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Fair enough criticism, Doc. Where indeed is all that cash on the sidelines that we have been waiting five years to see show up. Is Deutche just feeling bullish or are they pumping to get a little excitement going before the declines or what? You would think we might have a little more evidence of a mountain of fresh buying on the horizon before now.
Bird, I’ve heard this over and over for the last 5 years. Look at the volume on the Dow; it continues to decline. I can’t believe that enough suckers will be born this time.
I thought low volume was a good time to manipulate? Just because its low volume doesnt mean the market goes down.
Not that it changes my thinking either way. 5-10% of investable income to physical gold. If and when I see a “bottom” I can believe in, I will add shares.
Been ruff for goldbugs, and the reward could be a drop in goldshare prices if the equity market tanks as people will be selling everything.
For me, morgan saying the market increases by 10% next year is a good thing, means my goldshares shouldnt be collapsing any time soon.
I kind of agree b
10% rise in the markets sounds about right to me. I would like to believe we have another year before trouble arrives but that is probably hoping for too much. I am not in the “market will meltdown” camp right now anyway.
B, trends, up or down, are confirmed by rising volume. It is bearish that the entire uptrend in stocks since 2009 has come on falling volume.
I agree with Armstrong that there is no bubble, but the market is overvalued and overbought. A correction is likely to start soon, but I don’t think a crash is very likely unless the market just keeps on going higher without first going through a decent decline.
A declining but not crashing stock market would be the best scenario for the miners. While stocks fell about 50% from 2000 to 2002, the HUI more than tripled. Then, from 2003 to 2007, the two sectors went up together.
When it comes to inflation/deflation, Martin could learn something from Marc Faber. He put it very simply: “There is only deflation in the brains of the brainless Fed governors. Because maybe they donâ€™t shop, maybe they donâ€™t eat, maybe they donâ€™t drive. I donâ€™t know.â€ť
I think the market is going to go down, just that maybe morgan is right and it doesnt come down until a years time passes. What to do with cash? lose purchasing power over the next year? or put it in the market and increase it a little?
Professor Laurence Kotlikoff & Chris Waltzek – December 11, 2013.
This fellow was on goldseek,com, he has started a petition to ask the government to start telling the truth to people about the american economic situation. Any americans on here might want to take a listen and maybe sign it.
Great commentary all 3 of you. Sound reasoning from Doc as always and I agree that the tapering won’t start until Janet Yellen takes the reigns in 2014, but she still could surprise with no change or even an “increase” in QE because she is so dovish and Japan, England, and Europe are printing like crazy. They may not even be able to taper. This could cause the increase of 10% to the general markets, but if the tapering starts, it will hurt both the conventional markets and commodities. Gold will fare a little better than the general markets, but if the dollar sinks and the bond market blows up, then Gold & Silver would have a sharp increase bull extension.
I kind of wondered about its logic also.
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Often markets will go up after good years. jp morgan deutchbank says the markets are going up, billions on the sidelines, why not going into markets? Its got to go somewhere or its just sitting, surely the people with billions understand currency loses purchasing power. Its gonna be put somewhere.
My guess, Morgan is right, just as gs said “slam dunk sell” they were right.
The more right morgan and gs are the more they show they are in control, the more comfortable people will feel.
From knowing the market is goin up 10% next year, how does that affect my gold? lol
I think morgan and gs should be believed.
No Bubble here.
NO noting here ! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f_tFKa2_YBQ !!!!!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nRqwjVNBWEo noting here !
thats funny Billy, seems armstrong is thinking the way I am.
funny yes . http://www.counterpunch.org/2013/11/19/fukushima-fallout-damaged-the-thyroids-of-california-babies/ funny
Ya me too b. Way too much bubble talk and Gold bottom talk. When there’s no one talking its probably here. He’s been smart enough to stay out of gold period..
LONG TIME B BILLY LONG TIME UP TO YOU BLA BLA BLA NO BUY GO TALK ADER TINKS ALL OK BYE HEPPY !!!!!!!!
Whats that in english?
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BILLY http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f_A77N5WKWM REAL ENGLISH ! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f_A77N5WKWM
Billy you need english real english rulers oooo sorry day rull you now !
Billy billy http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kui3__dnOxU&list=UU9xHDLLjog6uGaNc8TKwX9A all ok billy !!!!!!!
Yes, Martin seems to suggest as well that retail money needs to come in before we can call a bubble. Seems a fair enough argument. Fools rush in at the tops. He is also saying money is fleeing other risks, bad debts and government paper. Basically there is nowhere else to go and corporate revenues have nothing to do with purchasing decisions because people are getting capital appreciation in their stock. It is an appealing argument and I won’t say he is wrong. The institutionals and big funds don’t make money by sitting in cash. They are what….90 or 95% invested all the time. But aren’t we all wondering where the fresh money will come from if bearish sentiments are at a mere 15% now? I wonder how Deutche comes up with that 169 billion dollar figure of sideline cash. Is that mostly money sitting in savings or other low rate accounts? I suppose there is always Asian money that could drie up US stocks. Japanese investors especially could power things up nicely if they keep getting squashed at home by Abes policies. Another European debt crisis could see capital rushing to American equities and bonds. I only mean to say we can’t know the future with certainty and there is the potential for a lot of other money to show up depending on what happens elsewhere so I cannot rule out another year of a bull market even if it is really long in the tooth. Lets consider foreign views of an end to QE being seen as responsible and giving the perception of a US recovery some credence.
billy real ENGLISH WAAAA BILLY YOU SO NICE http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f_A77N5WKWM
Nothings changed in a 130 years franky…why sweat it now? U soo funnny
GO WALK THE DOG BILLY ! enjoy !!!!!!!!
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At the moment supply and demand, exchange rates between the quantity of fiat verses the quantity of gold or silver and the GSR has nothing to do with the price of the precious metals at this time. It is all about what financial institutions and the people that own and operate them are willing to allow. That means that the rights of owners and producers are effectively null and void when it comes to the price of their product or asset. This is why mining stocks are not a good investment and buying bullion to keep off the market is. One investment is ownership in a business that shall not be allowed to really prosper and the other is a long established form of money with little or no counterparty risk. This is why every smart person and country on the planet is scooping up gold and silver and taking delivery. It is the only way they can succeed in retaining capital or gaining capital. All paper burns, gold and silver does not.
Steven i agree ! a good post !
Please keep thnowirg these posts up they help tons.