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[…] here Written by Gold […]
manias always end below where they started. Finding where this one started is key to knowing when to get back into gold. Looking at a long term chart holds the key. Knowing when to get in is as important as knowing when to get out. I expected this last rally to get sold off and I sold the miners on Aug 15 after holding them for only nine days and a 25% profit.
Remember that even the 20 year bear market in gold from 1980-1999 to its 252 low in 1999 did not take gold below the first peak of the 1970s bull market at around $200. Though I originally thought this 2000-2011 gold bull market would be split by the 2008 crash, I am not so sure now and this bull market might not be like the 1970s one. Maybe the current bear market phase is the cyclical bear in the middle of a larger bull market between the first and second halves but I am now not sure that we are actually not in a secular bear market for gold.
In that case we need to look at where gold became overbought between 2000 and 2011. I think it is slam dunk obvious that gold was WAY overbought at $1920 in 2011. OK, now I go to my boring repetitive going on about the high at $1430 in Nov/Dec 2010 and the rollling over on the chart. I was expecting a big correction there but we didn’t get one. Gold was already very overbought then , in my opinion.
Now go back to the 2008 gold action. Gold had a peak at $1025-1030 inMarch 2008 and corrected into the $800s over the summer and crashed to $680 on the Lehman Brothers collapse in September/October.
Gold then got into the high 900s if I recalll correctly in June 2009 and took a pullback before making its successful assault around September. When gold re-took $1000, there was already a record short interest and a record openi interest, i.e. more than the first visit to $1000 in 2008. That was an orange flag. Gold then continued on to $1224 in 2009 and then on to $1430 in 2010 and $1920 in 2011.
Perhaps you might say gold was always overbought at $1000 on overly zealous leveraged speculation. So one might conclude that a bear market would take gold under $1000.
The 2008 low at $680 would look to be a safe bottom for a bear market. This would fit with the 1970s experience mentioned above. The first speculation in the 2000s bull market happened when gold jumped from $485 to $730 in early 2006 and took a correction then consolidated at $600-650 in 2007. So the $680-700 level would look to be a nice base for gold if the bear marke plays out.
(When I say record short interest in late 2009 at $1000, I meant record Commercial short interest).
Hey Mr. Big Al, any chance of getting franky on the show sometime? He would be a colorful guest.
Wow this is unbelievable,does anyone here “the Last Post Bugle Call “,yet?
I hate being wrong. I thought we would see sideways trading. I can see now that gold will trade lower for the foreseeable future. Gary could very well be right on this one. Gary hasn’t wavered on this call I have to say its gutsy. I hope you are not right sir.
Only true if you have cash
Gary…If we see $1030 gold,where do you see the price of silver.And BTW your commentary is very much appreciated.
Glen is right. Assuming the current gold-silver ratio of 60, 1030 gold = 17 silver. However, on big declines, silver tends to fall more than gold. So we could see a retest of the June high of 69 for the ratio. This would put silver at just under $15.
No idea, but when gold reaches $1030 you need to buy silver at whatever price it happens to be at as silver will outperform gold by 2:1.
Gary,Will do and if you are a canadian, enjoy the long weekend.
We could easily see 17 dollar silver if gold visits 1000 in my view. Devastating.
Since you believe the gold and silver market is manipulated, which I agree with, could it be China or other Asian countries? This could drive down the price thus allowing them to further facilitate the flow of physical gold from west to east at lower prices.
Doug, I dont think i’ve ever heard that “spin” before.Great question.I don’t have an answer.Hopefully one of the smarter guys on the blog will respond?
So.. whoever, whatever, is dumping these huge amounts of gold to break down the price, have they been holding since 1985, they didn’t sell when it was 1500$, 1800$, they figure sell when it is LESS profit for them?
Doesn’t make sense…
I find it interesting how people, who didn’t initially believe that manipulation was possible (while they were winning) start crying “manipulation!” after they’ve lost money.
by “people” you mean Gary? Gary is not just “people”!!! Besides Gary never loses money because although he fails to win in the stock markets, he makes that up getting subscription money from people. Sorry….from subscribers and loyal followers.
Yeah, by “people” I mean Gary. It’s amazing how he continues to have subscribers/followers. His blog is all entertainment, and nothing helpful toward making actual money over the long haul…but I guess people just want to be entertained while they gamble their hard-earned money away (and fantasize about one day getting rich from trading) I would rather buy and hold plain-old SPY over the long-haul, or plain told 10 year treasuy notes than take any trades based on Gary’s opinions.
NOTE: I’m not buying and holding SPY or T-Bonds…just saying those would work better over the long haul than trading based on Gary’s opinions or his actual trades.
I prefer to use the term TOTAL MARKET CONTROL, Jay
Feeling deceived and taken advantage of?
Market does not make sense anymore?
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You guys need to give it a break. Gary has been
nearly perfect on all his calls since this summer.
Anyone can see that who has been listening to his interviews.
Now you’re just starting to look like idiots.
Heck his call to exit on Sept 3 saved everyone a 20% draw down in miners. That call alone is worth 5 yearly subscriptions.
Never mind about all the bad calls that lost more than 20%. If you’re really thinking that somoene’s lucky dart-toss of a guess saved everyone 20%, then you will never understand risk management. In other words, if you are counting on some “guru” to make guesses at what the market will do, and then hop in and out based on those guesses, that’s a very dangerous way of managing money. Frankly I’d rather just toss a coin or throw darts! At least the coin is only wrong half the time! 😉
To repeat, I listen to everyone and then make up my own mind.
He got caught by the manipulation like virtually every gold bug but he got out in Jan so I really have no idea what you are talking about. I can vouch for that call as I did exit at that time. Not once until June did he recommend anything other than a max 10% Leap position.
Like I said you need to give it a break. It’s obvious you have a personal vendetta against the guy and its obvious you are just making up veal as you go along.
Thanks for the common sense, Roger.
Actually, Jay is absolutely right; according to reliable data from an unbiased website (i.e. from Guru’s rating), you will have more chances of saving money flipping a coin. (i.e. 50% chances). Gary’s rating is 41%. That is LESS accurate than flipping a coin.
As I said, go ahead and get a subscription to follow his trades! Good luck with that!
Pibe. Yeah, he’s worse than the coin. It’s funny how the site posted an email that Gary sent them an email claiming he is better than 99% of all the hedge funds in the world (LOL! what total delusional nonsense!)
Gary – “My real record based on real trading results is much better than 99% of all the hedge funds in the world. …real trading results based on premium subscriber content are much higher than 46%”
You know one thing that I have learned is that harboring a grudge is like letting someone live rent free in your brain.
Please think about that, Jay.
Trust me man, it is simply not worth it.
Please tell me about yourself Pibe.
The problem with Gary is that he tries to TRADE this market. Being most of the time wrong (i.e 59%) that is a sure recipe for failure.
You want to know about myself? I am a LONG TERM investor (except for a very very small portion of my portfolio). That means I am investing taking a look into fundamentals and not trading. You want to invest in gold, silver and platinum?…well just buy coins and store them for 7+ years or buy reputable BIG mining companies (not juniors) and do the same. You will probably make money that way, but DO NOT take the advice from a guy who does not know what he is doing because you will lose money for sure. Precious metals are SAVINGS and their value will appreciate in the long run but we are not there yet. This will happen probably in the next 7 to 8 years but we are not there yet. Just stop trying to outsmart the market or (worse yet) following Gary’s trades.
Gary Savage. Still selling the snake oil. I would have thought after he fire-bombed most of his retards back in 2012 that he wouldn’t be able to afford an internet connection anymore.
Oh well, it’s fools like his current subs that fund frauds like Gary. Certainly a smaller bunch of fools, I’ll give them that much.
His most recent incarnation of a suicide bomber isn’t going to end any better. Let me forewarn everyone of that right now so when i laugh in your face AGAIN (The Flea) you won’t be able to say i didn’t warn you, AGAIN.
This fool (Gary Savage) is now trying his hand at turning a dollar into a trilion :-), via options.
I guess it isn’t bad enough he ruined a lot of people in his last attempt, but hey, after a paper reset (reader, don’t you wish you could do that for real? lol) he’s back up and running wish a fresh roll of cyber-bucks, lol.
Al I don’t even know you, but you’re a damn fool and charlatan for allowing this fraud (Gary Savage) to even be mentioned in anything but the worst light possible, on anything with your name attached to it.
It isn’t about Pibe or Jay or anyone else. It’s about a known fraudster with a known horrible record that you continually allow to be highlighted on your forum.
Gary is a proven fraud by his own records. I’m sure you know it too, so it casts the same shadow on you too, as it should.
Lay with pigs and dogs and what do you get?
Enjoy Al, you’ve earned it!
It’s funny that even this “fraud” is right more often than the much loved Jim Puplava according to Pibe’s link to guru ratings. Gary is even ranked above the legendary Richard Russell and Bob Moriarty’s hero, Bob Hoye. Just an observation. I have no interest in either side of this issue.
Haha. JP seems so sure of a runaway market and his guests are repeating his mantra. I have great respect for the show JP puts on but I am now thinking he is assuming the bottom of the gold price is also a thousand bucks. Is there a consensus that gold is going to a thousand bucks now? How aften is the consensus correct?
I agree. Several bankster banks now have targets below $1100. The now active bearish head and shoulders pattern will probably be invalidated by all this bearishness. The big money chart-painters are good at giving false breakdowns/breakouts. My bunch of tiny juniors didn’t care about gold’s weakness last week –especially GSV.
Puplava’s pollyanna attitude has become bit annoying.
The comments directed at me (laying with pigs and dogs) are getting pretty vile.
I have asked for some proof regarding the allegations.
Let’s see how quick they come this way.
I simply ask you to substantiate your commentary. If you do I will certainly look into it.
Others say just the opposite and he did come highly recommended.
Again, I ask you to simply substantiate your allegations in a straight forward manner. You have my word that I will spend time checking it our.
Let’s see once and for all just who the pigs and dogs are.
The ball is in your court.
Mat, it’s about time you learn some math my friend. Your win % is half the equation only. Let’s ignore the FACTS that the fraud (Gary Savage) is much less than 50%, and let’s ignore the facts that “Guru’s everywhere” somehow get posted complete nonsense and lies (oddly always positive!) on ‘guru-ranking’ sites across the internet so in fact these sites are 100% useless…
yes, let’s forget all of that for a second.
I know guys that can honestly boast 75% win rates and are STILL negative expectancy traders and have the record to prove it!
You fools expose yourself and lack of education with every post. Only a RANK AMATEUR would talk in terms of win rates alone. It’s meaningless.
Gary’s biggest assets are OTHER PEOPLE’S STUPIDITY. I’m sure he knows it too.
It will always be this way for this fraud or any other, because anyone with half a clue would see him and the rest of them, for exactly what they are. It’s right there in front of anyone willing to look at Gary’s true record beyond the last 2 weeks.
There is no other explanation why this fraud (Gary Savage) would have even ONE paying subscriber, including his mama.
Why did he scrub that account in 2012 again? lol. Oh yeah, he knew he was NEVER getting out of that hole. The guy has been AT BEST dead money for years now,
SPY, T-Bill have and will be a better risk adjusted bet that this fool (Gary Savage) ever will be.
I need to learn some math? I simply looked at the list in the link. You need to learn some manners. If you lost money by listening to anyone, how smart does that make you?
lol mat, just because i know this fraud’s record doesn’t mean I was a subscriber, lol.
beside if I ever WAS a sub, wouldn’t i be up a ton of money and singing his praises by your account?
You’re damn fool Mat.
The problem is you know so little about this game there’s simply no hope that you could rise to the task of judging this fool properly.
You haven’t the experience and so are doomed.
Like I said, Gary’s biggest asset is what his sub don’t know. There’s a sea of fools out there asking to get hooked. You’re but one.
Do you know how to read, JoeBlow? I said I had no interest in this issue, and you think I’m a sub?
By ASSuming that I have no experience, you show what a low-class fool you are. My activities in this sector have been extremely good to me.
Guys….just stop the fight. It does not worth it. The only clown here is Gary. We could actually express our opinions here, in this program, if AL allows us to do that. That will be so much constructive, educational and unbiased since we do not have subscriptions to sell.
Joe you could express your opinions in this program if AL allows it. I am sure we can all benefit from your unbiased expertise.
Matthew same to you. I suggest we ask AL about that.
Again, The Flea, I ask you to substantiate instead of talking in generalities.
And by the way, I am pretty well educated.
I would really like, as would the others on this site, to get this settled once and for all without all the emotions.
Can you do that?
Just get rid of this clown Gary and give space to other people. I am sure that Mathew, Jay, Joe or even me have more honest, accurate and UNBIASED opinions than clown Gary. Just make your program more diverse and listen to unbiased people who have no interest in selling subscriptions.
Pibe, it gets even better.
I took a handful of Gary’s now FORMER subs, that were hot as fire over that tool lying to them and for running them through his assisted suicide machine, weeded out the tools on his sub list (99% of them) and then FOR FREE gave them several methods that are head and shoulders above anything Gary has ever dreamed of and we made money pretty much from day one. From there I gave them a few more tools to look at that I think have a lot of merit for the rest of their lives.
Again this was all free and we carried it on for quite a long time.
You are correct, Pibe. I have zero interest in selling subscription and in fact almost zero interest in helping people for months on end, but for exceptional frauds like Gary, I made an exception for his own subs and proved it to them, lest there be any doubt as to why the fool (Gary Savage) should never be listened to.
Fools like our friend Mat here can only sing the same tired song. We are against Gary and his lies and nonsense, therefore we must be disgruntled subs of this or some other ‘guru’ when in fact we are just able to discern fools and lairs.
We’re simply performing a public service because we know better.
Joe, I made a simple observation from Pibe’s link and you idiotically think I am “singing Gary’s praises.”
If you aren’t a former subscriber, what’s with all this energy you have for Gary??? Funny.
I really like what you did. I did not have the balls to do that but I really congratulate you for doing something like that.
Thank you Joe – I really mean it-
BTW: I have to use a different e-mail address now because I think my real one does not work anymore or has been blocked (Posted too many comments maybe?).
You have not been blocked, but some of your posts that contain links to other sites have been flagged as possible spam. I have approved your comments. Our spam filter is not 100% accurate, and I apologize that some of your comments were delayed in appearing on the site.
JoeH is absolutely correct. Joe H’s methods preserve capital and make money as well.
Gary’s methods mainly only work in a bull market, and involve so much risk that failure is a mathematical certaintly over the long haul. Any guru can appear to be a genius temporarily, even though it’s only temporary luck or a bull market.
As a matter of fact, JoeH predicted that Gary would underperform the fixed interest rate on ordinary T-Bills over the long haul. He made the prediction when Gary appeared to be doing well (was up 29%) and Joe’s prediction came absolutely true. He also predicted that another guru (a futures day trader named Robert Hoffman) would eventually blow out his account due to taking too much risk, and that came true as well!
Here’s the bottom line. Gary made his subs a lot of money during the silver run. From what Igather most did 100% or more. Personally I did better as I took a large position in AGQ. From the top in 2011 he still did quite well, about 20% in choppy declining market. Like I said he got caught by the manipulation but what gold bug didn’t?
He got his subs out in Jan with a 10% loss on Leaps.
He called the bottom in June to the day. His real time calls on the stock market have been nothing short of amazing. And he got everone out at the exact top of the rally on Sept. 3.
I can vouch for all this as I have been a sub for 5 years.
This is the real story.
I hope you continue to have Gary on the show. I think most traders can see through these petty attacks and I think most people just ignore these nitwits.
Thanks for the great site.
Thank you Roger,
All I can do is be honest and try hard!
I don’t recall Gary getting anyone out of anything in January. The way I recall it, he removed the Model Port in February from his site, but that doesn’t mean he got anyone out of anything. My understanding was he wanted to discontinue making actual trade recommendations and just focus post his entertaining (because that’s all it’s good for) analysis. He had an “Old Turkey” port in place of the Model Port, but the idea was that the Metals Secular Bull Market will win out over the “manuipulation” and you just can’t trade a “maniupulated” market anymore, so you may as well just buy and hold. Never mind that he previously didn’t believe that the metals market could be successfully manipulated.
As an ex-subscriber I have to admit that I don’t know anybody who is defending Gary’s performance like “Roger”, because honestly there is no good performance to defend. Gary tried to hide the horrible performance by taking away the “model portfolio” and closing the comments section because of too many complains . Horrible past performance (41% documented accuracy) and no more model portfolio are the REAL STORY..
Please e-mail me your proof. (firstname.lastname@example.org)
I will take it very seriously.
I cannot post comments in this site anymore. Please unblock me. Thanks
Pibe – You have not been blocked, but your post that contains links to other sites was flagged as possible spam. I have approved your comment. I apologize that some of your comments were delayed in appearing on the site.
Al, even though you asked Pibe for this, I just emailed you some proof that Gary took down his Model Port at the end of January. Thanks in advance for checking it out.
Here’s proof that Gary shut down the comments section on the free blog….he blamed it on “trolls” but the so-called trolls were ultimately proven correct. This happend several months before the Model Port ultimately was taken down, and before he started censoring the paid comments section.
Bear in mind, that Gary also promised to step away from the paid comments section (’cause he couldn’t handle the “trolls” their either) but he then divided the comments into a moderated and non-moderated chat, but they both were ultimately moderated (he kicked people off of his paid site if they made highly critical comments in the NON-moderated section even though he said he wasn’t going to pay any attention to the non-moderated comments) Granted, he did give the people he kicked off a refund for the paid months they had left….but I believe he was required to do so.
Proof that Gary HAD a model portfolio in the past and also closed the comments section:
Proof that flipping a coin outperforms Gary’s accuracy (50% vs 41.9%)
Gary – “I think I’m about to win a whole lot of burritos ” // I think he owes a gazillion burritos! 😉
Just get lost please!
Sorry I meant Gary to get lost. He can swallow all the burritos he wants. That guy is just a scammer.
I am ex subscriber of Smart Money Tracker too. What Pibe and Jay write is very true.
Please all of you do yourself a favor and don’t listen/follow Gatry. Being a subscriber of him was the worst mistake I have made in terms of investing. Do not be fooled by him and his talk.