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September Song VI
A few years ago in a misguided effort to ensure better safety conditions for thoroughbred race horses the racing industry implemented synthetic racing surfaces. These racing surfaces were designed to replace traditional dirt and turf surfaces. Made of various substances, they were designed to provide better cushion (supposedly) and more drainage. The racing industry embraced the new synthetic surface. Whether or not these surfaces were successful in achieving their goal remains to be seen. So far there doesn’t appear to be any statistical difference in injuries to race horses running on synthetic racing surfaces as opposed to traditional dirt or turf racing surfaces. Perhaps the sample space is still too small to make a concrete conclusion.
What is clear however is this was a game changer. Since each race track is its own entity with its own jurisdiction , some race tracks implemented the new racing surface, while other tracks held on to tradition and shunned the change.
The result for the serious handicapper: chaos.
Literally overnight all my figures, all my data, all my edge became obsolete.
Since I had no way of equating a synthetic surface with a dirt surface I had to toss out all my figures. Since horses travel all over the country in search of better purses and easier spots it was like comparing apples to oranges.
When I had no figures I had no edge.
It is hard enough to beat a game when they take anywhere from 12% to 20% off the top. That is a huge percentage disadvantage that you need to overcome. That is why I always insist on value. You need to turn the percentages in your favor.
When you have no better information than the amateur it is time to make a decision.
Invest time and energy in building a statistical sample size of synthetic results that could take years, or simply retire and walk away. I choose to walk away.
NOW we are all on the edge of our seats waiting to see if one ninny is going to “taper”
When an entire economy becomes dependent on a never ending supply of cheap money dispensed by a muttonhead and his cretin comrades this is not a good state of affairs.
In a nutshell this is chaos. And no one can handicap this (or should.)
There is no doubt gold has risen on the back of QE with the exception of this latest round.
Now we will watch and wait what the new direction will be, keeping in mind that that direction can change at any time. It is clear no one is driving because they don’t have control of the steering wheel!
This is an environment filled with pit falls and land mines. You need to tread carefully.
We can talk about all the so called “fundamentals” for the gold case, and there are many.
But when you have an overriding variable that is trumping all else you need to respect that.
Respect the price. Remember hope and patience is not a strategy.
Watch for today’s FOMC kabuki theatre only because your competitors do, stay nimble.
And don’t be a afraid to walk away, there always is another play.
When they changed to synthetic race tracks they changed the locks, my keys no longer opened the door to huge profits.
With an out of control big brother FED, market manipulators who have the run of the house, and a self destructing government who will snatch and seize your freedoms and your assets you need to have a game plan.
Remember “not in” is still an investment choice.
Don’t be married to gold. Remember you lose more money on good poker hands than bad ones.
For this reason I stay committed to my $1500 end of September cutoff.
Can gold get to $1500? Absolutely.
Can panicked sellers throw in the towel and take it to $1000? Absolutely.
Bottom line is when I walk away I have a profit.
Keep hitting doubles!
Live to fight another day
Mentioned your feelings in today’s Editorial with Doc.
I love the horse race analogies, James. Always enjoy your point of view.
Gary has a new interview with Tekoa Da Silva posted on his site where he expounds on his theory that we are going to see gold go lower and possibly visit 1000 dollars per oz. I agree, we are going to see gold drifts lower in the next few days or weeks but I am certainly not convinced that we will see 1000 dollar gold. This is wait and see time folks. I truly appreciate Gary’s opinions.
Hey Big Al….these are -as you said- very Interesting thoughts…very, very, very Interesting thoughts! …….lately he was rather Bearish…….
How to buy a house for $50,000 cash;
-hope for $1,000 gold, buy 50 ounces, and wait.
“I’m expecting that you’ll probably see a single family, medium priced home for 50 ounces of gold or less”.
~Mike Maloney at about 20 minutes into this 29 minute video.
-hero or zero?
I added to my CEF.A (tsx) position at the open today (14.75)
Very well could happen, Irwin. I just think the wait will be a long one.
I don’t think there is any question that the interventions have already been successful. Every accomplishment by the “bears” recently was the result of interventions at critical levels and, more importantly, during very thinly traded hours. The breaking of support at the 1350-60 area was made possible by a 3 a.m. hit that caused a 20 second halt. Then, in order to take out the Friday low at $1304.50, “someone” hit gold after 4 p.m. on Monday and again, after 4 p.m. on Tuesday.
That we had this correction is natural/normal. That it had help along the way is obvious. The smash and grab successfully shook out many longs and increased the fear/uncertainty of many bulls. It also increased the confidence/certainty in those with a bearish view.
Thursday night: http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media/2013/09/MW-BI308_nanex__MG_20130912123414.jpg
I have to agree with you Mathew. My bearish view has increased dramatically. The good news is that I am usually wrong about things like that.
Note that both bulls and bears are plundered by manipulation. Bulls dump while bears get short due to these “painted” false signals. If Sean is right about Gary’s advice to his subscribers to dump everything, we have a perfect example of the damage caused.
Glen – I don’t want to speak for Matthew but he has always been bullish. I think to a fault.
It is only natural your view would change to bearish given the events that took place.
Is now the time to go bearish? I dont think so. If you are changing your mind the you really don’t know your mind. Stay focused. Hang in there. You need a plan and stick to it.
James, in my trading, I sell strength and by weakness. Big picture, yes, I am “always” bullish, and have had no reason to be otherwise, so far. But note that when gold was about $1400 a couple of weeks ago, I did say that a move to the 55 dma at $1317 would not surprise me. I do believe that $1350 could have easily held if it weren’t for that Thursday night flash dump.
If I exit at the end of September it is not because I am bearish. I know my % of gold of my overall wealth (90%) I know my timeframe, and I know my goals. I cut through the clutter and determine if gold can achieve those goals. No emotion involved. You need a game plan. I also would strongly advise you not to say things like “you are usually wrong about these things” That is definitely the wrong defeatist attitude. Every day when I showed up at the racetrack the most important thing I brought with me was confidence. My attitude wash “I am going to crush the races today” and I most often did. If I walked into the track without confidence I would have got chewed up a d spit out. Same here. People misinterpreted by September cutoff as if I have no conviction. That couldn’t be any more incorrect. You need to take ownership! Hang in there!
Your point about confidence is a good one, but I think Glen is just being humble in much the same way that Jim Rogers says he’s the world’s worst timer.
Never thought you were a fool!
I just purchase with a different time frame. Maybe I am the fool!
Matthew I agree the flash dump might have derailed gold. However if it is strong it should recover that. It would only be a temporary setback, nothing more. Bottom line we need to see the fallout from today’s FOMC
I agree, it should be just a temporary setback.
And what we have seen so far kind of surprised me.
Al, So I want you to remember today. Gary had posted on his blog in the last few days that he had advised his subscribers to DUMP gold and wait for lower gold prices, possibly $1000.
Today 9/18/2013 Bernanke said QE continue, and Gold/Silver/GDX all running higher at full speed. I am sure Gary + Subscribers are left waiting on sidelines, empty handed.
If Gary comes back next month interview and said “As I said .. I predicted …”, you should throw your chair at him, o.k? Deal?!
Check gary losing post one after another here:
AL, did you ask Gary Savage again on his manipulation theory? Or you are throwing away your integrity by knowingly interviewing a liar to drum up your web traffic?
When Gary was having his hot hands beating best hedge funds back in 2010 and 2011, these were what said — he claimed he beat other gold timers and hedge fund all due to his superior proprietary cycles. He ridiculed other gold timers who blame everything on manipulation. He claimed his success proved that there was absolutely no manipulation in the world! Now when Gary loss big time, he blamed it all on Manipulation and not his failed cycle analysis.
2) http://smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/2010/04/where-are-manipulators.htmlâ€ť> http://smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/2010/04/where-are-manipulators.html
The links are
I got subs out at the exact top on Sept. 3 and back in today at much lower prices.
If you had actually listened to the interview you would know that if the scenario occurred I would get back in. That is exactly what happened today.
Great commentary Gary. I have signed up to try out your site for a week, no obligation, not to search for evidence of your market calls, because I am not nit picking but just to see what it’s like!
Absolutely fascinating.you commentary here. Gold has infact blasted up through $1350 abnd is now at $1365 at 23:00 UK Time (BST).
Gary went out on a limb and limb not sawn off.
Todays’ Score: Gary Savage 1, Limb 0.
I am completely frurstrated by not being able to get into the site after I paid my fee to subscribe to Smart Money Tracker—-I have worked with you before and need this info immediately.