Pundit's Perspectives – Tue 11 Jun, 2013

Gary Savage discusses his views on the bond markets

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Featuring:
Gary Savage

Comments:
  1. On June 11, 2013 at 4:08 pm,
    Tiho says:

    Gary Gary Gary.

    You owe me a few hundred burritos.

    • On June 11, 2013 at 6:31 pm,
      gary says:

      On the contrary I owe you one for gold dropping below $1523. You owe me one for stocks breaking to new highs. We’re even 🙂

    • On June 17, 2013 at 1:54 am,
      clarkatroid says:

      speaking as a past subscriber I would urge people to run a mile from Gary savage. he comes across as rude and arrogant as person and totallyreckless as an investor(think leverage with no stops). over the last 2 years he has decimated the portfolios of anyone who listened to him.

      his last investment before I left was to invest 40% of his net worth In slv options that have currently lost 90% of their value yet he is talking about the dangers of leverage? lol

      avoid avoid avoid !!!!!!!

  2. On June 11, 2013 at 4:33 pm,
    Keep Stacking says:

    Thanks Big Al and Gary for your information.

  3. On June 11, 2013 at 6:39 pm,
    Jay says:

    He owe’s all his subscribers (inclucing former subscribers) hundreds of thousands of burritos!

    • On June 11, 2013 at 8:12 pm,
      gary says:

      What you think I’m supposed to be able to predict manipulation?

      • On June 16, 2013 at 9:32 am,
        JoeH says:

        Hey, loser (Gary), you need not be able to ‘predict’ manipulation, you need to formulate a trade than allows for it not going your way. Gary Savage you re nothing but a total fraud and I think all of your past sub’s should get together and sue your sorry arse. Whether they could win or not is beside the point. They need to get the light shone upon a fraud and make sure he spends his time and money defending himself. BTW folks, when a guy removes his horribly underwater portfolio from public purview, even he is admitting to himself if no-one else that he’ll never get back to even and that he is hopelessly screwed.

        I called this fraud to never get back to even well over a year ago because it’s only too obvious that he has no better chance of making money in the market than a random dart toss.
        It was easy to see because of how sure he always was of himself, and how he never made ANY allowances for being wrong (IE hedging etc). Then he removes his portfolio, lies about how it “would have been doing now” and then makes excuses about his OWN poor performance by throwing out red herrings like “manipulation” being the cause.

        No, I’m sorry, Loser. The cause is, was and always will be, your own fault.

        He’s a fraud people. What is it that you can’t plainly see? I told you ALL straight up, repeatedly no Gary free blog (until I was removed from posting) that this guy was BAD BAD BAD for you in every conceivable way possible.

        Gary Savage has ALL the earmarks of a BAD TRADER. It was right there, plain as day, and now you’re left to pick up the pieces of a totally ruined portfolio. I can only hope most of you are young enough to start over and just as important, never get screwed by this or any other FRAUD again.

        I did all I could to warn you before hand.

        • On June 16, 2013 at 3:34 pm,
          Jay says:

          You’re absolutely correct. You called that Gary would eventually underperform the INTEREST RATE on plain old T-Bills when his port was flying high, and you nailed it! He gave up all his gains and more. All those stomach-churning attempts at hopping in and out of the market with surgical precision amounted to nothing but pain and aggravation. His subscribers would have been better off in plain-old cash!

    • On July 10, 2013 at 5:39 am,
      Rusty Brown in Canada says:

      owe’s?

      They’re putting apostrophes in verbs now? Good grief!

  4. On June 11, 2013 at 8:22 pm,
    gary says:

    For the record I told everyone to exit precious metals on January 24th when the miners began to break down out of the consolidation pattern. At that point we were basically back to even after the big run up from the summer 2012 bottom.

    I’ll say it again for the thousandth time. You can’t use massive leverage and stay solvent. If you do you are going to lose everything. You will do it even if you get direction right, because you can’t hold through the normal market wiggles.

  5. On June 11, 2013 at 8:29 pm,
    mike says:

    The mobs will chase you with pitchforks one day

  6. On June 12, 2013 at 4:13 am,
    Lex says:

    Gary, people blame manipulation for their poor performance. Don’t lie and say you’re back to even. I was your subscriber in December and you were “at even” then. Since that time you have tried to go long miners several times. Own your mistakes, try to learn from them. Otherwise Mike may be right, get ready for mobs of angry investors…..

  7. On June 12, 2013 at 5:19 am,
    mike says:

    When all else fails, blame the boogie man for playing with the market and manipulating the price

  8. On June 12, 2013 at 5:53 am,
    gary says:

    Lex,
    My exact post on Oct. 5th

    “Because the currency markets are becoming extremely volatile I’m going to give everyone a new strategy for holding our current position with limited risk through an intermediate degree decline just in case we get caught. The first part of the strategy is to exit all three positions.

    Next use 6% of your total capital to buy March 2013 54 call options on GDX. I’m going to ignore the Delta on these options and just consider the number of shares controlled which will be roughly equal to our 75% position that we just exited. As an example if one had a $100,000 account and 70% of it was invested in mining shares you would own 1312 shares of GDX. You can control those same 1300 shares by purchasing 13 March 54 call options at the current ask which is $440 per contract. So for $5720 you can control the same amount of shares as you were owning a 70% position in GDX, GDXJ, and SIL.

    Again let me stress that you have to follow this strategy exactly. Absolutely no more than 6% of your total portfolio goes into this trade.

    This strategy will allow us to catch another leg up if it were to occur. Our call options will go deep into the money and we will profit roughly the same as if we were still owning a 25% position in each of the three mining ETF’s.

    On the other hand if gold and miners start to move down into an intermediate degree decline the most we can lose is 6% of our total portfolio.”

    At that time we were up 20% in the model portfolio.

  9. On June 12, 2013 at 5:57 am,
    gary says:

    My exact post on Jan. 24th

    “I think I’ve had enough. For what ever reason liquidity from QE4 is being prevented from flowing into the metals for now. I

    don’t think it can last forever but it’s certainly been successful for the last two months. (I’m wondering if this has something to do with Germany repatriating

    their gold.)

    The miners are acting like gold is going to generate another left translated cycle. If that happens then it could be 4-6 weeks before another ICL.

    I”ll hold the LEAPS and there’s no sense selling the GDX calls, but everything else gets jettisoned until I see a rising intermediate cycle.

    The stock market is too overbought and in the timing band for a half cycle low so I’m not keen to jump on that bandwagon right now.

    I’ll just sit in cash except for the LEAPS until something convinces me the secular trend is ready to resume.”

    At that point we were back to even in the model portfolio. I clearly told everyone multiple times that a 10% position in LEAP’s was my recommended allocation. If the market went you you had plenty of upside potential. If the bull was dead then you only had 10% at risk.

    Keep in mind that we were back to even after making 100% or more on the silver rally from 2010 to 2011. So even though we haven’t manage to make anything over the last couple of years we are still up big from three years ago.

  10. On June 12, 2013 at 6:02 am,
    gary says:

    On the topic of manipulation. I’m not a fan of the whole conspiracy theory nonsense. Sure there is short term manipulation around options expiration and such. It happens in all markets.

    But after QE4 and after the stop run below $1523 it created shortages in the physical market. That just can’t happen in a freely traded market. Price will automatically adjust to prevent it. The fact that we did see shortages in April and even into May is proven that the market wasn’t trading freely. If it was then the sell off would not have caused shortages.

  11. On June 12, 2013 at 6:54 am,
    Lex says:

    Gary, I’m not here to put you down. However, it is easy to cut and past a couple of quotes and continently leave out numerous wrong calls. I’ve lost money in miners too, but I don’t pretend to give advice or charge for it. If you want to prove your record make a model portfolio. When I was on your service I also remember you deleted your model portfolio. That is the ultimate tell. I really do wish you the best in your trading, but don’t make false statements about your success. Want to prove it- make a model portfolio.

  12. On June 12, 2013 at 7:17 am,
    gary says:

    Lex,
    I clearly stated we haven’t made anything over the last couple of years. I said when gold topped in 2011 that it was going to get much harder to make money. Despite that we managed to produce a respectable 20% in a very choppy sideways market until QE4 was announced and the manipulation began.

    I readily admit that none of my tools are working in this environment. That’s why I recommended just buying a 10% position in LEAP’s and to quit trying to trade. This thing is just whipsawing traders to pieces.

  13. On June 12, 2013 at 1:16 pm,
    Bobby says:

    So here’s the problem Gary, you’ve had consistently wrong calls on Gold, and do you want to know why? QE4 has nothing to do with PM prices, or inflation for that matter (if inflation effected gold, why didn’t gold rise from the 1980s to 2000 while inflation was rising?).

    International capital flows are buying up US equities and USD. the USD won’t crash until the euro before it. that simple.

  14. On June 12, 2013 at 2:09 pm,
    Pibe says:

    Pibe says:

    Here goes again. Ihope everybody realizes that GARY SAVAGE is an impostor and a mercenary that only cares about raping people off by selling nonrefundable subscriptions

    On June 6, 2013 at 8:30 am,
    Sean says:

    Guys, be careful with this so called Guru-Gary-Savage. He lost the shirts of his subscribers in the last 6 months. Spent some time to dig out his previous posts at http://smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/

    1) When he has a hot hand 2 years ago, he used to labeled himself as Best-Hedge-Fund-Beating record.
    2) And he ridiculed anyone that think Gold/Silver market is manipulated. He said Market Supply/Demand + Mother Nature will only squash any manipulation and will only result in higher Gold bull.

    Now he lost his subscribers base immensely, and looking for new blood to feed on. And he now actively promoting that Gold got beaten is ALL due to MANIPULATION!!!

    Phew. Run away from hypocrite Gary.
    Reply to this comment
    On June 6, 2013 at 3:04 pm,
    Pebete says:

    I can just talk as an ex-subscriber and I am going to repeat myself here: Why do you keep paying attention to this guy Gary? (horrible investment advice and record, lost money for all his subscribers, awful timing). Seriously Why? Every time he predicts something the opposite happens. GARY CONSISTENTLY LOSES MONEY FOR HIS SUBSCRIBERS – DO NOT EVEN ATTEMPT TO FOLLOW WHAT HE RECOMMENDS BECAUSE YOU WILL LOSE MONEY. This guy is dangerous since he is not only losing money; he is also inexperienced, in denial and arrogant. You know what he told me when I started questioning him more than one year ago? That my comments were too negative and that he would start using them as a contrarian indicator! Nice way to treat a subscriber eh? That was more than a year ago! When the HUI was around 450. That’s why he had to close the comments section in the “unpaid” portion of his website –because people were complaining too much- and now he is calling us “trolls”. This guy deserves to be taken to court!!
    Reply to this comment
    On June 6, 2013 at 4:06 pm,
    Mark says:

    Pebete, he was long the HUI well before 450. Kept saying we are in a new A wave, then a C wave, all the while, positioned in the worst place possible. A blood bath.
    Reply to this comment

    Reply to this comment

    On June 6, 2013 at 11:09 pm,
    Blake says:

    Pibe,
    I have been a subscriber of Gary’s during the period you are referring to and your rant is wrong in so many ways but I have better things to do than spend any more time on it.

    Reply to this comment

    On June 7, 2013 at 3:11 am,
    Pibe says:

    Don’t worry Blake I have time for answering your comments,

    I have been following Gary for more than 2 years (not just one) and I can tell you with TOTAL certainty that this so called GURU is nothing but a delusional mercenary gambler that is solely concerned about getting money from subscribers and proving himself right. This guy is so full of himself and arrogant that it is pathological. Now he is so desperately trying to prove himself right again (after losing most of his subscribers) that he is predicting $ 1,900.00 gold by this Fall. Just wait and see. But don’t worry he will find some kind of excuse to justify why gold did not make it to 1,900.00 -a right or left translated cycle maybe? Manipulation? a tornado? He is -once again- proving that he is nothing but a narcissistic gambler.

    Reply to this comment

    On June 7, 2013 at 4:47 am,
    JERRY the Long………………O^OTB says:

    Pibe…..thanks…for taking the time….that is what I call sharing,,,,and that is what this site is about….for we all do not have the same experiences, but, try to assist each other the best way we can………….SHARING IS CARING…………..OOTB

    Reply to this comment

    On June 7, 2013 at 4:50 am,
    JERRY the Long………………O^OTB says:

    Oh,,,,,also,,,,be prepared to back it up………As Ronnie Reagan said….”TRUST BUT VERIFY.”…………have a great day……………….ootb

    Reply to this comment

    On June 7, 2013 at 8:16 am,
    impeachknucklehead says:

    Here’s the secret recipe for knocking on $1900 gold this fall: You buy some “safe from confiscation” 19th century numismatic gold coin at about $6789, safely store it in the underground tuna can bunker, and just before selling it for $1900 this fall, you carefully knock with your knuckles.

    Reply to this comment

    On June 7, 2013 at 11:10 am,
    JERRY the Long………………O^OTB says:

    impeach….did you get a new moniker…………..?

    Reply to this comment

    On June 7, 2013 at 12:48 pm,
    impeach says:

    Yeah, I somehow wasn’t prescient enough to save it for Al’s entry on Mister Holder, though.

    On June 7, 2013 at 3:26 pm,
    JERRY the Long………………O^OTB says:

    I think you should use it again…..it is kind of funny…..I like it……..

    On June 6, 2013 at 11:32 pm,
    Jason says:

    Not sure why anybody would invite Gary S. for an interview. Shouldn’t he be invited due to an above average track record? His performance as a forecaster is worse than poor. And yes, Pibe is sadly correct with what he is saying. And Blake, not sure what you think your time is worth spending on, but assuming you’re spending it on following Gary’s forecasts, you’re tragically wasting it. I predicted in 2011 that Gary’s blog would take the same course as the blogs of other self proclaimed know-it-all did before; and that is exactly what happened. His blog went from lively to no comments allowed to the final stage of hardly any blog posts. He’s a one trick pony who capitalized on what used to be an obvious bull market in gold; but now his trick is toast.

    Reply to this comment

    On June 7, 2013 at 5:23 am,
    JERRY the Long………………O^OTB says:

    Jason….. being a one trick pony..does that mean…HE IS NOT A” HOT SHOD.” anymore………….ootb

    Reply to this comment

    On June 7, 2013 at 4:25 am,
    Bobby says:

    I too have difficulty with the “cycle” forecasting. Facts show that the US dollar is the go to safe haven play, whether or not we goldbugs believe it. I would like to hear some defense from All as to why this guest was chosen given the above stated track record. Are we just seeking “sunshine on a cloudy day”?

    Reply to this comment

    On June 7, 2013 at 6:54 am,
    benb says:

    I think Al and Gary got together somehoiw and Al presents Gary as an opinion to be considered, which is the same as the other TA guys.
    There is also the opinion here that TA is pointless as the market is manipulated.
    But Al pretty much encorages everyones opinion.
    I dont think I would consider any opinion a “rubber band” bet,(wish I had more than once) but I have seen some pretty acurate stuff.

    Reply to this comment

    On June 7, 2013 at 8:19 am,
    BJ says:

    TA highlights where and when the manipulators enter the market; it paints a picture of the manipulation. However the the manipulators use TA to calculate how much intervention is necessary to trip sell stops. So there is knowledge to be gained and profits to be had by reading the technical the major players and market manipulators paint into the charts. The wild card is the randomness and caprice of these scoundrels. In a truly free market, TA would be of more use as a market predictor. Nor can fundamentals predict where and when the manipulators enter the market.

    What honest investor would’ve ever predicted the audacity of the Fed and its Wall Street cronies. Who could’ve ever predicted the scope of the criminal activity then and ongoing, specifically fraud and institutionalized insider trading.

    Since none of that is going to change any time soon, the only worthwhile debate is if fundamentals can overcome what’s being put upon the world by those who enjoy prosecution immunity because they’re too big to fail. Frankly I don’t think they’re too big to fail; they’re just too powerful to be controlled. They control our government–it’s called fascism.

    Reply to this comment

    On June 7, 2013 at 9:00 am,
    benb says:

    I agree 100% BJ.
    Personally I am hopeing the internet shows “akmed the baker” and “joe six pack” that it is not they that want this corruption and war, that all of us pay the price of these psychopaths.

    Reply to this comment

    On June 7, 2013 at 11:17 am,
    JERRY the Long………………O^OTB says:

    BJ…..I also, have to agree on the govt. and fascism…..,but, sooner or later, they get their just rewards………..As, one other person said…..there are approximately 5000 of these idiots out their and the universe is beginning to get very small…..as the Russians have now defected , and the scheme may be out in the open…..sooner or later Johnnie Six Pack, is not going to take it any more……..People are starting to wake up……

    Reply to this comment

    On June 7, 2013 at 8:22 am,
    Roger Ramjet says:

    I as well am a “ex subscriber” after listening / reading absolutely non sense from this guy for months. His analysis has been 100% in “la la land” for nearly a year, making mistakes at nearly every single turn – and advising his plebs to purchase “options” that continue to expire worthless. I seriously can’t imagine how much money he’s lost hid current subscribers.

    For a time a fellow “Forex Kong”challenged his views and provided some hope, but he was kicked out of the subscriber base….as his calls / remarks where completely opposite this Gary idiot – and bang on week after week.

    Reply to this comment

    On June 7, 2013 at 8:51 am,
    Mark says:

    I am also a former subscriber getting in at just the right moment to lose big because Gary has become delusional, and I bought into his delusions. My fault though, not his. I was naive and used Gary’s confidence to excuse my stupidity in following him.

    Reply to this comment

    On June 7, 2013 at 9:02 am,
    jhpace1 says:

    Nobody can be expected to be “right” or “wrong” in technical analysis as long as the market is manipulated. It’s like having a doctor watching a video of a man walking along the street, dodging the occasional pedestrian or lamppost, while an EKG is shown. Unbeknownst to the doctor, the EKG is really that of a beyond-his-time prize fighter fighting his last fight in the ring ending with a TKO. Nothing the doctor sees will match the EKG! And that is how I feel about this market and technical analysis.

    Reply to this comment

    On June 7, 2013 at 9:53 am,
    Pibe says:

    jhpace1: “Nobody can be expected to be “right” or “wrong” in technical analysis as long as the market is manipulated.” We are not talking about being wrong or right. We are talking about a delusional narcissistic mercenary that only cares about getting money from subscribers and he never admits that he screwed up big time!! Gary: Just be honest and admit that you suck at what you do, be humble and refund the money to your subscribers!! And getting back to your doctor example: Would you sue a doctor for malpractice? I guess the answer is Yes!

    Reply to this comment

    On June 7, 2013 at 10:42 am,
    Roger Ramjet says:

    Another golden example of brilliance from this guy – he posts “this link” from his home site! A link with literally post after post after post after post of “ex -subscribers views of this moron.

    That’s what I call brilliant – a direct link from your main page to a blog /comment roll that reads like a horror film.

    Reply to this comment

    On June 7, 2013 at 5:55 pm,
    Fred says:

    Al Korelin – retired old fogie who walks around with 2 open wine bottles 24/7 kissing anyones feet who tells him that gold and silver are going up, up and away. He’s not the brightest bulb on the tree, he’s not the prettiest baby in the nursery, he’s just… uh….uh….uh…. he’s just Al.
    Trader Rog – guy who has never gotten one gold and silver call right and has no idea what time of day it is except when its time to play with his little poodle. I feel sorry for that poodle, I really do.
    gary savage – his brain is caught in a permanent washing machine ‘cycle’ and doesn’t know which cycle its in let alone the cycle for gold and silver. Arrogant little prick whose a blood sucking savage beast parasite for subscriber fees.
    Doc – sounds like he raided the pharmacy and took one too many meds to try and forget about all his bad trades on gold and silver. The doc needs a nurse real bad. Better yet, a night with a hooker to get Doc’s blood flowing once again.

    Reply to this comment

    On June 7, 2013 at 10:44 pm,
    Jay says:

    I agree that Gary is a terrible trader. His subscribers got SLAMMED in 2012/2013. He claimed he could easily generate 20% returns with his Model Port, but eventually had to replace it with an “Old Turkey” (Buy and Hold) version after the port got hit with huge drawdowns. His predictions are no better than wild dart tosses. His risk managment is nonexistent. He lifts stops, and doesn’t like to hedge…and when he does hedge it’s usually near a bottom with a double-inverse ETF. He also pulled a stunt where he lost 5% of his capital by going long TVIX 10% position and it got cut in half. He bought SLV and GDX calls last year, and this year, and those are getting slammed at well. He’s good for entertainment only. He’s very arrogant, and his newsletter is mainly good for comedy value only. He also bans subscribers who point out Gary’s poor performance and his mistakes.

    Reply to this comment

    On June 8, 2013 at 1:39 am,
    BrutusMaximum says:

    I have been a former subscriber as well and can verify the poor timing and track record that Gary had. Nobody is perfect but when he started to compare himself on a risk adjusted basis to top hedge funds with billions under management he lost all credibility with me. Many of his predictions, just like my own will come true at some point but for trading or investing purposes useless. What is the point when your timing is off by a couple of month , no risk management however sophisticated will make up for that. He has unfortunately nothing to show for with regards to performance for 2012 and 2013 YTD. If he had, I would show it to the world on my blog for everyone to see but since many of his calls are open to extreme interpretations with regards to actual trading or execution, to publish a performance track record is nearly impossible. I can understand why so many subscribers left him and feel betrayed

    Reply to this comment

    On June 8, 2013 at 7:18 am,
    sucker says:

    i have read garys blogs for the better part of 9 months and almost every thing that is posted goes the other way.i dont know how you can call your self an expert and be so wrong all of the time.I now feel like i have missed genuine opportunities in equities.I really hope garys thoughts pan out,but I have my doubts.

    Reply to this comment

    On June 8, 2013 at 1:14 pm,
    Joe Sue says:

    Please don’t knock Gary. I use him as a contrary indicator. Long US Dollar, stocks, short gold. He has made me a mint!

    Go Gary! I would gladly pay $1000 a day for his recs. to fade.

    Reply to this comment

    On June 8, 2013 at 1:53 pm,
    Mark Alan says:

    LOL!! Now THAT is a great example of how to turn a lemon into lemonade! Great Job Joe Sue! Finding the silver lining in a dark cloud is better than fighting against the storm.

    Reply to this comment

    On June 8, 2013 at 5:25 pm,
    john says:

    i disagree. gold charts indicate that the sentiments are heading lower.
    furthermore, the US economy is getting better.
    india’s currency is in trouble and will affect much of physical purchases in india.
    meanwhile, in china ppl will watch the gold charts.

    Reply to this comment

    On June 9, 2013 at 6:08 am,
    Tiho says:

    LOL gary is a joke. This dude has no shame. He is destroying his readers’ accounts. Does he not feel guilty spewing his stupidity and charging for it. What a con man. Plus he was mean to Toby.

    So funny, Gary bottom ticked the market with his “CRASH’ comments. Great job Gar-gar. Go climb a rock and lift some weights, you degenerate, scum.

    Reply to this comment

    On June 9, 2013 at 10:04 am,
    Pibe says:

    Hey Tiho!

    Welcome again to the family intervention to restore Gary’s to sanity. The problem with him is not that he is delusional and in denial but also so full of himself. The problem is not that this poor thing is still trying to prove himself right so he can restore his mental sanity. The problem is not that he was ripping off people’s money and giving ill investment advice and charging for it. The problem is not even never admitting that his analysis is just pure bullshit based on building castles in the air and portraying wishful thinking as serious technical analysis. Not to mention his arrogance based on the fact that he has good selling skills and he was able to persuade lots of people that he knew what he was doing. The real problem is that we bought his castles in the air and we even paid for it! So long story short: when you follow delusional people and you even pay them to get into their delusional world you feel like a moron; that’s the real problem.

    Reply to this comment

    On June 9, 2013 at 7:59 am,
    Roger Ramjet says:

    I still can’t beleive this guy has this page linked directly from his home page, as any new or “potencially” new customer is directed to these comments.

    It’s obvious that he’s given up – as who in their right mind could allow this to continue another minute – let alone another day.

    Those poor subscribers that are still holding on.

    Reply to this comment

    On June 9, 2013 at 8:54 am,
    john says:

    i listened to this below Solid interview yesterday.
    learn from this mark guy!
    http://thedailygold.com/twim-2a-mark-leibovit-on-precious-metals/

    and good luck !

    Reply to this comment

    On June 9, 2013 at 10:42 am,
    Pibe says:

    Sounds good. Good interview!

    Reply to this comment

    On June 9, 2013 at 9:13 am,
    Price Maker says:

    The only show in town is Forex Kong at http://www.forexkong.com

    Reply to this comment

    On June 9, 2013 at 10:19 am,
    Pibe says:

    Price Maker,

    That article you mentioned is just another “hope” for gold bugs. I believe that gold will shine again but (I believe) that new highs will happen in 4 to 5 years (silver included). There are still a lot of gold bugs hoping for higher prices in gold and silver and they will have to give up before the bull market resumes -that’s just how markets work-. So – I have been saying this for years now; since I bought all of my gold below $900. Just store your gold and wait; there is no rush. The only time when I really screwed it up was when I was following delusional Gary; other than that my investment is still sound. Tiho has good free serious technical and financial analysis; Armstrong Economics has some serious economic and cycles analysis (This guy has been around forever). Take a look at what he says about the macro economics and how the dollar is still rallying due to being the only reasonable game in town – It makes totally sense from the macro economic point of view- Long story short: Dollar is rallying, gold is still in correction mode; we are NOT going to see $ 1900 gold this fall and Gary needs to be hospitalized.

    Reply to this comment

    On June 10, 2013 at 12:33 pm,
    Basil says:

    The worst is not that Gary is shamelessly delusional about his own understanding of the markets and skills as a trader. What’s way more sad, however, is that he was idolized by his subservient blog followers for exactly the bullshit he kept putting out.
    He IS the proverbial dumb money and he is tracking his own dumb ideas.

    Reply to this comment

    On June 11, 2013 at 2:24 pm,
    Ben says:

    On May 27th, Gary wrote in his blog, “…Yet despite thousands of years of evidence that parabolas are never sustainable”

    WHERE is he getting “thousands” of years of market data? That, my friends, is either a typo, or a true delusion.

    I am a former subscriber, too — 1 year. I was amazed at how much trading he did, and how people were sleeping with their phones to get the tweet to “get out now!” I argued with him several times about his “get out now!” post about equities, which since then have gone up about 30%.

    http://smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/2011/03/get-out.html

    Check this out: http://smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/2011/12/gold-is-on-verge-of-moving-into-bubble.html

    that was over 18 months ago.

    Dollar teetering on the abyss: http://smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/2011/11/we-all-better-hope-im-wrong-on-this-one.html

    He always argued that ‘cycles never fail’ — this is true, you can always look backwards and assign the cycles so it works out. What he doesn’t tell you is that cycles have no predictive value. It’s only after “rephasing” that cycles appear to show any predictive value, and the rephasing is because “they didn’t do what we expected” etc.

    I surely hope it all works out for his current subscribers, but frankly, I did far better before I subscribed to his service. He always sounds so cocksure but really throwing darts is about apt.

  15. On June 12, 2013 at 2:14 pm,
    Mike says:

    Gary, why you never admit that you really suck at what you do? Stop excusing yourself and get a real job! You should be ashamed for stealing money from your subscribers!

  16. On June 12, 2013 at 5:58 pm,
    Gary says:

    I still think gold is in a secular bull market. As such it has should have another leg up. Yes we are taking a draw down right now. The same as Jim Rogers.

    I have to say it is going to be incredibly satisfying to say I told you so when the next leg up begins and we double or triple our portfolio again like we did in 2010.

  17. On June 12, 2013 at 6:03 pm,
    Gary says:

    BTW during that period there was only two hedge funds in the world that outperfomed the SMT. During most of the two years that miners have been in a bear market and gold in the extended consolidation the SMT was up 20%. That isn’t even up for debate. It was calculated by an independent CPA.

    It was only after the QE4 manipulation began that our trading tools broke down.

    I posted early the real time signal I gave on Jan. 24th to exit. At that point the model portfolio was back to even from the draw down on positions entered in Oct.

    If measured from the 2010 bottom anyone following the SMT is sitting on double or triple digit gains and waiting patiently with a 10% position in 2014 or 2015 LEAP’s for the trend to reverse and the bull to resume.

    Those are the cold hard facts.

    • On June 12, 2013 at 9:47 pm,
      Robert says:

      “cold hard facts”? You only care about making money out of you so called advice. It is very difficult to get it so wrong all the time! As an ex subscriber I would not recommend your services to my worst enemy!!! You are a liar and a loser man!!!

  18. On June 12, 2013 at 6:55 pm,
    gary says:

    One has to admit I played the regular markets perfectly. When the perma bears were calling a top back in October and November, I warned that we were entering the euphoria phase of the bull market. http://www.smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/2012/12/euphoria-stage.html

    Now I think that euphoria phase is probably coming to an end.

  19. On June 12, 2013 at 8:38 pm,
    jerry says:

    Gary you did not make any money off the stock market you also been predicting the gold bubble phase for about two years, you been losing money for about two years, that the cold hard facts

  20. On June 13, 2013 at 5:27 am,
    gary says:

    I went back and calculated actual results. Remember we had triple digit returns during 2010 and 2011. Up until the QE4 announcement the model portfolio was up 20 %. We the QE4 the manipulation began we lost 6% on March GDX call options. 9.75% on mining positions, and we are currently down about 90% on a 10% position in 2014 SLV calls but still have 31 weeks for that trade to work.

    So in all actuality the model portfolio has lost the 20% gains and an additional about 5% off a 100% + gain over the last three years.

    Sure taking a draw down of 5% is frustrating after having such a good performance, but hardly the end of the world.

    Now if one happened to joined right as the QE manipulation began they yes you have only suffered the draw down with none of the earlier benefits.

    The mistake I made was assuming QE 3 & 4 would flow into all markets evenly. Precious metals being more volatile would presumably deliver better returns than stocks even though I was confident stocks were entering the euphoria phase.

    I didn’t count on the manipulation preventing liquidity from flowing into the metals. I underestimated the lengths that Germany and China would go to after the Fed announced QE 4 to drain our physical gold from west to east.

    I think that has mostly run it’s course now and we should get a final yearly cycle low soon if we didn’t already form it on April 16.

  21. On June 13, 2013 at 5:35 am,
    gary says:

    All that being said I think gold bugs need to be mentally prepared for another hit to gold as we move into the FOMC meeting. The bears are probably going to try and take out the April 16th low over the next week.

    I advised subscribers to either hedge or go to cash for the next several days until we get past that meeting.

    • On June 13, 2013 at 2:05 pm,
      Mike says:

      Sorry Gary you have no authority, experience, credentials or acceptable past record to advice anybody. Who cares what you advice; you are full of c…and most of the time wrong. Stop pretending that you are an expert you are just full of balony.

  22. On June 13, 2013 at 5:55 am,
    hpepper says:

    Gary, you never bought equities, so that is not a perfect job with the regular markets. You lost a lot of money on miners, so that is not even. I have made a lot of money by fading you. Everyone can charge subscriber fees. If you want to learn to be a good trader, you have to admit your losses and mistakes and learn risk management. No good trader insists he did a perfect job and quotes his posts about how right he was. Trading 101.

  23. On June 13, 2013 at 6:40 am,
    hpepper says:

    Gary, subscribers are not upset because you’re a bad trader. Subscribers are upset because you claim to be great. Look at your posts here. You still refuse to honestly admit your actual losses. Stop hiding your model portfolio and covering up your mistakes. You have to honestly show your losses and apologize for being rude to your subscribers.

  24. On June 13, 2013 at 7:15 am,
    JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

    AM I MISSING ANYTHING HERE……….MOST of the above BLOGGERS ARE NEW TO THE SITE…………..I have no skin in this game……I just see it as….well,,,,interesting….

    BIG AL……WHAT SAY YE………………..O^P ning up a can of worms?

    • On June 13, 2013 at 2:10 pm,
      Mike says:

      Jerry, people are using this blog to complain about Gary, most of us ex subscribers because he is a pathological liar and terrible trader and he had to close the comments in his own website due to numerous complaints. This guy is a thief and a fraud. I hope i am answering your question.

  25. On June 13, 2013 at 7:23 am,
    hpepper says:

    PS Gary, you must have lost far more money than I thought, since you blame manipulation. April gold plummet was not manipulation. Algos were programmed to sell at the start of April because of the end of the gold supercycle. You claim to know cycles, but you don’t understand cycles at all.

  26. On June 13, 2013 at 8:25 am,
    jerry says:

    Gary you are clueless, many traders(including myself) had gains of 200 percent or better in one particular year, that doesn’t make me a great trader. What makes a great trader is one who can gain 10 to 20 percent year in and year out.

  27. On June 14, 2013 at 1:27 am,
    Tiho says:

    OMG the great Gary savage. Wow guys only a 5% drawdown. I am seriously speechless, this guy has not only destroyed his account but that of his readers and now claims to have played the market perfectly. His cycles which missed this historic stock rally and gold bear are simply him talking out of his ass and I guess Al loves the air coming out of Gary’s ass.

  28. On June 14, 2013 at 8:40 am,
    hpepper says:

    Gary recommended shorting gold a few weeks ago. The safe time to short gold was a few months ago or on the bounce, not now. All cycle traders sold gold all at the same time at the start of April. Traders like Gary who don’t use cycles at all were blindsided. No tool works all of the time, and charts and TA didn’t work in April. Only cycles worked in April. Now Gary blames manipulation. A large decline is nothing more than many traders all selling at the same time. Gary blames manipulation, because he cannot admit that he knows nothing about cycles. If Gary could admit that he knows nothing about cycles, then he could see why all cycle traders sold gold all at the same time in April, and why that would cause such a large gold decline. Gary should take responsibility, and admit that he was blindsided in April because he knows nothing about cycles. TA and chart traders could not have seen the April gold decline, so that was not their fault. Only cyclists could have seen it. Gary does not know either cycles or TA, so no surprise that he was blindsided.

  29. On June 14, 2013 at 8:46 am,
    Pibe says:

    Yes Tiho, I am still surprised that Gary Savage still has people following him but hey who am I to say that? I was one of those suckers too! but I am still learning from my mistakes Seriously after reading his responses and excuses I still don’t know if this guy should be hospitalized, in jail or both. Oh well live and learn.

  30. On June 14, 2013 at 1:09 pm,
    hpepper says:

    Gary is a manipulative con man. A lot of traders are shocked at how Gary can live with himself. Con men don’t feel any remorse or have a human conscience. Even the most greedy horrible bankers stop taking any fees with losses. Even the most greedy bankers think that’s too greedy. They don’t feel remorse, but they admit they have huge losses and stop taking any fees. At least that’s human. Gary keeps taking subscriber fees, because he thinks he deserves it.

    • On June 14, 2013 at 1:39 pm,
      Pibe says:

      mmmmmm sounds like narcissistic personality with antisocial traits. Oh well I feel sorry for the current subscribers that are still following him.

  31. On June 15, 2013 at 8:06 am,
    jerry says:

    Don’t worry guys gary give all his money to charity, he going to win the noble peace prize, Gary Savage Is a crook.

  32. On June 15, 2013 at 8:52 pm,
    Pibe says:

    Wow Gary is offering free reports in his desperation to recruit new subscribers; why should anybody who already knows how bad Gary’s advice is would ask for a free report? Gary: You do not get it!!! Your reports are not only useless but misleading; Thanks but no Thanks Not even for free!!!

  33. On June 16, 2013 at 9:27 am,
    Jay says:

    There is no way that Gary got the majority of his subscribers “back to even” His subscribers got SLAMMED in 2012 and 2013. If he got them back to even, he wouldn’t have taken the Performance Spreadsheets offline and reverted the Model Port to an Old Turkey version of the port.

    • On June 16, 2013 at 10:40 am,
      Pibe says:

      Yes Jay; he is after all a con man. Never admitting mistakes and trying to get as much money from subscribers as he can. At least we did warn other people to NEVER FOLLOW WHAT GARY SAVAGE ADVICES OR WRITES. I think we have done our job trying to save other people from making the mistake we have made; I mean the evidence of this guy being an impostor, always wrong, not having the minimum idea of macroeconomics and basic serious technical analysis are there for everybody to see. The rest is up to them. Good luck if you are still a subscriber and God bless.

  34. On June 26, 2013 at 7:25 am,
    BrutusMaximus says:

    Gold @ 1238….ouch !
    I feel sorry for the current subscribers that are still following him Gary Savage

  35. On July 25, 2013 at 2:12 am,
    Sparrows345 says:

    This Gary fella to be fair, is one of many. These guys appeal the the Armageddonites as coined by Jim Puplava, and have no shame in selling services to anyone who would rather like to be told what they want to hear, vs. what they need to hear. Very few metals pundits reveal their actual year to year profit and loss totals, yet they are always quick to attack anyone else in the financial arena that does the same. Bottom line: Caveat Emptor.