Gary Savage weighs in on gold. (Remember, I said I listen to everyone!)
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i wonder what a figure of us debt timeline vs gold price would look like…….
Good point, Tex!
lol give it up dude
Time will certainly tell,
G’day Ruckus my reading freind,I know that you asked Gary some questions but he is so lazy that he asked me to answer them. I hope you don’t mind. Photo 1 Gary is in a comfortable spot. It is a very homey’ spot to us. Photo 2 has everyone stumped. No he is not looking out of something. He is looking from behind something that Mrs W didn’t have when she was at school!!Photo 3 Gary could be playing with something with wheels. I think you might know the answer to photo 3.Did the students in your class help you with your guesses?I will let you know the answers next week.Your blogging buddyCroc Crocodile
Under Cory’s charts of the day, yesterday, I said that I thought $1267 for gold will hold. So far, the market is cooperating. The plunge this morning reversed at $1267.92 and hasn’t gone near there since.
It would be nice to see some strength into the close for the week, and I think we will.
Bottom? I was cheering for Bob Moriaritys bottom, so much for that one.
Now Im cheering for Jenifer Anisons bottom.
I’ll second that one. It’s a very nice bottom 🙂
And it is?
I can almost see Kitco’s most poopular bottom!
(sorry Andrew – the devil made me do it)
Just in case you missed the dance…
I’ve followed Gary Vee for sommtiee and he is my #1 inspiration. Encouraging people to be real / authentic and genuine on-line is where it’s at. Too many people still treat the web like another vehicle for press releases throwing stuff at us that we wouldn’t want in an email, press release or piece of junk mail.In the words of Gary Vee the best web guys treat the internet like a cocktail party. They are fun. They are interesting. The don’t talk about themselves all the time. They are like the big fat Italian uncle that sits in the corner telling stories!That, I think, is the secret to on-line success.Great link thanks for posting.Jeremy
And I am happy to say that she is a very nice lady!
Irwin, Daniella’s one of my main reasons for visiting Kitco….!!
Tiger Tom (tfnn.com) figures gold is set to make a run to 1390.
– and unrelated to Tom or anything else:
Renegade Petroleum (RPL on Venture) cut their dividend by 50% but still closed up 3.4% today.
(nope – I don’t own it – never have & never will)
Gary, If you want to see a truly big Megaphone pattern take look at the Stock market going back 20 years. Following chart from Gordon T. Long website shows a collapse coming in the US stock market after this current bubble breaks. If the stock market collapses the currency will also collapse because debt/”GDP” will explode to levels of hundreds or perhaps thousands of percent bring down the bond market altogether.
Elizabeth Duke Fed governor of district 5 at Richmond, Virginia, announced resignation yesterday. The Fed members are in disagreement on what to do. Bernanke is leaving at year end.
Add all the news up and it looks like the second half of this year will be real bad for the US stock market, the dollar and treasury bonds. REAL BAD.
And for gold?
Al, Two week ago I mentioned the capitulation low as measured by French Curve. The dollar price per ounce for gold is now moving up and will continue going up for next couple years. We will see new highs toward end of this year, after that people won’t be measuring gold in current Fed dollars as no one will want them.
Interestin th Clay!
I think you need to be careful reading too much into technicals, Clay. That chart you posted looks like it was made by a child who went crazy with a classroom ruler! Not all of us buy the Megaphone pattern theory by the way. I do agree though that some risk are ahead and that bonds must eventually return to norms but I am much less sure it is going to be apocolyptic. This global financial drama has had many acts thus far and it sure looks to me that many years will pass as it slowly plays out.
I am an enigma. What did you expect?
The dollar may just be taking a break since it climbed so much and will come back to bite and I don’t see any all time highs coming soon except multi year highs in the dollar.
Hi Big Al,
I like Gary’s opinion very much. And agree. A;so the Fed does not want a strong dollar. A weaker dollar should mean hither gold and silver. Best to all.
Thanks Keep Stacking.
I think that Gary is better than many give him credit for.
Based on what? Have you ever followed Gary’s trading recommendations? I did and I can tell you: You will lose most of your capital. Please take a look at Gary’s record and talk to ex-subscribers before jumping to conclusions.
Problem with looking at Gary’s trading record, is he removed it from his site. He started the Model Port and then when it got substantially underwater, he decided to take down the spreadsheet and replace the Model Port with an “old turkey” version with no record of the previous trades. If he was any better than 90% of more of retail traders that lose money, then he wouldn’t have decided to remove the spreadsheet. Easy for someone to pretend they are great trader, if they can just start a new port from scratch after the current port gets slammed. I could easily become a billionaire on a trading simulator if I wanted to (especially if I could hit the Reset button and start from scratch if something goes wrong)
Of course you make a good point, Jay..
Bottom or not, Gary owes lots and lots of burritos! If I had to choose between buying and holding a laddered porfolio of T-Bonds over the long haul or following Gary’s trading advice, I would choose T-Bonds every time!
As I have said before, I listen to everyone.
…bet on the Seahawks then Al.
Every where you have to go.You looks like fine, but looks like not fine.Please take a rest.When you are reary fine, I like your magic(^0^)/I like your shorts. Its nice deigsn.
挑了第一面里支持率最高的评论大概翻译了一下 William 2 weeks agoCollapseMerrill Lynch has come up with a report in end 2010’s sttaing that India will surpass China in the next 20 to 30 years economy wise, and now we see this article. Both are based on the same arguments: english speaking, the political systems, the high tech… etc. And I bet that both of the writers of these two articles have possibly never been to India or conducted business there. One should just look at the public infrastructure between the two, the efficiency of the two governments can easily know why China is today so far ahead of India and will remain so in the decades to come. There is indeed a democratic system in India, but do you notice that that system doesn’t stop the class system in the Indian society? While China has pulled millions out of poverty and into middle class, the poor in India remains poor. Have you been to Mumbai? Do you know why the highway linkes the airport to the city center has not been completed in the past 10 years?The insight should be based on the real understanding of local situation, the culture, etc,, and not be based on hear-say and common sense. Merrill Lynch 在2010年底就写了一个报告说印度将在未来20到30年里在经济方面超过中国 现在又冒出这么一篇 唱衰中国的 文章 这两个作者的论据都是 会说英语 政治系统先进和高科技等等 我打赌这两篇文章的作者恐怕都没有去过印度或者在那儿做过生意 我们只要看看这两个国家的基础设施和政府的效率 就能明白为什么如今中国遥遥领先于印度 并且将在未来几十年中继续保持这种差距 的确 印度有一个民主的政治体系 但你有没有发现 他们的民主体系并没有阻止那里的阶级分化 中国已经使数百万穷人进入了中产生活 而印度的穷人依旧是穷人 你们去过孟买吗 你知道为什么链接机场到市中心的高速公路在过去10年终一直没有完工吗 观点应当来基于对当地情况以及文化等等的真实了解 而不是靠道听途说和既定印象
Fed Minutes Show 50% of Board Want QE To End by Year-end. QE is going to die and Bernanke is leaving. The US dollar is in a bull market that may last until October 2015.
I know that you listen to everybody but since your time is valuable you can concentrate your efforts into listening to people with experience and good track record. Do not waste your time listening to Gary, he is misleading, does not have the proper background, nor experience and decent track record and he only cares about ripping off subscribers -not to mention that he is most of the time wrong on his calls-. (but I guess you already know that; that’s why your disclaimer that you listen to everybody, right?) I would be nice to have a contrarian or at least a more balanced opinion here since “everybody” seems to be a gold-bug.
Last September, Gary notified his subscribers that he invested half his net worth in silver call options expiring in 2015 with a strike price in the low 30s. He offers nothing insightful about the markets. Why don’t you interview David Bensimon or Martin Armstrong? They accurately called the top in gold and silver last October.
Yes, this must be taken into account when Gary does his victory lap trying to lure in another batch of subscribers.
Only someone who hasn’t followed Gary’s countless bottom calls for the last year, who be foolish enough to say he’s better than most give him credit for.
Al, did you forget when Gary also called that $1320 was the bottom, in an interview by you??? He’s also been wrong about the dollar too. Constantly calling for collapses, when we got rallies instead.
Why not go and track down Forex Kong and give him a huge pat on the back for setting this Gary guys straight infront of his entire user base before being dumped by Gary! Out of pure embarassement!
http://www.forexkong.com This guy is deadly accurate and a total genius.
Guys, it should be noted that Gary is a very short man with a Napoleon complex, he will and has taken all his subscribers down by making them take leveraged positions in silver calls when silver was 35. I bought the same LEAPS on Monday for 10% of the price.
Gary due to his shortness has compensated with a massive ego so he will never admit to being wrong. His cycles are garbage, also Gary is only 4 feet 10 inches tall, FWIW.
OK, but what’s his SHOE SIZE?
Seriously though Tiho, Gary didn’t take anyone down…his subscribers took themselves down because they choose to participate in trades they believed in. Sorry if that might include you, but I’m a firm believer than each investor is 100% responsible for their investments.
I didn’t invest in calls since $35, and may have been lucky for doing so as I certainly didn’t see silver going below $20. But I did invest in some calls back when silver was $45, and I was looking for $55. I called it wrong, lost a good chunk, and have gone back to momentum buys on metals ever since.
Gold has held around $1260-ish for some time, and is looking good. The recent MSM announcement that the US made a budget surplus for June 2013 didn’t move gold…good, glad to know most of the world isn’t buying it. I think gold (and silver) have found their bottoms.
Personal responsibility is critical. We lost over 40k in PEM. Do I blame Del? NOPE!
That had to be tough…Formation was well-advanced to open a mine an decided to shutdown for the interim while cobalt prices firm-up. Just a crazy, crazy market Al…it really isn’t like the early 1980’s. Not yet at least!
Tough loss to take!
If you lost 40000, you must have sold your shares, did you give your ususal 3 days notice. When?
If you still own your shares you haven’t lost yet!
I doubt he’s as short as you say he is, but his market prediction and trading skills certainly seem to fall short! 😉
Like I said Jay lets look at his track record on our show. He came very highly recommended.
Fair ennough. Doesn’t really make a differencr.
Let’s see what his record is like here.
Oh, ps…”the budget surplus announcement” didn’t move gold DOWN, as I might have expected.
Does anyone else find it funny that all these trolls obviously still follow Gary’s reports as they show up immediately after he posts an interview? If they thought he was that bad why do they continue to read his blog?
I’ve been a sub for 4 years. Here is the truth. From early 2010 to 2011 Gary made his subs an absolutely obscene amount of money. From the accounts I’ve seen most made over 100% and many 300-600%. Personally my account rose by a little over 100%. I’m more risk adverse and didn’t take as large of a position in AGQ as most did.
After the top in 2011 he told his subs it was going to get much harder to make money. He was right. Gold entered a choppy range for the next two years. Despite that he was up 20-30% by the fall of 2012. And this was on top of the huge gains made in 2011 and 2012.
Did he get caught in the recent manipulation. Yes he did. Most gold bugs got caught. We all made the mistake of assuming we were playing on a level field. We found out we aren’t.
He did tell everyone to get out of the sector in late Jan. and like everyone else he’s been trying to spot the bottom ever since.
His current recommendation is a 10% position in GDX or SLV 2015 LEAP’s. The other 90% in cash. This hasn’t changed since January.
I might not have picked the SLV, but 2015 LEAPS for some kind of metals sounds interesting. Would want to check the open interest on various LEAPS in that time frame and go for a low premium, low OI, ETF. I wonder if the status-quo borrowing-to-survive in western nations will continue past that time though? It might. A lot of people want things to roll on just as they are.
Tj, I am also talking as an ex subscriber the only reason I follow Gary is because he is a good contrarian indicator so yes I still follow him to do exactly the opposite as he does. So dollar now should be good. As far as complaining; I would like to help others to not make the same mistake I made (i.e following Gary) so my intentions are have a contrarian and altruistic motive. I hope you find this funny. Good luck following Gary you will certainly need it!!!!
BTW tj you certainly sound like Gary using a fake name. Oh I forgot one of his fake names is Tobby Connor. Gary (or Tobby or TJ) go and climb a rock!!! Stop robbing subscriber’s money!!
I will say, Gary certainly generates a lot of emotion.
Yes Al you are right. If you were a long time ex subscriber (like myself) you would understand why. Just take a close look at Gary’s calls and his responses when he is wrong and you will understand why he generates “a lot of emotion”. Just pay attention. Right now he is calling for inflation and a dollar top. Please remember this call! You will see. Thank you for your patience!
I definitely will Mike.
If you are using my calls as a contrarian indicator them let me ask. How is your short on the stock market doing? Remember when I said stocks were about to enter the euphoria phase? http://smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/search?q=euphoria+phase I guess you traded against that call. Tiho certainly did. He still owes me a burrito for that one.
How about your oil short? I’ve been saying for months that oil was consolidating and would break upwards out of the two year triangle consolidation. I guess that means you are also short oil. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=D&yr=4&mn=6&dy=0&id=p27982923142&a=272061367&listNum=1
I told subs in the June 25th report that the Fed would try to abort the intermediate decline that was underway and that it would be dangerous to hold shorts. I guess that means you are still holding shorts on the stock market if you are doing the opposite.
I don’t believe the gold bull is finished. History has been pretty clear, and virtually all big secular bull markets end in a bubble phase. Gold has clearly not had that bubble phase yet. Unless human nature has changed then gold will have a bubble phase. We certainly aren’t changing anything fundamentally. Until we do the gold bull must continue.
But hey if you want to keep selling gold short based on my opinion that it’s in the process of finding a bottom then we’ll see how well that works out over the next year.
Everyone complaining about losing money BECAUSE of Gary obviously blindly followed him into trades. He is a newsletter writer, and like everyone will get calls wrong and calls right. Its just another piece of information and another tool that you use to make your OWN decisions regarding the market. I think many people thought Gary was omnipotent after he killed it during the last C wave. But like every trader out there he is not. Again it is up to you to make final decisions regarding trades, blaming Gary is just misplacing the frustration with yourself. And what is with the personal attacks? Its amazing how tough people get with the benefit of anonymity.
I completely agree. Let’s not get nasty!
Here is the thing, every newsletter writer in the world wants you to think that they have the holy grail of trading. the perfect set of tools that never fails.
The cold hard fact is that no one has that combination because it doesn’t exist. The market eventually breaks everyone’s system from time to time. The manipulation after QE4 certainly broke my system based on cycles, sentiment and COT’s.
Unfortunately the rules were changed on us in the middle of the game. It can happen. This isn’t a fair game we are playing. This is the business of money and those with the power to do so will not hesitate to change the rules to their favor whenever possible.
Ultimately the market always wins in the end though. Housing bubbles eventually pop. Propped up economies eventually crumble. Artificial bond markets eventually topple, and gold bull markets will continue until they end in a bubble.
Of this I am confident. And a thousand years of history will back me up.
you have been calling bottoms since december in PM’s. obviously eventually you will be right and then you can tell everyone how great you are again
the main issue from people is the way you treat your subs Gary, not necessarily the fact you are wrong. you give them attitude when they question you, you kick people out for disagreeing with you etc
you are an egotistical maniac and one day, God willing, your scam will backfire on you
Boy, we sure hsve a lot of negative comments hete!
God help me, I put aside a whole afotenorn to figure this out.
David Bensimon, Martin Armstrong, Rambus and many other analysts predicted the decline in gold last year. Manipulation is not the reason for the bear market in precious metals. Future traders do not use COTs as a primary tool to determine the direction of the markets. I suggest people read Da n Norcini
Last year gold was in a down trend until May. It wasn’t hard to predict something that was already happening. Did they catch the move up from the May bottom to the Sept. top? I did by using cycles, COT reports and sentiment.
I don’t think anyone questions whether the gold market was manipulated over the last 8 months. No real trader trying to maximize profits would dump the kind of volume we saw in the thin overnight markets. I don’t think however that it was the Fed or JPM. I think it was done to move physical gold from west to east.
It was hugely successful.
BTW based on his 2010, 2011 and 2012 predictions Armstrong is wrong far more often than he’s right. Here is just one example: http://www.survivalistboards.com/showthread.php?t=254419
According to Armstrong we should be heading into an economic collapse by now culminating in Aug. Since we are at all time highs it seems a little unreasonable to expect the world to fall apart in the next 2-3 weeks.
The fact is that every advisor gets some right and they get some wrong. Most just extrapolate the current trend into the future and claim to have spotted it in advance. It’s rarely true.
Bensimone was calling for $2000+ gold at the beginning of the year. Not sure why one would consider that accurate. Even I was only expecting a test of the all time highs. Not big new highs.
Uh Sorry, Gary
You better read that link you posted because Armstrong isn’t calling for an economic collapse by August 2013. He is answering the question regarding the speed at which a cycle “turning point” is approaching. And if you read his blog, “turning points” DON’T MEAN A CHANGE IN DIRECTION OF THE MARKETS, they can refer to geopolitical events or the markets. And a “turning point” can actually mean an increase in market activity, a pause from current cyclical trends, or a geopolitical event, such as the German Elections coming up soon, or an actual market directional change.
Looking at the link you provided to a blog post it appears that some of the readers there DON’T read very well and even admitting to doing a “QUICK SCAN” and naturally turned a QUESTION into a statement: “Will we collapse by August 2013?” which is a question – was turned into a statement “We WILL collapse by August 2013”. There’s a BIG DIFFERENCE there, Gary.
I only kick people out when they become rude and when other subs start complaining about them. Plenty of current subs disagree with me. Most of the EW guys think this isn’t the bottom. As long as they aren’t rude or foul mouthed they are free to post their opinions.
I have no problem debating the market with anyone as long as they remain civil.
“you have been calling bottoms since december in PM’s”
On the contrary. I told everyone to sell and take the loss on Jan 24. It’s well documented.
There have been potential bottoms along the way. One in February, one in April and now one in June.
Sooner or later the final bottom will arrive and the secular trend will resume. At the moment every sub, including Old Turkey’s should have a stop right below $1179. If that gets violated then it’s time to get back out of the pool.
Here’s the problem. Most retail traders look at trading as a get rich quick business. So when their guru makes a call, especially if they have been right for a while, then the amateur takes out a very leveraged trade based on that call. If it goes against him he’s broke and irate. If folks had gotten out in Jan. and paid attention to my recommendations on position size they would be down at most 10% and have a 10% position in 2014 or 2015 LEAP’s.
A 10% loss isn’t the end of the world. Even a 20% loss is recoverable, especially in a bull market. But if one leveraged their account 5, 10 or 20:1 then they have no hope of ever recovering.
I’ve said it countless times before, but I say it again. Heavy leverage always ends in a blown out account. There are never any exceptions to this rule. Even if you get the direction right you will still blow out your account because you won’t be able to hang on through the normal wiggles that happen during all trends.
Yes the leverage junkies are probably probably broke and hoping God will smite me. The traders that treat this like a business and control risk are down a little bit but still in the game for the next leg of the secular bull.
I have personally have experienced how omnipotent and rude you are. You are right on one thing you did not kick me out as a subscriber i personally decided to not give you my money anymore since your service is not only useless but misleading. Always being wrong might not be a problem but never admitting it and having attitude is.
If you believe in your system it doesn’t matter what vehicle you use, it’s relative
Bensimon’s call for 2600 gold by 2014 would be invalidated if gold breached 1280. He was part of the Emergency Gold Summit in Vancouver two months ago and he clearly stated that gold would test 1280 and if that level was broken, then we would see lower levels. He has a new research report on the precious metals that costs $200. People pay thousands of dollars to his trading seminars and he has made many accurate calls on gold since 2001. He was in Vancouver last October and told everyone to go short gold at silver and predicted 1300 and 21 as downside targets. I wouldn’t use free YouTube videos as a basis for someone’s track record.
I have not talked with David for probabl uhh three or four years.
David would be a great guest on your radio show. He is a gold bull, but he is a trader by profession. He dismissed any notion of manipulation in the precious metals market. It would greatly benefit your listeners to have a more balanced approach to the markets.
I will talk with him.
Martin Armstrong has consistently forecast an economic decline beginning in late 2015. He sees the dollar, US stock market and interest rates rising into 2015 and then implode in the third quarter of that year. Of course, he could change his forecast if certain events arise. Armstrong and Bensimon are both traders and do not stubbornly hold on to losing positions. They could easily go long or short without hesitation. Also, Rambus told his subscribers to go long DUST, DGLD, and DSLV last December based on chart patterns.
Gary’s advice is not for inexperienced traders. I remember, as a subscriber, asking if I should go ahead and sell instead of staying Old Turkey as he called it. He said many times that those who sold would miss the incredible jump in miners that would soon eclipse those last few percentage gains in the stock market. He did recommend selling earlier but told the holdouts they should stick with their losses and ride it out because gold was going to go up big time soon. It was always a couple of weeks away. Well, I never sold and lost nearly everything. I have no choice now, but to hold for whenever things change if they ever will, and I’ll miss and continue to miss the greatest bull run in history in the stock market. Sure it might dip soon, but it will rise and make all those gold bugs puke along the way. Yes, Gary is a one note newsletter writer who hasn’t a clue what the dollar will do next as is evident each time he makes another wrong call. He make assumptions concerning the economy as if we are the only country in the world and are unaffected by the fact that we are now the only game in town. That is sheer stupidity. Sorry Gary, your advice is worthless now.
Gary is just a mercenary. Sorry that you had to follow the advice of a mercenary. He is only worried about getting money out of subscriptions. That’s the sad truth.
Al, I like your speakers, but not Gary again. Gary went Old Turkey, because his trades are almost always wrong. Even his Old Turkey was wrong, 10% risk should have been PM short. Gary has a rule to never ever ever short gold, because he thinks gold never ever ever falls. Traders don’t want to hear someone that stubborn. According to cycles, gold should have been shorted at some point, even late made a lot of profit. Now cycles say gold should still fall to a lower low. If cycles are right, then gold has not bottomed yet.
You don’t need any trading skill when price only goes up up up like 2011. I made 250% with no leverage by 2011, because price only went up. You need trading skill when gold is tricky like now. Old Turkey and calling ten bottoms is not helpful, a monkey can do that too.
Fair enough hpepper.
I certainly would like some definitive data on this track record.
Al, Gary is hiding his track record and port for the past few years, so you can’t see any definitive data. He also deleted comments on his blog to prevent traders from reporting his disastrous track record to potential new subs.
No one minds when a writer is wrong or has failed trades, that’s just part of trading. But traders get mad when they get conned. Gary can’t lie that he only lost 10% of his port in the past few years.
The truth is that Gary rode the AGQ top down in 2011, then he lost another 10% in SLV calls, then he destroyed his port with no stops in levered miners, then he lost another 10% in LEAPS. Those are only his largest losses, not all of his losses.
There are many reasons that traders may not like a writer. But there is only one reason that a writer hides his track record.
Person.. I am not considerably into reading, but in some way I got to see lots of content on your blog site. Its wonderful how interesting it is for me to visit anyone very often. –
If you are really good at forecasting the market why do you even need to go public or sell such “valuable” information for a few pennies?
People who are really good – they keep their mouths shut, they are trading and making a bank. They run funds, they make money. They will never disclose the methods that bring in the $$$.
Unfortunately ” financial ” blogosphere is full of talking heads who simply have no clue.
To a very large extent, I believe that you are correct.
Your next question should be, “well, Big Al, why do you do this site”?
Easy answer, I absolutely love the dialog and I get some good stock tips from many of our listeners.
Gold has to get by next weeks options expiration. If it can survive that then I’ll be convinced that June 28th will turn out to be a final yearly cycle low.