gold is coming back down again. After two years I no longer get excited about these rises, they have always ended with corrections
Exactly James. We should curb our enthusiasm. Every once in awhile there will be an up day to balance the downs a little but the overall trend is undeniably lower. Nothing goes straight down as they say!
They say that, right?
James,
Remember what Sinclair said about volatility. 1000 dollar swings in gold would not be uncommon. Patience will be rewarded in spite of what bird an says. No offense meant to bird man.
None taken, Jerry. We all have strong views on the subject of gold. It is never a problem to look at both sides of the issue as far as I am concerned. If I am wrong you can be sure I will switch camps and start buying along with the rest of you.
I just don’t think it is going to happen very soon. I am a bear for now.
Oh come on you guys. These corrections always leave people holding their heads in their hands, more so when they take so long in correcting.
But let’s give a bit more credence to the big guy on this. OK his friends may have miscalculated, and they have to live with the humbling effects of their predictions. But QE remains a disaster destined to end in tears for the schemers, while gold is answerable to nobody, and the truth has to win in the end.
Or as Mike Niehuser said: ‘Gold is probably the closest thing to truth you can come to in the physical world.’
Be happy folks!
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