Al's Insights – Wed 9 Oct, 2013

Big Al, Cory and Gary start the day

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Featuring:
Al KorelinCory FleckGary Savage

Comments:
  1. On October 9, 2013 at 7:58 am,
    franky says:

    100 % manipulation ! Waves tuks and caicos ! I go walk with the dog !

    • On October 9, 2013 at 8:47 am,
      Big Al says:

      What kind of dog?

      • On October 9, 2013 at 9:26 am,
        franky says:

        a small little golden dog – Al !

        • On October 9, 2013 at 10:00 am,
          Big Al says:

          We have a small pooch also. Actually she is not a pooch, she is our fourth daughter!

    • On October 9, 2013 at 9:43 am,
      franky says:
    • On October 9, 2013 at 2:41 pm,
      cfs says:

      You almost wrote a sensible sentence Franky!

      I like Turks and Caicos. I will actually be in Cockburn Town (nearby anyway) for a few days in November. Can’t say I’ve seen many dogs there though! Just sun, cooling breezes and warm sea.

      • On October 10, 2013 at 2:09 am,
        Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

        He’s getting there cfs

  2. On October 9, 2013 at 8:48 am,
    Glen says:

    Gary, if you are right about gold going down to 1030 that is the call of a lifetime. I am assuming that you are so confident about this call that you are short gold? You mentioned that this is going to be a manipulation play, pushing gold down. I am not convinced that this has anything to do with the Fed. What does the Fed gain from this? Nothing. Gold trading sideways at 1300 is not a bad place for gold to be, if the goal is just to maintain appearances. Miners will suffer seriously if gold visits 1000. That is not in the best interests of anyone. You could be right though. I just don’t agree with the call. Its very gutsy. I am on the Doc’s team. Gold trades sideways for the foreseeable future or until a black swan event changes the flavor of the gold and pm markets. Good luck.

    • On October 9, 2013 at 9:17 am,
      bb says:

      Glen.
      Larry Edelson made the same call april 15/13.
      There have been others, my point is Gary is not the only person with this viewpoint.
      Nadler for instance was saying almost everyday that gold was going to top and down it will go and he was fired for it.
      Anyway, Gary has company is all Im sayin.

      • On October 9, 2013 at 9:42 am,
        Matthew says:

        I don’t know how long you’ve been paying attention to Nadler, but he deserves no praise at all. He has been absolutely and outrageously bearish for many years. Since I do not think he is stupid, he must be a shill.
        Edelson, as I’ve pointed out before, turned bearish on gold WAAAY too early. At least Edelson is no shill (as far as I know).

        • On October 9, 2013 at 10:01 am,
          Big Al says:

          No, I don’t think that Larry is a shill of any kind!

          • On October 9, 2013 at 3:38 pm,
            Bentnail says:

            AL:

            It appears as though my gut feeling has been right all along – the “BUY GOLD” cry from those on “alternative” talk radio hosts is a massive SET UP – I mean Alex “shill” Jones types, not you, for I am convinced that you are genuine. Here is a great little clip that should help to shed some light on the issue:

            http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ccr9CmnX6mQ

          • On October 9, 2013 at 4:16 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Thanks Bentnail.

            No point whatsoever in not being honest.

  3. On October 9, 2013 at 8:55 am,
    TH says:

    Gary is a genius, very seldom is he off his game, if ever! Everyone knows the fundamentals, yawn, listen to a technical guru and learn, he’s a pro’s – pro!

    • On October 9, 2013 at 9:24 am,
      Irwin says:

      Funny Mrs Savage

      -how are you this morning? 🙂

    • On October 9, 2013 at 9:27 am,
      bb says:

      WoW, thats a change, from horrible critisisms to praises.
      Gary, you must be doing somthing right.

      What I like is Gary accepts manipulation and corruption and attempts to work with it and make a profit as opposed to denying it exists.
      Calls by people seem to work out about 50% depending if you call up or down and put a timeframe to it.
      Myself, I say gold up over the next hundred years.

      Paul Craig Roberts has a great interview on U.S.A. watchdog, I found it on 321 gold today.
      He makes a great comment, things are unpredictable because we have never had a more incompetant bunch of stupid people running things, how can we predict what they will do?
      He may of mentioned that owning gold is a good idea.

    • On October 9, 2013 at 9:57 am,
      Big Al says:

      Seem to be getting more fans, TH!

      • On October 9, 2013 at 2:26 pm,
        Pibe says:

        Hehe!! Love sarcasm!! I like you TH!!!

  4. On October 9, 2013 at 9:00 am,
    Glen says:

    If I was a paper trader I most certainly would be following Gary’s advice and be on the sidelines right now. There is no reason to be invested in paper gold right now until we see where in the hell gold wants to go. I believe thats part of the reason gold is in a funk. Too damn risky right now to bother with it.

    • On October 9, 2013 at 9:10 am,
      Matthew says:

      I have to wonder why a trader wouldn’t buy now, somewhere under $1300, and place a sell stop in the $1272 -$1267 (122.50-123.50 GLD) area. Why miss the $100+ move to $1420?

      • On October 9, 2013 at 9:59 am,
        Big Al says:

        That is a very good point!

    • On October 9, 2013 at 9:57 am,
      Big Al says:

      I do agree with you, Glen

  5. On October 9, 2013 at 9:02 am,
    James (the greater) says:

    GS is a tidal race track tout. He plays both ends. He has stated he is in cash. If he were really confident in $1000 gold he would short it. Instead he is playing the path of least resistance play. No one needs to be a guru to make a call for lower gold prices. That is what it has been doing now for over two years. It’s a bunt. It takes a guru to make a call for higher gold prices here. $1000 is basically 50% retrace meant. This is very common and reasonable to happen. I say declare you are going to short it if you truly believe this is going to happen. Short it now!

    • On October 9, 2013 at 9:58 am,
      Big Al says:

      I am pretty confident that Gary is more cautious than that. I am not really sure that he is looking to be the guru of all times. (Which takes a certain amount of luck!)

    • On October 9, 2013 at 2:21 pm,
      Gary says:

      I don’t recommend selling short for the average person. Markets go down differently than they go up. It’s much harder to make money on the short side then the long.

      Much easier to just sit in cash and wait to see if they can get it down to my target. Then you will get a very low risk trade and one that is much easier to hold onto than trying to sell short.

  6. On October 9, 2013 at 9:50 am,
    James (the greater) says:

    Nader was nothing more than an anti gold shill. Throughout the entire bull market in gold he kept saying it was going to crash. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. GS plays both end against the middle. Typical scheme of the tout.

    • On October 9, 2013 at 10:02 am,
      Big Al says:

      Not really, in my opinion.

      Typical scheme of a careful investor covering all bets!

  7. On October 9, 2013 at 11:13 am,
    James (the greater) says:

    IMHO a true investor makes his money by investing. Not selling opinions. This will always be my position.

    • On October 9, 2013 at 11:32 am,
      Big Al says:

      I am with you 100% The Greater

  8. On October 9, 2013 at 11:41 am,
    Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

    Very good point James. Of the thousands of so-called experts out there few if any seem to put their dosh where their mouth is. Wouldn’t it be great to find some ‘guru’ who said this is WHAT I’m doing, and I’m confident that you should follow my example. But no they all talk in generalities and spin out the programme, while reference to some future date when it will all come good is like forecasting the next heatwave….can’t say when exactly, but it will come. lol.

    • On October 9, 2013 at 4:33 pm,
      Arnie D says:

      I have subscribed to various newsletters over the years and attended quite a few conferences too, have met Doug Casey, Eric Sprott, Rick Rule, and Big Al too at least 5 times, and I’m pretty sure they all practise what they preach. Nobody gets to be super rich just writing newsletters. All investors with big exposure to natural resource stocks are in a slump right now, but all of the aforementioned got to be so rich by sticking their necks out and putting their own money on the line, just more intelligently than most. I will say this for a fact,though, most retail stock brokers I know make far more money from commissions than from their own astute investing. Talk about shills, most are owned by the banks, so of course they’re biased.

      • On October 9, 2013 at 4:44 pm,
        Arnie D says:

        How’s this for practising what you preach? The Chinese gov’t has for years now been encouraging citizens to buy gold and silver, and guess what, the Chinese gov’t itself is probably now the biggest buyer of gold in the world, especially now when prices are low. They’re not traders, they’re hoarders, and once they’ve loaded up, my hunch is gold will go much higher, but probably not until then. They’re not stupid and they are long-term thinkers, more so than anybody. There’s a saying, “follow the money”, do what they do. The Chinese have lots of cash and they’re buying gold. Something to be learned here?

        • On October 9, 2013 at 7:38 pm,
          bb says:

          I have noticed the same things Arnie.
          I agree about China and follow the money too.
          Its gold, its the how new people need to understand.
          5%-20% of investment funds is pretty easy, especialy when its purchased monthly.

        • On October 9, 2013 at 8:37 pm,
          Big Al says:

          You are absolutely correct, my friend. FOLLOW THE MONEY!

      • On October 9, 2013 at 8:33 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Hi Arnie D,

        Yes, I do put my money where my mouth is. And yes, we are not making a whole lot at this time.

        But you know what?’ There is more to life than money. I have a great family; a great trustworthy business partner; and the best family in the world. What more is there?

        • On October 9, 2013 at 10:29 pm,
          Arnie D says:

          You have a good heart, Al, so I’m not surprised you’ve created a great network of friends and a wonderful family. By the way, did you know the word “courage” comes from the Latin word “cor”, meaning from the heart. We in the PM space need courage of our convictions right now to survive and ultimately thrive. Gold is like good land that holds its value. There have been periods when farmland was dirt cheap – pardon the pun – but not anymore, and gold will rise again too. There’s no counterparty risk.

  9. On October 9, 2013 at 12:49 pm,
    Irwin says:

    The blind leading the blind:

    Yalman Onaran has been with Bloomberg News since 1998, serving as Turkey bureau chief among many roles. He was covering Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns when they became the first to fall in the financial crisis. As a senior writer, he now pens feature articles about banking issues worldwide, comparing European banks to their U.S. counterparts.

    Art Bell asked, “Yalman, let me ask you a personal question; if you became convinced that there was going to be a major, full default in the United States, what would you do with your money?”

    Non-answer with laughter, humming, and hawing:
    > I don’t know if I can do anything …
    > people will go buy German bonds …
    > perhaps Japanese bonds … is that safe?
    > invest in Philippines? …

    It amazes me how people like this get to be called “experts”. Peter Principle in action, I suppose.

    The half hour segment starts at 05:40

    http://youtu.be/qLyO1vbOl00?t=5m40s

    • On October 9, 2013 at 4:11 pm,
      Big Al says:

      “I don’t know if I can do anything”. That is just great!

  10. On October 9, 2013 at 12:58 pm,
    bb says:

    Andrew,Im sure there are others but I know Rogers is like that, issue is he is a billionaire and he veiws the world from that perspective.
    He agrees with Al tho, diversification, he was once asked in an interview I watched if he owned copper, his look was pricless, he answered “of course I own copper, I own everything, Im a billionaire”
    I found it hilarious.
    Anyway, a guy that may be more suitable to what your looking for is Mikey Fulp, he has been the best I have met,found since 2008 anyway, last I checked he was correct 16 out of 19 picks up to that date.
    All, his stuff is free, he doesnt hold anything back (as others do)
    He really is the best, that I know of, I dont know all obviously.
    You might want to understand his criteria and goals before following his advice.

    I was doing my DD on companies, thought I was pretty thorough(sp) Then I saw Mr Fulps DD and threw mine out the window, the guy is incredible.
    Actually, anyone on this site would be doing themselves a favour by checking him out.

    Now someone will say “I know that guy,he cost me millions”
    Oh well, tough break, check him out.

    • On October 9, 2013 at 4:13 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Mickey is a competent guy, but last time I checked he only provided information on companies that were paying him.

      • On October 9, 2013 at 7:15 pm,
        bb says:

        I think Mr. Fulps record speaks for itself.
        Competant might be an understatment.
        He tells everyone he is for hire.
        If someone wants a mine checked out before investing Mickey is your man.
        Otherwise, check the net for Mercenary Geologist. Its all free and easily equal to anything that can be purchased.
        Im not saying the services that are purchased dont have value, just Mickey is easily as benificial.
        No, I am not paid for this advertisment. lol

  11. On October 9, 2013 at 2:22 pm,
    Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

    Thanks bb – will check him out! A

  12. On October 9, 2013 at 7:08 pm,
    yardfarmer says:

    for most of us uninitiated gold is insurance, not an investment. as such I will leave all these pretty much unproven and useless speculations to the likes of these day traders whose livelihood depends on the periodic, manipulated (especially in these days of hopelessly broken markets mostly unamenable to technical analysis) flat and completely irrelevant fluctuations in the rigged casino of futures and options as well as the suggestibility of their gullible subscribers. what an insipid, vapid, uninspiring, and fruitless activity you are engaged in. you can’t even conceive of the hopelessly hollow world you have concocted from your own abysmally limited perspectives. I would speculate that at this moment Gary Savage’s present predictions have about an 80% chance of total failure much like a considerable amount of his previous output.

    • On October 9, 2013 at 7:21 pm,
      bb says:

      Alot of wisedom in good clean earth farmer. No argument from me.