Gary Savage – Tue 22 Oct, 2013

So far today we are over that $1340 line in the sand.

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Featuring:
Al KorelinGary Savage

Comments:
  1. On October 22, 2013 at 9:06 am,
    franky says:
    • On October 22, 2013 at 9:18 am,
      franky says:

      DOLLAR RALLY I DON’T think so BUY BOYS I WILL BUY MORE PVG ! BUY REAL GOLD !

      • On October 22, 2013 at 12:18 pm,
        Bobby says:

        Franky, PVG is in the toilet, dead as Bobby Chapman.

        • On October 22, 2013 at 12:42 pm,
          jonnalin says:

          time will tell AL BLOCK ME SORRY BYE BOYS

          • On October 22, 2013 at 3:30 pm,
            Irwin says:

            Pretium shares sink as geologists declare ‘no valid gold’ at B.C. project

            financialpost.com

          • On October 22, 2013 at 6:31 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Never invested in it Irwin. Glad I did not!

          • On October 22, 2013 at 6:26 pm,
            Big Al says:

            I am not sure what you are trying to say big guy. I am blocking no one. If I have a problem with a comment (and it takes a lot for me to have a problem) I simply delete it.

          • On October 22, 2013 at 8:48 pm,
            Matthew says:

            I also never bought PVG. I am not interested in anything in B.C.

          • On October 22, 2013 at 9:54 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Pretty broad brush, but you gotta do what is right for you!

            And by the way Matthew I am very serious and I know you are smart enough to do it!

          • On October 23, 2013 at 1:57 am,
            franky says:

            tank u Irwin Al Matthew i trust Robert Quartermain, and i will not sell PVG i i will buy same more no much tanks nice yo care ! I appreciate

  2. On October 22, 2013 at 9:22 am,
    gary says:

    Too many people on the same side of the boat when it comes to the dollar. 30% bulls last week. This week will almost certainly be under 30%. That is the kind of sentiment levels where the risk is we run out of sellers. When that happens you typically get a 4-6 week counter trend rally to ease sentiment levels and allow the next leg down to begin.

    • On October 22, 2013 at 1:29 pm,
      Bird Man says:

      Sounds about right, Gary. I can’t really call the dollar just yet but my senses tell me it has gone into a new down trend. short term it should indeed bounce but not before it drops a few cents below 79. The big show will wait until mid winter by my estimates when a more serious correction takes it towards old lows from a few years back.

  3. On October 22, 2013 at 9:32 am,
    SD Marc says:

    Speaking of Kitco, Gurwitz of Charles Nenner research is on video today. Again, he emphasized a stagnation of the metals markets for the forseeable future. Man, I just don’t see it. I don’t see it at all. I dont want to start listing reasons here. We have messaged those reasons to high heaven on this blog. Sure, I am heavily invested in this sector. The fundamentals just don’t seem to agree with Nenner. Jim Sinclair respects Nenner. I wonder what Sinclair would say now. I will say that I FIRMLY believe that those fundamentals of geopolitical and macro economic aspects will TRUMP Nenner’s research and ultimately prove him wrong. I think the next significant upleg in this market is A LOT closer than Nenner’s research would indicate….A LOT closer. If anything, I can see the metals resurgence delayed until late 2014 (Matthew’s sentiment) but that is it.

  4. On October 22, 2013 at 9:48 am,
    SD Marc says:

    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/schiff/schiff102213.html..I dont care what you guys think rightly or wrongly about Schiff…he is right…that is ALL that matters…the points he argues, quite convincingly, will trump ‘cycles’ that Nenner can come up with in regards to the metals. We live in times NO PERSON has EVER seen. You continue to “play” with paper and you will end up with nothing.

    • On October 22, 2013 at 11:09 am,
      Matthew says:

      Schiff knows what he is talking about but he gets a lot of criticism from those who are always focused on the short term. Most investors don’t use strategy and patience with an eye on the big win.
      On Nenner’s work, I actually don’t think that anything can trump cycles. BUT, (and I wonder if Nenner would agree) I do think that cycles can be hidden by fiat currency moves. In other words, gold might do quite well nominally during the period that Nenner says will be lackluster. This would make his work appear wrong. My agreement with his work is based on gold’s performance relative to other REAL assets. In other words, I don’t expect gold to start to consistently and dramatically outperform commodities and conventional stocks for at least a year. If these three asset classes are much higher one year from now, I would say that Nenner was right since gold would not have outperformed. USD underperformance is not the same thing as gold outperformance.
      As you know, I am as bullish as anyone and have been buying all weakness lately (I bought AXU very recently for under $1.20 and it is now $1.70).

      • On October 22, 2013 at 11:24 am,
        SD Marc says:

        As usual Matthew, thanks for all your incredibly insightful knowledge!

        • On October 22, 2013 at 11:35 am,
          Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

          ditto, thanks Matthew, A

      • On October 22, 2013 at 4:50 pm,
        JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

        March 2014………blow off time……..the fed is having their open market meeting.

  5. On October 22, 2013 at 9:57 am,
    USDBug says:

    What happened to the $1417.00 line in the sand?

    • On October 22, 2013 at 10:03 am,
      gary says:

      The line has moved down to $1375 now. $1375 was the previous daily cycle high. If gold can make a higher high on a daily cycle basis it would be a strong first step in confirming that $1250 was a higher degree bottom and not just a minor bottom.

      I still need to see what happens when the dollar rallies. I don’t mind missing a little bit of the rally to get confirmation that the decline is done. If the bubble phase has begun missing a little bit at the start is no big deal.

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=8&mn=6&dy=0&id=p07265864157&a=320417084&listNum=1

      • On October 22, 2013 at 1:15 pm,
        NYC says:

        wow! Bird please come to the rescue!

        • On October 22, 2013 at 1:44 pm,
          Bird Man says:

          Here is the thing, NYC……I believe the dollar is going to bounce soon and that will be gold negative (for the short term only) but I also feel certain the dollar will drop below 79 in the coming weeks. I am therefore feeling bullish on golds prospects looking forward although timing it’s triggers is not that easy to do so I just rough out the idea in my head in broad strokes. One thing I feel sure of though is that the dollar will be devalued by either the market, the Feds actions or Government (probably a combination of all three). Devaluation as we all know is baked in the cake and it has been going on relentessly for most of a century. That trend is not going to end. It is therefore a virtual guarantee we can all count on but in the long intervening periods of relative currency stability in between the drops you just can’t make a buck on it. To me we are nearing a new downturn though and when it comes it will be welcomed by those trying to drive some deceptive inflation in a near zero rate environment. It is an astonishing piece of acrobatic work that they are trying to pull off actually. We will get indirect inflation and yet cannot be certain rates will budge materially. Gold is now certain to benefit again so we should be watching it much more closely. Sentiments can turn very quickly.

          • On October 22, 2013 at 1:51 pm,
            NYC says:

            Thnx…FWIW i agree w all that…appreciate it

    • On February 1, 2014 at 8:21 am,
      Jay says:

      How one sets the scale has a lot to do with the impression such a chart gives (as you know). If the scale were set to inlucde just the range of returns and not zero plus an extra 100%, the impression of a mean-reverting system might evaporate. Similarly, if the chart showed only returns prior to the 1970s, you’d probably get the impression that returns were trending lower, rather than mean-reverting. A trading scheme based on the notion that returns would revert would have lost a lot of loot in the late 1970s and early 1980s.

  6. On October 22, 2013 at 10:14 am,
    USDBug says:

    Gary,

    We’ve been holding you to the fire but, I must tip my hat to you actually. You are one of the most flexible analysts/writers out there.

  7. On October 22, 2013 at 11:32 am,
    cameronlego says:

    It seems to me Gary changes this long term price target on Gold on a daily basis. Quite confusing to me.

    • On October 22, 2013 at 10:49 pm,
      gary says:

      My long term price target has never wavered. I think gold goes to $7000-$10,000 at the final bubble top.

      The only question is whether the bubble phase has begun or whether the manipulation is going to resume and try to drive gold back down to $1000 first.

      The prime opportunity will come as the dollar rallies out of the next intermediate cycle low. That’s when this rally is going to be tested.

  8. On October 22, 2013 at 12:24 pm,
    james (the greater) says:

    Remember you cant hit a moving target!

  9. On October 22, 2013 at 4:47 pm,
    JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

    AL ,,,do not admit you are in a Fog…………..

    • On October 22, 2013 at 6:30 pm,
      Big Al says:

      I have been in an absolute fog for almost 70 years!

      By the way, my golf scores in this weather are better than ever. Go figure!

  10. On October 22, 2013 at 4:52 pm,
    JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

    Blow off time…………….is March 2014……FED having their Open Market Meeting.

  11. On October 23, 2013 at 5:01 am,
    Bobby says:

    Gary, how long will gold stay at these highs? Will the smart people be able to get out in time? Should we have an exit strategy? Price target?

    • On October 23, 2013 at 7:49 am,
      gary says:

      I know of no way to pick a top in a parabola. My suggestion is when the Dow:gold ratio gets close to 1:1 get out and be satisfied.