KER Commentary – Tue 24 Sep, 2013

Are Gary and Big Al in essence saying the same thing?

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Featuring:
Gary SavageAl Korelin

Comments:
  1. On September 24, 2013 at 7:45 am,
    CFS says:

    Good commentsry at http://www.mcalvany.com today.
    Gold is going down because Crimex gold options expire tomorrow.

    • On September 24, 2013 at 9:10 am,
      benb says:

      I forget, isnt that a “smash” day?

      • On September 24, 2013 at 9:18 am,
        Big Al says:

        Please elaborate benb!

        • On September 24, 2013 at 9:58 am,
          benb says:

          Seems the manipulaters use any excuse to hammer the goldprice.

          • On September 24, 2013 at 12:25 pm,
            Big Al says:

            You should go back and listen to what Olivier had to say about the manipulators on the Weekend Show.

          • On September 24, 2013 at 1:05 pm,
            benb says:

            I never listned to him before. Saying maybe $1100 gold. afew more are saying that now.
            I think I was saying “a slow crash” “gold shouldnt go much below $1000” some time ago.
            People laffed of course even had people re posting my posts saying “maybe lower, $400 maybe” being silly with that one but gold will go as low as there is gold to sell and the U.S. dollar needs protection, and with all the money printing it needs lots of protection. There is also the goal of moving it to China to .remember, there is some kind of a deal made with that too.
            The only reason it wont go much below $1000 imo, is the Chinese government told their people to buy at about $1000 and they wont allow themselves to be wrong to the Chinese people.
            Heck, maybe a benifit of low gold is to eliminate a good percentage of the “crooks” in the industry, who knows?

          • On September 24, 2013 at 2:36 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Eliminate the crooks? You know, that is a good point. But, just a few bucks won’t even come close to doing it!

          • On September 24, 2013 at 1:37 pm,
            benb says:

            Chinese Housewives vs. Goldman Sachs: No Contest
            Goldman Sachs is once again predicting that gold will fall, setting a new near-term target of $1,050.

            From Ed Steer at Casey Research today.

    • On September 26, 2013 at 3:05 pm,
      Silverbug Dave says:

      I just went to take a lok at the McAlvany commentary. Usually a great listen but I am not sure about his beard right now!
      I see that gold has been held right below the 45 degree downtrend line on the stockcharts ppoint and figure chart. Fascinating. It makes what looks like a bull flag on the daily chart look like a bear flag!
      I agree with Gary that the downmove in gold along with the downmove in the US dollar is worrying to gold bulls. Two reasons:
      1. It means that gold is going down in most currencies;
      2. On other occasions when there was a gold bull market, there were some severe corrections in gold but during the repair phases, I recall times when gold and the US dollar both rallied. When the dollar turned down, gold took off. Now it looks like the opposite!

  2. On September 24, 2013 at 8:09 am,
    xlurkr says:

    Big US banks (ie JPM) have gone from net short to net long on COMEX:
    http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/5044/summarizing-latest-bpr
    I think this supports the idea ‘they’ wanted gold lower – ie to profit from shorts – but makes a future downward manipulation less likely (even if the dollar strengthens).

    • On September 24, 2013 at 8:18 am,
      Dan, calgary says:

      They have to pay for thier fines somehow. On BNN Francis H. said that criminal charges are being considered for this (JPM) lot of manipulators. That’s what happens to a 150 year old company; it rots from within and gets government support at the same time. The conspiracy theory is being proven more each time one of these behemoths is dragged into court and successfully charged.

      Dan

      • On September 24, 2013 at 8:29 am,
        Big Al says:

        Great point Calgary Dan!

    • On September 24, 2013 at 8:29 am,
      Big Al says:

      Good point, xlurkr

      • On September 24, 2013 at 8:46 am,
        xlurkr says:

        Maybe they’re ‘managing’ the gold price ahead of the budget/debt ceiling debates? FED won’t want a new high if possible – bad signals re economy & $ & could suck money out of stocks.

        Now JPM’s net long they can safely sell into any rally without accumulating a huge net short…

  3. On September 24, 2013 at 8:10 am,
    CFS says:

    Some rare earths (e.g. MCP) are surprisingly strong at the moment!
    Almost getting overbought.

  4. On September 24, 2013 at 8:14 am,
    James (the greater) says:

    The average person does not look at gold as an indicator for the health of the economy. They look at housing. Most people own a home or are hoping to buy a home, or are selling a home. After that they look at jobs. People want to feel safe. The average person couldn’t quote the price of gold. The so called sophisticated investors who look at the price of gold, if they truly are sophisticated are not going to get duped anyway by the manipulated gold price. So in a nutshell it is not a canary in a coal mine. That said, how else can one explain the price action if it is not manipulated? Markets are usually efficient but at times they arev not. I’ve said repeatedly a lot of chaos and confusion out there. I also explained very thoroughly the latest state of affairs in my last “September Song VII” essay, which I do not think enough people had an opportunity to read. Perhaps I will repost it again, because since I posted it, it is even more factual…

    • On September 24, 2013 at 8:32 am,
      Big Al says:

      I have to respectfully disagree.

      I think that the price of gold is a large and very important indicator.

      Imagine, if you would, just what would happen if gold strongly reversed right now and the mainstream media started to report that.

      I know many might say that the mainstream would not but remember their mandate is to sell newspapers to sell advertisements. Profits are important so I maintain that this would be reported.

      • On September 24, 2013 at 11:38 am,
        Bird Man says:

        Agree Al. The job of newspapers is to sell NEWS and that means that it is stories about thtings that already happened. Past tense. In other words, newspapers are historical in their broad perspective. That is what they do best. Collect the facts and report on events after they occurred.

        Investors on the other hand are forward looking.

        Every single person who comes to this site will relate well to that idea. We look at estimates of future mine production, current supply and demand, changes in Fed or Government policies and major trends that are not know to Joe Sixpack (like China and India and Central bank purchases). Then we go further and make attempts to predict the behaviour of the public based on a huge variety of inputs, changes in vault allocations, political and geopolitical forces, strength of companies and so much more.

        Is it any wonder the media takes such a keen interest in sites like this as they offer a window into the future and provide the meat for developing stories that normally would not be on the publics radar. I am not suggesting we are like Nostradamus or anything but on the whole the conversation we have daily is trying to divine what will happen tomorrow, next year and the next decade.

        We are not newsmen. We are fortune tellers!

        • On September 24, 2013 at 12:36 pm,
          Big Al says:

          All of us!

          And, hopefully pretty accurate, Bird!

    • On September 24, 2013 at 8:36 am,
      CFS says:

      At first thought I agreed with you, James, and then I thought a bit. What government cares about what the average person thinks? (as long as they vote to re-elect.) The price of Gold is adjusted to influence those people/countries that can have influence on the dollar.
      I am not sure politicians are all that knowledgeable. In fact the older I get, the less is my opinion of most politicians.

    • On September 24, 2013 at 8:58 am,
      benb says:

      “The average person does not look at gold as an indicator for the health of the economy”
      I agree with that 100%, I am the only person I know that knows the price of gold, sometimes somebody will know the price of oil but nothing else.
      Houseing prices people have an idea about..

      • On September 24, 2013 at 9:19 am,
        Big Al says:

        I really think you are wrong. But then again, disagreement at times is what all of this interesting as we learn from each-other.

        • On September 24, 2013 at 9:57 am,
          benb says:

          Al, maybe the circle of people you associate with are “resource” people?
          I know what I call working people,red necks.
          They dont give a darn about the gold price, know nothing of the federal reserve think syria is sad but know nothing other than what the government tells them on msm. Most think guys with boxcutters knocked down towers. I consider those people “average”, rare are those that actually follow world events, most are more concerned with “american Idol” etc.

          Wasnt there a video posted on this site just recently of a fellow trying to sell a gold once for $5,$10,$20?
          I have seen many of these videos, trying to buy coffee etc. I think thats an average person. They know nothing other than their own interests. Pretty normal I think.

  5. On September 24, 2013 at 8:17 am,
    Glen says:

    Al, there is no reason fundamentally that gold should be smashed down to 1000. If we visit 1000 though, this should prove to you in your mind at least that manipulation exists in the gold and silver market. If this happens it will be a victory for the bullion banks as they will make billions in the next 6 months. I think manipulation will stay with us pretty much indefinitely or until the system totally breaks down.

    • On September 24, 2013 at 8:33 am,
      Big Al says:

      Fundamentally you are, of course, absolutely correct.

      I am getting on the manipulation band wagon.

      I simply feel that the “they” is a larger segment than most would believe.

      • On September 24, 2013 at 9:33 am,
        Glen says:

        They is pretty simple. It is the Dept of the Treasury, The bullion banks and the Hedge funds. Its hard to know which entity is in there on any given day.

  6. On September 24, 2013 at 8:18 am,
    CFS says:

    http://www.latimes.com/world/worldnow/la-fg-wn-un-brazil-rousseff-nsa-spying-20130924,0,4956585.story

    UN opens meeting…..In opening remarks Brazil slams US. Yep, how the US is winning friends!

    • On September 24, 2013 at 8:35 am,
      Big Al says:

      From what I have read, the U.S. deserved that comment!

      • On September 24, 2013 at 8:43 am,
        CFS says:
        • On September 24, 2013 at 8:51 am,
          CFS says:

          I’m amazed at the speed with which this story was carried in major newspapers around the world. Washington Post, Globe and Mail out of Toronto, Guardian in London. etc. Large column inches.

          • On September 24, 2013 at 8:54 am,
            Big Al says:

            I am not amazed at all!

        • On September 24, 2013 at 8:55 am,
          Big Al says:

          As I said below, I am not at all surprised.

          We are not particularly well liked internationally right now.

  7. On September 24, 2013 at 8:33 am,
    James (the greater) says:

    Jim Rogers said it is likely gold could go to $1000 to $900 I’m the next couple of years

    • On September 24, 2013 at 8:34 am,
      Big Al says:

      Sure James (the greater) in these insane times of course anything is possible!

  8. On September 24, 2013 at 8:57 am,
    James (the greater) says:

    We are talking about the media…here is my take on the media, and the power they have
    This is a repost of “September Song VII” so if you’ve already read it you can ignore it. Don’t get on me for reposting it, but the record needs to be set straight…

    Posted Friday September 20th…

    September Song VII

    This essay is chock full of good stuff, and I even have another horse racing analogy because I know some of you appreciate it…I urge you to read it because you might learn something.
    I don’t just throw these in for fun or relive my past successes, but rather because they have direct bearing and application in today’s markets.

    So forgive me if I get long in the tooth, but writing helps me to collect my thoughts, de clutter my mind and retrain my focus. It’s also good for the soul. I think you would all agree that has never been more important in these rapid fire, uncertain and erratic times.

    Hearken unto my words…

    “A tale of two horses”

    The Kentucky Derby of 2003 brought together two horses, Empire Maker and Funny Cide.

    Empire Maker was a regal horse, exuding class, with top notch breeding and big money backers from Saudi Arabia. He was born to be a champion.

    Funny Cide was a NY bred gelding, whose future wasn’t as promising, from nondescript parents and a local horsemen who never had a big horse.

    Empire Maker was the odds on favorite to win the Derby.

    Before the Derby the two horses met in New York on April 12th, for their last prep race, the Wood Memorial.

    THAT DAY, Empire Maker was 3/5 odds on favorite, and Funny Cide was sent off at 5-1. Funny Cide did take some money. What I call smart money.

    Empire Maker won that race, beating Funny Cide by a hard fought neck.

    Funny Cide had some trouble in the race and represented himself very well to be 2nd.

    After the race the usual Monday morning quarterbacking began and the post race analysis.

    The media, the racing reporters, were tripping all over themselves saying how easily Empire Maker had won the race. They stated so confidently Empire Maker was just toying with him, he could have won by a wider margin, he was saving his best race for Kentucky.

    I looked at the race again and said to my father “Do you see what I see?”

    I must have watched the race replay 10 times.

    Empire Maker was life and death to hold off Funny Cide.

    He had won by a very hard fought neck, and not for racing luck would have probably lost. In my mind the horses were very hard to separate.

    But that’s not the way the media saw it.

    For three weeks leading up to the Kentucky Derby the media had convinced everyone Empire Maker was the superior horse. They explained how he had won so easily, he was by far and away the best horse, and that he was a shoe in to win the Derby.

    You heard this over and over for three weeks.

    They literally had the power and ability TO CONVINCE PEOPLE NOT TO BELIEVE THEIR OWN EYES.

    The day of the Kentucky Derby, as expected Empire Maker went off the favorite, and Funny Cide was forgotten, sent off at 13-1

    THAT DAY belonged to Funny Cide.

    Funny Cide confirmed his last race was no fluke, winning the Kentucky Derby easily at a long shots price of $26.

    The smart money who bet him in his last race knew something. They were right. They were JUST EARLY.

    Those who objectively looked at the race and were not dissuaded by the media were paid off handsomely. Those who fell for the medias bias failed. Plain and simple.

    Needless to say I cashed a monster ticket that day.

    Does all this sound familiar?

    For weeks now we have been hearing from the media the FED IS GOING TO TAPER.

    Like a broken record they played it over and over. How could you not fall for it?

    I’ve said repeatedly Ben Bernanke never explicitly said he would taper.
    It was data dependent. AND THE DATA DOESN’T SUPPORT IT!

    The media swayed everyone again.

    Just like the racing reporters who convinced so many not to believe their own eyes, the stock reporters convinced so many not to believe their own ears.

    NOW THEY ARE AT IT AGAIN…

    Let’s take a brief look at just some of the media blitz that came out post FOMC meeting…

    Right on queue the FED’s Bullard came out and said the decision not to taper was a borderline call. A borderline call? Forgive Mr. Bullard but the voting was 11 to 1. How is this a borderline call. More damage control. More lies. More spin.

    He then went on to say the FED could taper in October. What is miraculously going to change between now and October. More damage control. More lies. More spin.

    The FED wants you to believe there is thoughtful debate going on and they are in control.
    They want you to believe they erred on the side of caution and they still have an exit strategy. Nothing could be further from the truth. They only know how to do one thing: print.

    Then the ingenuous Mr. Jim Rogers gets paraded out again to talk about gold.
    Listen to the interview. One contradiction after the other. The headline says it all: “Jim Rogers forecasts a drop to $900”

    Mr. Rogers said a drop to $900 is possible. Excuse me but anything is possible.
    He then says if it goes to $900 he hopes he is smart enough to buy it.
    Does this make sense to you? Does this seem sincere?
    We are supposed to believe he is smart enough to make a call of gold going to $900 but not smart enough to buy it if it does? He then says there are no safe havens. WOW.

    He then says in 5 to 10 years out gold could be well over $1900 .
    But that is not the headline they choose to run with.

    So what does Mr. Rogers know that we don’t know?

    Then we have the “Oracle of Omaha” Mr. Buffet.
    Mr. Buffet says the stock market is fairly valued.
    If that is true then we still have a lot of room to run in the stock market.

    Mr. Pisani, that guileless CNBC cheerleader, after hearing that gave the thumbs up to buy stocks. After all if Mr. Buffet, a value investor says the market is still fair valued, there must still be a lot of bargains out there. Go out and uncover them. BUY BUY BUY!

    Then the last spin from Bloomberg News…

    Physical demand has really slowed” after prices climbed, Bernard Sin, head of currency and metal trading at bullion refiner MKS (Switzerland) SA in Geneva, said today by phone. “There will be quantitative-easing tapering at some point.”

    Excuse me but am I the only one who thinks this is an imbecilic statement?

    So that is the criteria for gold? That is what is going to drive the gold price?

    The assumption that at some undetermined time in the future, some undetermined amount will be tapered. No timeframe. No amount.

    But when it comes this is gold negative.

    Who writes this stuff?

    If this isn’t the biggest piece of pure fantasy I don’t know what is.

    Trillions of $ can be created out of thin air between now and “some point”, but when they finally taper this is gold negative.

    This is the information the media is dispensing everyday.

    It is nothing but lies, distortions, spin, and propaganda.

    This is what you are up against. Everyday.
    This is the battle.

    The sad truth is the media is winning the battle.
    This is the power the media has over everyone of us.

    Whether it is telling you not to believe your owns eyes, and convincing you that one horse is far superior to another, or telling you not to believe your own intelligence and common sense and assuring you everything is wonderful.

    The media is a monster and it must be fed.
    Like the alien plant in “Little shop of horrors” it needs to be fed and it will eventually eat its master!

    Too much information is not good.
    You need to separate yourself, filter out all the noise and stick to your own convictions!

    This has always been my anthem. When I went to the racetrack, before I walked in the gate, my mind was made up. I was confident in my conclusion. The only thing that would alter my decision was price. Value or lack of it.

    I knew I would be surrounded with an onslaught of “experts”, amateurs, loonies who would be more than happy to share their opinion.

    You must run from it!

    The CNBC shills and cheerleaders are going to convince you now that the FED made a mistake, they should have tapered and we don’t need.

    Thank you very much though, we’ll take the money and run up the stock market but we don’t need your money. LIES.

    After the “shocker” of the no taper decision gold jumped up $60.
    Many gold bulls popped the cork on the champagne bottles.
    The reason being more printing of US$ should make gold more valuable.
    In a normal world where the laws of economics still apply this would make sense.
    BUT THIS IS NOT A NORMAL WORLD!

    One blogger even said the road to $1500 is now a “hop, skip and a jump”

    It is more like a push, pull and a fall.

    Again in a normal world he would probably be right.

    But I already learned my lesson and have curbed my enthusiasm.

    On September 13th, 2012 the Federal Reserve announced “QE3”, an open ended bond buying program, otherwise known as QE to infinity.

    On the news gold popped about $40 that day. The initial knee jerk reaction reasoning more money printing to infinity should be good for gold. The results have borne out the opposite.
    Since then gold has done nothing except go down.

    As I write this blog gold and silver are getting absolutely crushed.

    It looks like a repeat of history.
    This does not surprise me.
    History doesn’t always repeat but it often plays the same tune.

    And like my father taught me, look for the larceny, not the logic.

    Now you have the same old “experts” scratching their heads, back peddling and doing flip flops.

    First they like gold and dislike the conventional markets, now they flipped flopped.

    Or they had their day in the sun and are now screaming manipulation. Their in, their out. They have no idea where they are.

    So where are we now? Really.

    The debt limit fight is right around the corner. The defunding of Obama Care.
    The German elections are coming up.

    I personally don’t know if any of these things will have an effect on gold

    It looks like Boehner might have finally grown a back bone, and now that he knows he has cover, he might take the fight on Obama Care defunding.

    This could be gold negative.

    For stocks bad news is good news. For gold any news is bad news. For gold good news is really really bad news.

    Then again the debt limit debate might blow up.
    This could go either way for gold.
    Scared investors might run to the dollar again, for right or wrong.

    And whatever happened to Syria?

    What did they fall off the map?

    What I am saying is there are too many unknowns, too many land mines.
    You could be shanghaied, hijacked, kidnapped or blown up at any time!

    Sometimes you just need to get off the field. Especially if the field isn’t level.

    You can dig your heels in and say gold must follow some recipe for rising prices.
    But it doesn’t work that way.

    Speculating never works that way.

    You can hold on to it for insurance, whatever the heck that means, and delude yourself.
    But remember what Mr. Rogers, that bastion of truth and honesty said, “there are no safe havens”

    Proceed at your own risk is all I can say.

    You can follow the CNBC siren call to buy, buy buy!

    Stocks might continue to go to heaven.

    Bernanke might have just telegraphed again “I have your back”

    With wind in it sails stocks could be ready to soar.

    Bernanke cleared the runway, pedal to the medal!

    BUYER BEWARE!

    Or you could buy the new iPhone, lock yourself in your room with the new Grand Theft Auto and watch the fireworks.

    I don’t have a clue.

    Now I want to come full circle and finish where I started.

    Prior to his Kentucky Derby win Funny Cide always played second fiddle.
    He was disrespected, mocked, scoffed at.

    He was a NY Bred Gelding. He wasn’t a Kentucky blue blood.

    No self respecting horseman would want anything to do with him.

    But his trainer Barclay Tagg, a true horseman, believed in him.

    Tagg stuck to his guns and brought the horse to Kentucky to face his nemesis one more time.

    Dismissed at 13 to 1 by the deluded public, who were brainwashed by all the so called racing “experts”, they didn’t want to touch the horse. Like his name he was just a laugh to the public. “A NY BRED GELDING IN THE KENTUCKY DERBY, HOW FUNNY IS THAT?”

    The public, the amateurs, the novices had a good laugh at Barclay Taggs and Funny Cides expense.

    It wasn’t a laughing matter though when Funny Cide turned the tables and won the race paying $26, except for those WHO BELIEVED THEIR OWN EYES AND DIDNT GET
    PERSUADED BY THE MEDIA!

    I trusted my eyes and cashed a huge ticket.

    See I knew Funny Cide might or might not have been the better horse, but I knew, ON THAT DAY, he was the better bet.

    So like Funny Cide who played second fiddle to Empire Maker, I believe gold is playing second fiddle to stocks. Eventually though gold can turn the tables. When I have no idea.

    Funny Cide went on to win the 2nd race in the Triple Crown, the Preakness Stakes.

    But while Funny Cide was winning that race, Empire Maker’s trainer, Bobby Frankel, decided to GIVE HIS HORSE A REST. HE HAD A GAME PLAN AND A BIGGER GOAL.

    Now here is the kicker. The truth of the matter was Empire Maker was the better horse.

    The two rivals met again in N.Y. for the Belmont Stakes, the longest, hardest and most demanding of all the races.

    Wouldn’t you know it the crazy public was now high on Funny Cide.

    As usual they missed the wedding and showed up at the funeral.

    After winning two big races and using most of his energy Funny Cide came up empty THAT DAY.

    That day, Empire Maker, well rested, exerted his authority and won easily. After all he was a Kentucky blue blood with the breeding. His breeding was superior.

    When the REAL RUNNING began Empire Maker proved his class and drew off.

    He was just waiting for HIS DAY to rise to the top.

    After all the cream always rises to the top.

    And so it might be that way with gold.
    Right now gold is playing second fiddle to stocks, but there is COMING A DAY when the better asset might turn the tables.

    So like Empire Maker, on the RIGHT DAY, when the REAL RUNNING starts gold just might exert its superiority and BREEDING and draw off..

    • On September 24, 2013 at 9:40 am,
      Big Al says:

      “Too much information is not good.
      You need to separate yourself, filter out all the noise and stick to your own convictions!”

      Great commentary The Greater!

      I hope that everyone has read or will read it.

  9. On September 24, 2013 at 9:15 am,
    James (the greater) says:

    As a follow up they, the FED, continue to jawbone the markets. You have several FED heads sending mixed signals, deliberately, to confuse. I’ve said this for months. Dudley is now the latest to come out and say it is data dependent. Now all the talk is will they taper in OCTOBER. HOW ABSURD IS THIS! We are now being told gold is watching closely for a October taper. When does it end?
    Whether it is governments, and presidential press secretaries, the mainstream media, or the financial media they have the power now to frame the debate, street the argue net, and decide the conclusion. What was that old advertisement a few years ago? “An educated consumer is our best customer” NOT IN THIS SOCIETY!

    • On September 24, 2013 at 9:17 am,
      Big Al says:

      Definitely not in this society, The Greater!

  10. On September 24, 2013 at 9:42 am,
    James (the greater) says:

    We live in an Information Age, the quantity of information is exploding, but what is the source? Case in point – Carl Icahn just tweeted Bernanke will be sadly missed?
    What is the point of that tweet? Why did he say what he said? Why now?
    First of all Ben Bernanke has not formally announced his departure. Why don’t you give the man the respect to at least announce his intentions before you broadcast his leaving? I think this is a disgrace. Now as far as the content – what does Carl Icahn want? More printing, that’s how he judges success. I’m sure he will not be disappointed when Janet Yellen takes the helm. Everything for effect. Nothing is off the cuff.
    Too much information, most of it is wrong, and the right info is only dispensed to a handful of insiders. Case in point – I was watching the screen closely like most were right before they announced the no taper decision. Gold popped $6 about 2 minutes before the news.
    Obviously someone was able to walk out the back door of the meeting and call his bookie before everyone else got the news…

    • On September 24, 2013 at 9:50 am,
      Big Al says:

      It would appear that you are correct in that somebody very probably did walk the door at the opportune time!

  11. On September 24, 2013 at 9:43 am,
    Matthew says:

    I have to disagree that the dollar has been falling lately. The reality is that the euro has been rising. We know this because the real dollar, the one we actually use to buy stuff, has been increasing against gold, oil, and commodities in general, for the last few weeks.
    Forget about the dollar as measured by the dollar index, look at the real dollar. Contrary to the opinion of guys like Martin Armstrong, the empirical evidence does show that gold ultimately reflects the loss (or gain) in the purchasing power of the dollar. Yes, gold can lead or lag, but over time, it does a very good accounting of the policies that affect the dollar. All currencies should be assessed against gold, not against some basket of other, sinking-at-different-rates, currencies. The USD Index exists to confuse and mislead. Commodities are at multi-decade lows when measured in gold, but are near all-time highs when measured in dollars.

    • On September 24, 2013 at 9:48 am,
      Big Al says:

      Your comment:”The USD Index exists to confuse and mislead. Commodities are at multi-decade lows when measured in gold, but are near all-time highs when measured in dollars.” is pretty interesting!

  12. On September 24, 2013 at 10:03 am,
    John Chew says:

    First, is “They” manipulating gold. Where were they during gold’s rise from $35 to $1900 over the past 70 years?

    What a waste of time. Focus on market fundamentals and the structure of the market. Are commercials long/short?

    Also, the FED can NEVER taper with a massive global debt bubble worsening. More intervention weakens the economy.

    The thought of manipulation is just an excuse for ignorance.

    Gary would be better off flipping coins.

    • On September 24, 2013 at 10:44 am,
      Matthew says:

      I agree that the fundamentals are ultimately what matter, and that they will never taper, but your first question/argument doesn’t hold up: “Where were they during gold’s rise from $35 to $1900 over the past 70 years?”
      Do you really think this is a logical argument? Jim Puplava has been saying the same thing for a long time and I still cringe each time he repeats it. I wouldn’t park money with such an illogical guy. I guess his contentment with the negative real yields of his laddered bond portfolios shouldn’t be surprising. Anyway, in light of all the unprecedented and arguably insane policies of the Fed and the governments of the West in the last decade plus, how do you know that gold shouldn’t be $5,000, $10,000, or $20,000? Without the blatantly uneconomic dumping of huge amounts of gold during the lowest volume hours, gold could easily be much higher. Moreover, when gold was $35 per ounce, every dollar in circulation was backed by gold. Today, gold would have to be about $15,000/ounce in order to achieve the same backing (and assuming that the U.S. still has all the gold it claims to have). The point is, manipulation can SLOW the inevitable rise (and I don’t mind, since I believe that such interventions will only make the bull market stronger).
      So, contrary to your assertion that manipulation is only used as an excuse by those who can see it, I actually lump it in with the other positives for gold.

      • On September 24, 2013 at 12:02 pm,
        John Chew says:

        Just to clarify, the Fed and government constantly intervene into the market of voluntary exchange–note the money and credit created out of thin air through fiat currency. The growing global credit bubble means bad money drives out good money so you want to own gold (the only money that isn’t being printed) since the supply of gold/silver is not growing as fast as the supply of fiat currency. The U.S. is a fascist country. There is heavy intervention, agreed.

        But show me SPECIFIC, FACTUAL evidence that the market is being manipulated in gold and if the market is being manipulated lower, then we all benefit!

        So a bullion bank sells 5,000 tons at 3 AM in Hong Kong to drop the price $20, how will they cover unless others sell to them at a lower price? Why do they do this? If I offered you ten cents for your shoes, would you sell them to me? What you are saying is that Manipulators are SUBSIDIZING buyers by billions of dollars. It is like bankers are suppressing oil prices at $10 a barrel but the price really should be $100.
        How could anyone afford to do that?

        If I sell you a New Lexus at $200 to depress the price, can’t you just resell it at $40,000? You can’t stop the law of supply and demand –never in the history of man has it been repealed.

        The only way gold will fully back the currency is if the market decides to implement a new system. In other words, you would need to remove money completely from the hands of govt. Not likely anytime soon.

        • On September 24, 2013 at 12:19 pm,
          Matthew says:

          If you’ve ever looked into the claims of GATA, then there should be no doubt about Manipulation.
          I have always maintained that the markets ultimately win, and that attempts to suppress the price really amounts to a gift. You’re preaching to the choir on those points.
          Regarding your final comment, when gold went over $850 in 1980, this was sufficient to back the currency 130%, albeit only briefly. So money does not need to be removed from the hands of government for the market to correct such an imbalance. Foreign-held U.S. debt was also accounted for when gold went beyond about $470 in 1980. Gold would have to be $20,000 today in order to cover foreign-held debt (assuming the gold is still there).

        • On September 24, 2013 at 12:38 pm,
          Big Al says:

          Been a lot of talk for quite some time about a new asset back international reserve currency.

      • On September 24, 2013 at 12:32 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Great comment, Matthew!

    • On September 24, 2013 at 12:30 pm,
      Big Al says:

      You are saying exactly what Bob Moriarty’s philosophy is.

      By the way, I agree. I think that a certain amount of manipulation exists, but I can do nothing about it. I am here to have fun and, hopefully, realize some profits along with all of you.

  13. On September 24, 2013 at 10:23 am,
    Fred says:

    There is not nearly enough average American people to make any difference in the price of gold now or in the future. The gold price will take off to the upside when the LBMA and COMEX (aka crimex) have been just about emptied of physical gold and lots of confirmed media exposure. China, Russia, India and other countries and Central Banks are the drivers of physical offtake and gold price upside. This is like watching paint dry. C’mon boyz, speed this puppy up.

  14. On September 24, 2013 at 11:51 am,
    Glen says:

    We have issues in India right now. They have raised tarrif’s on gold imports. They just raised the duty on jewelry to 15%. The gold market is dead in India. It went from being a 100 ton market to now being a 4 ton per month market due to these tariff’s. Dubai has suffered a 25% decline in exports due to this issue. You are right, the US market is insignificant but the Indian and Pakistani market is not.

    • On September 24, 2013 at 12:03 pm,
      Matthew says:

      It’s interesting that Stewart Thomson just commented: “On that note, the just-announced clarification of the 80-20 gold import rule, by the central bank of India, is a critical victory for the bulls, in my professional opinion.”
      http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_092413.html
      Stewart Thomson is a retired Merrill Lynch broker.

  15. On September 24, 2013 at 5:05 pm,
    Mr Burns says:

    Hey I’m still waiting for that 10,000$/oz gold Gary called. Will I die before it reaches it?

    • On September 24, 2013 at 5:37 pm,
      Big Al says:

      What was his time frame Mr. Burns?

  16. On September 24, 2013 at 9:09 pm,
    MrBurns says:

    About the half life of uranium.