Views from Gary Savage – Tue 10 Dec, 2013

Looks strong today. What does Gary think?

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Featuring:
Al KorelinCory FleckGary Savage

Comments:
  1. On December 10, 2013 at 10:13 am,
    Eric Crane says:

    Interesting to me that with some analysts projecting that the taper will be sooner rather than later, that gold rallied anyway. A change is behavior worth paying attention to.

    Also, with the dollar weakness that Gary is tracking, perhaps it is once again time for gold — the “anti-dollar” — to shine once again.

    Something I wanted to mention about the charts on the mining stocks… as the readership will know, most of the stocks have been held captive by the declining moving averages and short-term rallies over the course of the spring and summer were abortive.

    This is very consistent with what I have seen during the past couple of decades, in watching how bottoms are carved out during previous bear markets in other sectors. I am thinking that the stars may be finally aligning for a intermediate term up trend, that would allow us to challenge the 200 day averages.

    Given how bad the declines have been, a move toward the 200 day would be very nice in percentage terms. FWIW, I think we finally have a decent change to see that over the course of the next couple of months.

    Have a good week, everybody.

    • On December 10, 2013 at 10:34 am,
      Big Al says:

      Mr. Crane,

      From a fundamental standpoint, I believe you could be correct.

    • On December 10, 2013 at 10:34 am,
      Bird Man says:

      I have a theory that the Fed will be encouraging more spec activity in commodities although how it might be acheived is unknown. Just talking up inflation is probably enough to do the trick. QEI did wonders in that regard but the effect died off pretty hard by the time later QE’s were announced. Money wants to go somewhere in any event. What better place than the beaten down resource sector that might finally join in the stock rally before the top is reached. If the PM sector rises then miners should take off like a rocket after being depressed fo so long. There is a lot of pent up desire to buy amongst a certain segment of the investment community. Maybe the time is finally here.

      • On December 10, 2013 at 10:37 am,
        Big Al says:

        I believe that you have a point, Bird.

        I do keep in mind; however, that the resource sector (specifically the stocks) is a miniscule market compared to the conventional ones.

        • On December 10, 2013 at 9:43 pm,
          ManAboutDallas says:

          Precisely because it’s so “miniscule” is why the rally will be so spectacular.

  2. On December 10, 2013 at 10:25 am,
    Dai Uy says:

    Al:

    It might be interesting to have your astute listeners predict for the record where AU and AG will be on January 1st, 2015.. My call would be AU at $1430 and AG at $23.50

    • On December 10, 2013 at 10:35 am,
      Bird Man says:

      Are there prizes Dai? I love a good contest.

      • On December 10, 2013 at 10:49 am,
        Dai Uy says:

        Bird:

        Indeed there is. The winner will receive a silver round which Al is currently holding in trust for me as a result of him being too generous in the point spread for his recent Husky football game victory………………..

        • On December 10, 2013 at 11:06 am,
          Bird Man says:

          Sweet. Thanks man.

        • On December 10, 2013 at 11:39 am,
          Big Al says:

          Actually, I thought that the bet was for drinks. But I will have a silver round delivered to your home if you will send the address to me at my g-mail account.

          Damn, why the the Dawgs slow down at the end!

          • On December 10, 2013 at 2:51 pm,
            Dai Uy says:

            Al: You’re right. It was for drinks. I’ll substitute a different round for the challenge.

          • On February 2, 2014 at 11:03 am,
            Noci says:

            If this is the dumbest thing you’ve ever seen on the inewertbs than you missed some stuff. I suggest going to google and starting over maybe with some LOL cats or something!?

    • On December 10, 2013 at 10:35 am,
      Big Al says:

      We may have a chance next year with our new coach. Most folks out here think that he is an upgrade.

      Okay on a serious note, good idea and we will put that together only instead of 1/1/15, I would like to see 6/1/14 and then 1115.

      Thanks for the idea.

      • On December 10, 2013 at 10:55 am,
        Dai Uy says:

        Al: Whatever you deem appropriate on the dates. Your call.
        Am assuming that you are referencing your new coach from Boise State, one of my favorite teams.

        • On December 10, 2013 at 11:40 am,
          Big Al says:

          Mine too.

          We will make an announcement shortly and put it up on the home page.

        • On December 10, 2013 at 12:05 pm,
          SD Marc says:

          Dai Uy,
          Al is still smarting from the victory the Aztecs secured over the Huskies in Basketball on Sunday. We slept through the first half…and woke up for the second half….go Azzzztecs!

          • On December 10, 2013 at 2:55 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Time to look for a new Coach.

            You know its funny Marc, but I know a former pretty well known U Dub basketball player who doesn’t and has not supported the team since Romar became the coach.

    • On December 10, 2013 at 10:45 am,
      b says:

      @1400 gold your seeing life as being pretty good. I like to think optimisticaly too. employment will be up, rents down,income up, and many of the existing debt issues would have been debt with. Maybe even a balanced budget?
      Maybe a taper works.

      • On December 10, 2013 at 11:41 am,
        Big Al says:

        Optimism never hurt anyone, b!

  3. On December 10, 2013 at 10:29 am,
    franky says:

    YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE BUY GOLD http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6mvICkfD2E4 !!!!!!!!

  4. On December 10, 2013 at 10:36 am,
    b says:

    The CME Daily Delivery Report showed that 206 gold and an eye-popping 1,089 silver contracts were posted for delivery within the Comex-approved depositories on Wednesday.

    In gold, the short/issuer was Canada’s Bank of Nova Scotia with 200 contracts. The only long/stopper of note was JPMorgan Chase in it’s in-house [proprietary] trading account. The number of contracts that they stood for delivery on was — 200 contracts!

    But the shocker was in silver, as sitting in the bushes as short/issuer was none other than the “Vampire Squid” themselves—Goldman Sachs—with 1,037 contracts, over 5 million ounces. Not surprisingly, the two biggest long/stoppers were the two biggest Comex silver shorts; JPMorgan Chase and Canada’s Bank of Nova Scotia. JPM stopped 737 contracts, and Canada’s Scotiabank stopped 209 contracts. ABM Amro was a distant third with 74 contracts stopped.

    My first reaction when I saw GS as the big short/issuer was — what client’s face did they rip off on that trade so JPMorgan could pick up this silver? Or maybe a “Friend of the Shorts” arranged this. Nothing would surprise me, dear reader, as the red flags are flying on this one.

    Yesterday’s Issuers and Stoppers Report is a must to view here, and to me it reeks of collusion.

    This is from Ed Steer, hope the link works for anyone interested.

  5. On December 10, 2013 at 10:38 am,
    Big Al says:

    Don’t see a link, b.

    • On December 10, 2013 at 10:53 am,
      b says:

      It didnt work, wish I could tell if the link was or wasnt going to work before I posted somthing.

      Yesterday’s Issuers and Stoppers Report is a must to view here, and to me it reeks of collusion.

      Was the “here” in that line.

      • On December 10, 2013 at 12:39 pm,
        Irwin says:

        b;
        Embedded links won’t work in the comments on this site … if they do, I wouldn’t know how to make them work.

        The easiest thing is just copy the URL in the address bar at the top of the website and paste it here.

  6. On December 10, 2013 at 10:40 am,
    Bird Man says:

    What the hell? Manipulation to the upside? You are killing me Gary.

    • On December 10, 2013 at 10:43 am,
      franky says:

      YES UP AND FALL MANIPULATION WAKE UP !!!!!!!!

    • On December 10, 2013 at 11:43 am,
      Big Al says:

      I didn’t hear that. I obviously missed something.

      • On December 10, 2013 at 12:58 pm,
        Bird Man says:

        Sure Al. Check for yourself. Halfway through the interview Gary said that he thinks “we will start to see manipulation to the upside now”. I could not stop laughing. Who the hell knows. Maybe he is right.

        • On December 10, 2013 at 2:57 pm,
          Big Al says:

          I will have to ask him about that. You know now that I think about it, I’ll bet he was referring to the conventional market.

          • On December 10, 2013 at 3:18 pm,
            Gary says:

            I was referring to the gold market. We saw a big buy order hit gold premarket today. The opposite of what has been happening over the last year.

            If the banks have flipped to the long side then it is now in their interest for gold to go up.

          • On December 11, 2013 at 1:36 am,
            Bird Man says:

            Come on guys. When is a trade just normal trading then? Is it only when the contracts shifting are small in size? Why does it bother everyone so much that more than a thousand contracts are shifting hands? Don’t large players get to participate? You have all heard of flight to security no doubt. If participants believe the stock market will crash they will move to gold or bonds for protection and in the process catch moves up there while equities take a nose dive. Gold is still a fear trade. Bank on that. There is also seasonal selling to contend with, positioning ahead of the crowd from a market bottom and short covering. All of these can happen fairly simultaneously and will bring fresh money into the trade while powering up prices. Although my contention is that gold will need to consoIidate and prove its bottom I have also considered a price rise may happen quite suddenly. It really depends on sentiments according to Fed actions, how stocks are perfroming and the technical outlook that is followed by so many including the programs that kick in at specified price points. We will want to watch this closely. I do not put stock in the manipulation theory though. That is a waste of energy because it cannot be proven and it does nothing to give you an advantage in the market. Simply put, the whole manipulation theory is mostly just an excuse for those who can’t seem to win at their trades and I think the concept stinks.

        • On December 10, 2013 at 3:16 pm,
          b says:

          of course it manipulation to the upside, actually they only have to let up on a little downward preasure.
          Garys thinking (I like it) is its manipulated down for maximum profit,then up for more maximum profit. And round and round it goes I guess. We just need to understand which way to place our bets.
          Its all rigged, everything, we in the “matrix” lol

          • On December 10, 2013 at 5:45 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Thanks for shedding a bit of light b!

          • On December 11, 2013 at 7:56 am,
            Gary says:

            Bird,
            We’ve had confirmation of manipulation in everything from currencies, bonds, to LIBOR, to oil and Aluminum, etc. Come on the system is set up so the big players can control markets as much as possible.

            If I remember right JPM didn’t have one loosing day last month. Do you really think that can happen in free markets?

            If everything else is being manipulated then why would anyone think that the metals would be any different? Heck it’s a much smaller market than most, and much easier to move.

          • On December 11, 2013 at 9:45 am,
            Bird Man says:

            What confirmation of manipulation in bonds?
            What confirmation of manipulation in currencies?
            You have Libor. That’s it. Please stop exaggerating.

    • On December 10, 2013 at 3:34 pm,
      franky says:
  7. On December 10, 2013 at 10:44 am,
    proud canuck says:

    nugt is 3x gold miners supposedly…but still an etf…when gold was at 1920 it was over 2000…Al I wonder if you think a return to 2000 would push its price near 2000 again…or even over 500? today it is up nearly $4 …above $31…thoughts from all are welcome…im likely to invest today

    • On December 10, 2013 at 11:01 am,
      franky says:

      NUGT i will buy some ! a good BUY proud canuck !

    • On December 10, 2013 at 11:24 am,
      Grady says:

      NUGT has price decay due due to the cost of rolling forward the options they use (I think) to get their 3x leverage.

      So no, when gold goes back to 1920, NUGT wont get back to the same level it was at last time.

      This is a trading vehicle, not a buy and hold. If you can manage to stay in it mostly only when it’s going your way, you can do very well. But tricky, and with the counterparty risks of options and etfs.

      • On December 10, 2013 at 11:44 am,
        Big Al says:

        HI Grady, franky and proud,

        I personally stay away from trading vehicles because I don’t have the time or the expertise.

      • On December 10, 2013 at 11:48 am,
        richard says:

        Grady, you’re correct. You have to be very careful with these kind of ETFs. If you’re early in your position and correct; the price decay can eat you up. You almost have to be perfect at timing to make significant dollars. And you’re quite correct; NUGT will never see 2000 again due to all the price adjustments over time.

  8. On December 10, 2013 at 11:29 am,
    billy says:

    The PMs usually move best in the late stages of bull market.
    Here’s a good piece on the fragility of planet earths financial system..
    http://danielamerman.com/articles/2013/QErealityC.html

    • On December 10, 2013 at 11:44 am,
      Big Al says:

      Thanks Billy,

      I will read it.

      • On December 10, 2013 at 12:08 pm,
        franky says:

        tank u i appreciate !

      • On December 10, 2013 at 12:42 pm,
        Bird Man says:

        I did just read it. Daniel’s piece is enough to cause anyone to start losing sleep. He makes some interesting comments about derivatives and why we need to be concerned (we are pretty much doomed….so get used to it!). I liked the part where he said we are facing an existential threat to the financial system because of how these have been structured. I have to agree with some of his ideas. The whole damn system could in fact come apart in days or hours. You would NEVER have time to escape, let alone take cash out of the bank. Food for thought. Be a boy scout and prepare now.

        • On December 10, 2013 at 1:02 pm,
          billy says:

          No S*it eh Bird!

          • On December 10, 2013 at 2:59 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Yep Billy, “No s*it eh Bird!”

          • On December 10, 2013 at 3:22 pm,
            b says:

            is that article enuff to explain why its all manipulated?
            I do believe there are those of us that have known the whole thing could come to a halt at any moment for some time now. Its why we keep a little cash at home for example.

          • On December 11, 2013 at 1:49 am,
            Bird Man says:

            Good call B. I am a strong proponent of the shoebox full of cash idea (don’t ask me where I keep it though!). NEVER put it is a safety deposit box though. Forget about collecting interest as well. Don’t loan it out to friends and don’t spend it unless it is an emergency. You should keep enough for 6 months barebones survival. In other words, don’t bother keeping any for rent or mortgage payments because that won’t be necessary in a financial collapse. Nobody else will be paying those bills either so don’t be the first to offer. You will need cash for food, medicines, fuel and other basics though. A few thousand bucks seems like plenty to me although each to his own. Don’t flash it around either. Keep in mind virtually nobody else will have any other than loose change because they all live by credit cards and debit most days. Before a week is out they will have zero remaining. Bank closures that render the financial system dead for days or weeks mean that the whole electronic cash dispensing system will come to a standstill until order is reinstated. So be a boyscout. Prepare before the SHTF.

        • On December 10, 2013 at 2:41 pm,
          Eric Crane says:

          I thought the article was spot on. Especially relative to the parade of people on CNBC today who argued that the crisis has past. The mainstream financial media simply doesn’t get that the structural problems are all still in place — you just bought yourself some time with all that additional debt and money printing.

          I like to say that it was the most expensive ‘time’ ever purchased. The question is, when does the bill come due.

          • On December 10, 2013 at 3:00 pm,
            Big Al says:

            I would say it will come due whenever the believers stop believing! (Think about that!)

  9. On December 10, 2013 at 11:39 am,
    proud canuck says:

    thank you grady…I will invest less than I otherwise would have

    • On December 10, 2013 at 12:09 pm,
      franky says:

      i tink still a good buy proud c !

  10. On December 10, 2013 at 11:53 am,
    billy says:

    Sure Big Al. Yes one wrong move and were a bucket of poop!!

  11. On December 10, 2013 at 12:35 pm,
    SILVERMAN says:

    NUGT GOOD! RIGHT FRANKY. I WENT THROUGH TWO REVERSE SPLITS ALREADY.
    BUY MORE AFTER EACH SPLIT. MISERY LOVES COMPANY. BUT …. BUT I SEE LIGHT DOWN AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL.

    • On December 10, 2013 at 12:43 pm,
      franky says:

      i now off the split i now note the best tanks SILVERMAN tanks

  12. On December 10, 2013 at 3:41 pm,
    Ricky lee says:

    Are you playing with an rachett tool? While
    Talking on your show!
    I have heard this for a while can’t figure out
    Who it is??
    Love your talk show!!!!
    Thanks. RL

    • On December 10, 2013 at 5:47 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Ricky Lee,

      Many thanks. No, no ratchet tool.

      We really appreciate your positive comments.

  13. On December 10, 2013 at 5:46 pm,
    Fred says:

    Kitco Metals Among Gold Traders Facing Quebec Tax Fraud Allegations

    http://business.financialpost.com/2013/12/09/kitco-metals-among-gold-tra
    MONTREAL — Revenu-Quebec is seeking prison sentences and fines totalling $750 million for Kitco Metals Inc. founder Bart Kitner and directors with several other gold trading firms following one of the biggest tax fraud investigations in provincial history.
    Quebec’s revenue department on Monday said it filed a total of 1,920 charges against Kitco and 11 other companies as well as their directors and an accountant implicated in an alleged fraud scheme linked to gold processing. Some 120 charges were filed against Kitco and another 120 against Mr. Kitner involving total fines of $454.6 million.
    “This is an investigation that’s lasted several years and the evidence is significant,” said Revenu-Quebec spokesman Stephane Dion. “It’s one of the largest investigations we’ve ever done.”

    • On December 11, 2013 at 2:02 am,
      Bird Man says:

      Holy Crow! That is an interesting story. Got to pay your pound of flesh to the authorities though. Some in the gold community still think they are in the wild West of currencies. Gold has become something of a target lately. Attempts are underway to monitor it much more closely. Almost nobody who buys and sells is really anonymouse anymore.

  14. On December 10, 2013 at 7:33 pm,
    Silverbug Dave says:

    In hindsight, Gary made a courageous call to $1030 with qualifications and caveats that would nullify it, then he now made courageous call for a reversal. I respect him for that because he is kind of sticking his neck out and calling the major trends almost before they start. I sure hope that he is right 100% on this current call.
    I certainly do admire his call for the bottom about a week ago, based on something that I would never have noticed, even if it had appeared on the news. He was really watching the markets like a hawk for clues! And we are getting the benefit of those keen eyes. Cheers Al and Gary.

  15. On December 10, 2013 at 7:39 pm,
    Dick Tracy says:

    Fred, this has been ongoing for a number of years, I don’t know what to make of it but I find it very disturbing. Who, Why or What, I just hope that it is not true, there has been a lot of corruption reaching deep into political life in Quebec and it is only starting to come out. I guess we always thought that as Canadians we were somehow more honest than others but now I don’t know. DT

  16. On December 10, 2013 at 8:04 pm,
    ColdHardTruth says:

    Posted this in yesterday’s comments by mistake…meant to post it here:

    Gary originally expected gold to re-test 1900 by the summer 2013 and it never happened. Even if he is correct about 2014, he was still wrong the first time around. Just sayin’

  17. On December 11, 2013 at 3:08 am,
    Bird Man says:

    In some of my recent posts I have been discussing the business cycle or alternatively the credit cycle and how I think these need to be kept in mind when looking at economic performance in the future. More specifically, I often refer to the very long run credit expansion that Western countries have engaged in and that have put us all at tremendous risk as sovereigns themselves are now painted into a debt corner so tight there is barely enough wriggle room remaining to escape anymore.

    So today I came across a really interesting chart put out by Deutsche Bank’s, Jim Reid. In an article available at ZeroHedge titled “The Topic No One is Dsicussing” he asks the question that is on nobodies mind. When will the current business cycle turn down?

    This should be of concern to all of us because in fact ALL business cycles come to an end with the result that a recession inevitably appears. It does not matter that the economy has been pumped full of liquidity either. The cycle itself cannot be defeated but rather only delayed until another date in the future.

    So it is just a matter of time before the next recession arrives and currently we are in the upper quarter of all past periods of expansion. In other words….we are overdue and should be anticipating a downturn to arrive in 2014. Keep this in mind when you are wondering what will happen next to employment numbers, GDP growth, the trade balance, interest rate changes and long run US debt growth.

    How stocks markets fare should also give the new bulls a little pause as we enter a natural and expected period of contraction. In Jim’s own words……..”One topic no-one is really discussing is a US recession in 2014. We should start to at least consider the risk given the maturity of this cycle. By the end of 2013 this expansion will be 54 months old which is longer than the average of 39 months (median 30) since data started to be compiled on US business cycles in 1854. The average in the 100 years since the Fed was formed in 1913 is 50 months (median 42). This cycle is now the seventh-longest of the 34 cycles since 1854″.

    The seventh longest since records were first kept in 1854. Got that? Prepare accordingly.

    Business Cycle Expansions Since 1854 ~~ Deutsche Bank — by Jim Reid
    Chart refers to the duration of each cycle expressed in months.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/12/Business%20Cycle%20Lengths.jpg

  18. On December 11, 2013 at 1:25 pm,
    Ron says:

    Forget nugt, dust has been the trade on every gold rally, watch euro and dollar, gold and miners one remaining huge sell off, Xmas gift this year ugaz at 12, now 23 :)