KER Commentary – Wed 18 Sep, 2013

Looks like our panel of experts pretty much called it!

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show


Featuring:
Gary SavageRichard PostmaRick Ackerman

Comments:
  1. On September 18, 2013 at 12:18 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Al, I think Doc is just as unemotional as Rick. Sorry to nitpick.

    • On September 18, 2013 at 12:35 pm,
      franky says:

      NO eat stop eat and buy GOLD NO crass no no and off the wold BUY GOLD SISSYS UP UP AND AWAY 1650 $ use coming !!!!!

      • On September 18, 2013 at 12:37 pm,
        franky says:

        al buy boy BUY SILVER AL NO TINK BUY !!!

        • On September 18, 2013 at 1:10 pm,
          Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

          franky you’re back!!

          • On September 18, 2013 at 1:14 pm,
            franky says:

            i com back only a long walk with the dog

          • On September 18, 2013 at 3:02 pm,
            Silverbug Dave says:

            Walking the dog can be a code phrase for all kinds of things Franky! 😉

  2. On September 18, 2013 at 12:24 pm,
    Clark says:

    Thanks guys, appreciate the comments and your willingness to appear twice today!

    • On September 18, 2013 at 2:00 pm,
      Cory says:

      As do we Clark. We also appreciate all of you who comment and listen throughout the day.

      Cory

  3. On September 18, 2013 at 12:24 pm,
    Matthew says:

    By the way, I did say this morning that I thought gold would go up after the announcement. I bet Doc is no longer expecting gold and silver to head a little lower.

    I had been calling this correction just a smash and grab, and that appears to have been the case. It just goes to show how charts can be painted and cause some to call for $1000 (or the end of the world! Ahhhh!!!).
    And no, I am not the prettiest baby in the nursery!

    • On September 18, 2013 at 1:38 pm,
      Bird Man says:

      Holy crap Batman….if todays action keeps up you just might see your 1500 dollars before the week is out never mind waiting for the whole month. Gold is gone vertical. I will have to eat my words I am afraid to say. This is just too much.

      • On September 18, 2013 at 2:04 pm,
        Cory says:

        I think this recent action has changed a lot of bears minds on where gold is going. I did not see gold going vertical but I much say it puts a smile on my face to see the chart…finally.

        Nice to see you two getting along. Nice call Matthew… did you see it jumping up to over 1350 let alone 1360 today?

        Cory

        • On September 18, 2013 at 2:42 pm,
          Matthew says:

          Since the correction began, I thought we would see a strong move higher after the announcement. This is why I said that we could see $1500 by the end of September. I didn’t even think about trying to put a target on the immediate move post announcement, but I have obviously been more bullish than probably anyone here. When replying to Glen on Friday, I said: “The only part I disagree with is that the price will stay down after the announcement.”

          • On September 18, 2013 at 3:05 pm,
            Silverbug Dave says:

            I have downloaded AL and Cory’s podcasts and am awaiting to see if Rick Acky thinks that today’s action in gold constitutes an impulse leg!

          • On September 18, 2013 at 3:26 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Funny!

          • On September 18, 2013 at 10:11 pm,
            Bird Man says:

            Cracks me up too. I got a pretty good laugh when Richard called it a “bump” and some one else said this was an “uptick”. Probably we are all so accustomed to being dissapointed that the language we are using is still coming from that other frame of mind. Did this set any records by any chance? Gold reached 1388 and change. Time to start watching for a reversal I suppose but I won’t be going short into the weekend after that rally. I hate gambling.

  4. On September 18, 2013 at 12:27 pm,
    Chico Garcon says:

    I am not the brightest person in the world but I listened to what Bernanke said concerning tapering & the current state of affairs NEVER met the HIS rationale to begin tapering. Why did some smart people NOT see this? I thought Bernanke was very clear.

    • On September 18, 2013 at 2:12 pm,
      Cory says:

      You are right Chico, the current state of affairs never met his rational for tapering. I for one thought that the Fed would move forward with a small “token taper” even without the data they needed. I was wrong but am happy that I was wrong because the facts show that the economy is not recovering. Unfortunately this shows that the Fed is still in a terrible position as well as the American economy.

      Cory

      • On September 18, 2013 at 5:06 pm,
        Chico Garcon says:

        I am just trying to understand the rationale of why most saw tapering coming. I thought the goals of the Fed are very clear. That is one thing they rarely lie about-their goals.
        Thanks for all that you do.

        • On September 19, 2013 at 7:11 am,
          Big Al says:

          I have to agree with you Chico!

    • On September 21, 2013 at 10:53 am,
      Jack_Tripper says:
  5. On September 18, 2013 at 12:31 pm,
    Jed Davis says:

    Fed’s direction was easily predictable. Our economy is too weak and our middle class too poor to absorb any shock. While it gives a boost to the stock market, I wonder if the short-term morphine drip won’t come back to haunt us. The question is this: At what point does the world stop losing confidence in the intrinsic value of our currency?

    • On September 18, 2013 at 12:51 pm,
      Wayne says:

      Please don’t use “intrinsic” when applied to value. Value is mutable and assigned to objects by men, it is not a fixed property of a substance.

      • On September 18, 2013 at 2:45 pm,
        Jed Davis says:

        History says otherwise. Gold speaks of intrinsic value. You can assign whatever numbers you want to it. But tome, it is what it really buys. What it is really valued at in terms of what it can buy. Example: A relative bought a house in the New York area in 1962 for $12,500. Gold was at $35 per oz. When they put it on the market two years ago, I divided the listing price by the price of an ounce of Gold and amazingly, I came up with almost the exact same multiple. The value had not changed. You can use anything you want. I will stick with intrinsic.

        • On September 18, 2013 at 6:26 pm,
          Big Al says:

          Me too, Jed!

        • On September 18, 2013 at 10:18 pm,
          Bird Man says:

          OK Jed. I am up to your challenge (because it is my nature). We always hear how an ounce of gold could buy a good suit of clothes years back and it still buys a good suit of clothes today. But there is one thing that gold has gained against that makes almost no sense. That is silver of course. How much we might have bought in Roman times versus now has changed dramatically. The insanity of a gold/silver ratio of 16 to 1 versus 60 to 1 has been warping minds for a long time. Speaking of which I better go check that ratio again. Think it went in silvers favour since yesterday.

  6. On September 18, 2013 at 12:32 pm,
    Glen says:

    I didn’t get all the news. I guess they didn’t taper? Nice uptick in gold. But, we have to see if there is follow thru. I am not excited at this point but I can assure you I never entertained selling any of my metals no matter the result. My silver investment is so underwater that I expect a lot of time to expire before I get my first opportunity to get rid of it. Gold on the other hand is a different story. I have a limited amount of gold and I will not sell it under any circumstances except disaster. Gold bullion is a keeper as long as what you have is a reasonable percentage of your investment capital. Should I get the opportunity to sell my silver in the next year or so I will and I will buy more gold bullion. Gold is for savings. Speculate if you wish on other items. Don’t mind me. I love gold bullion. I am not looking to make a profit on gold. I totally believe gold will protect and serve. Not make one rich nor famous. I have lately lost my bullish opinion on gold but I am glad I own some even though I paid over 1700 for the bulk of it. I sleep well at night knowing that if something happened to me my wife will have something to fall back on even if she complains for the moment that I am not showering her with worthless trinkets in the short term.

    • On September 18, 2013 at 12:39 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Glenn, this is the real deal. GDXJ is up 11% and GDX is up almost 10%. The mean reversion is finally ON for the whole sector.

    • On September 18, 2013 at 12:47 pm,
      Bird Man says:

      I don’t know if we can all what just happened an uptick, Glen. More like a rocket ride. I missed this big jump altogether even though I was also ambivalent on the taper and was sitting as a wallflower. Lots of good calls today from many different guys though. I will hand it to those of you of who bet on gold today (and even more on those who bet on silver!). There must be a few happy campers out there today.

      • On September 18, 2013 at 12:58 pm,
        Lore says:

        When I got up and looked at the screen this morning, I felt like smashing something. Whenever I feel like smashing something and just selling everything, that’s usually the time to start cherry-picking again. LOL

        • On September 18, 2013 at 1:39 pm,
          Bird Man says:

          By smashing do you mean you were REALLY happy?

        • On September 18, 2013 at 2:00 pm,
          Big Al says:

          Yes it is Lore!

      • On September 18, 2013 at 1:55 pm,
        Big Al says:

        I think that there are Bird. I personally was not convinced this morning that it would turn out the way that it did.

        I guess I am really not the prettiest baby in the nursery!

        • On September 18, 2013 at 2:40 pm,
          Bird Man says:

          Surprised the hell out of me too, Al. Usually I have a better handle on it but I could not have made THIS call. Weird how Gary just about nailed it perfectly. He gets the big laugh today. Just hope he made his bets to enjoy it. His last post above coming ahead of the taper announcement is really pretty good.

          • On September 18, 2013 at 2:44 pm,
            Matthew says:

            I get to laugh today too, Bird Man! I have been a buyer of juniors since last week.

          • On September 18, 2013 at 6:23 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Yes, but as Gary said he did not predict it. He said if it happens than he believes that we could be on our way!

          • On September 18, 2013 at 10:21 pm,
            Bird Man says:

            Nice work Matthew. You get a big pat on the back and words of congratulations. Just wish I could have enjoyed some of that bonanza too. Chikened out at the last minute though.

          • On September 18, 2013 at 10:52 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Thanks Bird Man, I appreciate that.

  7. On September 18, 2013 at 12:33 pm,
    benb says:

    I just listened to Gary yesterday. He said, “IF” gold goes right over 1350. Well, I couldnt even have guessed that was possible.
    I hope Gary is about new highs. Lets see if it closes over $1350.
    Rick was right about no taper, I really thought like Doc, a little taper so they could shout “look how good the economy is going”

    • On September 18, 2013 at 12:36 pm,
      Chico Garcon says:

      How could the Fed have said that when it did not meet their stated objectives. They were not going to taper just to. taper. Right, wrong or indifferent, they have stated goals and those goals have not been reached.

      • On September 18, 2013 at 12:55 pm,
        benb says:

        Chico, other than they can do whatever they want and every word out of their mouths is a lie, by tapering they could have said they no longer needed so much “qe” as the economy is improving and even used it as proof. The american people would have believed it. Lets be honust, less than 1% even consider gold, how well informed are they?

        • On September 18, 2013 at 1:36 pm,
          Chico Garcon says:

          Why would they state their objectives and then engage in a manner not consistent with those objectives? They are NOT going to lie about those things. They are NOT going to intentionally introduce uncertainty into the markets.

          • On September 18, 2013 at 1:51 pm,
            benb says:

            Maybe your right Chico. But I for one NEVER forget that the fed is there to TAKE MY MONEY, and everyone elses to make themselves rich. lol. And over the last 100 years thay have done extremly well at it.
            Not one word do I believe from the fed or the government as its the fed that pulls those strings.
            But maybe your right, maybe they consitantly tell everyone exactly what their going to do making it really easy for all of us to make money. All we need do is what they tell us. But I kinda doubt it. Just me maybe.

          • On September 18, 2013 at 10:28 pm,
            Bird Man says:

            Maybe not through the words of the Fed Chair directly, Chico but they sure got the message across in other ways. As an example, the commentaries of John Hilsenrath that get dissected so closely. And then there were all the remarks from the other Fed presidents leaving little doubt taper was on the menu. It was a setup for a September short blitz that they could invariably use as fuel to lift the markets higher yet. Some Hedgies got badly burned here. That seems certain. I actually think the whole drama was organized and directed in advance. The boys must be killing themselves laughing because almost nobody was ready. So this was played just like any good battle and I think they won.

        • On September 18, 2013 at 2:00 pm,
          Big Al says:

          Not very well informed benb!

          • On September 18, 2013 at 2:28 pm,
            Chico Garcon says:

            That’s a mistake Benb. The Fed is telling you they want inflation. The fed is telling you they want to increase exports, create jobs. They are telling you parameters. You should listen. The lies are used to further this agenda and they use fancy words to obfuscaste the truth not deny it. They are not dump enough to say, “Hey, America, we. want inflation. “

          • On September 18, 2013 at 3:29 pm,
            benb says:

            Chico, i agree they want inflation, they got what? 4% in food last month. Yes they want inflation, otherwise its default.
            But I am not going to believe anything they say.
            But for me it doesnt matter, so maybe I dont think things thru as well as others do. I am predominantly into phyzz, my lousey trading is a sidebar.

          • On September 19, 2013 at 6:20 am,
            Chico Garcon says:

            No Birdman. I cannot agree with. Bernanke was very clear for a Fes Chair. He and his Governors went out of their way after the 1st taper remark to clarify what would justify taper. Most of the market overanalyzed and made erroneous assumptions.

    • On September 18, 2013 at 2:29 pm,
      Cory says:

      I was in the same boat as you and Doc benb. I thought Bernanke would try to cover up the poor data with a small taper. If Gary and Rick are right this could be the start of a very nice run.

      Cory

      • On September 18, 2013 at 3:32 pm,
        benb says:

        Shoulda asked me what I was tinnin Cory, just do the opposite and you make money. lol Excluding owning phyzz, jury is still out on that.

  8. On September 18, 2013 at 12:40 pm,
    Sean says:

    Al, So I want you to remember today. Gary had posted on his blog in the last few days that he had advised his subscribers to DUMP gold and wait for lower gold prices, possibly $1000.

    Today 9/18/2013 Bernanke said QE continue, and Gold/Silver/GDX all running higher at full speed. I am sure Gary + Subscribers are left waiting on sidelines, empty handed.

    If Gary comes back next month interview and said “As I said .. I predicted …”, you should throw your chair at him, o.k? Deal?!

    Check gary losing post one after another here:
    http://www.smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/

    • On September 18, 2013 at 1:13 pm,
      benb says:

      Thats why I posted earlier Gary said “IF”.
      Personally I wouldnt call that a “call” I too can say, “IF” gold goes to $3000 today it will go to $5000 etc. I dont see it as much of a call, BUT, at least Gary had a thought that it was possible go over $1350 today.

      Not really sure if Al and Cory should really be touting it as “our experts nailed it” tho.
      Maybe a little embelishment is within reason tho as it is kinda “interesting” news. lol

      • On September 18, 2013 at 1:19 pm,
        Matthew says:

        It seems like a “call” to me if Gary told his subs to dump as Sean said he did. I was buying for the last week and a half (and said so here) while people were obviously getting scared and giving me their shares –cheap.

        • On September 18, 2013 at 10:31 pm,
          Bird Man says:

          Cheap Cheep! Hey….leave the birds out of this one. I did not sell or buy.

    • On September 18, 2013 at 1:37 pm,
      gary says:

      Kong,
      Here is exactly what I posted to subs this morning.

      “The miners have refused to follow gold to new lows this morning. In my opinion this is a pretty good indication that the daily cycle low is imminent. Either on the FOMC announcement this afternoon or maybe tomorrow.

      If gold were to deliver a $40-$50 rally today that would be a strong sign that the bull is going to overwhelm the manipulation.

      We will have to wait and see what happens, but if it does surge hard on the FOMC statement back up to the $1350 resistance zone that would be an incredibly bullish start on day one of a new cycle.

      If that were to happen the odds would be good that gold would break through resistance and break the manipulation. Brave traders could re-enter LEAP’s if this occurs this afternoon.

      I think this scenario requires gold to rally immediately upon the statement. No sell off and reversal. This needs to be a rocket launch right after the announcement. There needs to be no doubt the market is reversing 180 degrees.”

  9. On September 18, 2013 at 12:41 pm,
    Sean says:

    AL, did you ask Gary Savage again on his manipulation theory? Or you are throwing away your integrity by knowingly interviewing a liar to drum up your web traffic?

    When Gary was having his hot hands beating best hedge funds back in 2010 and 2011, these were what said — he claimed he beat other gold timers and hedge fund all due to his superior proprietary cycles. He ridiculed other gold timers who blame everything on manipulation. He claimed his success proved that there was absolutely no manipulation in the world! Now when Gary loss big time, he blamed it all on Manipulation and not his failed cycle analysis.

    1) http://smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/2011/09/d-wave-begins.html
    2) http://smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/2010/04/where-are-manipulators.html
    3) http://smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/2010/03/manipulation-lets-hope-so.html
    4) http://smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/2010/03/to-manipulate-or-not-to-manipulate.html

    • On September 18, 2013 at 1:39 pm,
      gary says:

      Kong/Sean,
      We exited at the exact top and I suspect most re-entered today at the bottom.

      • On September 18, 2013 at 1:57 pm,
        Matthew says:

        Did you tell them to re-enter?

        • On September 18, 2013 at 1:58 pm,
          Matthew says:

          Never mind, I just saw your post, above.

        • On September 18, 2013 at 1:59 pm,
          gary says:

          Read the comment above to see exactly what I posted to subs this morning.

  10. On September 18, 2013 at 12:46 pm,
    Glen says:

    I want to apologize to everyone for being on the taper side of the argument. I was wrong. I am not a TA analyst but I was sure that the Fed would taper. Now, the question is what is next. Will the fools load up on stocks and forget about gold? I don’t know. Gary’s suggestion that gold would go to 1000 is now out the window but he did say that he this could be the case. Gary, I still respect your work. Anything could have happened and the result was unpredictable actually. I know that hoping and praying is stupid but I still cling the fact that hoping and mostly praying will bring gold above 1500 in the short term. Again, sorry for bringing my needless negativity to the table. I will not sell my metals.

    • On September 18, 2013 at 12:52 pm,
      Matthew says:

      I really don’t think you should apologize. I am convinced that gold would have gone up either way. Technicals matter, but one has to be alert to HOW those technical signals occur, and this correction was full of manufactured signals. This is part of the reason I was so unconcerned the whole time despite some very convinced bears and some concerned bulls.

  11. On September 18, 2013 at 12:50 pm,
    ms says:

    hahah Gary nailed it again!….wait, what?

    loser

    • On September 18, 2013 at 1:58 pm,
      Big Al says:

      I have to remind you that he did not claim to have nailed it. He said specifically, “if gold goes up 50 points”. Now, let’s be fair.

  12. On September 18, 2013 at 12:52 pm,
    James (the greater) says:

    Once again the media got it wrong and took so many people down with them. I said if they taper they would have to prove that the economy can stand on its own legs and that it is like fighting in hockey. Once they take it out they can’t put it back.

    • On September 18, 2013 at 1:59 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Amen, The Greater

  13. On September 18, 2013 at 12:55 pm,
    richard says:

    Bernanke and the FOMC indicated rather strongly that they were going to taper in the fall. Even Bernanke admitted that today in the question/answer session. He was questioned what changed their minds and after his usual words of obfuscation he almost came out and admitted it was the bond market sell-off and how it would (and it has)affect the housing and other markets. The Fed is really in a box now since the odds of any tinkering until the new Fed chairman is installed in the new year is low. It will then take time until the new Fed chairman gets their feet wet and therefore further talk about this is unlikely until next spring. Also, after looking as incompetent as they did with this debacle; they’re going to be even more careful the next time to send signals to the market of a tapering.

    • On September 18, 2013 at 1:08 pm,
      Bird Man says:

      I think it is still on the agenda though, Doc. Today is just one day and one announcement. Ben will go out on a high note and markets should be strong right through the fall as a result of today. I tend to think it was a strategy to be honest. How in hell could they have tapered now with all the talk that stocks might pull a 1929 this October. The idea was preposterous really. In other words, they though it through, juiced the idea that expectations should be lower, caught the market off guard as it was slowly priced in and then……voila…..they don’t carry through. The outcome is stocks rise, gold rises, interest rates fall and Ben Bernanke saved America again. Those boys are a crafty lot. I feel bad for all the folks I have been reading who were going short pre-announcement. They just got their arses handed to them on a platter while their bets powered up the market big time. Note the covering taking place now. Started slow and has been building through the day. September is looking to be stellar. Even gold is over the top. Came as a surprise to me that it would be this strong though. Whew! What a day!

      • On September 18, 2013 at 1:17 pm,
        richard says:

        You could be right on. Although, old Ben looked rather sallow today. I get the feeling they’re coming to the realization the only way out of this mess is inflation. The PMs had a nice bump today. In my opinion, what would be good for the resource sector would be a gentle pullback the rest of this month—-I am moving more then ever into the cyclical/ industrial space especially with the dollar looking as vulnerable as it is. You might want to look at the baltic dry index chart. I mentioned about 2 weeks ago how it looked like it wanted to break our. This week it has taken off and taken out it’s 200 week MA for the first time in years.

        • On September 18, 2013 at 1:45 pm,
          Bird Man says:

          I will be VERY interested in hearing what you and Rick have to say tomorrow, Richard, once the dust has settled down a bit. Seems all too much too fast which can sometimes be a neagtive as I think you allude too. The charts have changed abrubtly and I really don’t know that anyone foresaw this much change so quickly (I wonder if anyone will say it is manipulation though!!!).

          • On September 18, 2013 at 2:40 pm,
            Cory says:

            Great comments Bird Man and Doc. The moves today were huge in both PMs and the conventional markets. After listening to Bernanke’s speech and Q&A a taper seems so far off that he will be long out the door. Then we are left with Yellen (potentially) who could easily increase the Fed buying. Digging the hole deeper for the US and the rest of the world.

            Cory

          • On September 18, 2013 at 10:39 pm,
            Bird Man says:

            I guess this was Ben’s Christmas present to the world, Cory. You think maybe the Chinese and Brazilians did enough crying at the G20 to get the Fed to change course? EM flows will now resume. Should be a good bounce for more than a few ETF’s coming as they were down so hard this past month. We can also probably bet the EM countries will also soon be back to crying about how stimulus is distorting their markets! No matter which side the pancake gets flipped it always comes up the same.

    • On September 18, 2013 at 2:00 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Yes they certainly will Doc!

    • On February 1, 2014 at 5:11 pm,
      Natalia says:

      … ந ங க ள த ன ர த ன ஷ ச ன ன த ன அர த த த ப ர ந த க ள ள ம ல as usual க ழ ப ப வ ட ட ர க ள .. அத வ ம அந த program ப ர க க ம ல ய க ண ம ட த த ன ம க denfed ச ய வ த த த ன ஏற க ம ட ய வ ல ல 10:32 PM, September 17, 2008//வ ள ச சம க ட ட வதற க நன ற ! இந த அளவ க க ஆர ய ம அற வ இர ந த ர ந த ல ந ன இந த இட க ய எழ த இர க க ம ட ட ன .ம ண ட ம நன ற !

  14. On September 18, 2013 at 12:56 pm,
    James (the greater) says:

    DOW is actually off its highs while gold continues higher.

    • On September 18, 2013 at 1:06 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Now would be a great time to sell/sell short the Dow and go long the gold sector.

      • On September 18, 2013 at 2:03 pm,
        Big Al says:

        You could very possibly be right here, Matthew!

  15. On September 18, 2013 at 1:00 pm,
    Glen says:

    I do not wish to place much emphasis on Gary’s calls. Gary, you have place this gold smash scenario in front of us which was possible scenario. Go to Gary’s site to see the interview with Tek Dasilva. Gary did not know what was coming but was pointing out a possible scenario. This market is uncertain that is for sure. Thanks Gary for pointing out a possible event. You did, for your benefit say that the this scenario was a hunch. And, it could have happened that is for sure. I doubt at this point that 1000 dollar gold will be forthcoming although we do not know whether this bump up is for real or just a temp event. Let me be scolded. No biggy. I want to see gold go forth and prosper.

  16. On September 18, 2013 at 1:01 pm,
    James (the greater) says:

    The FED put out a trial balloon the last time to see the markets reaction. It was not good. Bernanke immediately sent out his comrades to do damage control. The usual off the cuff statements to try to put the genie back in the bottle. Just on the fact of there two thresholds, unemployment and inflation, not being met, how could they taper?
    Wall St wants it both ways. They want the constant stimulus and at the same time they want people to think they don’t need it. DOESNT MATTER WHAT HE SAYS, MATTERS WHAT HE DOES!

  17. On September 18, 2013 at 1:02 pm,
    Wayne says:

    Axiom: Only time a thief ever seriously thinks about tapering his activity is while sitting in prison. Corollary: Most thieves are liars.

  18. On September 18, 2013 at 1:03 pm,
    benb says:

    I figured there would be taper.
    Personaly my “core” holding is physical, not trading, doesnt matter what happens.
    As far as trading, (which I am not very good at) I missed the bottom on my stocks by a little bit as I had to leave the house for a minute, but I still am up on the day and looks like gold is still going up. Proving to myself yet again there is no need to catch bottoms. altho when I was younger I liked to do that and still think about it on occasion.
    I keep expecting it to tank any minute.

    • On September 18, 2013 at 1:06 pm,
      richard says:

      Benb, that’s pretty funny—–I had to share with my wife and she understood how that applies to my situation as well.

    • On September 18, 2013 at 2:02 pm,
      Big Al says:

      No know about tanking any minute!

  19. On September 18, 2013 at 1:05 pm,
    James (the greater) says:

    And kudos to Peter Schiff, who said all along they cannot taper. He was confident in that position despite an onslaught of contrary opinion attacking him. I salute him because he showed patience and guts! Pittsburgh Phil! Reminds me of myself when I had to pick horses against the herd.

    • On September 18, 2013 at 1:16 pm,
      Bird Man says:

      Oh Lord, James. Peter is a BROKEN RECORD!!! Ha Ha Ha. That guy has been so wrong I hardly know where to begin. If he called this right then woop-dee-doo. I doubt he will be celebrating. The guy led all his followers down the garden path for most of the past 4 years and has not admitted he was wrong on markets all that time far as I know. Their portfolios got totally smoked on his advice. Are you a fan?

    • On September 18, 2013 at 1:26 pm,
      Matthew says:

      From the “Laugh or Cry” department, watch this, James…
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=07fTsF5BiSM

  20. On September 18, 2013 at 1:14 pm,
    Glen says:

    Yesterday, if you go thru the KWN blog you will find Egon Von Greyers in an article saying he did not believe that tapering would happen. I did not pay it even the slightest bit of attention since all the KWN guests including Egon have been wrong so consistently for the last several years. KWN has shot itself in the foot. They have one opinion that they stand by and during this gold consolation this opinion has never changed. Therefore negated what little good information comes forth. KWN is not noteworthy.

    • On September 18, 2013 at 1:19 pm,
      richard says:

      Glen, I read KWN for entertainment and hope. However, I have to admit they come up with some interesting info at times.

      • On September 18, 2013 at 1:30 pm,
        Glen says:

        KWN is totally for entertainment. Good point. Never trade on a KWN opinion or point. You can go back years and see the same types of opinions. They never change. Hopium and opium and LSD dreams without the real drugs is all that channel offers. Egon is all in with the program.

        • On September 18, 2013 at 1:53 pm,
          Matthew says:

          I have addressed this before, but don’t you guys see the folly in lumping a bunch of different guests together? Cashin and Yamada are hardly goldbugs and many of the others are very balanced. Too many critics like to imply that they say things that they really haven’t. Like “gold is going to $2000 by next week!” Big picture, these guys have been right and will continue to be right. They are obviously not giving trading advice. The average investor who is not a trader would do very well by following Turk’s advice to dollar cost average into the metals for the entire secular bull market. I don’t do that, but it would be good for the average, busy guy.
          It borders on embarrassing that honest people with decades of success are continually judged so harshly by hobby investors that don’t have nearly the experience. I have yet to see a billionaire that prides himself on only relying on TA. KWN is no place for technicians or short term flippers of any kind.

        • On September 18, 2013 at 1:57 pm,
          benb says:

          For me, kwn is total entertainment. Except of course what their saying is going to happen. Just a matter of time. gold is going up in currency big time. That is if history is to be believed.

          On the other hand, maybe they are all paid by the mining companies, or the fed even.

          • On September 18, 2013 at 2:53 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Turk, Embry, Williams, etc, paid by the Fed? Now that is one wild conspiracy theory. It really is typical of an empire in decline that so many are more critical of those who tell the truth than of those causing all the problems. Guys like Bill Murphy have been ignored for many years. Then they were ridiculed. Soon they (we) will win.

          • On September 18, 2013 at 3:34 pm,
            Cory says:

            Al and myself are good friends with the GATA guys. It is a shame that they can not get more mainstream media attention.

          • On September 18, 2013 at 3:37 pm,
            benb says:

            I think we “win” too Mathew, if you can call $5000 gold and $10 bread winning.
            But, thats why I own gold, if bread does go to $10 I can still eat.

            Silver of course, that could be an “interesting” story.

          • On September 18, 2013 at 6:31 pm,
            Big Al says:

            And that, benb, is why Kathy and I own precious metals!

          • On September 18, 2013 at 5:05 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Benb, I expect the real price of gold to finally head higher again. The real price really started heading higher in 2008. It bottomed around the end of 2000, and had been climbing steadily, but it wasn’t until 2008 that it really took off. The miners, especially the juniors, can do spectacularly when the real price is high –just like in the 1930s and late ’70s-early’80s.
            The real price high so far was in June, 2012, not Aug.-Sept. 2011.

          • On September 18, 2013 at 10:50 pm,
            Bird Man says:

            Well Al, I might finally be coming around to your previous guests point of view that we will NEVER see gold below 1200 dollars again. Not with the banks all getting long anyway. Can’t remeber who said it though. Was it Roger?

        • On September 18, 2013 at 2:00 pm,
          Bobby says:

          Glen, you are right kwn is for the days when you need a happy face painted on your hand.2

          • On September 18, 2013 at 2:47 pm,
            Cory says:

            You guys are all right on the money. KWN is entertainment and not solid investment advice. It gives us a nice break and if we need an extra kick in the pants to buy gold or silver, that’s the place.

            Cory

          • On September 18, 2013 at 2:54 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Even when they have guests that you and Al have had? (There are MANY!)

          • On September 18, 2013 at 3:46 pm,
            Cory says:

            Yes we have some of the same guests however we try to balance them out with our other guests. KWN and us focus on the PM sector so there will always be some carryover.

            I sure hope everyone looks at us as more of a news source rather than simply entertainment.

          • On September 18, 2013 at 4:04 pm,
            Matthew says:

            I look at guests on a case by case basis. Both KWN and the KE Report has some great guests. I am also entertained by both sites. 😉

          • On September 18, 2013 at 4:58 pm,
            Chico Garcon says:

            Cory, I respectfully think you are a bit off base particularly with the comment “not solid investment advice.” That could be miscontrued that KEReport is solid investment advice which I don’t think you want communicated. Also, I would concur with Matthew’s comments on KWN. Additinally, KWN has questionable headlines but does have balance with the guests they provide.

    • On September 18, 2013 at 1:24 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Egon is a big picture guy. He got his clients into gold below $300 and advised that they allocate 50% of their worth to bullion. Not bad…

      • On September 18, 2013 at 2:26 pm,
        Pibe says:

        Matthew,
        Do you have the link? I woul like to read about that. Thanks.

        • On September 18, 2013 at 2:51 pm,
          Cory says:
          • On September 18, 2013 at 5:16 pm,
            Pibe says:

            Mr. Egon was right on spot on this call but he also says that “there is virtually no physical gold available at these prices”. I remember when there was truly no physical gold available; Kitco did not have any coins at that time and I was surprised but it is NOT the case now. Kitco, Apmex and others seem to have plenty of gold coins available for sale. There is plenty on physical gold available now. At least that seems to be the case. So I am wondering why he is saying that? Any thoughts?

          • On September 18, 2013 at 6:05 pm,
            Matthew says:

            I think Egon is talking about good delivery bars. Since wealthy buyers buy in size, they tend to be more interested in bars. The premiums on retail products like coins, rounds and ingots can really add up when making large purchases.
            There can be real tightness in that market way before it is evident at the retail level. It can also be corrected before it becomes an obvious problem at a lot of retail outlets.
            http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Delivery

          • On September 18, 2013 at 6:23 pm,
            Pibe says:

            Yes maybe you are right. Although Kitco has those bars available as well. I think we are not there (at least not yet). Physical gold seems to be available everywhere (compared to 2008-2009 when you truly did not have any gold and silver coins anywhere!).

          • On September 18, 2013 at 6:24 pm,
            Pibe says:

            Thank you Cory for the Link! Where are my manners?

          • On September 18, 2013 at 6:52 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Pibe, Kitco shows them, but do they have them in stock? And if so, how many? Most dealers will continue to show and even sell products that they don’t have. Many also don’t mention that there will be a delay until you call them.
            Luckily, no shortage is necessary for the price to rise. When silver doubled in the first half of 2006, I remember my dealer telling me that there was plenty of silver around.

      • On September 18, 2013 at 2:49 pm,
        Cory says:

        Egon is very smart and always presents some good facts in his articles. Although slightly one sided, still interesting.

        Cory

        • On September 18, 2013 at 3:13 pm,
          Glen says:

          Egon has no credibility at all. He sells allocated gold at very inflated prices and uses his Swiss accent to add credibility to his stupid calls. Not all Swiss analysts are smart. He would like to be right. He has been a gloom and doomer even before you and I were born. Go back and read his posts. Go back a few years. He is right when the market wants him to be and wrong when we are in consolidation. Ignore him.

  21. On September 18, 2013 at 1:25 pm,
    CFS says:

    What happened on the previous post that killed my computer when I clicked on read this?.
    I was no longer able to post a comment

  22. On September 18, 2013 at 1:41 pm,
    Glen says:

    It appears now that tapering will not be forthcoming until we get the new Fed chief if it comes at all. The question now is what does this mean for gold? I guess we gotta leave the tea leaves up to Mr Savage or Mr Ackerman? Where is Peter Grandich? Peter has gone AWOL. Don’t blame him at all. Will the idiots jump back into stocks now? I believe so. Maybe we will get some of the left overs and gold will come back? I have no idea.

  23. On September 18, 2013 at 1:57 pm,
    Bobby says:

    Hard to believe gold is almost back to where it was just 2 weeks ago? Shorts must have covered

    • On September 18, 2013 at 2:42 pm,
      Bird Man says:

      Covered in what! Ha! Just joking. Poor buggers needed diapers for todays action.

  24. On September 18, 2013 at 2:22 pm,
    Chico Garcon says:

    By the way, in my opinion, Matthew is someone to listen to and follow closely. He gets it, the big picture, that is!

    • On September 18, 2013 at 2:53 pm,
      Cory says:

      I agree that Matthew is a someone to listen to and follow. I have chatted with Matthew and he has some great ideas on the markets and junior and mid-tier stocks.

      Cory

    • On September 18, 2013 at 6:20 pm,
      Big Al says:

      I am with you 100% Chico!

    • On September 18, 2013 at 7:57 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Thanks for the vote of confidence, guys.

  25. On September 18, 2013 at 3:33 pm,
    Silverbug Dave says:

    To Gary Savage: when you said taking off to new highs for gold, do you mean new highs for this rally or new all-time highs?
    .To Doc: when you said new lows for the US dollar do you mean new low below about 80 which has been the floor for a while or a new low in the 40 year declining trend channel since 1971 (or for the bear market since 2001, same thing)?

    • On September 18, 2013 at 5:04 pm,
      richard says:

      Silver, we’re almost oversold technically on the dollar. I would say we attack the 79.5-80 level first and then look at the technicals to see if it takes awhile before we move lower.

  26. On September 18, 2013 at 3:39 pm,
    Mike says:

    where is Trader Rog? Was always funny…….

  27. On September 18, 2013 at 4:14 pm,
    Dennis M. O'Neil says:

    On days like this rather than tallying nominal gains….. one might consider whether the best performing metal in their estate was their ammo.

  28. On September 18, 2013 at 4:35 pm,
    Dan, calgary says:

    I would like to thank and conratulate Matthew for his brave bullish calls in front of we sourpusses. Like hearing from Doc, Bird, James, CFS, Al, Cory, Rick and many others. Nothing goes straight up but this could be the start of some real trading in the PMs instead of chicken- $4!t selling. Bought WS at .42 sold at .56 and bought back in this morning at .43 (;-) Holding NOX and a few others for later.

    Dan

    • On September 18, 2013 at 5:18 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Thank you Dan. I am not surprised, but still relieved that it went this way. We would have been in for a much longer haul if it even retested the lows. As it stands now, I think the rest of the year and 2014 will be very good (and like you said, not straight up), but the best moves probably won’t start until the second half of 2015. Of course “best” is relative, so I think we have plenty to be excited about straight ahead.

      • On September 19, 2013 at 9:01 am,
        Pibe says:

        Matthew,

        You are somehow in agreement with Mr. Armstrong about gold star shinning after the end of 2015. But he states that the US stock market will benefit from international capital inflows before that. Let’s see how good is “best”!

        Take care!

    • On September 18, 2013 at 10:57 pm,
      Bird Man says:

      I might be coming around, Dan. Lets not forget we have been through two years of declines that have been pretty damn rewarding for those of us playing to declines. I don’t get stuck on philosophy though and am more than prepared to change direction if that is the new trend. You know, Gary could well be right that THIS was the turning point for metals. We have seen the bottom and it is not coming bakc for a good long time.

      • On September 18, 2013 at 11:07 pm,
        Dan, calgary says:

        I didn’t word that correctly. I meant the comment about you guys to be completely separate from the sourpuss one and I do enjoy reading and listening as much as I can. I respect all the contributers mentioned above.

        Dan

        • On September 19, 2013 at 12:19 am,
          Bird Man says:

          Thanks Dan. I think yesterday restored some our faith that there is a future for metals again. This has been a long deep trench but I am sensing it really might be over based on how the market reacted. If so it won’t matter if we begin buying today or tomorrow because all of it will look like a bargain basement discount in the next two years. We are risk-on again, equities on the rise and most particularly should see some life in the miners if only the damned oil price would relax and come back to earth. I still think it is energy costs that are one of the biggest impediments to miner profitability (other than the gold price itself of course). With a combination of rationalizations on the qulity of ores, cost cutting, elimination of non-performing assets, falling oil and rising gold the miners could turn around pretty quickly. So far it is just energy that seems to be the big barrier to the next big move. Cheers!

          • On September 19, 2013 at 6:35 am,
            Dan, calgary says:

            I agree about oil and the influence on the miners. Let us hope they don’t blow it this time around.

            Alberta bumper sticker from the eighties; “Please Lord let there be another oil boom and I promise not to piss it away this time.”

            Dan

          • On September 19, 2013 at 9:05 am,
            Bird Man says:

            I remember it well. I think I spent almost two years out there between Calgary, Edmonton, Banff and Canmore. Almost think of it as home except Saskatchewan is where I love the most.

          • On September 19, 2013 at 10:54 am,
            Big Al says:

            I personally think that Saskatoon is one interesting city, Bird!

  29. On September 18, 2013 at 4:47 pm,
    James (the greater) says:

    No bird man I am not a fan. I am only pointing out that he stayed true to his conviction and publicly declared it. I have voiced my opinion in time past how he got the credit crises wrong, being he thought the $ would collapse and non $ denominated assets would do well and that his housing call was a no brainer. But he did go against the conventional wisdom here and it should be mentioned.

  30. On September 18, 2013 at 5:04 pm,
    Mark says:

    Poor Gary. Always guessing wrong at just the wrong moment, then following up with strategy after the fact: the usual.

    • On September 18, 2013 at 6:35 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Not sure that many on this site would agree with you.

      • On September 19, 2013 at 3:53 am,
        Mark says:

        What site are you reading?

  31. On September 18, 2013 at 5:11 pm,
    Dan, calgary says:

    I wonder if Goldman Sucks is still recomending to thier clients to foward sell thier production? Why would a gold company use these crooks anyway.

    Last winter I lost almost my whole investment account in options (stupid me) and when closing my account the guy told me to switch my Can$ to US$ and hold. I Told him to take a hike. How do these brokers make money? By your service fees.

    Dan

  32. On September 18, 2013 at 7:02 pm,
    Paul L says:

    Peter Schiff’s comments:
    http://www.safehaven.com/article/31157/the-taper-that-wasnt
    With the big move gold is only around the 50 rsi level and go a lot higher to around 1480 to 1500 before it gets overbought.

  33. On September 18, 2013 at 7:04 pm,
    Paul L says:

    Gartman gave the buy signal a few days ago on cnbc when he said he was wrong and is now bearish on gold. The best signal man.

  34. On September 18, 2013 at 11:38 pm,
    Sean C says:

    Man, what a day for the PM’s!!!

    Haha – listening to Gary is priceless! “Like I said, gold was due for a cycle bottom, and I was pretty sure the FOMC would be the trigger for it…”

    Except for the week prior when the FOMC was supposed to be the catalyst to take us down to 1000.00 or the maybe he nailed it a few weeks out, when gold was supposed to be embarking on a journey to new highs. Or maybe we should all just go start a newsletter and change our opinions the morning of a major event that we’ve been flip-flopping on for weeks leading up to, especially when we’ve got most of our subscribers bailed out of gold and we’ve got a 50/50 shot of being right.

    Of course – nothing like Big Al and his dorky co-host to blow a volcano of smoke up Gary’s a$s and completely ignore his blatantly incorrect calls over the past few months. That should bring in a few extra subs for savage – hope you’re getting a nice cut Al!

    • On September 18, 2013 at 11:45 pm,
      Sean C says:

      Gary Sept 12

      “At this point I doubt we will get a cycle bottom until the FOMC meeting next Wednesday and maybe not until OEX next Friday. The bounce out of the daily cycle low I expect will fail to reclaim that $1350 resistance zone and gold will head back down to test $1179. At that point I think we can safely assume we will see another one of these overnight attacks to break that support also which will probably trigger a waterfall collapse back down to the prior C-wave top around $1030ish.”

  35. On September 18, 2013 at 11:50 pm,
    Sean C says:

    Gary Sept 7

    I’m starting to get quite nervous that this intermediate cycle topped on week nine and the bear raid is about to continue.

    The next week or two are going to be dangerous in my opinion. If the bears can get some downside traction, traders need to get out of the way, get back to cash, and prepare to jump on board the bull at $1000 which I believe is probably the ultimate goal of this manipulation event that has been going on all year.

  36. On September 18, 2013 at 11:52 pm,
    Sean C says:

    Annnd just before that – Gary was Mr. Positive

    Now that gold has broken its daily cycle trend line I think we can assume that the daily cycle decline has probably begun. My best guess is that we will see gold drop into next week’s employment report and test the support zone and intermediate trend line between $1340-$1350.

    We knew this was coming, as gold will enter the timing band for a daily cycle low on Monday, so no one needs to freak out.

    • On September 18, 2013 at 11:53 pm,
      Sean C says:

      Aug 31

  37. On September 18, 2013 at 11:57 pm,
    Sean C says:

    Annnd a little before that (Aug 12 – Gary was sure the manipulation he denied for years was pretty much done. Of course, in weeks to come he changes his mind

    “In fact I think we are probably going to experience some kind of manipulation this week as we move towards options expiration. But from now on I think these will just be brief to tangle cycle counts, or run short term stops, and allow big money insiders slightly better entries. The major manipulation is complete. It has accomplished it’s goal.”

    • On September 19, 2013 at 4:58 am,
      Bobby says:

      Well Sean, that pretty well paints the picture. Good to see someone holding people accountable for what they say. Most blogs lack in that area.

  38. On September 19, 2013 at 6:29 am,
    Tom says:

    Its ok Doc….you just got caught watching the mainstream media…try staying away from them, they will influence your judgment.

  39. On September 19, 2013 at 8:36 am,
    Pibe says:

    Sean,

    I am 100% agreed with you. It also makes me mad to see how people worship a scammer (i.e. Gary Savage) but I am really trying to move on. Yes he is a scammer but let people figure it out by themselves. I feel your frustration man I am also an ex-subscriber and I know what kind of person Gary Savage is but try to focus your energy on something more positive. It is highly likely that Mr. Savage will get it wrong again (as always) and make up a lot of excuses (as always) but let him burn by himself -people are not stupid-. Just focus your mind of positive things.

    Getting back to business, what just happened in the PM market seems to be pretty interesting; is it going to last or is it just a spike? Mr. Armstrong (somebody who I respect) says that gold will start shining after the end of 2015 but not until then. Let’s see what happens.

    Take care

    • On September 19, 2013 at 9:18 am,
      Matthew says:

      Pibe, you might be surprised to know that even though I am a raging bull, I agree with that view of Armstrong’s. However, I expect gold to still do well in the meantime. For instance, if the Dow continues higher as many very good people think it will (among them, Armstrong, Puplava, Jeffrey Saut, Robin Griffiths), I am confident that gold will do at least as well, and probably a little better. With the leverage now fully restored to the miners (thanks to that nasty, two-year corrective period), I expect the miners to easily outperform conventional stocks.
      From sometime in 2015 to at least 2017, I expect the real price of gold to gain substantially. So stocks and commodities will be falling sharply, at least in gold terms.
      Bottom line, the precious metals sector will offer plenty of opportunities on the way to 2015. Contrarians should be comforted by the sentiment and valuations in this sector right now. For starters, we should see gains while the Dow consolidates/corrects into at least the first quarter.

  40. On September 19, 2013 at 4:45 pm,
    Tim Curry says:

    As a former subscriber to SMT I would not recomend subscribing to it Gary is not that accurate. See for yourself at http://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/

    • On September 20, 2013 at 10:47 am,
      Matthew says:

      Thanks for the link Tim, that was really interesting. I am glad to see the Aden sisters place well. I have always liked their work, but have not yet subscribed.