Gary Savage – Fri 27 Sep, 2013

Friday morning with Gary Savage

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Featuring:
Al KorelinCory FleckGary Savage

Comments:
  1. On September 27, 2013 at 10:06 am,
    Jon says:

    Gary, can you explain what you mean by 1/2 cycle low? Is this a monthly cycle?

  2. On September 27, 2013 at 10:11 am,
    James (the greater) says:

    yes Gary please explain. Last Wednesday pre FOMC meeting you said there is a scenario if gold pops $40 to $50 the manipulators will be broken. Did you buy that day and take your own advise? Then just two days later you said the manipulators were not broken. Now you say you are on the sidelines? When do you get in and when do you get out? In the shadows?
    Now you say you are on the sidelines until either gold goes down to $1000 or $1417. It very convenient to cover all bets…

    • On September 27, 2013 at 3:52 pm,
      Silverbug Dave says:

      I think he said it needs to go up $50 and then have follow through. What happened? No follow through, in fact, almost entire gains erased, almost, not quite. Anyway, this Friday there has been a nice little pop up so it does not look like a disaster as of yet.

  3. On September 27, 2013 at 12:00 pm,
    cameronlego says:

    Like I said before Gary will be bullish when gold goes up above 1417. So you buy at 1418. But what happens a few days after that if it drops down to 1320???. Do you sell at that level?. But if you sell at 1320 what happens if it goes back up past 1417. Do you buy it back? If you do buy above 1417 than what happens if it drops back down to 1320 do you sell it again and keep repeating to you loose all your money.
    You short term traders are a lot smarter than me. I just like to buy each month (dollar cost average) and hold.

    • On September 27, 2013 at 12:24 pm,
      Bird Man says:

      That’s kind of it. You play the direction if you feel confident it will go in your favour and sell for the best profit you can make whether that be an hour, day or week later. Gold is surprisingly predictable if you follow it closely. Just don’t marry it and you will feel a whole lot better for the buying and selling…… As a bonus, you won’t be amongst the crowd with the crying towels who invested (tens) thousands and are locked into physical ownership with exhorbitant premiums over spot. The one nice thing about short term trading is you know what your profit/loss is almost immediately and so you don’t get hung out to dry when big long lasting declines come about (like the last two years). Gold is the near perfect trading vehicle to make money off the emotionalism of others.

      • On September 27, 2013 at 12:44 pm,
        cameronlego says:

        But if you can consistently make money then why not just do that for a living. I just have this gut feeling that most people who trade gold, stocks etc. on a short term basis will lose money over the long run. Otherwise they would quit their days jobs and make a living short term trading.
        Those that sell advice on how to short term trade probably are making more money selling that advice than from their own short term trading strategy.

        • On September 27, 2013 at 12:55 pm,
          bb says:

          Cameron, PT Barnam said somthing to that effect. lol

        • On September 27, 2013 at 2:26 pm,
          Bird Man says:

          Right on that point. The majority of people day trading lose money. Of course, ALL of the people who bought and held metals between the recent highs and the top at 1900 lost money too. At least on paper. Add in commissions, fees or premiums plus shipping (depending on the purchase) and those losses add up pretty fast. Many are just holding for an opportunity to escape at break even. My own strategy is to do absolutely nothing unless I have a high degree of certainty what is coming next. It is not buy and hold and it is not day trading either.

          • On September 28, 2013 at 12:02 pm,
            NYC says:

            so right! thank you for crystallizing my own view

        • On September 27, 2013 at 3:53 pm,
          Silverbug Dave says:

          Turd Ferguson says forget being a trader unless you are with Andrew Maguire. He might be right on!

          • On September 27, 2013 at 4:15 pm,
            bb says:

            Absolutly silverbug, Maguire understands the signals givin to the insiders to the manipulation. @ kwn King posts that people with Maguire have made over 100k per contract with Maguire.

      • On September 28, 2013 at 12:01 pm,
        NYC says:

        Bird,,,,very good points….way agree

    • On September 27, 2013 at 1:18 pm,
      Big Al says:

      I am with you cameronlego!

      • On September 27, 2013 at 6:20 pm,
        CFS says:

        I’m confused.

        Are you referring to the avatar of David Cameron…..does not make sense.

        Or are you referring to the Pope’s assistant: Camerlengo which does not make much sense either.

  4. On September 27, 2013 at 12:06 pm,
    robert says:

    when is this torture ever gonna end? 2 years of up down down down… and it never ends…

    • On September 27, 2013 at 1:18 pm,
      Big Al says:

      My opinion,

      Torture if you are short term minded and peace of mind if you are long term minded.

      • On September 27, 2013 at 1:22 pm,
        Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

        Precisely so Al

  5. On September 27, 2013 at 12:42 pm,
    TenYear says:

    Once rates rise, the stock market will begin to unwind as institutions pull out their Fed money. In theory, the economy is supposed to be good enough at this point that the banks can in turn lend this out to small businesses, large businesses and individuals for expansion. Thus, we would start the inflation play at that point as the demand for goods and services would expand even further. Precious metals are very dangerous here because I think it is obvious that the deflationary pressure is too much for the monetary expansion theory to hold. Precious metals will very likely trend downward with the stock market over the next couple of years at the very least.

    • On September 27, 2013 at 1:22 pm,
      Big Al says:

      I wish I could predict the future Ten Year!

    • On September 27, 2013 at 1:48 pm,
      Matthew says:

      When inflation is, in large part, due to rising demand for goods and services (like in the 1980s and ’90s) gold doesn’t do very well. This makes sense because capital can be put to more productive use when the economy is expanding. There is, therefore, high demand for capital for investment purposes in such an environment. This keeps real interest rates positive. Gold does well when the economy is stagnant or contracting and real interest rates are negative. This makes sense because such an environment makes it difficult to make, or even keep, money, without taking on extra risks. Fiat currencies do not satisfy the need for cash (safety) because they contain substantial counterparty risks. Banknotes (Federal Reserve Notes) are debt instruments. A “bill,” as in a dollar bill, is the same thing as a “note” –a debt/credit instrument. In a credit contraction, debt is hardly the safe or wise place to be for most investors.
      The dollar can do well initially when deflationary forces cause 2008-style turmoil, but that is due to the fact that it is dollars that everyone ends up with when they sell an asset. Relative to gold, the dollar still finished 2008 down 5.58%. Gold outperformed dollars, commodities, stocks, and bonds coming out of 2008 due to deflationary forces (which were masked by currency debasement). Collapsing debt has been propped-up with the creation of more debt (dollars).

  6. On September 27, 2013 at 12:57 pm,
    James (the greater) says:

    99.9% of all traders lose money. I know it and they know it. Buy the physical, at the end of the day at least you have something. Regarding those who sell their opinion I’ve made it abundantly clear on this site how I feel about that. I put my money where my mouth was everyday. If you can’t trade successfully as your only source of income then you shouldn’t be selling your opinion, and there would be no reason to. This is a no brainer.

    • On September 27, 2013 at 1:23 pm,
      Big Al says:

      And that, my friend, is the value of this site!

    • On September 27, 2013 at 2:51 pm,
      Bird Man says:

      Actually James, a hundred percent of traders lose money sometimes. Truth is nobody seems to have a good idea of how many people make it as a successful trader except we know most don’t. Usually it is lack of discipline, short attention spans, gambling type addictions, too much emotion and a lack of understanding of how markets work. It takes years just to learn the ins and outs and you can still screw up. Obiously it is rewarding enough for the 5 or 6% who focus and don’t execute any trade they are not confident about. Some guys have made millions. Others got wiped out to zero and bankrupted. I have known both. The better traders are usually quieter than the guys who get squashed.

      • On September 27, 2013 at 3:46 pm,
        Big Al says:

        I too have known both!

  7. On September 27, 2013 at 1:30 pm,
    SILVERMAN says:

    I LOVE THIS SITE!!!
    EVERYBODY IS IN THE SAME BOAT, AND MISERY LOVES COMPANY.
    WE ARE REALLY NOT ON THE TITANIC FELLA’S.
    SOME DAY WE WILL BE THE ONLY ONES WITH ANY NET WORTH!

  8. On September 28, 2013 at 1:14 am,
    Gabriel says:

    I got a few observations which I hope someone can enlighten me..I understand Gary talks about the huge volume of selling on the weekly which is the recent high which is cause for concern..

    But if I look at the daily chart and the volume traded around these areas for the last few months.. it seems on an increasing trend which shouldn’t this signify an area of accumulation?

    The weekly chart shows 2(doji) indecision bar perhaps would it be showing a change of trend coming soon??

    The usd index has ripped apart its 200dma..broken down from a diamond..broken down from a long term uptrend line..shouldn’t this be a huge factor in depressing the usd?

    Im not an expert in cycles..in fact not in anything..but it came to my observation cycles can delay in a huge way it seems..im not sure how long it could be..is there a chance the upcoming usd cycle move up be delayed and crucified?

    I hope someone can shed some light into these questions I have..cheers