Gary Savage – Fri 22 Nov, 2013

Gary Savage with his Friday comments on gold

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Gary SavageCory Fleck

  1. On November 22, 2013 at 12:29 pm,
    CFS says:

    I just bought some silver stock and am seriously beginning to think about selling physical gold in order to buy more PM equities over the next couple of years.

    I have a six month fiat cash balance for living expenses, which I NEVER use for investment, which I could stretch to a year if I had to.

  2. On November 22, 2013 at 12:36 pm,
    gary says:

    Just to clear up any confusion as these cycles can be a bit complicated. If gold is ever going to go to $1030 it has to do it at an intermediate cycle low. The next one of those is due either in the next couple of days along with the current daily cycle, (unlikely in my opinion) or at the next daily cycle bottom. That bottom is due in early to mid Dec.

    There is very little chance that the intermediate cycle could include another daily cycle after Dec. so if gold is ever going to make it to $1030 it has to do it in the next 3-4 weeks. If it doesn’t get there by then then it’s not going there.

    Either way we are going to get a major major buying opportunity very soon. Possibly in the next few days but more likely in the first or second week of Dec.

    • On November 22, 2013 at 3:46 pm,
      Silverbug Dave says:

      Gary I admire you for your courage to make this call and to stick to it.

    • On November 23, 2013 at 1:17 am,
      Thomas says:

      Is first and second week of December not also the time where most tax loss selling takes place?

  3. On November 22, 2013 at 12:47 pm,
    CFS says:

    Off subject:
    I regularly read SEC filings of rich people like Icahn, Soros, Gates, Buffet etc. to get investment ideas.

    I had a suprise today…. Soros appears to be buying Cameco (CCJ). This is not Advice, just a comment.
    I own a chunk of Cameco, bought before and after the Fukushima disaster and am not planning on increasing my holdings. I also hold a half-dozen other uranium stocks, but CCJ is my biggest U holding.

    • On November 22, 2013 at 1:20 pm,
      Bird Man says:

      A good move if you think long term. Uranium is beaten to ratshit and has been down a long time already. Recycled warheads are almost finished and current mine supply is hardly able to meet even existing demands. China menwhile is not backing off plans to build the reactors it has on the books. Despite all the bad publicity about uranium it has the potential to be a goldmine of opportunity in the coming years by buying in at deep discounts. Especially when the miner is in a great jurisdiction like Canada.

  4. On November 22, 2013 at 12:56 pm,
    CFS says:

    The reason I am considering selling physical gold is NOT because I am worried about price – I have ridden it down for the last 3 years. It is because I believe we are approaching a turn around and wish to be more heavily leveraged for any movement upwards. (I do not often use options to gain leverage, unless I believe we are in both secular and cyclical bulls simultaneously for a particular stock.)
    This is my way of timing purchases, without having to be spot on……historically I always seem to be early.

  5. On November 22, 2013 at 1:16 pm,
    Bird Man says:

    I am sticking with my call of two weeks back that the dollar will keep falling. We are in a 6 month decline already and I do not see that trend letting up anytime soon. Best to ignore the action over short time periods though and just follow the larger move in my opinion but it should become gold-positive eventaully. The amazing story that China has just announced it is no longer in its interests to keep increasing its foreign exchange holdings will no doubt put pressure on the dollar while strengthening the Yuan. I believe this signals that a trend is also underway to eventually move away from buying US dollar denominated debt (Treasuries). Capital can now flow to where it is most beneficial for China and we can safely assume they will now be deploying those dollars to where they are both needed and wanted. This is probably not a big surprise to most people anyway. China is heavily overweight a currency (USD) that looks to be on a devaluation trajectory given enough time. That however is not the real point here. You see, opportunity knocks and the Chinese have simply recognized it for what it is. Do you all recall the horror of the “taper tantrum”? What happened then was that dollars got sucked out of emerging markets by the retail crowd and some countries were drained bone dry in short order. Maybe that was just a dress rehearsal to test the waters for when the real taper comes. In any case, EM’s suffered a body blow due to taper talk, currencies declined against dollars and outflows from EM equity and debt funds shocked some folks. Central Banks went on the defence and burned through plenty of their exchange to support their own currencies. You can probably see where this is all leading…..IF the Fed tapers there is going to be significant demand for dollars in EM’s and it is certainly in the interests of the Chinese to use that advantage (and their dollar hoard) to acquire quality assets in trade for those much needed dollars. I think this is exactly why they are now backing away from “holding” so much FX as it has suddenly become extremely beneficial for them to unload dollars in exchange for assets while also providing much needed liquidity to the EM’s that are becoming China’s better customers. Call this a recycling program with dollars being put to use in the best possible way that supports trade goals and more diversification into resources in the developing world. Just my theory. We shall see what happens next.

    • On November 22, 2013 at 1:22 pm,
      franky says:

      SISSY BIRD BORING !!!!!!!!

      • On November 22, 2013 at 1:28 pm,
        franky says:


      • On November 22, 2013 at 1:31 pm,
        Bird Man says:

        You will have to help me out Frank because I am unable to load video on my connection. So I can’t see your vid. What is it exactly that you are trying to say?

        Getting back to my post above…it is my belief that the Chinese are about to embark on a wide ranging asset purchase program spannng the globe and that they will use the taper as cover to get their needs met. I am talking mines, forests, water rights, licenses to search for energy and outright purchases of property. When they tell us that they will no longer increase their foreign exchange hoards that is not exactly the same as telling us what they WILL BE DOING. It is my contention that they will be adding a lot of liquidity to the global system in the form of dollars during the taper and that it will be most beneficial for them to do so. This could signal a dramatic change in commodity markets as they once again get bid up. This indeed may be the turning point…….stay tuned.

        • On November 22, 2013 at 1:32 pm,
          franky says:

          BIORD GO WORK WORK BIRD !!!!!!!!!

        • On November 22, 2013 at 2:42 pm,
          CFS says:

          nky’s first utube post was about a billionaire’s champagne party.
          The second was an older news item about Buffett and Soros shedding consumer spending stocks.

          • On November 23, 2013 at 1:18 am,
            Bird Man says:

            Thanks for the help , CFS. I actually thought it might be video of a dog eating a bird or somethng equally crazy. Bit of a distraction. Anyway, you have any thoughts on this policy shift from the Chinese regarding the ending of foreign exchange accumulations? You see, what has me interested is not just that they claim they are ending a Yuan interventionist strategy but more importantly, what they will do in its place. This all comes down to capital flows of course. Looking at it another way, in the past month China’s FX increased by 166 billion dollars and the majority of that arose from trade advantages and exports to the West despite the fact the Yuan has been increasing in strength. In practice if the Yuan rises further as an outcome of an end to holding its value at some specified amount relative to dollars then over time the trade imbalance with the most deeloped nations will slow. Jobs will return to the US for example as Chinese production rises in price in dollar terms and a competitive advantage based on a managed currency slowly disappears. But what of the reserves themselves and what of the current new accumulations that are not considered beneficial anymore? They have not just vanished. If they are not being utilized to manage the Yuan then where do they go? I think we can all appreciate that as far as FX goes the Chinese have eaten the globe and their share keeps rising even as the emerging market countries are being starved into a slowdown. The consequences of shortages of reserve currencies in developing countries cannot be overstated. This is creating a significant drag on global growth at this time. The Chinese share meanwhile is in excess of all the reserves of the next 5 largest holders including the European Union, Russia, Saudi, Switzerland and Japan combined. I am only theorizing that a lot of captial is coming into play that will not be used as it traditionally was to hold down the Yuan and that something else will now happen. Anyone else have any thoughts on what is coming next? So far they have told us what they will stop doing. What we don’t know is what they will do instead!

          • On November 23, 2013 at 2:16 am,
            Bird Man says:

            Obviously this topic is not of any interest to anyone on this site (except Franky!) but I think what we are hearing now is really important. It is not necessarily a bad thing for the PBOC to now pursue a strong Yuan policy either. There will be repercussions for trade though and for costs at the till in Europe and America. Consider that the dollar may face a period of weaking relative to the basket of reserve currencies even as the Yuan is strengthening. One of the questions in my mind now is this a time to start considering buying Yuan or Yuan based investments. How high might the Yuan go in fact? Will the effect of a stronger currency actually draw more investment capital back to China? And what of their stock markets? Will the Chinese people be on a buying spree across the globe as their money appreciates in strength? Will tourism out of Asia boom and bring a gift in the form of flights and hotels to desired locations? What about property acquisitions in key markets like LA, London, New York and Vancouer? There are a lot of questions to be asked and not a lot of analysis has yet been done. Surely there are others who smell an opportunity here though……or I am totally alone in this thinking?

          • On November 23, 2013 at 2:20 am,
            Bird Man says:

            How about it Al? What do your guests think? What will be the impact on gold and commodities?

        • On November 22, 2013 at 2:45 pm,
          CFS says:

          Another Franky post was in dutch, but might have been double dutch as far as I’m concerned.

          • On November 22, 2013 at 2:58 pm,
            franky says:

            CFS don’t buy pvg ok yo no heppy sorry ok

        • On November 22, 2013 at 3:00 pm,
          franky says:


  6. On November 22, 2013 at 1:31 pm,
    franky says:


    • On November 22, 2013 at 1:35 pm,
      Bird Man says:

      Franky having mental breakdown?

      • On November 22, 2013 at 1:36 pm,
        franky says:

        EAT THE DOG BIRD !

        • On November 22, 2013 at 2:20 pm,
          JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

          we need a translator…………..

          • On November 22, 2013 at 2:32 pm,
            franky says:

            bitcoin yeeeeeeeeeeeeeee ok stop now

          • On November 22, 2013 at 3:53 pm,
            Silverbug Dave says:

            Franky havinbg a mental breakdown, Bird? I think Franky is kind of the Ozzy Osbourne of!

        • On November 23, 2013 at 1:29 am,
          Bird Man says:

          Or maybe Alice Cooper!

      • On November 22, 2013 at 2:35 pm,
        CFS says:

        Bird, I sometimes think Franky lives on a different planet.
        He certainly often types in a language unknown to me!
        I am able to understand 1 year olds better

        Now to check out his citations…..I will translate if relevant.

    • On November 22, 2013 at 1:43 pm,
      franky says:

      shum party off wall street !!!!!!!

  7. On November 22, 2013 at 2:35 pm,
    franky says:

    THE elite rulers of the world play the western world !

  8. On November 22, 2013 at 3:49 pm,
    Gold Bug says:

    Time to load up! I don’t care if gold is first going to drop to $1,000 or not, all I care is that eventually it’s going to rise to $10,000.

  9. On November 22, 2013 at 4:20 pm,
    franky says:

    The books are cooked !

  10. On November 22, 2013 at 7:57 pm,
    bj says:

    When I look at a 10+ year monthly chart and draw a mean regression line it goes from lower left to upper right and recent basing in the 1240-1260 area with plenty of volume. Support on the way down, resistance on the way up. Now, a double bottom, triple bottom or reverse head and shoulders with pressure building to the upside. Not much help for day traders other than to suggest a range, but the monthly mean regression line helps keep it all in perspective.

    So I’ll be surprised AND disappointed if we go down and test Gary’s 1,000 area. I don’t think the physical market will allow it. …and like in the good old days of my youth riding in the back of the car on a long trip, I ask are we there yet while I wish it were so.

  11. On November 22, 2013 at 8:02 pm,
    Skeeta. says:

    Still can’t get Gary’s views downloaded via itunes….click the link above on the RHS. ?

    … your IT guy earning his keep fella’s ?……or is he snoozing at the wheel of incompetence ?

  12. On November 24, 2013 at 5:56 am,
    Gold Bug says:

    Major turning point! Told you it’s time to load up! That said, I think bitcoin will greatly outperform gold/silver.

    • On November 24, 2013 at 7:22 am,
      Bird Man says:

      Based on what?

  13. On November 25, 2013 at 5:44 am,
    Gold Bug says:

    Gary is the only indicator you ever need to trade and pocket 10 baggers. He screams “major turning point” and all should listen. If you lose money by listening to him, it has to be your fault because you must have not listened carefully enough and understood what he actually meant.

  14. On November 25, 2013 at 8:23 am,
    Gary says:

    I suspect that the reason most lose money has to do with risk management. If one leverages heavily it only takes a tiny move against you to lose a big part of ones portfolio.

    What most don’t listen to is my warnings about position size. That is absolutely the responsibility of each trader.

  15. On November 27, 2013 at 2:25 pm,
    Gold Bug says:

    Bitcoin over $1000. Told you guys.