Gary Savage – Wed 13 Nov, 2013

Late day commentary from Gary Savage, Big Al and Cory

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Featuring:
Al KorelinCory FleckGary Savage

Comments:
  1. On November 13, 2013 at 3:41 pm,
    franky says:

    day manipulat theDay manipulate so we can’t escape ! http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/business/Finance/article1335308.ece !

    • On November 13, 2013 at 4:41 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Thank you Franky,

      Short but interesting account!

  2. On November 13, 2013 at 4:14 pm,
    Jerry(Gator)M says:

    Stagnant and hard to stomach. Could get worse but PM’s are still the best place to be. The fundamentals have not changed so relax and don’t concern yourself with the near term action. Could be years before we reap the profits but we will. Stay strong. Buy at Gary’s target and then just set on it and wait to reap the rewards. Just my opinion. In the meantime enjoy life, be thankful for nature and cap the day with a big glass of red wine or your favorite scotch. If you are in Central Florida any member of this site gets a free trip on the St John’s waterway on our big pontoon. Free gator sightings, free deep fried gator tail and a free great time. Regards !!

    • On November 13, 2013 at 4:42 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Gator,

      The little blond lady and I will probably just take you up on that!

      Thanks

    • On November 13, 2013 at 9:11 pm,
      Flanagan says:

      Thank you for the offer. Always wanted to do that. Did visit the area before. How does one take you up on that offer??

      • On November 14, 2013 at 3:59 pm,
        Jerry(Gator)M says:

        Here’s my email. Its cold this time of year but the offer is always open.

        raccoonpossum@cfl.rr.com

  3. On November 13, 2013 at 5:30 pm,
    cecilhenry says:

    Hey Al:

    AS you may be aware, your website was down/unavailable for most of the day.

    A generic website domain server kept coming up. Thought you should know.

    • On November 13, 2013 at 5:32 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Thanks cecilhenry,

      Sarah took care of it after much work.

      Best

  4. On November 13, 2013 at 5:40 pm,
    sam says:

    I enjoy your discussion of the metals. I would love to hear some insights into what the options (gold futures options and gold miner options) say about pssbl gold direction.

    • On November 14, 2013 at 9:56 am,
      Big Al says:

      Okay

  5. On November 13, 2013 at 5:57 pm,
    Bird Man says:

    Nothing goes straight down, Gary!

    That is my humorous version of the stock market classic “nothing goes straight up” of course. The principle applies in both directions though. Right now you seem intent on believing that gold must drop right through to 1030 dollars or so from where it now sits without much drama in between. All wrong of course.

    In todays interview you said’ “Gold is doing pretty much what I had been expecting. The dollar is started to rally and gold is heading back down. Once it breaks that 1251 pivot from last month, and I am about 80 to 90 percent sure it is going to break that, then we’ll have a full test of that June low, probably in the next 5 to 7 days . I expect we will have some kind of a dead cat bounce off of that….and I really think were going to break that June low and go down and test that 1030 mark that I have been looking at for months and months now”.

    Wow! That is quite a drop. Fast too. Are you really sure about this Gary because your idea would peel about 250 from todays price without much of a breather between here and there (except for that li’l old dead cat bounce you think might creep in).

    I am betting you are getting ahead of yourself though. You see the dollar reversed (now heading lower), and so did gold (which rose). Take a closer look at your charts. Let me explain exactly why I think you are mistaken.

    On the USD hourly chart you can see that we bounced off 81.50 twice on the 7th and 8th of November. Yesterday was the third and final try and today the dollar is heading back down. I actually saw this coming last week and I wrote to tell you. I said:

    On November 8, 2013 at 10:39 pm, Bird Man says:
    “…..I think the gold declines are nearly at an end at least for the short term so holders should not lose faith too much just yet. To me the US dollar looks ready to flatten and turn back down and that could come at any moment.

    And then you responded:

    On November 8, 2013 at 11:45 am, Gary says:
    “It’s very unlikely this decline will end until the dollar rally is done. I doubt that is going to happen for another 3-5 weeks”.

    Well Gary, I think the dollar rally is done for the moment. To me gold has a little more life in it as well. I am not saying it won’t eventually see a retest of June’s 1190 figure because I do agree that is inevitable but what I argue against is how we will arrive there and how quickly it all happens. I think Docs got this one right when he says we have more sideways trading to go yet.

    • On November 14, 2013 at 10:00 am,
      Big Al says:

      I happen to agree with you Bird and that is not a negative comment about Gary.

      Again man, I listen to everyone because I am pretty convinced that is the only way to see the true entire story!

  6. On November 13, 2013 at 6:26 pm,
    Paul L says:

    The dollar has actually started a correction after the quick sharp move higher. Bird is correct. It has moved up too much too fast. This evening it has fallen below 81 after barely hanging on all day. Gold has spiked to a high of 1286 and currently at 1283 around 9:20pm eastern. ‘That is a significant $24 move from the 1262 bottom. We could have a rally starting in our gold stocks tomorrow.
    Good commentary on gold from Schiff:
    http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000217254

    • On November 13, 2013 at 6:38 pm,
      Bird Man says:

      Thanks for the endorsement Paul! Good to see others watching the short term moves.

      • On November 13, 2013 at 6:56 pm,
        Silverbug Dave says:

        It was a zoom up in the dollar from 79 to 81. SO maybe it is short term overbought. However, will it stop there or just pause?
        In the last year or so we have had quite a number of sudden up and downmoves in the USDX of similar magnitude.
        This market is teasing us in a fairly merciless way.

        • On November 13, 2013 at 7:06 pm,
          Silverbug Dave says:

          It’s a good observation Bird! I hadn’t seen it. Looking at the weekly chart, this downtrend pattern also shows up, though we are still in the middle of this week. It will perhaps be confirmed if we get a nice down candle for this week on the weekly chart?
          There is an awful lot of trading on the USDX in he 80 +/- 1 range. The fast pop up to 85 this year has been completely erased but is all looks pretty indecisive.

          • On November 13, 2013 at 9:31 pm,
            Bird Man says:

            Thanks Dave. Hey while you are checking charts you will probably notice that the Euro is giving a picture inverse to the dollar (higher highs and higher lows) suggesting it could go on quite a bit of a run yet. Gold is along for the ride naturally. This all fits in with recent Fed comments that more inflation (AKA dollar devaluation) was seen as desirable now. I very much doubt they are not going to deliver as promised. This does raise the specter though that Europe will be pushed into a depression in short order. Keep that in the back of your minds at all times as the Euro is rising most of the time the dollar is in decline. Their exports outside the EU are already falling other than for Germany so it suggests they will become more insular in that respect trading amongst each other while imports rise along with their powered up currency. Good time to start shipping goods to the zone maybe as buying power is rising. Where it lets up is anybodies guess.

            Hey, do you think this is the moment the dollar starts breaking down again like it did following year 2000?

  7. On November 13, 2013 at 6:29 pm,
    Paul L says:

    TMM was up about 10% today at one time and closed around 7 higher. It fell to 1.20 which is the same price when production had not yet begun early 2010.

    • On November 13, 2013 at 6:51 pm,
      Bird Man says:

      By the way, Paul…..if you need a reason to feel a little optimistic about gold we just got it with this last dollar move. Go straight to the daily USD chart and you will see that off the high of 85 in July we now have 3 lower highs and 2 lower lows bringing us to where we are today. I am going to say that the dollar is going to make that 3rd lower low as the trend looks to have changed. That means it is going to fall towards .78

      So gold is pretty much a shoe-in for a rise while the Euro follows suit, It is a picture that will make most gold buyers sweeten to the idea of a dollar devaluation. Weird how fast the chart picture can change over a weekend is it not?

    • On November 14, 2013 at 8:05 am,
      Dan, calgary says:

      I bought into TMM yesterday morning after selling my HMD hedge for a bit of a profit. Looking at an oversold SPM (Scorpio) and WS (Wildcat) for some spec. stuff. All three trade on the TSX big board not the ‘Venture to the Bottom’ Index.

      Agreed on the ‘Yellen Turn-around’ for gold.

      • On November 14, 2013 at 8:08 am,
        Dan, calgary says:

        Tax-Loss-Selling just around the corner; IMHO it is time to be very nimble as PM stocks are prime candidates for being sold.

        • On November 14, 2013 at 8:49 am,
          Bird Man says:

          But that is the beauty of it Dan….they are already sold and there are not buyers to mop up many more. This might just present an excellent entry to buy though. I will get back to this later.

  8. On November 13, 2013 at 7:21 pm,
    Paul L says:

    A break below 80.50 is just what we need to break the rally.

  9. On November 13, 2013 at 8:00 pm,
    Dick Tracy says:

    Remember this is particularly the time to think about family, keep the home fires burning brightly. DT

    • On November 13, 2013 at 9:21 pm,
      Bird Man says:

      Stop it DT! We are getting excited about the possibility of a little old gold rally. Be sure to buy your loved one something golden this Christmas and remember….it is coming at a discount to last years price so the timing is good for gift giving.

  10. On November 14, 2013 at 4:28 am,
    gary says:

    It’s probably too early for the dollar to begin a move down into a daily cycle low and in fact it has erased all of yesterdays losses this morning.

    The reason I think we will see a very quick move down is the same one that caused the $200 point drop in April. There are a ton of stops right below $1179. If those stops get run we will probably see another waterfall decline just like June and just like April.

    • On November 14, 2013 at 7:52 am,
      Bird Man says:

      You think those stops are a magnet for another gold decline?

    • On November 14, 2013 at 8:19 am,
      Dan, calgary says:

      I disagree. A sudden attempted drop in gold would clue the American people in to buying gold as the new FED dove, Yellen, should not equal lower gold prices. Maybe Yellen will spin her head around and become a Hawk but she was appointed because her dovishness matches the pablum we are fed from the MSM and Hollywood.

      Why not in the down is up and black is white crowd (;-)

      • On November 14, 2013 at 8:45 am,
        Bird Man says:

        I think you may have a good point there Dan. Price of both dollars and gold might well be getting moved by sentiments in anticipation of Yellen’s installation. The message that has already been sent to the market is that devaluation (higher inflation) is now desired and this strongly suggests steps will be taken to achieve that goal. We may even see new programs rather than mere expansions of exisiting MBS and Treasury agendas. I rather doubt they will expand the current initiatives as that would make them look silly. Rather what I expect is they will indeed retire (taper) some portion of the current amounts while instead creating a new offsetting program in its place. We shall see what Yellen does to put her own mark on the Fed. She is not Bernanke though so lets keep that in mind. Something new ALWAYS comes with a change of leader. The market is just trying to front-run now and gold could benefit.

  11. On November 14, 2013 at 8:49 am,
    Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

    Dan, Janet Yellen has been compared to a soft-hearted school teacher who then gets promoted to principal. If she continues in her old ways the markets will ride rough shod over her and she’ll lose all credibility.

    So yes, against al her ‘better’ judgment she could yet become a hawk

    • On November 14, 2013 at 9:25 am,
      Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

      That said, Kitco reports Yellen pledging to go on doing what’s expected of her. Could be a piece of bluster I suppose like Benanke’s bluff-calling over tapering.

  12. On November 14, 2013 at 8:56 am,
    Dan, calgary says:

    “I rather doubt they will expand the current initiatives as that would make them look silly. Rather what I expect is they will indeed retire (taper) some portion of the current amounts while instead creating a new offsetting program in its place.” Bird Man

    IMHO absolutely right on.

    • On November 14, 2013 at 9:57 am,
      Bird Man says:

      Thanks Dan….you must be in politics!