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Here is some commentary from another Gary just to bring a little balance. The article is from Gary Shilling and published on the Financialsense site. I thought it was a good read especially since there has been so much negative commentary written on the dollar, its demise and how currency problems will doom us all in the coming years. Gary is of the view (as am I) that the dollar is not in fact at risk of losing reserve status nor plunging into the abyss as the dollar collapse folks might have us believe. Read his reasons why and judge for yourself.
Six Major Reasons Why the Dollar Won’t Collapse ~~ Financial Sense commentary on Gary Shilling
Everyone is printing money to gain a trade advantage via devaluation of currencies. This looks like the primrose path to global trade wars and a domino theory collapse (not spread) of global communism.
Socialism is collapsing western economies becuase as Margret Thatcher once explained–the Marxists will run out of other people’s money to spend. And as Karl Marx explained, the rich own the government and the poor never had it to pay. Thus the unending exploitation of the private sector middle class until it collapses under the weight of runaway government.
Now the tax void due to a collapsing middle class is being back-filled by the central banks printing money like there is no tomorrow. Clearly, communism is a failed economic model–and no, you’re not going to be able to keep your doctor much less hide your money from the robber barons who run the banks. Likewise fascism is failing too because corporate welfare drinks from the same pool of money.
Gary suggest hyper inflation is possible. In consideration of the above, I don’t see how it can be avoided. What’s going on today is just winding the spring tighter and tighter until it all unwinds.
many problems in this complex issue. One is that the standard metric is to compare the USD to the rest of the G7–and when you have Yen and Eurodollar in there its a great metric for saying the dollar is in good condition.
Try the broader g20. Try including China in the basket of currencies–why do that–I think China’s Yen has 17% of global trace, most of that to Walmart et al.
then you have the traditional probably correct metric-how much money in a fiat is out there and whats backing it. in the 50’s we used to hat something like 15,000 tons backing the dollar and silver too. Today we have far more paper outstanding and maybe 8000 tons someplace.
Actually if we keep what other countries have placed in storage with us we might be in decent shape. Other than a war over the gold.
Shilling is no fool though. But then again, if China and Japan and Russia and others could get out from under the dollar they would for econ reasons and also to get back at us
Look, I am nobody but here are my quick thoughts about shillings dollar view:
Productivity-yeah–we are so productive people do not have jobs–manufacturing might be coming back to US but a lot of robotics–wait til robotics in farming takes hold-and what do we all think abut self checkouts in retail and checki-ns at airport–thank heaven for TSA. Think about legal docs sent by PDF.
Largest Economy-of the 15.7 Trillion, (which might be high due to inflation and inventory building) 1 trillion is due to government deficit spending. Put aside out debt to GDP is off the charts and we have no way of paying obligations unless we inflate them away or pure default-
Free Markets–yep, we have free markets when the Fed says its managing interest rates and just abut everything else.
no substitute–maybe a basket of countries become substitutes, like China, Russia, Germany, Brazil.
Credibility-I am embarrassed by our lack of credibility
Shilling might be getting old and living when he was in his prime.
I agree with Bird Man on this… it is important to at least consider the other side of the trade. It keeps you honest and forces you to re-examine your own beliefs. No problem with that.
I have read Mr. Shilling with interest for many years. He has made some great calls.
All of that said, having read the article, I do not find his arguments to be convincing. The focus of his argument is that there is no good currency-based alternative to the U.S. dollar. But he doesn’t realize that all fiat currencies could be in a race to the bottom and replaced by a new global currency, IMF SDRs, or single-country currencies which are partially or fully backed by precious metals.
It is not a question of whether the dollar is losing value — it HAS lost more than 95% of its purchasing power since the creation of the Federal Reserve. Note too, that it doesn’t have to go away for gold to soar in dollar terms. There have been several de facto devaluations over the years. Another reset could take place, with the dollar still in existence but severely devalued (once again) vs. gold and silver.
To me, it ultimately comes down to the most basic supply/demand economics. Gold is in relatively short supply (vs. the global population) and in strong demand. Dollars have been printed in almost limitless supply. If tens of thousands of dollars have been printed for each ounce of gold on reserve, what is the dollar value of gold? It’s not rocket science. The price is going there, one way or the other.
Good points, Eric. You know, despite being the meanest and most ornery of gold bears I do in fact agree that the upside to golds price might come as a big surprise when it finally does start moving again. That break we have seen between Fed printing and golds price (when the two had been moving in near perfect sync previously) is suggestive of a really strong gain somewhere down the road. With all currencies in decline against one another and low rates expected to continue for many years it seems inevitable that gold must shine again and put a spotlight back on relative values. Like you say….gold priced in dollar terms is the game. The dollar itself though is hardly at risk. We will just have a lot more of them in our pockets!
Yes, I could see that scenario playing out. (One guy named ‘Bird’ and one guy named ‘Crane’ — we can’t always be at odds!). Have a good night!
Thanks Bird Man and Eric. Hope the going cold turkey BM isn’t too unbearable! A
The strange thing, Andrew, is that I miss the sugar in my coffee the most. The others seem to have gone by the wayside with less effort than I expected. The damn sugar makes me crazy though. Java black is just never quite the same as a sweet hot drink.
I find this interesting as the USD -fed fiat note has collapsed over time.
The Chinese will allow the Comex and LBMA to hold down gold and silver only for so long
before the US Fed fiat note’s purchasing power heads to the 1% arena:
This is not a US dollar backed by silver or gold.
The US refused to back this fiat with any gold from 1971 onwards.
This is a Fed fiat note backed by the faith and trust of the biggest thieves the world has ever encountered.
Hyperinflation is caused by an unwarranted increase in the money supply and a lack of trust in the nation issuing that currency.
Unfortunately for America your nation refuses to fight for US fiscal independence like Jackson did and Kennedy attempted to do.
All I know is that gold juniors have taken a heavy hit, gold price seems to be going down. The risk here is that a lot of mining companies can’t sustain with a sub $1100 gold price. SO I don’t think even the manipulators will allow it to drop below that price.
I personally wish I hadn’t invested in gold, every other sector seems to have outperformed it in the last 3 years.
Might I suggest that you change the way you think about this business. The is no such thing as a missed opportunity cost. Why? Because no one has a crystal ball. It’s impossible to know ahead of time which sector the herd is going to gravitate to next.
I will say this though. Yes you may have missed making in money in stocks over the last year but if one can catch the bottom of this bear market then you will make more money in the first 2 months than stock investors made in the last 3-4 years.
I never worry about missing a trade, because there’s always another one right around the corner. The next one IMO is coming in the metals sector and it is going to be bigger than any of us can possibly imagine. You might have missed the stock market trade but make sure you don’t miss the impending metals trade.
“I will say this though. Yes you may have missed making in money in stocks over the last year but if one can catch the bottom of this bear market then you will make more money in the first 2 months than stock investors made in the last 3-4 years. ”
says the fool that hasn’t made a buck in 2-3 years now, lmfao.
And dopey Al playing right along with him. A pair of cons.
Dumb question but is it going to be some catastrophic event that triggers the rally or just one day is gold and silver going to start to go up?
The fundamentals are already in place for the metals to rise. We just need to get the manipulation out of the way and the secular trend will resume naturally.
The signal I got on Tuesday is suggesting that the forces manipulating the gold market have now thrown in the dollar and given up on trying to get gold down to $1000.
We will see next week if gold is ready to resume its secular trend.
last tuesday 123.8 millions buy of GLD is your signal, right ?
Indications are that the paper gold market is a completely false ,manipulated market. Do you think we can have something like the “golden London pool” ?
Can we still see Bitcoin, or just the dust?
Bird Man @ November 30, 2013 at 8:01 am
“According to a new research study, refined sugar is far more addictive than cocaine — one of the most addictive and harmful substances currently known.
“An astonishing 94 percent of rats who were allowed to choose mutually-exclusively between sugar water and cocaine, chose sugar. Even rats who were addicted to cocaine quickly switched their preference to sugar, once it was offered as a choice. The rats were also more willing to work for sugar than for cocaine.
“The researchers speculate that the sweet receptors (two protein receptors located on the tongue), which evolved in ancestral times when the diet was very low in sugar, have not adapted to modern timesâ€™ high-sugar consumption.
“Therefore, the abnormally high stimulation of these receptors by our sugar-rich diets generates excessive reward signals in the brain, which have the potential to override normal self-control mechanisms, and thus lead to addiction.
“Additionally, their research found that thereâ€™s also a cross-tolerance and a cross-dependence between sugars and addictive drugs. As an example, animals with a long history of sugar consumption actually became tolerant (desensitized) to the analgesic effects of morphine.”
Holy Crow Irwin. That is pretty interesting. It explains something for me anyway. My sugar and coffee consumption just shot up and off the charts as soon as I quit smoking. Now I know why. Anyway, that was what led me to give the boot to the sugar because I realized it was just substituting and creating an unhealthy interferance. Plus all that extra sucrose in my blood was rattling my nerves and I could not sleep properly anymore. So it had to go (not sure I am keen on you comparing me with a pack of lab rats, by the way!).
OK, It is time to get some REAL economics commentary with some historic and scientific background. Sorry but Gary’s cycle psychobabble has proven to make no sense and being not scientific at all. Let’s use some real scientific micro and macroeconomic analysis to prove why HYPERINFLATION WILL NOT HAPPEN:
I find it interesting that many people seem to think that our nation is heading for major inflation at the very least â€“ and hyperinflation in all probabilities. They like to toss out other countries that have experienced severe hyperinflation, such as the Weimar Republic of Germany, Zimbabwe, and Argentina, to name but a few.
When asked why weâ€™re headed for hyperinflation the typical response is that the Fed, in conjunction with the US government, is printing trillions of dollars, which can only serve to dilute our â€śworthlessâ€ť currency to great magnitudes and cause prices to increase in a parabolic way. Weâ€™re also told that the US government will soon be spending the entire Federal budget just to pay interest on the outstanding debt.
These are all very interesting points, but they must be measured against historical reality. We have episodes of hyperinflationary periods that we can study, and make appropriate conclusions. What are the common characteristics of hyperinflation?
1) All countries that have suffered hyperinflation in modern history have had the problem of owing massive amounts of debt denominated in a currency which is not their own. Letâ€™s take the Weimar Republic of Germany as an example.
The German Deutschmark was a stable currency following World War I. There was just one slight â€śproblemâ€ť that they had â€“ they lost the war. The Treaty of Versailles specifically stated that Germany was to issue war reparations in the currencies of the Allies instead of their own. What did this mean?
National debt is a promise of the future labor of a countryâ€™s population. A nationâ€™s â€śmoneyâ€ť is the claims on a nationâ€™s debt, from the Federal level clear down to personal loans. What is so unique about this? What if I was to offer you $20 of my debt, and you claimed it by giving me a $20 bill in return. Further, letâ€™s assume that I refused to pay you back. What are you going to do, shoot me? No, you would promptly be arrested and thrown behind bars. Your only recourse, other than forgiveness of debt to a brother, is to appeal to the civil magistrate and hopefully have them require me to pay you back.
This is different than not paying back debt to the government. The government IS the civil magistrate. They have the ability to collect by the point of a sword. They can fine you, imprison you, garnish your wages, and generally make your life really, really miserable.
What happens when a nation now owes debt denominated in a foreign currency â€“ such as the position of the Weimar Republic? They can no longer bring the point of a sword to bear in collecting money (claims on the promise of a foreign countryâ€™s future labor). They canâ€™t arbitrarily increase the money supply of a different country and claim ownership of it.
2) Investors shun the debt of a country that has too much debt denominated in a foreign currency. Investors arenâ€™t stupid â€“ well, at least some of them. They are always looking for the best return on their money, given their particular level of risk aversion. A nationâ€™s treasury bonds are always appealing, since investors know that a country will bring the sword to bear in order to collect money from their population and pay it to the bearer of the bonds. Thatâ€™s why treasury bonds are considered â€śsaferâ€ť than non-government bonds.
Investors knew that the Weimar Republic had to pay off a very large amount of foreign currency denominated debt. This made the Deutschmark undesirable, since investors began chasing those other foreign securities.
What happens when a nation can no longer sell its debt? How does it raise the money to buy foreign currency in order to meet its debt obligations? It has only one choice. It debases the existing currency of the nation. It might do this by dictating that â€śall $10 bills are now worth $100â€ť. It may even reach the point where the original $10 becomes worth $10 million.
3) The population of a country will seek to spend its currency as fast as possible when experiencing hyperinflation. A $10 bill on one day might be able to purchase 20 times as many goods and/or services as that same $10 bill the following day. Currency becomes the â€śhot potatoâ€ť. Nobody trusts it, and nobody wants to hold onto it for more than an hour at a time.
4) Hyperinflation doesnâ€™t really solve the problem of paying back foreign denominated debt. The rapid increase in Germanyâ€™s money supply caused their currency to be greatly devalued against other currencies around the world. This means it now took even more German Deutschmarks to purchase (repay) a certain amount of war reparations.
What do we know about the currency of the United States?
1) All of the debt that the US owes is denominated in the US Dollar. Our nation owes no money denominated in a foreign currency. Therefore, the need to devalue our currency to the level of hyperinflation doesnâ€™t exist â€“ and wonâ€™t exist.
2) Investors are running to purchase US Treasury securities. We are typically seeing â€śbid-to-coverâ€ť ratios of 2.5 to 3.5 during Treasury auctions. This means there are 2 Â˝ to 3 Â˝ times as many bidders as there are Treasury securities available for purchase.
Treasury yields (interest rates) are dependent on the demand for a particular security. If the demand is very high then interest rates will drop â€“ because the seller does not need to tempt the buyers with as much future interest. If the demand is extremely low then interest rates will rise quickly. This is due to the seller needing to entice the buyers with a higher payout at security maturity.
3) The population of the US is hoarding US dollars right now â€“ as is much of the world. They are being treated as valuable holdings, instead of â€śhot potatoesâ€ť. Merchants are having a difficult time â€śencouragingâ€ť buyers to part with their dollars. Consumers are striving to pay down debt and build a little cash nest-egg if at all possible.
4) The US government has absolutely no power to devalue the US dollar directly. Its only ability is to issue new credit (Treasury securities) that is claims on the future labor of its people.
Our government is currently struggling to spend as much currency (received by selling its debt) as it possibly can, in an effort to mask the deflationary depression that is already upon our nation.
Think about it for a moment. The Federal government has run $1.6 TRILLION budget deficits each of the past two years. Our nationâ€™s annual GDP is stated to be around $14 trillion. This means that our government is falsely propping up the economy by more than 10% each year (approximately 11.4%). This is a level of deflation that compares quite equally with what was seen during the years of the Great Depression â€“ yet the populace doesnâ€™t understand this.
Hyperinflation is not around the corner. Hyperinflation is not even a distant concern. Instead, the masses are being incorrectly led to believe that this is our greatest cause for concern. It makes us hate our Federal government even more â€“ while the FACT that the international banks are the primary culprit goes largely unnoticed.
I have been a registered Republican for most of my adult life, and believe strongly that the sphere of the civil magistrate needs to be squarely centered on the fear of God. We have some good Christian men who are about to be elected on November 2nd. It seems that almost all of them seek to have a balanced budget Constitutional Amendment.
A debt-based economy needs a moderate amount of inflation each year just to survive. What if these well-meaning Republican get their wish and are able to reduce our nationâ€™s budget deficit to zero?
The â€śeverything is slowly getting betterâ€ť mask will be quickly removed from before our nationâ€™s eyes. We will see the deflationary depression released like a lion from its cage.
Our nation desperately needs to remove itself from debt-based money, and begin having the US Treasury issue our currency. This would be a giant step towards having a biblically-based currency that is centered on completed labor. This is what those seeking to heal our economy should be focused upon.
– See more at: http://www.newfamilyeconomics.com/featured/why-hyperinflation-will-not-happen/#sthash.zHcwX5qI.dpuf
Art, diamonds, musical instruments, collectibles in general: skyrocketing in price.
Emerging markets: bubbles around the world, in dollar terms.
Basic necessities in the US: ever more expensive.
Three empirical observations that go against your ‘scientific’ theory.
Seems to me just this simple: if they stop printing $, yes, deflationary depression. If they keep printing $, high- to hyper-inflation. But obviously, some assets can deflate in $, while others inflate. As some have put it, deflation in the things you have, inflation in the things you need.
I like your notion of a currency based on completed labor.
One more thought,
The notion of deflation, i.e. an increasing purchasing power of the US dollar in terms of valuable ‘stuff’ (not other currencies) just does not compute for me. What would be the basis for this? Our fiscal responsibility? Our waste on weapons and ‘health’ care and ineffective education?
How on earth are the people of the world going to be valuing the US dollar more and more in coming years, until we make a complete about-face?
FWIW the US has already hyperinflated it’s currency twice. So anyone thinking it can’t happen here only needs to look at history.
I would also point out that we already had a semi currency crisis in the dollar in 2008. The rapid loss of purchasing power spiked oil to $147 and the CRB to 470.
This collapsed an already weakened economy that was reeling from the real estate and credit bubbles imploding. The Fed trashed the dollar which was the straw that broke the camels back sending us into the worst recession since the Great Depression.
The “Great Depression” as you mentioned was a DEFLATIONARY depression that’s why the government decided to devalue the dollar in terms of gold. At that time we had a gold-standard. We do not have a gold standard anymore therefore the dollar cannot be devalued in terms of gold anymore.
The CRB? You must be confused. The CRB index value was at 250, 25 years ago and it is at 309 today. Does that look like hyperinflation to you? 23% increase in 25 years? Please compare that to the stock market (NASDAQ, Dow, S&P 500)
That is U.S. history and these are facts.
Gary, you will have to start substantiating your claims with real factual data otherwise is just wishful thinking.
Here are the facts. Ever since WWII every time the price of oil has spiked at least 100% in a year or less the economy has slipped into a recession.
From the beginning of 2006 to July 2007 oil spiked 200%. This was the straw that broke the camels back and sent the economy into the Great Recession.
Like I said the crisis always occurs where the excesses are. The excesses are in the currency markets, so that is where the next crisis is going going to appear.
BTW devaluing the dollar in the 30’s didn’t stop the depression. Unemployment stayed above 14% all the way into WWII. It wasn’t until two new industries plastics and electronics were discovered that the world came out of the depression after the war.
I didn’t say we had a hyperinflation. I said we had a semi crisis in the dollar in 2008. It spiked oil to $147 and the CRB to 480
OK, Bitcoin is hype, and gold/silver/miners are not, but you want $10,000 gold and $400 silver very soon. I suspect that those who hate Bitcoin now will end up with chasing later at a much higher level. The simple and inconvenient reasons that people hate Bitcoin are 1) they don’t own it and they are jealous, 2) they don’t understand it.
Make no mistake, there is a good reason why Bitcoin will keep outperforming, and greatly outperforming, PM.
Make no mistake, BC is driven purely by frenzied speculation and wishful thinking at this point. It acts NOTHING like money. May be someday it will, but that day is a long way off. It is impossible to assign even a “ballpark” fair value to it.
Those who think that gold is also too volatile are making the mistake of measuring it in dollars. When measured by purchasing power in the real economy, there has never been a more stable unit of account.
“When measured by purchasing power in the real economy, there has never been a more stable unit of account.”
Thank you Matthew. I agree 100%. That means we are experiencing DEFLATION. A lot of people do not get that.
It depends on your definition, Pibe. Neither the understated official figures nor those put out by Shadowstats shows a falling CPI or money supply. Then there’s this:
Commodities got ahead of themselves in 2008. Gold and silver got ahead of themselves in 2010-11. Now stocks are getting ahead of themselves. The pain in the metals is just the inverse of the excitement of two years ago. I think it’s mostly just market action.
Commodities will play catch up in the years straight ahead. As long as the Fed continues to manipulate interest rates, we can expect increased volatility in all asset classes. Deflation here, inflation there, everywhere there will be a “‘flation” in asset prices.
another Gary “Folks, this is THE BOTTOM” Savage, shot to hell
Gary “there isn’t a gold bottom I don’t like” Savage
and evidently the more divots in that bottom, the better,lol.
It’s looking like Kim Kardashian’s a**. fat-n-ugly.
Yes he sure is a bottom calling fool isn’t he? It wouldn’t be so bad if the guy had some technique for lessening the pain of a 2 yr “folks it’s only a(nother) 5% loss” every month or so moment, lol.
Listen to the interview again. The signal isn’t a day trade signal. This week is a good time to initiate a starter position. 10% seems reasonable. Based on today’s action I think the final low will probably come on or around the employment report.
You basically have 2 options here: Understanding what the markets are currently doing or go against the trend and â€śhoping that you are rightâ€ť. So far Mr. Savage has been going against the trend since 2011 and losing subscriber’s money by giving people pep talks about why staying in a downtrend is the right thing to do â€“please take a look at his current â€śpep talksâ€ť. Mr. Savage keeps predicting crisis, depressions, bottoms and hyperinflation that never materialize and go against what we know about U.S. history and basic economics.
“So far Mr. Savage has been going against the trend since 2011 and losing subscriberâ€™s money ………”
Say it isn’t so!
Good ole AL states that if there was any skullduggery he’d get to the bottom of it, and he hasn’t seen any!
lmao. I think these two cons are in it together pretty deep. Dumb and Dumber?
Is the excess in the currency markets or the government debt markets (esp the Treasury market inthe USA)? Or is that the same thing?
Also what about the stock market? I have another question on that one.