It is Thursday and The Doctor Is In
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We are all on a trip – on the gold train, yeah!
I just love the way that Al and the gang have conducted the show in this really disappointing and quite depressing time in our favourite markets. It’s been AAA for Al, in terms of his show and his guests and especially the balanced commentaries that he has given us. It has really helped me a great deal and I think this is the number 1 show on the internet on investing. I first heard it in 2002 and I still can’t keep away.
The move since early April looks a bit like a bear flag that has just broken out to the upside. I was drawing lines on a chart last night (wasting time as usual) and now the price has popped up over the descending line. 🙂
Also the US dollar looked like it had broken out a few weeks ago and now it has made an outside reversal to the downside twice in the last few trading days.
I think $1430 is key, being the Nov/Dec 2010 top that looked like a rolling distribution pattern at the time. Maybe that was when the weak hands came in to the market; now they should be out, hopefully.
Wholly agree with your sentiments, Silverbug Dave. Without some clarification on the matter of where gold stands right now, some of us would be going out of our minds! Andrew
I say 18-24 months is enough consolidation…………….my thoughts…..has to hold 1400, for three days in a row…….according to the JLI….this is a wonderful indicator and has served me quite well…..The JLI (jerry’s longterm indicator) may only be obtained on this station, and all contributions are forwarded to the local shorties,
Al,,,if you will stop talking the gold will go up…..lol…………..ootb
Jerry Al’s a jetsetter, he must be type “A” always on the go go! DT
DT……AL”JETSON”……
nah…but with the I-5 bridge in the drink Vancouver BC is really the only place he can go….
Trapped like a like a ………………..(fill in the blank)
I have no idea whats goin on but Ive read some articles that there is considerable scrambling behind the scenes in Europe. I have a feeling the pressure in the volcano is building.
the other al……………remember the IMF, HEAD …IS GOING TO COURT FOR EMBEZZLEMENT AND FRAUD……………this will be a problem going forward..for Uncle BEN……
Doc and Al:
People continue to amaze me. The never learn from history and they never will. The fundamentals never lie and never will. If you arent on margin – you have no problem. If that “rope” is around your neck – good luck.
marc…….we are making history ,right now………….when your grandkids, ask you,,,”WHAT DID YOU DO IN THE WAR”,(Patton movie),We will not have to say we
shoveled sh..,,,,,
BTW,
These last two days are the biggest “up days” I have had in my explorers and mid-tier producers…ummmmm, maybe just maybe……or maybe not……patience still very much needed in this market. The next big test comes when it will test your ability NOT TO GET GREEDY…but, we are a long way away from that 🙂
Marc, you’re right; we have to have patience. We have a ways to go but I strongly feel we’re in a very long term gold bull market. We’re in a situation that this country and world has never been—unlike the past we are in a fascinating global scenario where we are no longer the only kid on the block. You throw in the global aspect of this and that’s why I believe we’re in the long term bull market I mentioned.
Doc…..thanks for doing the TA, a lot of guys like it, and it allows us to stay focused
Jerry, you’re welcome. TA is objective and it keeps me from telling the market what should be happening instead of the market telling me what should happen. Fundamentally, most of us know what should be but we’re often too early in our analysis or assessment. TA does keep us focused instead of letting our biases run wild.
A big DITTO, Jerry!
No surprise. There has been a great deal of fresh interest in the miners from all corners and there is really nothing else in the stock universe that offers as much potential upside. I was wondering this morning on that count if my timing on an entry is off a little but it’s no matter really. There is plenty of opportunity available so catching the approximate bottom is good enough as far as I am concerned. If my theory of a revaluation becomes reality the upside could be utterly astonishing. I would not be selling anything I bought right now in any case unless it turned into a dog by surprise.
BIRDMAN I AGREE WITH YOU! Now you are talkin! 🙂
Hey man, I was letting my insecurity seep into to my comments! Maybe…..just maybe the technical guys are right and gold is about to make a fool of me. I hope not because I hate being wrong but if this is one of those times then I am ready to get back into the game. Great to hear you are making out well with your stocks. We have not heard much in the way of good news from anybody for awhile so it was really refreshing to read your post. Cheers!
Hi Al, about Syria, the mention of russian anti aircraft system (s-300) being an issue that could mean escalation there. I see it the other way, the 100,000 mercinaries “rebeling” in Syria and the talk of europe and the states “no fly” zone just might be the reason Syria feels they require defensive weapons.
Another funny thing, Syria is said to be the 2nd most holy ground to christians after isreal, its christians protecting that ground churches relics etc and Assad protecting those christians and christian history etc, and its us, the christian comunity that attempts to destroy those sites, with islamic allies Qatar etc. Go figure.
So, the Russians, providing defensive weaponry (protecting christians sites) (freedom of religion in Syria) that they were contracted to do long ago is our reason for escalation? I feel in time people will grow tired of being deceived.
Anyway, really enjoyed the interview, thanks again Al and Doc.
AL, DID YOU EVER HAVE ANY ONE ON YOUR SHOW FROM PASS PORT POTASH?
Al, doesn’t post much anymore, he probably has a girlfriend, I don’t know how he finds time a wife is enough for any man, at some point you just have to settle down. DT
I think it’s just the new products he is forced to sample at his favorite wine importers’, this recent “disregaurd” and “moi” spelling thing is highly suspicious…
now that is funny
I am betting he is catching up with a few old friends up in Vancouver. The World Resource Investment Conference just wrapped up on the 27th and a good percentage of the folks who are notable in the business were there. The speaker lineup was terrific actually. Wish I had been there myself but could not attend. If we are lucky Al recorded a few good interviews while he was up in those parts.
Housing Recovery?
Average home prices may have had a year over year bump this spring, but without the median and mode the read is a bit tricky. Thinking maybe the upper end is skewing the average.
Basically, the Midwest housing market remains solid primarily because they didn’t have the boom or the bust and agricultural remained stable throughout this whole fiasco.
But nation wide:
The Wall Street bailout continues as Bernanke debauches everyone’s life savings by buying $35B/mo of mortgage-backed securities from the institutions that put this fraud upon the world.
Meanwhile, the boomers are becoming empty nesters and downsizing. To that, they’re going on SS early simply because there are few job opportunities for the folks who were put on the street when the manufacturing plant shut down. (Add to that those who’ve have dropped off the unemployment tally because they quit looking. Even lumped together, very few of them are either willing or able to buy a house.
Over 56,000 domestic manufacturing facilities were shuttered since NAFTA, GATT. Those high paying jobs are gone. Unless banks bring back those lair loans, there aren’t enough buyers who can make the PITI even at these low rates. If they try those teaser rates again, we will have yet another huge collapse (bust) when those teaser rates resent to something normal. Simply put, the buy side of the market is VERY weak given the massive economic displacement of American workers that took place over the last 10-15 year; it’s that GIANT SUCKING SOUND Ross Perot predicted!!!!!!!
College graduates??? Most have $20K-50K in student debt, plus a car loan and are working for minimum wages IF they can find a job.
So who is left to buy all those houses built for (the vanishing) American middle class?
BTW
This relief rally in PM is definitely a RELIEF. Sure would be nice if gold can close the week above 1400.
BJ, the price of housing is NUTS, if the working stiff can’t afford a family home the market will correct so he can, that is so important to society. DT
DT, Can’t argue that! Agree 100%! If only the innvisible hand of the free market were allowed to play out.
But you have to wonder if Bernanke is buying ‘at market cost just before the bubble popped’ while his cronies refused to ‘mark to market’ their otherwise unsaleable inventory.
I believe there is a good chance you and I are being forced to hold up the housing prices through the backdoor of Uncle Ben’s home-buying blintz resulting in a devalued currency backed by the full faith and credit of those that lie like hell and spend like crazy. ….just saying…..
Every time a property owner pays his property tax he is making a donation to the NEA.
Why do we ask ourselves how we arrived here?
great points……BJ AND DENNIS…………I AGREE WITH YOU BOTH……..
Thanks Big Al and Doc,
Always nice to see weakness in the US dollar, thus gold and silver goes up. The world is buying the metals on sale as I am also. Too bad many will miss these low prices.
Update rec’d from newsletter: expected returns:
GDP growth for the 1st quarter was revised lower, which shouldn’t be news at this point. As I’ve said before, we are in a legitimate “recovery, although the more accurate word is that we are in remission from the collapse that began in 2007. Countertrend cycles can last years, and they are always perceived by the majority as a sustained recovery.
There will always be pauses, rallies, and corrections in any trend. The vast majority of investment professionals believe quantitative easing is the primary cause of these price movements, but I disagree. For example, with gold, bears and bulls alike make their case primarily based on quantitative easing. So if you think quantitative easing will end, you’re bearish on gold; if you think it will continue, you are bullish. This is an gross oversimplification that makes me confident most investors will be wiped out when the storm clouds arrive.
We all know quantitative easing does not work at certain times because of the Japanese experience. We also know that interest rates can’t be viewed in a vacuum, also because of the Japanese experience. What we’re seeing in the U.S. right now is similar to what happened in Japan in the 1980’s leading to the collapse in 1989: capital inflows, which were boosted by a rising currency, which supported asset prices across the board. Back then, Japan was the only major economy people were confident in. Remember, the 1980’s in the U.S. was a period of deep recessions, high interest rates, and the bottom in the stock market. It also proceeded a period of stagflation and slow economic growth. In short, it was a time of dollar and U.S. bearishness.
The roles have now reversed. Japan and Europe are in shambles, China is perceived to be a bubble, and people are even wary of Australia and Canada. The U.S. is benefiting the most from current conditions, although this won’t last. I expect bubble-like conditions to reappear in the U.S., although probably not as extreme as they were in 2007. The dollar will rise, stocks will rise, real estate will rise, and consumer spending will rise. Confidence will be high, which will set us up perfectly for a collapse that no one sees coming. As Yogi Berra said, “it’s deja vu all over again.”
This is the wait and see period. Stocks can easily rally another year or so, but I generally think there are better plays out there. The true home run trades will emerge, and I don’t think they’ll be in stocks like Apple or Facebook.
Disclaimer: 1. This newsletter is for informational purposes only. I am not a registered investment advisor and I am not responsible for any actions taken by subscribers.
I love Gold
I like Platinum
Silver is OK
What’s your likes, loves and OK’s,
I love Gold——–RGLD gold with a little nickle
I like Platinum——COLUF gold with a lot of Pt and Pd and Rhodium….plus more
Silver is OK———AG w Del Toro or buy SLW anytime it trades below spot silver!
I love gold…. on the toes of my cowboy boots
I like Platinum….as a hood ornament on my grey lady
Silver is OK…………..on my silver covered tooth pick……
…Peer review is the pocress by which millions of dollars of government money are handed out to researchers in medicine and the physical sciences.This is not what peer review is defined as I understand. I think Jerry is confused between government funded research and the pocress of selecting articles regarded as high quality to be published by a (private) publisher, ie, the reviewing pocress is carried out by a selected group of outstanding peers and expertise in that domain, be it Physics, Economics, Medicines, and so on. One such private publisher, ie, a non-government one is , which they publish journals in almost every branch of academics, Physics, Economics, Finance, Health/Medicine, Computing, Engineering and so forth. I haven’t counted but a rough guess put it at perhaps over thousands different journals (based on the numbers shown on the link cited above for journal names under A only). Any peer reader here on this thread can review my guess and correct me if I am wrong.Jerry said…Peer review, a “blind” pocress in which the names of author and evaluator are concealed from each other, requires two or three so-called peers to read a paper or proposal to judge the quality of actual or proposed research before acceptance.Now Jerry defines peer review pocress correctly here, which he didn’t in his first attempt (I highlighted that in my first paragraph). Now, I would like to point out that Jerry is wrong to state that reviewers are being concealed. Perhaps in the 1960s , 1970s, etc, but today in the age of internet, as far as I know, the reviewing panels are not concealed at all. Their names are known to potential authors out there who want to submit a paper for possible publication. For example, Elsevier has a journal called , which listed all the names of the reviewers. Just click on the link and see it for yourself. I believe that all the thousands other Elsevier journals do the same by listing the names of the reviewers.
It’s imtaieprve that more people make this exact point.
Gold seems to spike around 9pm eastern time once it is in bullish mode. It just hit 1419. I should have gone all in yesterday instead of 60% in. I wait for any dips to add more gdxj.
GDXJ performing nicely too although there still looks to be a chance it will pull back again. We will know soon enough just how bullish the chart gets.
Al, you are always on a trip………….