Gary Savage – Fri 6 Dec, 2013

Gary is cautiously optimistic

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Featuring:
Al KorelinCory FleckGary Savage

Comments:
  1. On December 6, 2013 at 9:12 am,
    james (the lesserrr) says:

    The stock market is no longer afraid of the taper. If this was a few months ago this good news would have spooked the stock market. Now the stock market is going up in spite of, and because of the good news.

    Gold on the other hand is succumbing to the reality that it is dead.
    Like a person who doesn’t know it yet and it trying to survive while he goes under for the last time the situation becomes very desperate and violent as he clings to life. You see a lot of wailing and thrashing, in vain

    This is the action you are seeing now as the last few remaining gold bulls desperately cling to this market, hence the violent upswings, only to be quickly reversed by the overwhelming tide.

    Eventually they give up and face the music.

    • On December 6, 2013 at 9:44 am,
      Eric Crane says:

      gold is dead? gold has held value for thousands of years — during which time every currency known to man (and entire civilizations!) have come and gone.

      in terms of more recent price action, perhaps take a look at 10+ year charts of gold and the S&P, and then decide.

      have a good weekend and a happy and healthy holiday season
      Eric

      • On December 6, 2013 at 10:54 am,
        Big Al says:

        As always, a great point Eric!

        • On December 6, 2013 at 12:55 pm,
          Silverbug Dave says:

          I’m kind of with Eric but we are stillin the uptide for the S&P and the downtide for gold. The volatillity in gold here might be hinting at some kind of a bottom because it is stepping a little bit sideways out of its recent steepish downtrend. However, it is still locked in to its downtrend on the point and figure chart. The volatility is showing that someone is coming in and putting a floor in here – but we have seen this before at higher prices!

    • On December 6, 2013 at 10:53 am,
      Big Al says:

      The question Jame is “when will people give up”?

      I would guess, not in the near future. We will certainly see!

  2. On December 6, 2013 at 9:28 am,
    Dai Uy says:

    Al and/or anyone: …….. revisiting my dumb question time……………………….

    Will there be a point in time when AG deviates from current and past history of tracking nearly identically to AU performance in terms in ups and down and thus breaking out on its own in a separate market ? I haven’t seen much discussion of this issue for a long time…………………..

    • On December 6, 2013 at 10:54 am,
      Big Al says:

      Count on it being part of the upcoming Weekend Show.

  3. On December 6, 2013 at 9:28 am,
    John Kruschke says:

    Trying to rationalize an irrational situation will do nothing but give you a bad headache.One can only sum it up to manipulation. Once you accept this fact,you can move on and accept it for what it is.The day will come when the music stops playing and there are no more chairs.

    • On December 6, 2013 at 10:56 am,
      Big Al says:

      Mr. Kruschke,

      I happen to agree with you.

  4. On December 6, 2013 at 9:30 am,
    Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

    Absolutely John.

    • On December 6, 2013 at 10:21 am,
      SD Marc says:

      Big DITTO

  5. On December 6, 2013 at 9:32 am,
    LGC says:

    James it is obvious that you are not a true believer. It doesn’t make sense that you follow this site and have that view of gold. Buck up and realize that goldis insurance at this time and will turn into a true asset. We are at the wish and whim of the paper market and cannot yet override it. We will !!!

    • On December 6, 2013 at 10:57 am,
      Big Al says:

      I have to say, LGC, that I am not convinced that James is not really a true believer in spite of his comments.

      I notice that he hasn’t sold any yet.

      • On December 6, 2013 at 12:35 pm,
        Mark says:

        Using “true believer” to describe ones view implies a certain fanaticism in the face of facts to the contrary. I was once a true believer until that way of thinking cost me much of my savings as it has Gary and a few others on this site. As long as the stock market climbs the wall of worry few will look to gold as a safety play. Gold will rule again, but the patient and wary will be rewarded, not “true believers.”

        • On December 6, 2013 at 4:25 pm,
          Gary says:

          Mark,
          The reason to focus on gold is to try and get in at the bottom of a bear market. A bear market bottom is the single greatest buying opportunity any of us ever get. Emotional retail traders are the ones that get caught at bull market tops thinking the trend will continue forever. They also get caught at intermediate tops for the same reason.

          One has to ask themselves is it wiser to keep pressing ones bet as the stock market stretches further and further above the mean (check out what has happened to bitcoin buyers over the last two days to see how well this strategy works). Or one can wait patiently and try to buy the bottom of a bear market.

          The profit potential in stocks might be 10-15% if we are lucky. The profit potential if one catches the bottom of the bear market in gold is many hundreds if not thousands of percent. And if you can get in at or close to the exact bottom the profit potential in the first 2-3 months can be 75-125%.

          IMO it’s worth waiting for that, and if it takes a couple of attempts to get the bottom so be it. The reward is worth it.

  6. On December 6, 2013 at 9:53 am,
    Eric Crane says:

    The latest myth on wall street is that the stock market (and more importantly, the economy) is ready to accept the taper. All the talking heads on CNBC say that higher rates now would be a sign that the economy is improving.

    No one admits that a variety of other possibilities exist. For example:
    1. a period of stagflation, in which the situation gets away from the control of the Fed and the rates go higher, even though the economy is weak. (I think the current debate about an increase in the minimum wage is symptomatic of this — if you should start to see wage inflation in response to the decline in living standards that has taken place over the course of the last 10+ years… increased cost of living with little wage growth).

    2. We know we had an artificial suppression of rates with Fed buying. As the Fed back away, even at the margin, why would you not experience a partial re-trace in rates, regardless of whether the economy was improving or not.

    My guess…
    Fed gets off a round or two of tapering. (Note: their balance sheet would still be expanding aggressively on a net basis. Dittto for the federal debt as you would continue to have 100s of billions of dollars of deficit spending).

    I believe that rates will advance higher and faster than the Fed (and markets) believe. When this happens, the housing market rolls over, consumer and business softens at the margin (as a result of higher borrowing costs). Federal Deficit increases as the interest on the national debt moves higher.

    As economic data shows weakness, the Fed borrows another page from Japan and unleashes the ‘mother of all QE’ programs. When this happens, gold and silver will finally print up side numbers to boggle the mind.

    • On December 6, 2013 at 11:00 am,
      Big Al says:

      I think that Ms. Yellen will perhaps taper a bit more than people think. She has to establish herself and a lot of folks think that the economy is ready for taper of sorts.

  7. On December 6, 2013 at 9:58 am,
    b says:

    Morris Hubert presentation on 321 gold is interesting. Guess we are real close to cost of production, but other than that he has a couple interesting points explained.

    I think maybe I will start jewlery making and classes to show others how. Only for people that have their own gold and silver of course. My figureing is I will find lots of customers around here. lol

    Gary, I recall you saying awhile back you were looking for 1261? before deploying cash?
    I dont know if we need this low to hold,If we get to below production cost its gotta bounce up or demand wont be met. Theoretically anyway, but geez, wouldnt anything costing less than production cost be a good buy?
    I see gold as bottom bouncing right now, surely only way to go from here is up?

    • On December 6, 2013 at 10:37 am,
      Dai Uy says:

      b:

      Have also been thinking about a new small business with low start up and capital and supply costs and potentially a large customer base and excellent profit margins

      I have absolutely no skills or experience as a tattoo artist but figure it can’t be too difficult to learn how to crudely inscribe 3 numbers on foreheads……………………

      • On December 6, 2013 at 10:56 am,
        Irwin says:
        • On December 6, 2013 at 11:54 am,
          b says:

          Obviously he was saying 999 fine, forget the “junk”.

      • On December 6, 2013 at 11:09 am,
        Big Al says:

        I would bet that those numbers are not 123

    • On December 6, 2013 at 10:57 am,
      Gary says:

      A move below production does not guarantee a bottom. Commodities can remain below production costs for a long time. The only thing that has to happen if gold drops below the cost of production is that poorly run businesses have to go out of business.

      • On December 6, 2013 at 11:51 am,
        b says:

        Geez Gary, thats a brite thought. lol
        Yes, I guess goldbugs gotta be ready for nothin happening for a long time.
        But there has to be a limit as to how long. China is buying alot and there has got to be a reason more than just dumping dollars. Maybe not tho I guess.

    • On December 6, 2013 at 11:08 am,
      Big Al says:

      I personally think, b, that the bouncing will go a bit higher.

      There is still China, remember!

  8. On December 6, 2013 at 9:58 am,
    ManAboutDallas says:

    @LGC : the “overriding” began today. Good grief! Two numbers both “cooked” until they were falling-off-the-bone DONE and gold buckles for about 2 minutes and then comes roaring back like Merrill’s Marauders! Helloooooo… ? If this had been two months ago or, heck, just one month ago, these two cooked numbers would have been a full spread of torpedoes into gold that would have had it down $100 – easily – in 5 minutes. Or LESS ! Didn’t happen this time. Hear that “bell”? It just rang. You know what to do.

    • On December 6, 2013 at 11:13 am,
      Dan, calgary says:

      Great point MAD. IMHO we are getting a pan bottom in the stocks and the PMs are gaining fundamental strength again….. I am in the silver camp because of the cross-over demand of monetary and commodity demand.

      • On December 6, 2013 at 11:31 am,
        Big Al says:

        I completely agree with you, Dan, about silver.

    • On December 6, 2013 at 11:18 am,
      Big Al says:

      My thoughts exactly, Mr. Dallas

      • On December 6, 2013 at 11:51 am,
        ManAboutDallas says:

        One last comment about today’s “cooked” numbers. They HAD to be cooked this hard to put the best possible “spin” in peoples’ minds during this, an ULTRA-SHORT Holiday Shopping Season, Thanksgiving coming this year on the LAST possible day it could come in November. Early reports from The Retail Front indicate Black Friday weekend was an absolute, slo-mo train wreck disaster. And it’s not likely to get better. Right after the two cooked numbers THIS headline came across my news feed :

        U.S. OCTOBER CONSUMER SPENDING RISES 0.3%, INCOMES FALL 0.1%

        Hellooooooooooo?? People are spending MORE while they’re making LESS ? There’s a word for this; no, wait, TWO words : insanity and insolvency.

  9. On December 6, 2013 at 10:24 am,
    Tom says:

    I guess you have to look at it through the eyes of algos

  10. On December 6, 2013 at 10:24 am,
    Tom says:

    I don’t think algos care about fundementals

  11. On December 6, 2013 at 10:31 am,
    james (the lesserrr) says:

    LGC – I am not a true believer…I have to differ…

    When I was a boy I had a sweatshirt that said “It doesn’t matter what you believe as long as your sincere.” with a picture of Linus from Peanuts.

    When I became a man I found out it does matter.

    There is truth and there is falsehood. The truth matters.

    Many people are going around right now trying to call a bottom in the gold market.
    Some people are swinging wildly trying to hit everything.

    There in one day, there out the next.
    They blame manipulation, they blame bullion banks, they blame sunspots.

    They are howling at the moon

    Many people on this site debate, deny or disparage

    They have all lost their heads.

    What did Kipling say?

    If you can keep your head when all about you
    Are losing theirs and blaming it on you…

    No I am a true believer, but I will not entertain falsehood or fancy.

    The gold market has been in a bear market for the better part of two years now; that is undeniable.
    We can all speculate why it is, and when and if it will end; but it is pointless.

    We can also be swayed by the doom and gloomers like KWN and others that say a gold price explosion is imminent, right at the door. An increase is coming.

    So is Christ.
    But he isn’t coming an early and he isn’t coming late. He is coming in due time. On his schedule.

    So do we try to hasten the day or do we just trust and wait, and believe.

    I’ve been in this gold market for fourteen years now riding every high, stomaching every correction.
    I’ve stayed the course.

    A few years ago I lost both my parents.
    As the executor and youngest son I had to sell their house and disperse the proceeds to my siblings, nephews and nieces.

    All they had left was their house, what they worked for all their lives.

    After I received my share I thought about what to do with the money.

    I could buy stocks, I could buy land, I could start a business, I could buy racehorses.

    Already being “all in” in gold I decided to do the right thing by my parents.

    In the April take down I bought more gold, and in the most recent take down I added more silver.
    Both those investments are in the red.

    Now I have about one half left of what my parents left me.

    I am sitting in cash waiting to send it in.

    To this day I still can’t thing of a better investment.

    I am waiting, but I need to wait a little longer.

    I believe I honored my parents by sticking to my guns and having the courage of my convictions to stay the course.

    I could have bought a race horse and lived out my dream.
    But it isn’t the time. Not yet. I must wait.

    Right now I believe the price of gold is being executed, no crucified is a better word.
    Like Christ, who they could find no fault in, gold is being slaughtered; the sacrificial lamb if you will.

    If it is a crucifixion I say lets get it over with already so we can enjoy the resurrection.

    But remember Christ didn’t rise for three days, those apostles had to wait three whole days, I’m sure it seemed like an eternity.

    So I wait, and I watch and I wonder.

    I’ve got the final vestige of my parent’s inheritance waiting to go all in when I get the signal and what will be will be…

    So please don’t tell me I’m not a true believer.

    • On December 6, 2013 at 11:28 am,
      Big Al says:

      Notice what I stated above.

      Great analogy, by the way!

  12. On December 6, 2013 at 11:21 am,
    Tony says:

    “Amen” Brother
    You forgot the Amen

    • On December 6, 2013 at 11:31 am,
      Big Al says:

      Okay, okay!

  13. On December 6, 2013 at 11:23 am,
    billy says:

    james (the lesserrr): Solid post. These Guys I find are dependable in their analysis and for years:
    In sum, there has been serious
    technical damage in Gold stock indices
    and individual stocks. However, the
    recent decline may well be the last
    before a medium-term tradable rally
    materializes. Investors should let the
    current decline exhaust itself but they
    should keep their fingers on the BUY
    button. The New Year could bring a
    major change in the sector.

  14. On December 6, 2013 at 11:35 am,
    Big Al says:

    Thanks Billy

  15. On December 6, 2013 at 11:59 am,
    Jack_Tripper says:

    Hilarious…..you guys still trying to “trade noise” as to consider 20 buks up er down as some indication of price direction – in an asset worth 1200 buks.

    Like snow on a t.v screen with no cable.

    Go Gary Go!

  16. On December 6, 2013 at 12:07 pm,
    billy says:

    Also they say a correction was due on the TSX. Happening now, and then another move up but the new year could bring bad things but we need to get everyone aboard before it can really roll over…….

  17. On December 6, 2013 at 2:38 pm,
    Dick Tracy says:

    I was really skeptical of Gary Savage, but I ‘m not anymore he seems to have a sixth sense for the market, which combined with the technical analysis on this site makes me say, ” well done Al. DT

    • On December 6, 2013 at 11:20 pm,
      ms says:

      Give it time, you will see what most others see in this douche

      • On December 7, 2013 at 4:11 am,
        57 corvette says:

        The man has been bang on perfect for months. G money rocks.if anyone can call a bottom in this bear market he can.

  18. On December 7, 2013 at 4:15 am,
    57 corvette says:

    G money called a bottom in stocks last week for the employment report Friday. My call options are up almost 50%. Get on board and make some money 🙂

    • On December 7, 2013 at 9:50 am,
      ms says:

      You have been warned

      • On December 7, 2013 at 2:44 pm,
        57 corvette says:

        Ms,
        Warning noted. In the meantime I’m going to go buy another corvette with my profits. Hell I could buy 3 corvettes 😉

  19. On December 7, 2013 at 1:56 pm,
    eagleeye says:

    I can’t understand how anyone can say that Gary has been “bang on”. He was bullish on gold all the way down and blaming manipulation for the failure of gold to go up as he felt it should. Now that gold has been crushed and probably close to a bottom, he wants to be in cash while he flip flops with his predictions for gold’s next move.

  20. On December 7, 2013 at 2:32 pm,
    Gary says:

    eagle,
    As has been pointed out many times in the past I recommended everyone exit all precious metals positions on Jan 24 2013. The only thing I recommended holding was a 10% position in 2015 LEAP’s on SLV as I thought the market would break the manipulation pretty quickly.

    Granted it lasted much longer than I expected, but we only had a 10% position so no serious damage was done. We exited those LEAP’s at the exact top of the recent intermediate rally. (I will re enter those funds as soon as I’m confident the bottom is in and make back the rest of our losses on that position)

    I’m trying to pick the bottom of a bear market. One has to be careful picking bear market bottoms. If one misses you can get caught in a big draw down.

    I think gold is forming a bottom right here, but it may take a couple of attempts to get in while at the same time trying to protect against another big drop if this turns out to be a bear market rally and another leg down is ahead.

    So before you make claims that you can’t back up you better check the facts.

    • On December 7, 2013 at 11:15 pm,
      ms says:

      One only needs to check your public blog for the ‘facts’

  21. On December 7, 2013 at 11:25 pm,
    Jackson says:

    ms is absolutely correct. Gary definitely didn’t recommend everyone exit all precious metals positions on Jan 24, 2013, since on Jan 27, 2013, he wrote, “I think we are all wondering when the miners are going to join the party as it certainly appears that gold and silver both have formed major yearly cycle bottoms.” Please take with a huge grain of salt anything Gary Savage has to say about precious metals prices.

    • On December 8, 2013 at 7:58 pm,
      Gary says:

      Jackson,
      Sorry but you aren’t even close. Here is the exact post from Jan. 24th with the time stamp.

      January 24 (portfolio change)
      Posted on January 24, 2013 by Gary
      I think I’ve had enough. For what ever reason liquidity from QE4 is being prevented from flowing into the metals for now. I

      don’t think it can last forever but it’s certainly been successful for the last two months. (I’m wondering if this has something to do with Germany repatriating

      their gold.)

      The miners are acting like gold is going to generate another left translated cycle. If that happens then it could be 4-6 weeks before another ICL.

      I”ll hold the LEAPS and there’s no sense selling the GDX calls, but everything else gets jettisoned until I see a rising intermediate cycle.

      The stock market is too overbought and in the timing band for a half cycle low so I’m not keen to jump on that bandwagon right now.

      I’ll just sit in cash except for the LEAPS until something convinces me the secular trend is ready to resume.

      Gary

  22. On December 8, 2013 at 10:32 am,
    Pibe50 says:

    Betting against what Gary Savage advices has been a very profitable strategy since 2011; maybe this time “is different” but I really doubt it. “True believers” will be burnt down once again by the market and Gary will come out with more excuses (i.e. manipulation and so on). I already submitted tons of proof why Gary Savage is totally unreliable but I guess AL is still thinking about taking it seriously.

  23. On December 8, 2013 at 8:12 pm,
    Gary says:

    Pibe,
    Lets see if that holds any water.

    In August when everyone was bearish, including you if I remember correctly, I said stocks would bottom and make new highs, maybe even moving to 1800.

    On June 28th I said I thought we had at least an intermediate degree bottom in the gold sector.

    On Sept. 3 rd I advised exiting the metals and going to cash.

    On the morning of Sept. 17th I said the FOMC meeting would be the trigger for gold to put in a daily cycle low and that it could rally $40-$50 dollars.

    I said the Fed minutes on Oct. 30th would generate an intermediate degree bottom in the dollar and that it would rally for 4-6 weeks and possibly test the 200 day moving average.

    Every one of those calls were right on the mark and not one other analyst agreed with me on any of them.

    You’re looking kind of foolish right about now.

    • On December 9, 2013 at 10:00 pm,
      Pibe50 says:

      “You’re looking kind of foolish right about now.” Sure man but at least I do not scam people; I would rather be a “foolish” and not a con man. Time will come when we (ex-subscribers) take you to court. Let’s see who is more “foolish”.

  24. On December 8, 2013 at 8:15 pm,
    Gary says:

    BTW I also told subs last week that stocks would finish their minor correction and bottom on the employment report.

  25. On December 8, 2013 at 8:43 pm,
    eagleeye says:

    Gary, are the comments of Toby Conner your words ?

  26. On December 9, 2013 at 3:41 am,
    Bruce says:

    Gary, regarding your latest –

    “Unfortunately for the vast majority of traders, emotions are much stronger than logic. Most people when they see a market that has gone up for five years automatically assume that it’s going to continue to go up. And because everyone else is getting rich and they don’t want to be left out, they jump on board too.

    In reality a market that has gone up for five years is all that much closer to a top and the upside potential is limited, not exponential. Unfortunately at market tops traders are unable to think logically and all they know is that the money is coming easy. Unfortunately when something is easy, it’s usually about over.”

    Gary – that was precisely you. Gold had been up 12 straight years (not just 5) and yet you were continually predicting that final blow off C-wave that would take gold up to 3,4, 5 or 10K. Gold was already up 700% over 12 years and you were looking for another 700%.

    And now your post if full of ever more chart predictions that will also be headed to your rather large pile of wrong predictions.

    Everyone is looking for THE bottom in gold here. Let me know when no one is watching, like back in 1999. An old expression comes to mind – “a watched pot never boils”

  27. On December 9, 2013 at 3:41 am,
    gary says:

    yes Toby is the pen name my partner and I use to publish the Gold Scents blog. I pay him a commission for every subscription that he brings in so we needed a different entry site so we could track his commissions.

  28. On December 9, 2013 at 3:44 am,
    gary says:

    Bruce,
    All big secular bull markets end in some kind of bubble phase so yes I will keep looking for it until it happens.

  29. On December 9, 2013 at 4:53 am,
    Bruce says:

    Gary, I agree that the bubble phase in PM’s has likely yet to arrive, however, ie, while the Jim Rogers & Mark Fabers were saying gold was up 12 years in a row & could rest for a few years, you were continually predicting another epic rise. That was obviously incorrect and precisely what you said this weekend was due to emotion and not logic.

    No one is perfect. No one.

  30. On December 9, 2013 at 6:12 am,
    Bruce says:

    on friday, someone bought 17,500 SLV Jan 2016 28 calls at the ask $1.01

  31. On December 10, 2013 at 7:19 am,
    eagleeye says:

    Hey Bruce, you sound like you have your finger on the pulse of the PM markets, Care to share an email address?