Monday and The Doctor Is In
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Not so sure about that James. I agree with Al here actually. Gold is not getting smashed down right now. Strange anyone would say that. It is up on the day and looking positive despite my negative feelngs about it last week.
The other day it got smashed, I dont see anyone saying it got smashed today.
I mentioned the “crash” might be a slow down move about 1 1/2 years ago.
And it could get to $1000. My thinking is the “fundimentals” are the markets are manipulated and the manipulaters are far more powerful than people give credit.
Again, doc saying down,sideways and then we see. Same story. I do apreciate doc but its constantly “we will see” sounds pretty kodiak to me. Even tho, a month ago it was Sept will be good for PMs. nope. not so far anyway.
Personaly, I have said for a long time, “i dont see gold going much lower than $1000, it is a mnipulated market, but the Chinese will not lose face to their people.
That is if it even gets that low but so far it sure isnt going up.
Anyway, I think once we hit that low, whatever it is, kwn says buying should be huge below $1300 like the Indian buying is not huge right now, once we hit whateve low it is, gold should turn, but maybe we have to completly run out of physical, the problem there is of course we dont have a clue how much is stored.
it’s pure inflationary too tho James which, as you know, is good for PMs (if not now, then long term… it will play out). I say, the longer these prices remain in these ranges, the greater the upside moves in the long term. Gold of course doesn’t “get none of the QE”, but remember only a bit more than half of 85b is MBS, not “stocks”.
Starting to look like you are correct.
If Yellen has the job (90%) in the bag, I’m surprised gold isn’t up big time simply based on “buy on rumor” and more QE. One would believe that come this Wednesday gold will drop below 1300.
The last round of QE did nothing for gold. I think this was the most counter intuitive outcome anyone could have imagined. The stocks got a green light, gold stalled, people got tired of waiting while they saw the gains the stock market was making and they gave up. Now momentum breeds more downside as it becomes self fulfilling.
Also the $ has been remarkably resilient, it has been able to find support above 80 every time. Whenever it flirts with that level it comes back
It scares me when Al says he doesn’t see gold going down to 1000. It scared me several months ago when he said he didn’t gold going below 1321 and he scared me last month when he said he didn’t think the conventional market would go back up to reach a new high. I wish Al will would say he thinks gold will go down below 1300 then I might not be scared anymore and I would actually buy some more.
Morning Caeronlego,
You may very well see me with a bit of a different tune after I finish some research!
“The Money They Can’t Print”
On the subject of gold, my good friend Jim Grant shared an email with me that he sent to an investment committee he is on. The committee was considering selling its gold position, and what follows are Jim’s reasons as to why that would be a bad idea:
“I just read the HSBC piece. It asserts, among other things, that gold’s bull run is over, that the future is ‘foreseeable’ and that ‘our average price forecasts for this year’ will rise.
“It seems that the analyst is just as confused as the rest of us. The future is not ‘foreseeable,’ neither by the central bankers nor anybody else. We may handicap the odds on future events, but that is a very different thing from foreseeing those events unfold.
“Naturally, in the gold market, price action is mesmerizing. The metal earns nothing and pays no dividend. Impossible to value by CFA-approved techniques, gold becomes its price chart. These days, the chart looks bad.
The One Time You Can Divide By Zero”But there is, ultimately, a kind of fundamental value. The gold price is finally the reciprocal of the world’s faith in the thoughts and methods of Ben S. Bernanke and of his successor at the Federal Reserve. The greater the confidence, the lower the price, and vice versa. If we, as a committee, trust the Federal Reserve to remove the trillions of dollars it has materialized out of nowhere, exactly when the time is ripe, we should be out of the metal and out of the mining shares. If, however, we continue to entertain well-founded doubts, I suggest that we stick. On further weakness, I suggest that we add.
“Gold’s latest sinking spell perversely coincides with the dwindling of America’s geopolitical status in the world. Gold is selling off as uncertainty grows about the identity and thinking of the next Fed chairman, about the efficacy of QE and about the world’s tolerance to endure even the slightest tightening in the Fed’s unprecedentedly easy monetary policy.
All In, Whether We Like It or Not”For the first time in history, the world is on a universal fiat-money standard. And for the first time in history, central banks are pressing interest rates to zero and doubling down on zero percent through quantitative easing.
“If I were about 30 years younger, I would assure you that these policies will certainly, absolutely and indubitably fail. Forty years ago, I could have given you the date. But I have learned enough to understand that, in markets, nothing is out of the question. Gold — especially now, when it is out of favor — is a hedge against what we can’t know but which, based on centuries of monetary history, we are well advised to suspect. Pure and simple, gold is the money they can’t print. It’s good to have a little.”
Right now everything is being manipulated. Gold, stocks, interest rates, Government numbers etc etc. When the FOMC decision comes out this week the fed will announce a taper but this will be a lie. The same or even more money printing will continue but they will just bury it somewhere so no one will see it.
This whole system is soooooo rigged it just makes me sick!
The whole problema right now is that you cannot predict what the PTB will do next. I believe it all revolves around protecting the Dollar as the reserve currency. The way things look right now, they are getting their way. Everyone is interested in stocks and real estate. No one is interested in gold. What else do they need to do? They don’t need to monkey Jack gold down to 1000 bucks. If they do the Indians will go on a buying binge. They will go back to buying 100 tons of phyzz each month. That fact is not consistant with what the PTB wants to happen right now in light of large quantity’s of phyzz being in short supply in the East. I agree whole heartedly with the “Doc”. His predictions seem very plausible.
My top performers today gained 8%, 9%, 11%, 20% and 25%, while gold fell slightly. Smart money is accumulating.
Top performers in which sector?
Can we now say gold is getting smashed?
Its probably a good guess that the PTB will monkey Jack gold down a Little on Wednesday when they announce the 10 bill taper. Its to be expected. Stocks will be allowed to rise.
The “golden apple”, gold and apple, turned into poison. Both charts are very damaged.
I wouldn’t even look at Apple above $270.
That final quick hit on gold today, that took out Friday’s low, reeked of intervention. Whether it leads to further downside or not, sell stops were tripped.
Perhaps we can see a double bottom here on gold at $1180?
Gary Wagner of Kitco was talking a couple of weeks ago, hey gold is in minor wave 1 of major wave 1 up of a new bull market. What BS! It makes me wonder why anyone listens to people who major on Kitco. HA! Except Nadler!!!!!
Anyway, the move below $1349 wipes out Wagner’s Elliott Wave nonsense in one swoop.
Al, do you know where out charming friend Jon Nadler is these days? He certainly looks pretty smart in his absence.
I have heard nothing from Jon.
My guess is that he got pretty angry at me.
He may be looking good now but he was not for a lot of yeears.
If gold is down on the spot market and up on the futures market, then all that nonsense about backwardation has also been erased.
Backwardation happens for a reason. It should be seen as a warning that risks to the system are believed, by the market, to be elevated. One’s response (overreaction) to that warning could be unwarranted, but backwardation itself is not nonsense.
I think it is premature to expect a retest of the June low.
You have to luv the way the gold & silver fraudulent manipulaters team of Ben Bernanke & Federal Reserve Panel, J.P. Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and HSBC are referred to as “They” or “The Powers That Be”. All these people should be in jail for the rest of their lives and doing hard labor every day. Satanic evil are those people. As John Lennon sang “I’m just sittin here watching the wheels go round and round. I really love to watch them roll”.
Fred, the manipulation problem is complex. Some of the manipulation is driven by the Treasury Dept. That part of the manipulation is legal. Any manipulation done for the benefit of the bullion banks is not legal. Because much of the manipulation is done by the Treasury Dept it makes it that much harder for the CFTC to do its job. The Treasure Dept wants its actions to be kept secret for National Security reasons. Bullion banks take advantage of this because they know that no investigation will ever be followed thru on. I would be very surprised if the KWN revelation starring Andrew Macguire makes any difference in the scheme of things.
Glen, you made the case for why we are supposed to have free markets (not fraudulent manipulated markets) and also for the abolishment of the Federal Reserve (as stated by Ron Paul numerous times) which serves the sole interests of the big banks who are its members. It’s all going to blow up one day.
I asked this question last week and never got an answer – you do not see $1000 gold, did you ever thinks you would see $1300 gold?
It will not be a sudden drop, it will be a long slow decline with mild rallies to keep people hanging on, that’s how bear markets work
The stock market could care less about world events, this is all about Yellen and print baby print! Gold gets none of the QE as it all goes into stocks.