Gary Savage – Fri 6 Sep, 2013

The tail is definitely wagging the dog.

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Al KorelinGary Savage

  1. On September 6, 2013 at 9:02 am,
    Dai Uy says:


    Any word from Grant Williams lately?

  2. On September 6, 2013 at 9:05 am,
    Dai Uy says:

    Will you and Cory be participating in the October Silver Summit?

  3. On September 6, 2013 at 9:12 am,
    Glen says:

    We are in the eye before the storm right now. I think Syria is the most important immediate issue. The markets are pretty sure about this tapering issue in my opinion. Obama basicly announced that tapering was going to happen at the G-20 meeting. This will cause a certain amount of chaos in the markets which I welcome. My question right now is whether Obama will override Congress if they do not vote for the military action. Obama has a very big ego. His presidency and reputation is at stake right now. All we can do is wait and see how this unfolds and hope that gold holds 1350 until after the FOMC meeting happens. Stocks are risky and I wouldn’t touch them right now.

  4. On September 6, 2013 at 9:27 am,
    Matthew says:

    I don’t share Gary’s nervousness. The miners have dramatically outperformed gold since the June lows and now the gains must be consolidated. This is typical and not a warning of any kind in my opinion. Their outperformance will resume very soon. GDX and GDXJ both still remain above their 34 day moving average and GDXJ is still showing more strength than GDX. GDXJ is also still $5 away from filling its early August breakaway gap. All of this action is good/bullish. There is nothing ominous in the least here.

  5. On September 6, 2013 at 9:37 am,
    Dai Uy says:

    Should Obama decide to go it alone, hopefully the House will immediately draft Articles of Impeachment.

    I’m less worried about Syria that I am Iran.

    • On September 6, 2013 at 9:45 am,
      Matthew says:

      I really don’t think so. Instead, a legal precedent will have been set for all future presidents to point to and exploit. Both parties are full of proven Hamiltonians.

    • On September 6, 2013 at 1:48 pm,
      JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

      I hope he gets impeached…….and it would be two in a row for the demon cracts…….

  6. On September 6, 2013 at 9:39 am,
    Matthew says:

    It also tends to be a positive for resource stocks when the dollar plunges against the loonie and the Aussie$ as it has today. The dollar is equally weak versus the yen, the rupee, the Swiss franc, and the Mexican peso and is down a whopping 1.49% versus the New Zealand $.
    The usdx is holding up as well as it is only because the euro has, by far, the biggest weighting in that basket.

  7. On September 6, 2013 at 9:48 am,
    Dai Uy says:


    Hopefully the NC Congressman will have some thoughts on the subject this week-end. And hopefully, our military may at least question the legality of any such order.

  8. On September 6, 2013 at 10:20 am,
    James (the lesser) says:

    Gary says in his own personal account he’s gone to cash. There you have it. Every time people panic they still go to cash. During the 2008 credit crises people went to cash or needed to raise cash. This is the mindset that needs to change for gold to really take off.

    • On September 6, 2013 at 10:27 am,
      Matthew says:

      Keep in mind that Gary is talking about trading accounts. I bet (hope) he still holds physical gold that he doesn’t trade. I’m with you though, I’ll take gold!

      • On September 6, 2013 at 1:50 pm,
        JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

        ditto……….pm only, and cash for daily needs only.

  9. On September 6, 2013 at 12:36 pm,
    Hal says:

    2 weeks ago Gary called for a quick run to 1500-that did not happen

    Last Friday he said we would have a huge drop in Gold price–went down but not a huge drop.

    Longterm PM are the place to be but to call the short term is insane–too many games being played including the casino they call the jobs report.

    • On September 6, 2013 at 1:51 pm,
      JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

      Hal…..everyone is guessing, and will continue to guess until the derivatives start to unfold………..

    • On September 6, 2013 at 3:00 pm,
      mike says:

      It also went opposite on NFP day

      This guy is the contrarian indicator there is

      • On September 6, 2013 at 8:46 pm,
        Pibe says:

        Yep. So far Gary has been a good contrarian indicator for the last 30 months.

  10. On September 6, 2013 at 3:21 pm,
    Bobby says:

    come on al we can do better here.

  11. On September 6, 2013 at 3:31 pm,
    LGC says:

    My matra for the future regarding gold comes from Kingworlds site. “AS THE FANTASY DIES PANIC ENSUES AND GOLD WILL SOAR”

  12. On September 6, 2013 at 6:47 pm,
    Pibe says:


    I told you about Gary; now he is bearish; a few days ago he was manic bullish!!! This guy is a joke…..he has been always a flip-flop like this; that’s why he never makes money. Anyway I still hold the same view (no flip-flopping here) Gold down unless we go to war and US stock market way up unless we go to war. Same view as before nothing has changed. I already explained my rationale for this. But I agree with you that if you bought physical gold below $ 1,000 just keep it (I believe that maybe in 6-7 years it will worth much more than today’s price but we are not there yet) but first the US stock market has to act as a “magnet” and attract capital inflows from other countries (the DOW might even double in price).

    • On September 7, 2013 at 10:52 am,
      Matthew says:

      Given the economic realities caused in large part by way too much debt, it is, and has been, a big mistake to favor conventional stocks over gold since 2000 (the last two years notwithstanding). Gold is still up 450% (5.5x) while the Dow is up just 25-30%.
      Unless an investment outperforms gold, any gains are nominal and not real. Based on this, the Dow is really down about 75% since 2000 while gold has really done well by not falling with everything else. In the 1980s and ’90s, the Dow went up nearly 45 times in gold terms! Talk about real gains.

      If the Dow were to double anytime soon, say by 2020, gold would go up ten to twenty times. Absolutely nothing has been fixed that has been driving the dollar price of gold for the last decade.

      • On September 7, 2013 at 5:22 pm,
        Pibe says:

        The thing Matthew is that gold is not a big market; therefore, not a valid option for big capitals and big funds but the dollar and the stock market are. Thats why I believe capitals from Europe and emerging countries will go for the dollar and the US stock market.

      • On September 7, 2013 at 5:45 pm,
        Pibe says:

        “the Dow went up nearly 45 times in gold terms! Talk about real gains.” I see what you are saying but that does not mean that gold is going to catch up. The Dow can still go much higher and gold remain flat. Again, the gold market is not big enough to absorb all the money from big capitals in Europe and emerging countries.

        • On September 7, 2013 at 6:20 pm,
          Matthew says:

          In 1929, the Dow was worth about 20 ounces of gold. In 1932, the Dow was worth about 1 ounce. In 1966, the Dow was worth about 28 oz. In 1980 it was again worth just 1 oz. In 1999, the Dow hit an intraday high of nearly 45 oz. In 2011, the Dow was as low as 5.8 oz (nearly a 90% decline in 11 years, no wonder it enjoyed such big bounce over the last two years). After becoming extremely overbought for a very long time, the Dow’s cyclical bounce took it to as high as 12.5 oz recently (more than a 100% gain vs. gold!). The Dow now trades at 10.7 oz and is on its way to 1 oz (or even lower in my opinion, for various reasons). There is nothing to support the notion that the Dow made its final bottom at 5.8 oz.
          Gold trades about $250 billion per day, more than twice the $ volume of the S&P. Very short term, dollars and T-bills will still be the default “safe havens,” but it is precisely because gold is less liquid than those items that it will move dramatically higher, easily. “Fear flows” AT THE MARGIN will make it so as people attempt to get SOME exposure. Let’s not forget that as recently as the 1960’s, a 5% allocation to gold was seen as prudent for every portfolio. If such a modest allocation were seen to be prudent today by a majority of investors, gold would indeed go “to the moon.” That is exactly what I believe will happen.

          • On September 7, 2013 at 9:34 pm,
            Pibe says:

            OK fair enough. I do not share your optimism but at least your case is well thought and supported by facts. You are also drawing parallels between the past and the present that make some sense but do not forget that the gold standard was suppressing the price of gold for a long time so that also might explain what had happened in 1980. In any case your point is well supported (unlike Gary’s who builds castles in the air). Your scenario might just happen…..who knows. Let’s see which scenario unfolds during the next months mine or yours.

          • On September 7, 2013 at 10:32 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Your scenario or mine, I think we can count on some action that neither of us can imagine, much less anticipate.
            Another argument for much higher $gold is the fact that in 1980, it took a price of about $470 to back all foreign-held U.S. debt. Today, it would take roughly $20,000 gold to do the same. Gold overshot $470 by as much as $400 in 1980. Similar overshoot today would put gold around $37,000. Additionally, in 1980, the 8,133 tons of U.S. gold peaked at a value equal to about 130% of M1 money supply. At today’s price, it equals about 10% of M1. Just think what would happen if it turns out that some or even all of the gold is gone, as many suggest. The dollar could evaporate.
            If you want to know the future, look at the past. I remember reading an article in a magazine like Money back in the early ’90s in which talk of the Dow at 5,000 was viewed as crazy talk. Food for thought…

  13. On September 7, 2013 at 8:02 am,
    Pibe says:

    With the Russian support against US now war is more unlikely; therefore, the case for $ 2000 gold does not look good at all.

    • On September 7, 2013 at 9:21 am,
      mike says:

      Obama has no choice, he’s going….russia or no russia

  14. On September 7, 2013 at 5:26 pm,
    Pibe says:

    by the way….Gary is blaming gold manipulation again!! Sorry I know I am not supposed to criticize him anymore but seriously what a loser! I know I know….sorry!

  15. On September 9, 2013 at 5:55 pm,
    Don M says:

    The fact that Gary Savage is “nervous” concerning the possibility that there may be another sell off in gold is, in my opinion, good news to anyone who is long gold. Mr Savage has not earned the right to be called ‘credible’ given his very poor track record for calling the direction of the gold markets. Matthew has got it right about the miners, in that they are outperforming gold and that is a bullish sign.

  16. On September 15, 2013 at 10:26 pm,
    Silver Future says:

    Where the prices will go if Bull run is confirmed?

    The very first rally of this series (Single Process 1) almost doubled the prices i.e. from $4.00 to $8.47.
    Second rally (Double Process) quadrupled the prices i.e. from $5.43 to $21.34.
    Third rally (Single Process 2) sextuplet the prices i.e. from $8.41 to $49.82.
    So, the fourth rally (If this holdup) will octuple the prices i.e. from &18.20 to $145.00?

  17. On September 15, 2013 at 10:26 pm,
    Silver Future says:

    Where the prices will go if Bull run is confirmed?

    The very first rally of this series (Single Process 1) almost doubled the prices i.e. from $4.00 to $8.47.
    Second rally (Double Process) quadrupled the prices i.e. from $5.43 to $21.34.
    Third rally (Single Process 2) sextuplet the prices i.e. from $8.41 to $49.82.
    So, the fourth rally (If this holdup) will octuple the prices i.e. from &18.20 to $145.00?

  18. On February 3, 2014 at 7:24 pm,
    Orhan says:

    Given the current vniotg system I do not believe All-Star Game appearances should be considered to determine HOF candidates. It’s not uncommon for deserving players to be left off the team, either because of fan vniotg or the rule that requires at least one player from each MLB team make their respective squad.The accepted benchmarks for HOF consideration include 3,000 hits, 500 home runs, 300 wins, or 3,000 strikeouts. Achieving one of those marks virtually guarantees admission.So consider the player who plays 20 years and averages 25 home runs per season. 25 is a fairly ordinary home run total in todays’ game so that player may never come close to being considered for an All-Star appearance. The All-Star Game rewards a player for current performance while the Hall of Fame recognizes a players’ career achievements. They’re two totally different honors.