Kitco Radio – Mon 9 Dec, 2013

Gold, Bitcoins and the Conventional Markets

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Al KorelinCory FleckGary Savage

  1. On December 9, 2013 at 8:56 am,
    Gary says:

    The dollar crisis is in the very initial stage. It’s now forming lower intermediate lows. That almost always indicates that the larger three year cycle has topped. The three year cycle bottom is due late next year. That means there is a lot of time for the dollar to fall between now and then.

    Once the dollar index breaks down from the megaphone topping pattern it’s been in all year the problems will start to heat up quickly.$USD&p=D&yr=4&mn=6&dy=0&id=p35296704035&a=326968895&listNum=1

    • On December 9, 2013 at 10:06 am,
      Bird Man says:

      There is NOT a dollar crisis right now.

    • On December 9, 2013 at 12:33 pm,
      Silverbug Dave says:

      I remeber noticing this megaphone and thinking it was breaking down a couple of months ago but then we got a bit of a rally, so I thought the pattern had failed. However, the two little rallies were nothing much as your chart clearly shows! It is a lovely megaphone!
      What do you gus think to Robert McHugh’s description of the Dow index 23 year megaphone ‘jaws of death’ parrern or eveb the Dow:Gold ratio 85 year megaphone patterns? I am not sure actually if the Dow hasn’t broken out of its megaphone. If not, then it is right about at the top line and read to turn down. All fascinating stuff but can we make a dime on it somehow?

      • On December 9, 2013 at 12:41 pm,
        Silverbug Dave says:

        Bob McHuh was on Jay Taylor’s show here – it’s s direct link to the mp3 because the broadcast will disappear off of his broadcast page as new ones come on:

        • On December 9, 2013 at 12:43 pm,
          Silverbug Dave says:

          Bob McHugh (oh my typing is no good!): He wrte on Kitco here:

          I wonder if it’s too much doom and gloom though but it could also coincide with a move of Dow:Gold to 1:1 and then far below it if goldbugs are fully vindicated.

          • On December 9, 2013 at 12:58 pm,
            Silverbug Dave says:

            Maybe the dollar will have a crisis but the US is already producing 1 million barrels of light oil from each of the Baaken shale and the and Eagle Ford complex and rising, is it that likely?
            The dollar’s downtrend channel has been since the end of Bretton Woods in 1971 which coincided with the eak of oil production in the USA, to within about a year. I wonder if the two could be related. The sudden increase in US oil production should be dollar positive, perhaps for a few years or more, though it might not fully compensate for other sins!

        • On December 9, 2013 at 1:49 pm,
          franky says:

          good post tanks

          • On December 9, 2013 at 3:57 pm,
            Jerry(Gator)M says:

            Silverbug Dave,
            The Baaken shale has disappointed for the last three months. Too expensive and too short lived on individual wells. The studies now being published are the results from almost 6 months ago and do not look good. Several majors have already ceased fracking in the Baaken. There are a few companies like TPLM who have been successful but they have drilled straight wells and been lucky(or technologically smart) on the results.

        • On December 9, 2013 at 4:38 pm,
          Big Al says:

          Thanks Silverbug Dave

          • On December 9, 2013 at 4:39 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Thanks to you also, Jerry!

  2. On December 9, 2013 at 9:22 am,
    franky says:

    Day will hide and lai all the way ! what a world !

    • On December 9, 2013 at 4:40 pm,
      Big Al says:

      That is very interesting, franky!

  3. On December 9, 2013 at 11:48 am,
    Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

    As reported in today’s Financial Times Cryptolocker is a virus declaring itself as ‘ransomware’, whereby hackers encrypt computer data so it cannot be accessed until the hackers de-encrypt it upon receipt of payment (anything between $100-$200 or two bitcoins). Ransom attacks have gone ballistic over this past quarter, given how bitcoins are almost impossible to trace..

    • On December 9, 2013 at 4:40 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Did not know that. Thanks Reverend.

  4. On December 9, 2013 at 12:19 pm,
    Gary says:

    In 1999 and 2000 tech stocks were obviously in a bubble and companies had absurd valuations based on nothing more than how many eyeballs they attracted every day. The bubble hadn’t popped yet, but the problems were there, and it was only a matter of time.

    In 2005 there wasn’t a crisis in the housing market yet, although anyone with a little common sense knew it was coming.

    Greece wasn’t insolvent, until it was.

    The crisis is just beginning. I’m trying to warn people what is coming.

    These crises always occur where the excesses are at. We’ve had five years of massive global money printing. The excesses are in the currency markets. This is where the crisis is going to occur. Based on my cycles analysis, the timing band for this to achieve maximum pain is late next year.

    • On December 9, 2013 at 1:03 pm,
      Silverbug Dave says:

      There isn’t much mention of BitCoins on the interview despite its title. I think BotCoin is a DIY Federal Reserve for geeks. We all understand the 10 on a ten dollar buill and the 100 on a 100 dollar bill but BitCoin is basically opaque, more opeque than the Fed I would say by far.
      Bill Fleckenstein on KWN at the weekend describes BitCoin as a chain letter. He is not sanguine on its value.

      • On December 9, 2013 at 1:06 pm,
        Silverbug Dave says:

        Oops, sorry I didn’t listen to the end of the interview properly. It did get a mention and I agree with what you guys said.

      • On December 9, 2013 at 11:47 pm,
        Bird Man says:

        Sanguine……..we don’t hear that word used often anymore. Must bring it back.

    • On December 9, 2013 at 4:41 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Maybe not even that far away, Gary!

  5. On December 9, 2013 at 2:33 pm,
    b says:

    After china made their anouncment it dropped to 680 about, today I just checked and its 877, so, it doesnt seem to be collapseing.

    • On December 9, 2013 at 3:27 pm,
      Big Al says:

      No B, buy definitely off from recent highs!

  6. On December 9, 2013 at 3:13 pm,
    JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

    THE STOCK MARKET….is like a wet rubber band………….slippery and stretched……..

  7. On December 9, 2013 at 3:15 pm,
    b says:

    The Swiss Parliament is considering a postulate that asks for bitcoin to be treated as any other foreign currency. The goal of the postulate, introduced by representative Thomas Weibel, is to eliminate ambiguities and increase legal certainty related to bitcoin.


  8. On December 9, 2013 at 3:17 pm,
    JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

    bit the bubble………..coin the phrase………

    • On December 9, 2013 at 3:24 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Currently my opinion also, Jerry.

  9. On December 9, 2013 at 7:53 pm,
    Catfish says:

    Y’all oughtta stop focusing on the price of Bitcoin and give five minutes to its merit. Anyone intending to acquire bitcoins should do so with caution here, for the reasons mentioned (that the price has gone up so much); however…

    Anyone wishing to actually understand what they’re talking about ought to hold their nose, buy five dollars worth of bitcoins, and then send some of it to someone they know on the other side of the world (easy as email). Then tell me there’s nothing novel about it. (Try sending money to someone on the other side of town using the traditional banking system… Even if you share the same bank it’s bound to take two or three times longer.)

    You guys should consider bringing on someone that can explain Bitcoin instead of simply commenting on the price (no insult intended): Jon Matonis, Roger Ver, or maybe Jeffrey Tucker. I’d also be happy to chat.

    • On December 9, 2013 at 10:40 pm,
      b says:

      catfish. No insult intended, but I personaly have no use for it, zero,nada,zilch.
      Not because I dislike the concept and not because I didnt “mine” them at 8 cents, but because I simply have no use for it.
      I have no need to transfer funds, and if I did Im certain I could get funds to pretty much anywhere fast enough for pretty much any reason, I also have no need simply as no business where I live is demanding or even accepting bitcoin as far as I know.
      In Calgary Alberta Canada people pretty much use their plastic, Canadian currency I would assume.
      Now, for me, with no use for it, why should I go thru the hassle of aquireing it? The only reason I can possobly think of is someone else pays me more for it.
      For that reason, there are many options.
      Why should I bother with bitcoin?
      Seriously, why?

      • On December 10, 2013 at 12:54 am,
        Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

        catfish no insult intended either. But re my comment above hackers obviously feel that bitcoin gives them an open goal to kick at with their ransoms demands. Much as we may hate credit cards, any attempt to defraud them is made harder in terms of their traceability.

        • On December 10, 2013 at 8:38 am,
          b says:

          Hi Andrew, interesting to see if my question gets an answer. I guess it might be ok to own one in case currencies collapse? I dont know, at that point I think we would be in “barter mode”.

          You mention traceable, bitcoin is not anonymous at all, the whole “blockchain” is recorded. Anonyimity was supposed to be a big advantage to bitcoin, casey research (I believe) explained exactly how and why it is not anonymous.

          • On December 10, 2013 at 9:21 am,
            Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

            Thanks b, A

          • On December 10, 2013 at 9:31 pm,
            Catfish says:

            Bitcoin is not exactly anonymous, and no-one that knew what he was talking about ever claimed it was. That said, it’s a thousand times better than credit card, bank transfer, or any other electronic payment mechanism I know of, as far as privacy is concerned.

            Whether you think this matters or not, I take comfort in the fact that Visa, Bank of America, and God-knows-who-else need not know I donated money to, for example, name-your-favorite-liberty-oriented-organization… And if they so cared to find out, it would take an incredible effort and money to find out.

            And the best part is I can do this all for zero cost (or close to it), and in small/micro-payments (e.g., $1).

        • On December 10, 2013 at 9:26 pm,
          Catfish says:

          So what? Is it a strike against fiat, then, that the “ransomware” also allowed for paying via Ukash, MoneyPak, etc?

          If we’re to judge a currency by the number of crimes or malicious activities it enables, then the USD is far and away the breadwinner.

      • On December 10, 2013 at 9:21 pm,
        Catfish says:

        Perhaps you don’t have use for Bitcoin. That doesn’t make it any less novel, though. Consider, a lot of people thought they’d have no use for the World Wide Web.

        Speaking only to the credit-card aspect, you could save yourself about 3% per transaction by using Bitcoin instead (though that, admittedly, would rely on merchants to start accepting Bitcoin and stop subsidizing their card-swiping clients in favor of the ones that use cheaper payment mechanisms).

        • On December 11, 2013 at 9:36 am,
          b says:

          Catfish, nothing wrong with not giving money to visa. It might very well be a good money transfer system. I just have no use for that. As a currency…..well…….anything can be used as currency.

          You have a point about people not thinking they have a use for it. I know thats true, i was 1 of them.

          Here is a point for your argument, altho, I am not going to use them or make money from them and they really will have no affect on my life without a radical change in the way society lives together, the point? A univercity in Cyprus I believe accepts bitcoin as their students wouldnt stop asking to pay for their courses in bitcoin.

          I now say you guys are on to somthing, not because of your arguments but because thats what young people seem to be chooseing. And ultimatly, thats how it works, people chose gold so…gold it was etc

          I seem to be like Gary, I changed my mind. And we are probly both right. lol

  10. On December 9, 2013 at 9:05 pm,
    Tom says:

    Of course Bitcoin is going to be rejected by governments….Isn’t that the point of the bitcoin?

  11. On December 10, 2013 at 6:49 pm,
    ColdHardTruth says:

    Gary originally expected gold to re-test 1900 by the summer 2013 and it never happened. Even if he is correct about 2014, he was still wrong the first time around. Just sayin’