Gary Savage – Fri 25 Oct, 2013

We start Friday with Gary Savage

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Al KorelinCory FleckGary Savage

  1. On October 25, 2013 at 9:08 am,
    gary says:
    • On October 26, 2013 at 1:27 pm,
      Jay says:

      It sure appears that you are doing nothing more than guessing what the “smart money” will do. After all, as a friend of mine just pointed out to me, it wouldn’t be very “smart” of them to tell you in advance about their plan. Unless you “know” something about what the “smart money” will do, it is just a guess, and I see no evidence that your guesses, over the long haul, are any better than a series of coin flips (likely worse as one web site has already reported).

      Sure, you will get lucky some of the time with some of your individual guesses, but that doesn’t mean you have any system of making guesses that actually would beat buying holding plain old SPY, plain old T-Bills, or even just hoarding plain old cash over the long haul. But I guess (pun unintended…LOL) there are still enough suckers out there willing to pay you (on your paid blog) for what still amounts to nothing but dart tosses or coin flips (at best). 😉

      • On October 27, 2013 at 10:03 am,
        gary says:

        I don’t make guesses. I follow my timing tools and sentiment. That’s basically all anyone can do in this business because no one has a crystal ball. Find a tool that gives you and edge and then stick with it.

  2. On October 25, 2013 at 9:14 am,
    SD Marc says:

    Again your theory makes as much sense as I have said. Cory pretty much nailed it: Gold (silver) will be the long-term survivors. It is not about making “money” so much as it is surviving with your “wealth” in tact. That is pretty much it. Because when the door slams make sure it is BEHIND you instead of IN FRONT of you.

    • On October 25, 2013 at 11:11 am,
      JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

      SD Marc………..I agree with you………… this market started in 2000,,,,and needs to run approximately 28 years……..therefore,,,,,,2028 will be the next low……so, let’s go half way……….puts us at 2014…., well, what do you know……looks like next year as a good year……………that is about all the TA anyone needs………….LONG TERM HANG IN THERE AND MAKE MONEY……….

  3. On October 25, 2013 at 9:27 am,
    Glen says:

    I believe gold is a good buy sub 1300. I continue to believe that gold will remain above 1250 but continue to range trade. The manipulators, whoever they might be will fail in any attempts to drive the price below 1250. I will not get excited at all about gold prices until they get above 1420 and hold this price for a week or 2.

  4. On October 25, 2013 at 9:38 am,
    Don says:

    Courtesy of Morris Hubbart’s chart work. A better proxy for the dollar is not DXY, but UUP. This 1 year chart with explanation by Morris shows a clear H & S formation with 2 base breaks. Realizing that Gary is a cycle man, but that cycles are not exact and can change, this chart suggests the world is getting tired of our profligacy in DC, with these endless debt increases. Another way of putting it is, “Would you buy a company with a chart like this?” And if the dollar as measured by the UUP proxy appears poised to start a new downleg, then it would challenge the assumption of Gary’s that gold and the dollar would move inversely over the short term (his 4-6 week time horizon).

  5. On October 25, 2013 at 9:41 am,
    james (the lesserrr) says:

    When are you going to listen?
    Today’s price action in gold is absolutely gorgeous!
    How many times have I said $1340 is the key critical price.
    The bears tried to take it below this level last night and into this morning.
    It briefly went slightly below this level and then the bulls fought back
    This was not a wasted day!
    On the contrary it was a battle all day and the bulls won this one.
    If gold closes above $1340, this will be the second day in a row.
    I said we need three consecutive days above this level to keep moving the ball forward.
    So far we are looking very good!
    It would be a shame to miss it becuase of someone elses guess…

    • On October 25, 2013 at 10:01 am,
      Matthew says:

      Notice that silver and the miners don’t seem to care much about gold being over $1340? If this level meant as much as you claim, they would reflect it. I think both will again outperform gold when we get the low $1350s out of the way.

    • On October 25, 2013 at 10:04 am,
      Matthew says:

      By the way, I do agree that getting a few closes above the 50/55 day moving average ($1343ish) is a good thing and that the day is not wasted.

    • On October 25, 2013 at 10:18 am,
      bj says:

      Agree about the 1340 area being pivotal. Lot’s of volume in this price range on both the daily and weekly charts. Resistance on the way up, support on the way down.

      The question remains how long can the dollar hang on with world opinion, especially among emerging super powers, going against it.

  6. On October 25, 2013 at 10:04 am,
    Greg J. says:

    I am listening to you The Greater, Sure dont hear much about people on this site dollar cost averaging..people just sitting on the sidelines!! I buy silver every week.Ann also buys silver every week.Ibelieve people underestimate the power of DCA!!

    • On October 25, 2013 at 10:06 am,
      Matthew says:

      I have been buying major weakness for weeks. No sidelines for me.

    • On October 25, 2013 at 11:25 am,
      irishtony says:

      Greg , Hi….Add me to that list…..Some think I’m mad perhaps I am….or perhaps i’m a clever little irish bunny…time will tell.

      • On October 25, 2013 at 11:43 am,
        Greg J. says:

        Irish T. Too funny,Hey…It’ possible,maybe even probable we are “mad”.I find i talk to myself a lot lately.

        • On October 25, 2013 at 12:15 pm,
          irishtony says:

          Greg….I used to talk to myself….I stopped when I realised I was a boring old sod.

          • On October 26, 2013 at 5:48 am,
            Ann says:

            Boring old sod? i don’t think so!!

    • On October 26, 2013 at 2:39 am,
      MNH says:

      Sadly, beginning with phyzz PM’s in spring 2001…been a nice couple years for DCA if ya ask me, Greg J.
      Said it before, will say it agian, if Silver looked good to me when spot was $48 why wouldn’t I like it today when spot is $22? If I liked Gold at $1800, why wouldn’t I be happy to add at $1345??

      • On October 26, 2013 at 2:41 am,
        MNH says:


  7. On October 25, 2013 at 10:06 am,
    james (the lesserrr) says:

    Matthew – First the price action has been centering around $1340 for quite some time. It has gone above it, pulled back below it and has a central tendency to go towards it.If it wasnt so important then why is everything always bouncing around it?
    Again, keep in mind there are other levels ahead. The $1400 psychological level, and the $1500 level (technically $1480 and above)
    Regarding silver. It is my opinion, and its only an opinion, that sometimes silver leads gold, sometimes gold leads silver, but it is always about gold. silver carries golds luggage.
    As far as the miners go, I could care less. again just me.

    • On October 25, 2013 at 10:29 am,
      Matthew says:

      Are you even looking at a chart? Resistance is not a line but an area. That area spans from the April low of $1321.5 to the April closing low of $1351.50 –just for starters.
      I realize that Rick’s excellent methods are different than standard TA, but he also said that $1340 is not significant.
      Regarding silver and the miners, I thought you would know their value even if you don’t care to own them. It is NOT a good sign for the whole sector when gold outperforms silver. It is also not a good sign when both metals outperform the miners.
      Silver has lead gold since the bull market began. It always peaks first and delivers much greater gains during the best rallies. The miners beat both metals during the best rallies.

  8. On October 25, 2013 at 10:35 am,
    james (the lesserrr) says:

    Yes I am looking at charts and price action, throughout the entire day. And since when is Rick gospel? No offense.
    The price action I observed, the ebbs and flows, had $1340 at a critical level. The prove is in the pudding! Look at what gold is doing now.
    Regarding minors. Ive owned minors in the passed. I stated in 2005 I picked many companies that were on the HUI for the simple reason that if I believed in gold and it was going up, the minors would too, and the second reason is that they were unhedged.
    comparing gold and minors are like comparing apples to oranges. Minors have management variables, cost variables, political variables…that gold doesnt have to contend with. Many a minor went down while gold was flying!
    We can agree to disagree!

    • On October 25, 2013 at 10:53 am,
      Matthew says:

      No, Rick is not gospel, but he does have a very good, and different, approach. You’re missing the point about the miners. I agree that, as investments, they are “apples and oranges,” but this does not diminish their utility as indicators.

      The fourth chart in the linked article shows that the April low is far more important. Look at the volume at the $1320 area compared to the volume at $1340.
      On the other hand, and in favor of your argument, the fifth chart does show that there is something to your $1340 (or least there WAS something to it 13 days ago).

    • On October 25, 2013 at 11:47 am,
      Bird Man says:

      Good comment Mattew.

      • On October 25, 2013 at 11:49 am,
        Bird Man says:

        I refer to your comment about silver leading gold (my first response landed out of place for some reason).

      • On October 25, 2013 at 2:04 pm,
        Timothy says:

        I’m shocked Bird Man…Looks like you and Matt have turn the leaf. You two actually agree on something.

        • On October 26, 2013 at 9:42 am,
          Bird Man says:

          Matthew has made many good comments that I agreed with and done some nice technical work. We only fell out over name calling but that is in the past.

  9. On October 25, 2013 at 10:38 am,
    JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

    The dollar….is taking a hit, now, because,…..UK just kissed us good bye….
    The German’s are next……….The Swiss, are pissed, ………the dollar is in the worst shape since 1949…………just my two dollar sense worth……

    • On October 25, 2013 at 11:37 am,
      irishtony says:

      Jerry you old rascal..i hope they are silver dollars….BTW how is it diddling with you, any truth in the rumour your spending the weekend with your best pal Obama , what are your plans , golf or fishing, me I would go for the fishing….dangerous stuff water……wink wink nudge nudge.

      • On October 25, 2013 at 12:19 pm,
        JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

        Hello Irish…………Actually,,,Barry and I are going frog gigging…..Have you ever been frog gigging…..You must go at nite,,and the tools you have are shaped like a pitch fork,, ………Barry, has been concerned lately,,it seems he has let his healthcare expire, and quite concerned he may injure himself while sticking the frogs, we decided that after sticking all the sheeple , it was time to find another type of entertainment….So, we decided ,,on frog gigging ,, which should be just as good as frigging the public, we are in the frigging frog gigging business ………..and hope it takes off better than the healthcare business….

        • On October 25, 2013 at 1:40 pm,
          irishtony says:

          Shame on you Jerry for gigging Kermits………I’m starting……THE POPULAR FRONT FOR THE LIBERATION OF FRIGGING FROGS……Please send all donations….(silver only) to madirish tony , hastings uk …Thank You.

          • On October 25, 2013 at 1:46 pm,
            JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

            Hastings………….isn’t that where all this trouble started in 1066ad. ….you aren’t any relation to MR.ROTH are you…….

          • On October 25, 2013 at 1:53 pm,
            JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

            btw…………….I know silver is going up…..We have TA…..TONY ARRIVAL…….., THIS IS A TRUE MARKET TIMER…………..

  10. On October 25, 2013 at 11:48 am,
    frr says:

    Wow; I’m so happy to see all these great TA guys spreading their wisdom openly – nothwithstanding rigged, computerized or even algo traded markets – totally negating FA and in reality “REALITY”.

    Just great, as the PPT has a lot more funds, more talent and more potential to counter the popular TA puppets on a string, doing not much more than alerting the cartel to minimize their indulgence for maximising their ultimate goals.

    While this has being going on, seemingly forever, some TA pushovers have surrendered to the enemy, while the real stalwart “gold bugs”, in the sense of true money have been left to dry.
    In the end there are just a few real defenders of PM’s as l.t. monetary assets, un-incumbered by anyones pledge … and the heck with the great timers telling you when to sell or buy your insurance on even spartan wealth!

    Only gold in your hand is “as good as GOLD”!

  11. On October 25, 2013 at 11:53 am,
    Bird Man says:

    Gary…..I agree with your basic theory today. The dollar should bounce but not until it falls below resistance. Metals will suffer for some time as a result while we await the more significant dollar drop coming in January/February. There is not always an inverse relationship between metals and USD of course but this particular setup has “gold smash” written all over it. By the way….I don’t agree with the conspiracy side of your argument but we are all free to have our own opinions.

  12. On October 25, 2013 at 1:10 pm,
    JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

    Guys……..THERE IS A GREAT ARTICAL…KWN…..Craig P. Roberts….says the dollar is being shunned by others,,,,now, the AUSSIES………BRICS,,,,UK…..
    this is not good ……….and the dollar is going down… is going up…people with out physical better get their house in order….

  13. On October 25, 2013 at 1:50 pm,
    scott says:

    I am having success in new positions in Tobbaco stocks and a few high tech. stocks . I am placing limit sell orders , reason being i see another congress debt limit fight in january , i feel i can make 5% profit on my new positions before Xmas . i plan to sell into strength before Xmas . I do see a modest bull run possible for the canadian dollar back to th e 99cent or 1.00 area. best of health and wealth to you all . S

    • On October 25, 2013 at 2:02 pm,
      JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

      TT……tobacco and tech…….sounds good……….I think you are correct…..

  14. On October 25, 2013 at 9:41 pm,
    Fromage says:

    I like cheese. The stinkier, the better.
    But all cheese is good cheese. Not that Velveeta or Kraft singles crap though, that is just horrendous.
    I eat cheese often. Because I like it.

  15. On October 27, 2013 at 2:04 pm,
    jibberjabber says:

    Nobody gives a rat’s ass about the dollar, and especially the dollar index. If people were manipulating gold as Gary says, they’re not doing it “to lower the starting price of the next bull run”.

    The G-man is upside down and can’t think straight. Now all his charts tell us specifically when manipulation took place, when two years ago nobody would ever do such a thing?

    While I feel bad for Gary, I’m glad not to many are on board. This is what bulls do, otherwise we’d all ride from the lower left to the upper right of a chart easily!

    What ever happened to “a bull market corrects all timing errors”? It would seem a great time to pull that one out of the drawer and sock some shit away for the long term, no?

  16. On October 27, 2013 at 11:25 pm,
    swingtrader says:

    I have to say I wouldn’t ignore GS he’s been on fire for as long as I’ve been a sub. I joined when he made the bottom call in miners in June. Heard it right here on KR. The guy hasn’t missed a call in four months. I’m making money hand over fist, so I really don’t know what these folks are complaining about.