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GS you sound like the classic racetrack tout, covering all your bets. You are just getting nervous now? You don’t have a warm and fuzzy feeling? Where have you been the last two years when I’ve been saying this? Everyone is saying what gold will do – huge profits for those,who exercise patience and follow the fundamentals. LISTEN TO WHAT THE GOLD MARKET IS SAYING! You say gold should be up today because the $ is down. OIL IS DOWN ALSO. The correlation between gold and oil is back. Just a few weeks ago you were high on gold, now you want to avoid the sector completely? You are either a day trader or a tout, but you certainly are not a long term investor.
The one point I would make here is that Gary seems to feel that with changing conditions, his views change.
There is certainly nothing wrong with that if you do not have a long term horizon as I do.
I personally could sell silver at this point at a 50% profit, but that is not why I initially purchased the silver.
As listeners are aware, my horizon is very long term. Actually longer than my personal life span assuming that a currency crisis does not occur. If it did I certainly would used our silver for food, etc.
I exited all metal positions other than LEAP’s on January 24th. I thought we had an intermediate bottom on June 28th. I even commented on it here. Check the archives.
Now I’m nervous that the intermediate rally might be over.
A look at GDP Growth at the expense of debt creation.
Ragan 1981-1989 $1.50 debt for $1 GDP
Bush 1989-1993 $2.50 debt for $1 GDP
Clinton 1993-2001 $3.50 debt for $1 GDP
Bush2 2001-2005 $5.00 debt for $1 GDP
Bush2 2005-2009 $7.00 debt for $1 GDP
Obama 2009-2013 $7-$11 debt for $1 GDP.
NOW DO YOU KNOW WHY 12.5% – 28.5% OF YOUR WEALTH SHOULD BE IN Ag/Au!
I completely agree Mr. McDade,
Note my comment above to James.
Here’s another way to express the same thing: From 1953 to 1984, every dollar of new debt increased GDP by 63 cents. From 1985 to 2000, every dollar of new debt increased GDP by just 24 cents. From 2001 to 2012, the increase fell to just 8 cents. In each period, using debt to “stimulate” the economy has been a losing proposition.
Same points here:
Paul, Toby IS Gary.
Maybe I should get a 2nd name: pope john paul l?
Don’t worry Paul…it’s fashionable these days π
Can you substantiate that Matthew?
The writing and predictions are identical, websites are the same. Both link to each show done here on your show. Have a look:
Not that there is any need, but you could ask him about it.
Here you got something you probably never read in the US Media….
I went to the site Mike and judging by its advertisers I would not put a lot of credence in it. Just my opinion.
I love to read Gary for chuckles. His guesses are as good as mine and as accurate as a monkey throwing a dart at different size turds to see if one hits—doesn’t make much difference in the end.
I did get subs out at the exact top last Tuesday. That seems a little better than throwing darts.
Actually Gary is right on this one. Monkeys are not good as contrarian indicators. Don’t pay attention Gary just keep up with your predictions; I am making money doing the opposite than your advice.
By the way Gary, what’s the dollar doing? I thought it was going to be taking a swan dive according to you for the tenth time now. I’ll give you a hint Gary: the dollar’s the only game in town.
I still think the dollar is headed lower. If it can dip below 80.73 it will confirm the intermediate cycle is in decline.
That being said the currency markets are the most manipulated markets in the world so I’ve come to expect the unexpected and no way would I try to trade currencies.
As a former professional horse handicapper I really take exception with people who claim to be experts and are nothing more than charlatans, touts and info pushers.
Everyday at the race track I backed up my opinion with my own cold hard cash. I put my own finances, and reputation of the line everyday, every race.
Sometimes I won and reaped the reward. Other times I lost and lived with the consequences.
I didn’t solicit anyone else’s opinion, nor did I share my own knowledge with anyone else. It was just me against the game and against myself.
I’ve always had a particular detest and disdain for people who sell their opinion rather than having the courage of your convictions and taking your own advice and solely making that your only source of income.
Anyone who needs to have subscribers and can’t make it on their own is nothing more than a tout. It’s the classic case of “if you can handicap (trade…you fill in the blank) successfully why do you need other people’s money?
I’ve seen it all my life. They usually come up with some lame brain reason.
I have no respect for these people.
Don’t get me wrong, selling data, information, or statistics is a worthwhile endeavor and I applaud it.
Selling your opinion though is a completely different ball game.
I have very strong feelings about this.
This is why I voice my feelings about this subject on this forum.
I know most of you are smart enough to know this and steer clear of these types, but if there is one person out there who might fall prey to this, I feel it is my duty, my obligation to tell it the way it is.
I do not want to see anyone lose their hard earned money following a self proclaimed expert.
Do your own homework, stick to your own plan and back up your opinion with your own money!
And I sincerely hope for success for all of you!
I use a specific set of tools that include cycles analysis, sentiment and money flows. So it’s hardly my opinion. If cycles and sentiment say we should go down then I look for a move down no matter what my personal feeling is about the market. When I see a warning sign like the key reversal in miners I call attention to it even if no one wants to hear it. Being mostly focused on gold my subscribers disagreed with the cautionary stance vehemently. But I think it’s better to recognize when something might be wrong rather than risk getting caught in another manipulation event.
Certainly not trying to crow, James. Remember that I do put my money where my mouth is. Remember also that I lost a ton of money last year including a $42K hit from PEM!
Maybe I should also point out that the stock market is rising just like I said it would. The NDX is at new highs just like I said. Where is Jane/Kong to ridicule that call now?
Gary Savage said “.. the stock market is rising just like I said it would. The NDX is at new highs just like I said. Where is Jane/Kong to ridicule that call now?”
Wow …. talking about a man without an ounce of INTEGRITY!! Gary, go looked at your own web site. How many times have you called GOLD Bottom and STOCK Top in the last 1 year, as well as USD ?? And you were calling IT or LT Top/Bottom, not ST short term. And MOST, if not all turned out WRONG. WRONG! WRONG!
I know your game, as well as soo many past subscribers. You posted a new free note on your site claiming 2 things at the same time — both are contrary call, like Gold bottom and Gold has topped. Then a few months later, you come out talking like you did in the 1st paragraph — “… just like I said …” .
FXCK You Gary. FXCK you.
Go read your own subscriber forum and you would see plenty laughing and criticising you. You cheery post your entry/exit positions at a later time and claim good return that cannot be verified. Those who disagreed with you (even politely so) on you subscription site got banned.
That just show you have ZERO Integrity, again.
Not correct at all. I’ve been saying for months and months that I thought stocks would make at least a marginal new high. You can hear my calls right here in the archives. When stocks do top I expect it will be a very long process probably lasting a year or more before we get any real downside momentum.
I even told subs in the weekend report on June 22 that I expected the Fed to try and abort the correction and sure enough on Monday the market reversed and aborted the failed daily cycle, then went on to new highs.
My calls for stocks have been pretty much right on the money unless you are trying to day trade. I’m not good at calling short term moves. Cycles are better for intermediate degree moves.
Al, I think I already made my point about Gary’s horrible skills in timing the market. Having said that it might be time to go long since Gary is now bearish and nervous. But hey he is saying he has two scenarios: Gold can either go down or up. Seriously?? Anyway…since Gary has an spotless record as a contrary indicator; it might be time to go long gold. Thinking about buying NUGT now.
Matthew: Your scenario might just be starting to play out after all.
Listen to the interview again. There are two specific scenarios where I would buy back. One is a move above $1417 to negate the weekly swing. The other is if gold continues down into the FOMC meeting and then reverses hard on a minor tapering annoucement. That would be an indication that the market has direction 180 degrees wrong.
I’m neither bearish or bullish. I’m on the sidelines. I’m nervous that the manipulation is about to start again. I’m waiting to see which way the market is going to go.
I mentioned many times Matthew was good with technicals π
My strong suggestion is for you not to listen to Gary.
LOL looks like Kong/Jane has changed names again to Sean.
I Just bought NUGT. Thank you Gary! Best contrarian indicator ever!
I’ll join you if gold can get back above $1417. Although I won’t be buying NUGT. That thing is a widow maker even if you manage to get the direction right. The daily wiggles are so large you can’t hold onto positions and end up buying high and selling low. I’ve been telling people for months and months not to trade that thing. Those that ignored me have watched their portfolios get whipsawed to pieces.
Well……74% profits using you as a contrarian indicator. So say whatever you want….I will keep enjoying my profits. π
Seriously how can you possibly have 4% profits in the span of a few minutes? NUGT is negative.
I’ll say it again since you don’t seem to comprehend what I’m saying. I’m neither bullish nor bearish, I’m on the sidelines waiting for gold to move back above $1417.
Why do you bother? It’s obvious these nut jobs are idiots. They can’t even listen to your interview and understand what you’re saying. I’m not the brightest person in the world but even I understand what sitting on the sidelines means.
74% not 4%. I guess I am not the only one who does not understand what is being stated. Besides my trades with NUGT and DUST were ALL documented here in REAL TIME (take a look at previous GARYβs interviews and you will see them all). What I was doing is using Gary as a contrarian indicator (along with other indicators) since every time he is bullish or bearish; the PM market does the opposite. It is actually well documented during the last 30 months. Anyway I will say it again; I made 74% (seventy four percent profit – not four percent!) during the past weeks (not minutes) using GARY as a contrarian indicator. It is well documented (real time) in the past posts of GARY’s interviews. Big Al already know about this. I am not bluffing here just take a look at the past interviews posts and you will see my (DUST and NUGT) real time trades.
And I have to ask you again, why don’t you just not listen to Gary?
Because it is part of my tools and indicators; as a contrarian indicator that is.
Tobby Conner an article posted @ 321 gold
Saturday, September 7, 2013
IS THE MANIPULATION IN THE METALS ABOUT TO BEGIN AGAIN?
The answer to the question above unfortunately is maybe. There are definitely warning signs springing up.
Also Louise Yamada @ kwn is saying we could test 1340-1275 again.
Just sayin it doesnt look like Garry is the only one to think manipulation could happen again. I have seen it too many times to believe it couldnt.
For those who think KWN only interviews only goldbugs, Yamada, Cashin, and many others are obviously not goldbugs. The following looks balanced to me…
KWN Note: Until further technical evidence suggests otherwise, Yamada believes the gold market remains bearish: β… technical arguments thus far suggest Gold is simply experiencing a bear market rally.β The same situation exists technically in the silver market according to Yamada: βA trading range between 20 and 25 could develop as a period of repair for Silver in what currently represents a bear market rally.β
benb, as I posted earlier, Toby and Gary are the same person.
Why would a guy do that? Seems fishy to me, why would Al have a guy on useing aliases?
I dont understand the advantage to it.
Trust me Benb and everyone,
Big Al would not have a guy on using aliases if he were aware of it.
I began having Gary on the Show because of some strong recommendations that I got from a real pro in our industry.
May I ask who that pro is? Because my experience with Gary as an ex-subscriber tells me that Gary is far far away from being a pro.
Even KWN has some bearish analysis. Funny how for the better part of a year and a half I have been saying the gold market has changed. The parabolic blowoffs came already and this was not your ordinary correction. Few listened. This is why my call for $1500 by the end of September still stands. Gold has not done anything so far to convince me otherwise
Yamada has been bearish or cautious many times since the correction began two years ago.
There has been no parabolic blowoff. Look at chart 9 here:
When there is a real blowoff, markets retrace far more than 40% in far less than two years. In addition, the typical parabolic rise sees the final 100% advance take place in just a few months, not 33! I have pointed this out before; are you part of the few who don’t listen?
You are absolutely correct in your observation that we have not had a meaningful blow off!
You show me seem charts compiled by some one who is trying to make a bull case for gold, as if they are gospel. Past performance is no guarantee of future success! If all it took was looking at charts we all would be billionaires! Doesn’t work that way. Maybe you haven’t been listening?
I’ve been saying the same thing for two years. I just saw that convenient chart a week ago and thought you would know its value. What is wrong with someone trying to make a case for an investment, anyway?! Isn’t that what we do before we come to an investment decision??? Sorry, I realize you don’t do that. You like to dictate to the market how it’s gonna be. Guess what, the market does not care about your demands. No professional makes money by issuing ultimatums to the market.
It is ridiculous that you would say there has been a blowoff without any concern for what a blowoff actually is. Forget the chart. I am telling you that no blowoff in history has ended with the action we have witnessed in gold for the last two years. Whether we’re talking about the Tulip Mania of 1637, the Dow in 1929, the tech stocks in 2000, or gold in 1980, blow-offs end with a very rapid collapse of usually 80 to 95%.
As always, another good point Matthew!
If time is money you’ve made me a weealhitr woman.
Here is a more upbeat gold commentary:
I do not dictate to the market what it is going to be. Quite the opposite. I dictate what I must do based on the market. The market will do what it will do. I must adjust accordingly. I cannot stubbornly hold onto a position because I am convinced my opinion must be right. When I have made an ultimatum to the market? Never. I am makng an ultimatum to myself. I do not get self deluded with what I think I know and where I think the market is going.
You cite other examples of manias throughout history as if each one must end the same way. I do not subscribe to that way of thinking. I think a 62% drop in silver from top to bottom warrants a review of being a parabolic blowoff.
Statistics are great and work, except when they don’t. Have you ever heard of the law of independence? I would never try to fit the Tulip Mania of 1637 and the current gold market into some box to set mine if gold had a parabolic blowoff. The price action in gold these last two years has been crystal clear – a bear market.
All bear markets will eventually turn. How low and how long before it happens? I do not pretend to know. But I do know I will not continue to believe we are in a bull market because I feel it must be so. That seems to be your position. You are making a case for a bull market based on what you believe to be so. The price action is saying otherwise.
Historical comparisons are just one of many things to consider. They gain relevance when other aspects line up as well. The fundamentals couldn’t be better and the technicals aren’t far behind considering the short time since the lows. Technical damage takes time to repair, so the charts can’t turn on a dime for all time frames. This is why Louise Yamada says β… technical arguments thus far suggest Gold is simply experiencing a bear market rally.β She technically has no choice until price deals with certain resistance, to put it simply.
So you give yourself an ultimatum. Professionals don’t do that either. Real, ongoing analysis always trumps some arbitrary date. As for the 62% decline, this is not far from what happened in 2008 when silver fell from $21.50 to $8 and change before going up more than 5 fold. There is record demand and silver jumped as much as 33%+ in two months. If anything, the price action suggests that it got way too cheap at $18.
Good point Matthew!
Well, bear or correction for the last couple of years the gold secter has been ruff.
Wins have been few and far between, for me anyway.
kwn does say that central banks india and china are buying the entire prodution of gold now.
That would be interesting if its true.
Hey man, been pretty tough for me also!
Gotta tell you James the Greater,
It is really hard for me to get excited about either argument because I am not a gold/silver trader.
I don’t put people down (as you also don’t) if they are short term traders. I simply state over and over again that our reasons for buying and holding au and ag are definitely not motivated by profit.
Big Al is not that knowledgeable and smart, having fallen victim to grant Gary many interviews despite so many past subscribers warning.
All right, I am gonna do Big AL a favor. Next time you interview Gary Savage again, make sure you ask him about his past ridicules on Gold Manipulation gang. When Gary was having his hot hands beating (self claim unverified) best hedge funds back in 2010 and 2011, these were what Gary posted. Mind you, when Gary’s timing in Gold was excellent, he claimed it’s all his credits and proprietary cycles. Now when he loss big time, he blamed it all on Manipulation and not his failed cycle analysis. Enjoy.
2) A HREF=”http://smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/2010/04/where-are-manipulators.html”> http://smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/2010/04/where-are-manipulators.html
Fxck You Gary.
It’s Time to come clean on your Failed Cycle and Subscription.
You really don’t like this guy do you?
Why not just not listen?
Sean is trying to make a point here. The point is to show the truth about Gary so people can decide based on real information (i.e. Gary’s horrible track record). Telling Sean to not listen is like censuring somebody because he disagrees with the government. In any case you can suggest Sean that he refrains from using profane language but I thought that the spirit of this blog was to spur debate and interchange ideas. Well….not everybody has the same ideas and not everybody likes Gary.
We will definitely get a track record here.
I find it kind of interesting; however, that only about three people have a problem with Gary.
You have been saying that for months. You ALREADY have Gary’s track record. Several people, including Sean, Mike and me have provided it to you. Anyway….it does not matter; please do not take Gary away from your show; he is actually entertaining on top of being an excellent contrarian indicator.
As far as being three people that disagree with Gary…mmmm…let me count: Mike, Sean, me, James-the lesser-, Mark. That makes us five (not three) just on this post alone. I am not counting previous Gary’s posts in where you will find plenty more. As I said….Gary is entertaining and a good contrarian indicator but do not take him seriously. Sorry for pointing out facts and hard core data; I did not mean to be disrespectful but that’s usually what I do….I go by facts and hard core data.
Thank you Al for a very entertaining show and being able to spur debate; I appreciate it.
Thank you very much Pibe!
Gold is now behaving like the Syrian issue will be ironed out without military action and the FED will taper. The 300 dma has now turned down for the first time in 12 years.
Time to have some cavities filled!!!!
Just about done with Gary Savage. I’ve been following the SMT for years, used to be a subscriber. I agree with changing views according to the market, but if you’re going to charge subscribers for a “system” that is supposed to be reasonably reliable, your opinion should not swing 180 degrees as often as Gary’s does.
Just a couple of weekends ago Gary opened up his “weekend report” for 1.00 because he was so sure that big things were about to start up in the precious metals market and now he’s in panic mode claiming we could blast all the way back down to the 1000? Where was THAT disclosure a couple of weeks ago.
If you’re a subscriber go back and read the archives and count how many times Gary has drawn gold with his BIG RED ARROW blasting upwards and beyond the parameters of the chart.
Between SMT and KWN it’s no wonder “gold bugs” have such a bad name….
-One unhappy guy.
I can’t agree or disagree with you at this point.
My question remains, why do you personally listen to Gary and KWN?
Sean – unfortunately for you ( people in your situation) you were the ones I was directing my above missive about. Following a tout, whether they are dressed up in a plaid coat and pants at the racetrack, a three piece suit with expensive gold watch, or a black shirt will never end up making one happy. They make there living off subscribers, not being right.
Chuck GS and all his kind, and get back in the game of your own two feet! Hang in there!
And I would add, Sean listen to everyone; don’t depend on one individual; think for yourself; and, take action that you believe is correct based on having a personal wealth of knowledge.
Like I said last night, gold is behaving like Syria will be ironed out without military intervention and the FED will taper. Down hard this morning and dropping fast. Off $20.
The bears set the trap again!
$1000 here we come!
Don’t agree, but remember I have said more than once that I am not the prettiest baby in the nursery. Just a pretty well informed one!
Like I said gold in jeopardy of manipulation. Stocks to test the highs. If the miners had continued to act well then i would be in the bull camp also but they started acting crappy last week. I took notice and exited at the top of the rally.
Probably should have waited to buy that NUGT position. At the moment gold bugs need to be on the sidelines until we see how far this correction is going to go.
Don’t worry; NUGT is always very volatile; I still have my 74% profits I made during the past weeks; I have my stops in place and I can easily take a 10-15% loss. No big deal compared to the profits I already made.
I guess having controversy on the site produces megabits
The goal is not to produce MegaHits!
I am not trying to be KWN; Kitco; or, anything else.
I just really enjoy doing this!
Well…..Gary certainly spurs more debate and produces more hits and comments than most of your other guests and that should be a good reason to keep bringing him in (regardless of his expertise).
Al I wasn’t referring to you when I talked about tout who not put up their own money. Was referring to GS. best
Never thought you were!
With the risk of being boring, $1430 is big resistance from gold all the way back from late 2010. I feel that manybe gold should never have gone above $1430 were it not for excessive speculation. There should have been a big correction from $1430 after the huge run from the 2008 low of $680 (more than a double). Instead, gold took a pause and then went to $1900.
That was “A MISTAKE.” Gold should have taken a big correction and gone down to test $1030 from the topside. Instead it went to $1309 and then roared to $1920 and silver to $50. Wrong move.
Now we are back in the reality zone and gold again cannot get above $1430 without a big re-injection of fresh over-leveraged speculators, who are currently ABSENT from this market.
You could be right. Gold tracks U.S. national debt very closely. That debt has doubled since 2006. Gold averaged about $650 in 2006, so, at over $1300, it is now back in step with the rate of debt growth. Since markets are forward looking, always discounting the future, we should not be surprised when gold again gets ahead of itself. $1430 is a much better deal today than it was on that first approach 3 years ago.
The time it takes for the debt to double is shrinking. The most recent doubling took just over 7 years while the doubling before that took about 13 years. At this rate, it could double again in less than 4 years (faster still, if interest rates rise). If so, I think we can count on gold doing the same and probably much more due to overshoot.
I do agree with you.
Gary has openly admitted the Goldcents blog thing is him as a “ghost writer” many many times. His story is he has a “marketing partner” who wanted to try out some new things so Gary agreed to write the content for him. I’ve always thought it was odd.
I was too a sub for several years a while back. Gary would routinely mock anyone who would claim manipulation in the gold markets. He was iron clad in his view that it NEVER happened and would ridicule anyone who said otherwise.
He correctly called a few thing–the silver blow off top in 2011 & had folks in hard core AGQ positions. The problem was he blew the exit. He told the subs he would exit when silver hit 50 and when it only hit the upper 49’s he sat tight and rode that thing down into the ground along with his subs. Many got destroyed and they jumped into AGQ near the top. Then, he sold almost the EXACT bottom in a panic. After this, he posted charts about how silver was busted and it would take a few years to repair the chart and that silver would test the break out of 18-20. Great call but he ignored it and get long SLV leaps.
There have been many many more…I’d say coin flip or having your dog bark one or twice is more effective, but for some reason he’s still out there selling his “service”.
This all to say I have not traded this mess well either…It IS manipulated and TPTB have OWNED the silly gold and silver bulls repeatedly and will continue to do so.
Yep. You are absolutely right.But he got it right this time. Oh well…..eventually he was going to get one call right. Now wait for the victory lap….”it usually starts something like this….As I have been telling my subscribers everything went exactly as expected” hehe!! He is funny!!!
I’m really hoping Big Al reads comments like Chuck’s, mine and others who have pointed out Gary’s cycle analysis is highly inaccurate and unpredictable. Instead of interviewing guys like Gary who regularly make bold calls and sometimes, by luck of the draw, turn out to be right – go back to interviewing mining company CEOs or analysts who have a better track record. Gary is amateur at best!
We will be doing more interviews with mining execs.
Yes he does. But Gary brings a lot of attention and hits that’s what Big Al needs. Let’s be honest here; Gary has no proper background and has no idea whatsoever about minimal basic technical analysis nor economics but he is a good salesman and brings a lot of attention. That’s what Big Al likes about him. He will keep interviewing this scammer that’s for sure.
No Pibe, you are not correct on this one.
Obviously, you have a major problem with Gary. That is your business and not mine.
As I have said many, many times “I listen to everyone and then make up my own mind”.
I am not endorsing any person; any company; or, anything on this site.
Everyone knows just exactly where I stand.
If I loose (PEM or ITH as prime examples) I am man enough to admit it and move ahead.
Sorry Al I did not mean to be pessimistic. Yes I do have a problem with Gary because I have been a subscriber of his and I know exactly what kind of person he is. You also said that you lost big money following another guy; well how would you feel about interviewing that gut in your program? Same thing here. Sorry about my comments I do not want to offend anyone but put yourself in my shoes and If somebody were to speak wonders about the guy who you thought was good and ended up being not so knowledgeable, wouldn’t you try to warn people about the reality and the facts about that person? Just think about it. I am owning my mistakes and trying to warn people that Gary is not what he claims to be; that’s all. Sorry but that does not make me a coward. And sorry again if I offended anybody. Thanks.
A sincere thank you for your comment Pibe!