Gary Savage – Thu 12 Dec, 2013

All we can say is, “Go Figure”

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Featuring:
Al KorelinCory FleckGary Savage

Comments:
  1. On December 12, 2013 at 9:03 am,
    Dai Uy says:

    Al:

    For what it may be worth, I agree with your strategy.

    • On December 12, 2013 at 9:47 am,
      John Chew says:

      gold has been captured as a means to foster interbank liquidity. Gold prices rise when the physical shortage asserts itself, because it is a fact of the market. However, gold falls when called on by the banking system to fill in the growing repo and collateral cracks. It is that simple, and attempts to divine other causes are typically ideologically loaded.

      • On December 12, 2013 at 4:43 pm,
        Silverbug Dave says:

        I don’t quite understand that mechanism…

    • On December 12, 2013 at 10:03 am,
      franky says:

      I’m not scared SISSYS BUY BUY BUY ! 100 % manipulation You can’t understand ! STOP LUKING TV ! STOP waves and moving average are JOKS ! Day play you the manipulators !

      • On December 12, 2013 at 2:40 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Not scared? I am!

      • On December 13, 2013 at 8:09 am,
        b says:

        just figured out what you said franky. yup ur right. but big money wont accumilate or they get treated like Hunt. Little money thinks PMs are toast. Keiser tries $500 silver. Didnt work.

  2. On December 12, 2013 at 9:09 am,
    Eric Crane says:

    The bottoming process is a frustrating one — prone to false breakouts.

    One possible silver lining (no pun intended)… I am noticing a bit of a divergence between the physical metals here and the mining stocks I track. They took an initial hit on the open and then many of them recovered intra-day (some up marginally and some close to unchanged).

    Over the course of the decline during this past year, on a $20/$30 move down in gold, the mining stocks would typically stay down and under-perform the metal to the downside. If you begin to see divergences in miners, that would be a great sign, as I expect them to lead the metal to the upside when the breakout is for real.

    Obviously, the market is not closed yet, so will have to judge by end-of-day action. I will update this post at end of day.

    • On December 12, 2013 at 2:39 pm,
      Eric Crane says:

      End of Day update…
      even though physical gold finished near the lows of the day, and down 2.50% or so, the average mining stock I own out-performed on the day (and finished well off the lows). Consistent with the action in XAU, HUI, and ETFs like GDX, GDXJ, and GLDX.

      It’s just one day, but if you see more of this behavior, it would be a very good sign. Very common when a sector is truly washed out and enough stock has finally been transferred from weak hands into stronger hands.

      For illustration, I spent the 90s working in stock brokerage firms and on trading desks. I remember there were times when the “book-to-bill” ratio was one of the most closely watched reports during the month and had a large impact on the semi-conductor stocks that were a focus of traders.

      In one instance, after a long run up, we got an incredibly good book-to-bill and the semiconductor shares went down. It turned out to be a wonderful signal regarding a significant trend change.

      Likewise, after a long decline, we got a terrible book to bill and the semi’s rallied. It was once again a great signal for a longer term change in trend.

      If you get into a mode where physical gold is still acting sloppy but you see the miners start to move higher, that is going to be a great signal.

      Have a good night.

      • On December 12, 2013 at 2:42 pm,
        Big Al says:

        I question gold looking sloppy and the miners starting to move. But, what the heck, I was wrong once before!

      • On December 12, 2013 at 3:21 pm,
        Matthew says:

        I agree with Eric. For weeks I have noticed a general lack of the usual downside leverage in many miners when gold has a bad day. At important lows, the miners tend to bottom first as investors seek leverage in anticipation of the new uptrend.

    • On December 12, 2013 at 2:40 pm,
      Big Al says:

      As of 2:40 pst, as you know, we are lower.

  3. On December 12, 2013 at 9:15 am,
    Dan, calgary says:

    AUN.V must redo their whole estimate and feasibility study for the Shafter mine due to overestimations of grades and resources.
    IMHO a good reason to boycott all stocks on the TSX.V. I have not owned AUN recently.

    • On December 12, 2013 at 9:29 am,
      Matthew says:

      I bet even most bulls have already boycotted the TSX-V. I avoid companies on a case-by-case basis.
      Tiny, illiquid, speculative companies will always be very risky.

      • On December 12, 2013 at 9:36 am,
        Dan, calgary says:

        I think that there are lots of good micro-caps still on the TSX big board. I own Scorpio and am looking at U308 as examples. I wont buy Silvercrest even though all looks good because it has not been able to graduate to the big board.

        • On December 12, 2013 at 9:52 am,
          Matthew says:

          When you say that Silvercrest has not been “able” to graduate to the big board, are saying that they have tried to and failed?
          I agree that there are plenty of good micro-caps on the big board, but I am not going to shun those that aren’t. Plenty of those big board listed companies have declined just as much as some of the worst venture listed ones.
          Scorpio is 40x larger than my smallest (nano-cap?) silver play.

          • On December 12, 2013 at 10:00 am,
            Dan, calgary says:

            I guess it is all perspective but I like Scorpio because their P/E ratio looks horrible and will be corrected upwards in time. I don’t think SVL has tried yet but that could be a testament to a patient management team and I will miss the eventual rise in price. Thanks for the responses Matthew.

        • On December 12, 2013 at 2:44 pm,
          Big Al says:

          I agree with the comment re: SLV below about the patient management team.

      • On December 12, 2013 at 9:49 am,
        Dan, calgary says:

        I have been trying to get a link to the AUN news story outside of my trade platform but can’t find it yet.

      • On December 12, 2013 at 2:43 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Risky, but if the fundamentals are really strong I usually will buy them.

    • On December 12, 2013 at 2:42 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Oh I wouldn’t go that far.

  4. On December 12, 2013 at 9:25 am,
    SD Marc says:

    This market makes perfect sense: “NON-SENSE”. There is something afoot – big time. What that ‘big-time” is – is anybody’s guess. I mentioned this on Al’s show, I think, last year, there are dozens and dozens of theories ad prognostications out there. All I know, is the PM’s is the place to be – when it all plays out is anyone’s guess. But, better to be in than out….what else can I say? Really, not much!

  5. On December 12, 2013 at 9:33 am,
    b says:

    Ed Steer has been saying he wouldnt touch goldstocks for their lack of protecting investers for a long while I believe.

    • On December 12, 2013 at 2:47 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Yeh, but I certainly don’t agree with that comment.

  6. On December 12, 2013 at 9:43 am,
    LGC says:

    Marc, you are following my beliefs exactly. Holding precious metals is the only sure bet we can make. When the rest of the people wake up to what has happened to their dollars, it will be too late to get into PM’s and they will be left out of the greatest bull markets ever. Waiting for our ship to come in is like a kid waiting for Christmas to arrrive. Holding thru the ups and downs in the market is the only correct choice we can make. Merry Christmas.

    • On December 12, 2013 at 9:47 am,
      Dan, calgary says:

      I sold a bunch of silver coins a couple months ago to start a small snow removal business in Calgary. I have already made back all of the money and still have four months of potential winter weather to go. Sometimes holding bullion will hold a person back also. IMHO (;-)

      • On December 12, 2013 at 2:47 pm,
        Big Al says:

        In retrospect that was probably a good move. But, I would never sell all our silver.

      • On February 2, 2014 at 8:18 pm,
        Boris says:

        You have shed a ray of sunnhise into the forum. Thanks!

      • On February 3, 2014 at 4:28 pm,
        Centralien says:

        That’s a posting full of instihg!

    • On December 12, 2013 at 11:54 am,
      Billy says:

      LGC: A lot of people think the dollar is doomed. Too many and that’s bad. There’s no real choice on where to go so the dollar stays. Gold just becomes another place to HIDE money from the governments when the SHTF. Deflation is abound…

      • On December 12, 2013 at 12:18 pm,
        Matthew says:

        “There is only deflation in the brains of the brainless Fed governors. Because maybe they don’t shop, maybe they don’t eat, maybe they don’t drive. I don’t know.” —Marc Faber
        Marc is right. Currency debasement doesn’t “fix” an economic contraction, but it does stop price deflation from showing up in terms of the currency that is being debased.

        • On December 12, 2013 at 2:35 pm,
          Billy says:

          And that’s why commodities collapsed right? Cause there lots of inflation…..
          Inflation rates are no where NEAR as high as they were in the 70s and other suggestive periods.

          • On December 12, 2013 at 2:49 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Of course I have to agree with your observations regarding interest rates in the 70’s.

          • On December 12, 2013 at 2:54 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Market action is cyclical and has little to do with inflation or deflation in the short term. In this context, two years is still short term. Oil, copper, and gold are still up 5 times in just over a decade.
            Note that after the October 2008 low, gold went up more than 160%. Now, since the March 2009 low, conventional stocks have gone up more than 160%. Selling strength in a hot sector in order to grab better values and lower risk in another sector is not deflation.

          • On December 12, 2013 at 2:58 pm,
            Matthew says:

            That is a vague comparison to the ’70s, by the way. Which part of the ’70s? Do you buy the current CPI numbers? When the Fed makes up for 80-90% of the bond market, do low interest rates really indicate that the market fears deflation?

          • On December 12, 2013 at 3:01 pm,
            Billy says:

            70s is a good comparison. But Matthew you have good points and the market is looking ahead a ways not behind. CPI is skewed as heck and interest rates sure aren’t normalized.

  7. On December 12, 2013 at 9:55 am,
    Bill says:
    • On December 12, 2013 at 2:50 pm,
      Big Al says:

      O my God!

  8. On December 12, 2013 at 9:59 am,
    b says:

    Sounds like a smart move Dan.

    • On December 12, 2013 at 10:01 am,
      Dan, calgary says:

      You know that the snow has been falling in Cowtown too (:-)

      • On December 12, 2013 at 10:13 am,
        Irwin says:
        • On December 12, 2013 at 10:20 am,
          Dan, calgary says:

          Haha! Ca-ching$ for guys like me. I am abnormal and can work in the sh!t and have the nicer weather off to heal up.

        • On December 12, 2013 at 2:51 pm,
          Big Al says:

          Probably not Irwin, but like I said I was wrong once before!

  9. On December 12, 2013 at 10:10 am,
    Irwin says:

    Referring to Toronto Venture Exchange, Ned Goodman said, “It is fixable; I’ll make a prediction – it will be fixed within the next three months”.

    It has now been three months, and the only thing I’ve heard recently from Mr Goodman is that he has joined the board of directors of Barrick Gold.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kWa3c9kxYz8

  10. On December 12, 2013 at 10:28 am,
    John Kruschke says:

    Technically the spot price of gold is in a long term uptrend.This seems contrarian as the price has fallen over 700 in a relatively short amount of time.
    Max pain felt by the holders is a good thing.
    There is a need for consolidation at these lower levels.

    • On December 12, 2013 at 2:52 pm,
      Big Al says:

      John K, of course that is an interesting point!

  11. On December 12, 2013 at 10:34 am,
    Mark says:

    I’ve been reading what Martin Armstrong has been predicting for the economy and gold, and so far he’s been a lot more accurate than anyone on this show, especially Gary, who’s not exactly the brightest bulb when it comes to the metals. Good luck with those silver leaps Gary. They are going to be a losing bet again.

    Martin has a little problem with sentence structure, and he leaves out words on occasion, but you’ll get the gist.

    Here’s Martin on gold:

    Gold has made a sharp drop today as it still winds its way down. The concern that reaching a budget deal will also the Federal Reserve to reduce its bond buying is on point. The budget agreement is another factor that goes to the heart of the gold propaganda machine that we would be facing hyperinflation so buy gold. The idea that the Fed stimulus is even remotely inflationary is absurd when there is over $2 trillion in excess reserves at the Fed because the banks are not lending. The banks have been dumping their crap on the Fed but they have been trading with the money parking in excess reserves while not lending anything out. Sorry – but you just have to look at ALL the facts, not just the so-called buying of $85 billion per month. Where is that money actually going? Is it doing anything but increases the cash banks trade with? Gold is headed lower. There is no dispute on that one.

    • On December 12, 2013 at 11:01 am,
      Eric Crane says:

      no need for the personal attack on Gary. He is kind enough to share his opinion on this site gratis.

      • On December 12, 2013 at 11:11 am,
        Mark says:

        Gary has an amazing wit… of a nit. Is that better Eric?

        • On December 12, 2013 at 11:12 am,
          Mark says:

          By the way, a free opinion from Gary can cost you a lot.

          • On December 12, 2013 at 11:15 am,
            Eric Crane says:

            What I am suggesting is that whether you agree or disagree with a forum participant, you can still be civil. You can still choose to be a gentleman.

          • On December 12, 2013 at 11:34 am,
            Grady says:

            As charming as Armstrong himself.

          • On December 12, 2013 at 11:53 am,
            dw jones says:

            “a free opinion from gary can cost you a lot”! a free opinion should cost you nothing. this is not an investment site (giving tips) this is a site for knowledgeable opinions given for your perusal & then you do your due diligence. if you take all tips & go out & buy stocks w/o research then maybe you are the nitwit! nobody can predict an unpredictable market that is manipulated from the shadows whether it be the fed, china,central banks? this is a no rules (at least nobody follows the rules) game. if you don’t want to get burnt “sit on hands”!!!

      • On December 12, 2013 at 11:18 am,
        Dai Uy says:

        Eric C:
        I agree. We can all disagree and we often do without being disagreeable.

        • On December 12, 2013 at 2:54 pm,
          Big Al says:

          Dai Uy; dwl Grady; and, Mr. Crane,

          Thank you for your comments. Anger is really a wasteful emotion. If, in fact, Mark is expressing anger.

  12. On December 12, 2013 at 10:44 am,
    Mark says:

    By the way, Martin does say that we are still in a bull market when it comes to gold. He thinks the correction might take gold to around 900-1000, but after that, maybe in a year or two, it will start moving back up to mania levels. I happen to think governments, including ours, will start wars to divert attention from their failures, and gold will go up sooner. What I do know, however, is that most of the reasons gold bugs have for assuming why gold rises and falls are being shown wrong.

    • On December 12, 2013 at 11:14 am,
      richard says:

      Mark; good to hear from you. Yes, gold is still in a bull market but based on the move down, it’ll take awhile to repair the damage. Most don’t understand this point. The technicals tell me we’ll bounce here again but as we move into 2014 is when the odds increase that we have that final washout.

  13. On December 12, 2013 at 11:26 am,
    b says:

    So, we go back to “gold wont go much lower than $1000” I always figured thats when huge chinese buyiung would really start, but supposedly they been buying huge amounts for awhile, maybe its relitive, 100-150 tons a month is small when you have 3 trillion dollars? to dump.
    Looking at a daily chart it sure as heck looks like its going down since nov 10/12.
    Weekly it looks like there is a little support right here at 1227.
    monthly looks like the next support is about 985 after that about 650 then 400. Just me but thats what it looks like, i wonder what could stop its fall and turn it around?

    • On December 12, 2013 at 12:06 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Relative value is what will turn the gold market. The Dow/S&P has gone up more than 100% against gold in just two years. Oil also went up 100% against gold in the same period. Gold is on sale here. It could get even cheaper, but the tide is already turning. Don’t think for a minute that the smart money is not rotating out of stocks and into gold and gold stocks.

      • On December 12, 2013 at 12:14 pm,
        Billy says:

        I second you mark. Not much intelligent life here. No real stand. Just second by second whimsical calls. If you want real info and analysis its not free. Free is usually expensive…

        • On December 12, 2013 at 12:24 pm,
          Matthew says:

          Free is free. Dumb actions are expensive. Paying for expense analysis does not guarantee good advice. I went against expensive advice in 2008 and was very glad I did.

          • On December 12, 2013 at 2:21 pm,
            Billy says:

            Didn’t say you have to pay big bucks for for for good advice. ” If you want real info and analysis its not free.” and that’s a good rule of thumb. The supper wealthy aren’t hanging around this site…

          • On December 12, 2013 at 2:59 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Thanks Matthew!

          • On December 12, 2013 at 3:03 pm,
            Matthew says:

            The “super wealthy” is not the same as the “connected” wealthy. Some would do very well to hang out around this site. The majority are as clueless as anyone when it comes to the markets.

        • On December 12, 2013 at 2:58 pm,
          Big Al says:

          So I gotta ask you Billy, why are you a frequent visitor? If I agree with you, I certainly would not waste my time!

    • On December 12, 2013 at 2:56 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Don’t you find it interesting though, b, that we have not seen the predicted drop to sub $1000 levels though!

  14. On December 12, 2013 at 11:43 am,
    James (the lesser) says:

    Why did today’s gold action surprise anyone?

    This is how BEAR markets behave.

    It goes up one day to get everyone excited, only to give it all back plus the next.

    The gold market has been completely broken.

    I said gold is being executed and we need to finally pull the plug.

    Until we get that $100 to $200 sell off gold is going nowhere

    And then even when we get that it will take a few years to heal.

    Most analysts expect gold to average in 2014 basically where we are at now, so 2014 will be another waste.

    Don’t shoot the messenger, just trying to live in realville.

    Time to focus our energy elsewhere…

    • On December 12, 2013 at 12:07 pm,
      Matthew says:

      I am much more likely to laugh at the message than to shoot the messenger.

      • On December 12, 2013 at 12:21 pm,
        Mark says:

        So right!

    • On December 12, 2013 at 12:55 pm,
      Billy says:

      This is what I like to see….More bad news and calls = 🙂

      • On December 12, 2013 at 3:01 pm,
        Big Al says:

        I gotta ask you again man, why are you wasting your time. If you really believe what you are saying I would certainly have to question your intelligence.

        • On December 12, 2013 at 3:06 pm,
          Billy says:

          LOL. I’m a contrarian AL. I’d like to know what the percentage of people reading your site or any other for that fact owned the PMs 1999-2000??
          I did well. The more Bears the better but some won’t give up!?

          • On December 12, 2013 at 5:45 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Fair enough, Billy

    • On December 12, 2013 at 3:00 pm,
      Big Al says:

      And “Realville” is the best place to be The Greater!

  15. On December 12, 2013 at 11:59 am,
    Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:
    • On December 12, 2013 at 12:21 pm,
      Billy says:

      Ive read KWN for years for entertainment!! Every week BOOM WE ARE GOING TO THE MOON. This bullshit does more damage to a market than anything. They did this with the NIKKEI for decades. Telling everyone the decline is over. As long as the hopefuls hang on the worse its going to get…They are the most sensational pile of crap reporting Ive ever seen. If you want to get killed follow KWN!! THATS A FACT.
      Martin Arm has more brains in his little toe. So I wish everyone would sell so we can get this thing over with!

      • On December 12, 2013 at 12:38 pm,
        Matthew says:

        The money that came in in 2011 is mostly gone. If there is to any substantial new selling, it is going to come from shaking out new money that has attempted to call the bottom.
        I’m sure a few stops were tripped when gold took out this week’s low today. The low for silver this week has held so far —to the penny.

      • On December 12, 2013 at 3:02 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Now common Billy, let’s not show our lack of class by swearing!

      • On December 13, 2013 at 12:37 am,
        Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

        Point taken Billy. I’ve only dabbled in KWN recently and the endless unbounded optimism could well prove wearisome before long.

      • On December 13, 2013 at 1:34 am,
        Heidi says:

        What Billy said is so true .. all of it ! Stay away from that site – KWN . Martin Armstrong appeared there ONCE – they didn’t like what he said ( gold to go lower ) and they NEVER asked him again to be interviewed . Another site like that is US Watchdog…Greg Hunter .
        I was booted off that site because I spoke about Martin Armstrong and what he has been saying about gold . I’ve learned so much during this down turn – it’s worth $$$$.
        Eric Sprott and Sinclair were regular guest on that site also – look where Eric Sprott is now. Boy, did he learned his lesson or what ?

        • On December 13, 2013 at 9:41 am,
          Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

          Thanks Heidi.

    • On December 12, 2013 at 12:45 pm,
      Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:
      • On December 12, 2013 at 3:03 pm,
        Big Al says:

        A good friend Reverend. We do, at time have different opinions, but he is no hypocrite.

  16. On December 12, 2013 at 12:19 pm,
    b says:

    I listened to an interview the other day, (sry forget who and where) the discussion was etf’s. When the Sprott funds were mentioned they used the word integrity.
    The etf’s were not spoken of highly.
    We have heard of other eft’s being raided to supply the east?
    I just wonder if people have chosen cef.a over the others, so what little money there is is going there. Thus their inflows being greater than outflows.
    Not that it matters, but that could be a clue as to what a person might want to own for when PMs turn around. If Sprott has the best reputation……
    Still wish he would look into that 170,000 tons tho course its existance really couldnt be good news for him, so why would he I guess.

    • On December 12, 2013 at 12:28 pm,
      Matthew says:

      That was Ben Davies with Jan Skoyles.
      http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1386786981.php

      • On December 12, 2013 at 12:48 pm,
        Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

        As Ben Taylor says Matthew. Gold is to resume its market price in 2014, going higher – ‘much higher than people think and probably will catch most people unawares’. A

        • On December 12, 2013 at 12:49 pm,
          Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

          Correction Ben DAVIES.

      • On December 12, 2013 at 1:12 pm,
        b says:

        Thx Mat, I listen to so many and read so many I forget which,where i got info from sometimes.

  17. On December 12, 2013 at 12:31 pm,
    Mark says:

    I curse the day I was ever a subscriber to Gary. Since I cancelled his subscription. I’ve actually made money while people reading Gary’s failed cycle logic have been losing. Gary hasn’t been on the right side of this market for a long time now. I was sucked in by Gary’s excitement, and he was wrong more often than right. And he’s still pushing the same old message of manipulation right now when throughout the time I was a subscriber he denied manipulation in the gold market. It’s now an excuse, and that is pathetic. Banks are using their excess reserves to make killing in the stock market which may rise to heights most people will have a difficult time comprehending.

    • On December 12, 2013 at 12:52 pm,
      Mike says:

      You and me both. The only good thing that came of being a Gary sub was I found Poly’s blog

    • On December 12, 2013 at 12:55 pm,
      Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

      Mark, move on! There have been ‘experts’ in the past whom I could have cheerfully killed (metaphorically of course). Pick yourself up, dust yourself down and start…..You know the routine. I’ve had to do it more than once. Learn from those whom you see as blind guides! We all grow stronger as a result! Best, Andrew

      • On December 12, 2013 at 1:37 pm,
        Matthew says:

        You have the right attitude, Andrew. The best education can be very expensive. Too much faith in any single opinion can be costly. Refusing to accept responsibility for one’s actions can be deadly.

        • On December 12, 2013 at 2:30 pm,
          Mark says:

          I wholeheartedly agree! The school of hard knocks has left me bruised and wary, but not dead.

          • On December 12, 2013 at 3:06 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Shows you are a strong guy, Mark!

        • On December 12, 2013 at 3:06 pm,
          Big Al says:

          Absolutely Matthew, never (let me repeat) never just listen to one source!

      • On December 12, 2013 at 3:05 pm,
        Big Al says:

        As they say Reverend, “Shake the dust from your sandals”!

  18. On December 12, 2013 at 12:51 pm,
    Mike says:

    its a gap fill/backtest/shake out you moron. it happens at the beginning of almost every DC

  19. On December 12, 2013 at 12:57 pm,
    Heidi says:

    I’m saying it again :
    Doesn’t anybody read Martin Armstrong ? Gold to $ 1000 or even lower .
    The low is not expected until late Jan. 2014 or the 2nd quarter in 2014 .
    Your excitement on Dec. 2013 – THE BOTTOM IS IN – was not working . Hui hit 192 already and it looks like the 2008 low might show up .
    There is NO manipulation – just market reactions . If there is no buyer – gold falls .
    it sounds like Gary is one of those people Martin A. writes about ….they say buy all the way down . And when the low really comes you will be BROKE and miss the next up-leg ( or make very little profit ) in gold into 2017 – gold to $ 3500- $ 5000 .

    • On December 12, 2013 at 1:40 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Faith in Martin is in a bubble. He is worth reading, but unquestioning trust is not warranted.

      • On December 12, 2013 at 2:24 pm,
        Mark says:

        Unquestioning trust in anyone but God is obviously stupid. Martin hasn’t always been right; it’s just that his analysis on the markets and economies of the world seems at least to be globally integrated, whereas Gary seems to be unaware of how other countries’ economies and currencies affect our economy. If wealth is seeking a return, it’s going to be in stocks for the time being, not gold. When that will change is anybody’s guess.

        • On December 12, 2013 at 3:09 pm,
          Big Al says:

          Absolutely correct, in my opinion about trust in God. Thanks Mark!

        • On December 12, 2013 at 4:57 pm,
          Heidi says:

          Oh boy – but excuse me is dear god helping you with your investments ?
          You just pry and the gold market turns up because you prayed ?
          Investments are investments and leave religion out of it . That’s how wars were started – see history .

          • On December 12, 2013 at 5:29 pm,
            Mark says:

            What a bizarre response to my claiming a trust in God. You have a problem seeing things in context. I was responding to the notion of unquestioning trust. Calm down, and take your Xanax and tequila. I’ll read my Bible for comfort, if that’s all right with you.

          • On December 12, 2013 at 5:47 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Did you mean pry or pray?

            I do get your point; however, and I don’t think that God has time to help me with my investments. That is why He gave me free will!

          • On December 12, 2013 at 7:11 pm,
            b says:

            Just noticed Al sayin “god doesnt have time for investments”
            Anyone know the Edgar Casey story? Edgar Casey was a Christian sunday school teacher, photographer by trade/proffesion. He had a bit of a “talent” sort of a private line, a bit of a gift, anyway, when he got talked into useing his gift for investments/financial profit, he abruptly lost the ability of his gift.

      • On December 12, 2013 at 2:40 pm,
        Matthew says:

        In 2009, Martin said “We should see a temporary high in 2010-2011 with a retest of support perhaps into 2012-13 with a rally into 2016.”– He wrote this while still in prison and said gold would be $5,000+ in 2016. Now he has pushed the low and the high out a year and has lowered his target from $5k+ to $3.5k–$5k. Based on the precision of his cycle work, I have to wonder why 2016 was the target in 2009 and when he first published the gold cycle in 1979, but not now. In my view, he is keeping a lot of followers out of the market while it forms a bottom. This will be very good for the health of the bull market since many will be left behind.

        • On December 12, 2013 at 5:18 pm,
          Heidi says:

          You said it he wrote ” a temporary high in2010/2011 “‘ …that’s what we had gold at $ 1900 – that WAS a temporary high …” with retest of support ……well ? gold is still looking for the real support and it takes just longer than orig. thought . Yes, it is delayed by a yr. or more . Do you know all the trouble that showed up in the meantime ?
          Most people think gold goes only in the USA – no , it’s worldwide. No, he has $ 5k for 2017 …still the same . He is keeping people out of gold right now ? Yes, if they take his advise because he is expecting gold at $ 1050- $ 950. Would you rather buy now ? Why not ignore him and do your own stuff ?

          • On December 12, 2013 at 5:49 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Okay I will continue to do that and then I have no one else to blame.

            How did Mr. Armstrong end up in prison by the way?

          • On December 12, 2013 at 6:01 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Yes, would rather buy now, but I am buying miners (and some silver), not gold. I always have done my own stuff.
            I still think it is odd that 2016 is the date his gold cycle pointed to for 20 years; then after being released from jail his cycle has suddenly changed. Cycles don’t care about “all the trouble that showed up in the meantime.” As Charles Nenner says, technicals ARE fundamentals.
            As for the price target, in ’09 Martin said $5,000+(note the plus sign). That is different than the $3,500–$5,000 from your first post. Perhaps I am too detailed, but the difference is there.

    • On December 12, 2013 at 2:15 pm,
      richard says:

      Heidi; good points. I mentioned the breakdown recently of the HUI. Also, I’ve been mentioning ad nauseum about the important role of the 50 week MA which will get close to intersecting the PM pricing sometime in the end of the 1st quarter of 2014—–with the caveat that the PMs will still be trading in the range we have right now. No one knows with any amount of certainty about the low of gold in this current move down. Only in retrospect will be know.

    • On December 12, 2013 at 3:08 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Mr. Armstrong has give himself up to three and one half months to be correct with his prediction. Let’s see. I am not being anything here but questioning.

      I don’t see that happening but, as I stated above, I was wrong once before!

      • On December 13, 2013 at 2:14 am,
        Heidi says:

        Big AL asked how Armstrong ended up in jail …. He got 11 yrs. for ” Contempt of Court ” for fraud which he did not commit … …. the longest ever in history . What you read on Wikipedia is not all true either . Every Judge was bought and would not let him out but they could not proven anything against him either . BIG banks were involved . What THEY ( the BIG CLUB ) really wanted was his computer model from which he worked and could tell you ( or the world ) what will happen next . They didn’t get his Computer model . He was just about beaten to death in THE HOLE . During his jail time some friend open up a website and displayed his hand written letters about the markets . There were times when he was beaten so badly that this website asked all readers to send e-mails / make phone calls to the Warden / Congress / newspapers – anybody who could help . I was part of that group and we finally managed to get Armstrong at least back into a normal cell . Of course he was in very poor health during that time . Later – after he was released he mentioned that somebody from Congress got him out . Armstrong met people in jail who shouldn’t be in jail …unbelievable stories . Your government is the worst there is …did you know the the US has the most prisoners … more than any other country ?
        Anyways… this was just a ” short cut ” about Armstrong’s life in prison .

  20. On December 12, 2013 at 1:09 pm,
    Billy says:

    Heidi
    Trust me sharing your sources is usually bad luck. have a few real people that have been bearish since 2011. Their making money and don’t see a gold re-surge. But the may change his mind but don’t see it. The more successes a person has and the more credibility they are given the more people watch them….and then down the tubes they go. Eric Sprott use to be a home run hitter and I use to talk to the guys there regularly and he has crash and burned. I coined his new name Eric Hunt. That’s just how it works…..Silver may not see highs again for eons…So hope MA is right but their all wrong some of the time as good as they may seem..

    • On December 12, 2013 at 5:52 pm,
      Heidi says:

      Sharing my sources is bad luck ? Please explain .
      I know Armstrong since the mid ’90 …..sorry pal , no down the tubes with that.
      We are not talking about Adam Hamilton who bought every dip since late 2011 .
      About Eric Sprott …crashed …you know why ? I’m assuming here but I read the article where he declared Jim Sinclair as his hero at that time … I think it was written in 2012 . If he totally listen to Sinclair no wonder he is where is . Sinclair should quit giving his thoughts of ” where gold is going ” …. he hit a few correct but the most were garbage .
      Love to read here ” Silver may not see these highs again ” . Like Armstrong said : the bulls have to be stripped completely only THEN will the bull ran again .
      By the way …Sinclair announce in early 2013 : ” Gold will never be under $ 1600 again ” …a few month later gold dropped to $ 118o . So much for Sinclair and E. Sprott
      One other thing Armstrong said and nobody else : the run up in gold / silver for 11 yrs. was only a re-adjustment in price … it was no bull market yet . Gold needed to go to $ 2300 but it stopped by $ 1900 …same with silver to $ 50 – re: 1980. And then Armstrong said :
      The bull market in gold/silver hasn’t even stared yet . And the way things are going – by reading many comments like on this board ….people are starting to lose confident – because gold/silver are dropping since late 2011 …that can’t be a bull market .
      Many have / will lose their shirt because of PERMA BULL writers- like Adam H. / Sinclair . But once gold/silver really reached the bottom not too many will enjoy the REAL bull market .
      Another PERMA BULL writer – very often on kitco ( interviewed by the girl ) is David Bensimon . Now if anybody complaints about him I would understand that – totally off with all his number’s for markets / gold & silver….totally ! But complaining about Martin Armstrong ? Show me a better one who see’s things as they really are and not as a perma bull would like to see it .
      The low for gold is expected to be in by late Jan. 2014 or by June 2014 .
      Shall we revisit this site then ? Why not.

      • On December 12, 2013 at 6:28 pm,
        Billy Bob says:

        Don’t you have some sewing to do?

      • On December 13, 2013 at 10:42 am,
        Billy says:

        Heidi: ya got me wrong. Everything you said is 100% correct. MA is probably the most unbiased educated view period. He stands along as a visionary with his own analysis. I knew Sprott years ago when he was 29% compound annually. His only guy with a brain left his outfit. Sinclair clown too sold his customers accounts in the 70s at $200oz ( if I remember correctly) not the $800 top.
        I’m just saying you have to think differently than the heard. Try to tell people to buy at true bottoms or true tops. They won’t. MA is probably the only guy and maybe Larry Edelson. Bob Moriarty was high on the list but blew out his calls in the last year+. Bob sells lotto tickets. He use to get it to the week. Also hi site is beginning to resemble a tabloid news paper printing the same fellows that said BUY BUY a year ago.
        There a few guys that know their market. Bird, Matthew, Mark have a great handle on the market. Markets are more emotionally driven more than anything. MAs models show that. Gary is just a trader not an investor. Sorry I can’t jump in and out with $2mil.
        I’m just saying that even MA can go wrong as I’ve seen the best of the best managers get crushed. So soon as you shout it out that hes always correct you maybe in for a surprise. Nobodies right 100% but I got some dough on MA.

  21. On December 12, 2013 at 3:08 pm,
    Dick Tracy says:

    The problem with printing money is it creates a false sense that we can buy our way out of this, you can never solve economic problems in this way because if you want it to last the industry must be there in order to sustain the recovery and the manufacturing has gone to China so any printed money doesn’t help the economy because there is nothing left for a recovery to be sustained.

    It takes generations to build something substantial and when you give it all away you can’t just pump money because there is nothing to support jobs anymore in the Western world so this capital disappears overseas. DT

    • On December 12, 2013 at 3:12 pm,
      Dick Tracy says:

      Greece is like the US, print whatever you want but all you can sell back to the world are tomatoes and feta cheese. DT

      • On December 12, 2013 at 3:21 pm,
        Billy says:

        Printing? Where? Bond buying and banks are shoring up their balance sheets. Its not even hitting the economy in any major way….

        • On December 12, 2013 at 3:23 pm,
          Dick Tracy says:

          Exactly, you Billy just answered your own question. DT

          • On December 12, 2013 at 3:37 pm,
            Billy says:

            DT yes I was making that point. No ones receiving cash to spend. This is a massive wealth transfer to the banks. AND now Europe’s going to pull off a bail in and the US as well!! What a #$@%@$ SCAM. I HAVE TO WORK AND PAY 40% taxes!!?
            There I didn’t swear Al. At least there’s some informed individuals here. KWN is a pump story and bad for your financial health. STEER CLEAR…

      • On December 12, 2013 at 5:49 pm,
        Big Al says:

        I happen to like feta cheese!

        • On December 12, 2013 at 5:52 pm,
          Big Al says:

          Thanks Billy,

          By the way I have never listened to KWN. From what I have heard I would have to agree with you.

          Great way to make a s**t load of money though! Especially when you can continue to be so wrong. Oh well, caveat you know what!

          • On December 12, 2013 at 6:08 pm,
            Billy says:

            Al: After 8 years never seen a bear call at KWN. I use to have 7 figures with Sprott 13 years ago and was a big fan. He’s got so big promoting him self and silver he cant even manage his funds. TOO BIG TO MANEUVER so his clients get screwed…His Hedge fund has turned into a joke. I still own it $100k is now $33k 2 yrs later.
            Ill call’em as I see’em as its my dough.. In fact hes partiality responsible for the silver bubble and that ruins bull markets…..They go up to fast and POOF its over…

          • On December 12, 2013 at 6:30 pm,
            Billy Bob says:

            Never thought I would see Al curse.

        • On February 3, 2014 at 11:48 pm,
          MrsTahir says:

          It’s posts like this that make surfing so much plsreuae

  22. On December 12, 2013 at 3:11 pm,
    Big Al says:

    Machine Gun, all I can say is “yep”!

    • On December 12, 2013 at 4:59 pm,
      franky says:

      no more scared al ?

  23. On December 12, 2013 at 5:27 pm,
    hal says:

    let me throw this out: gary and others who are traders will buy and sell based on charts and moves, thus playing into the hands to whomever is controlling the market and trying to run stops. In other words someone starts a move and the traders exacerbate the move. perhaps we have a clash between short term or day traders and investors? And perhaps the ins and outher are the reasons for the extreme volatility.

    Ie a day r so ago gary says buy 10% position and I guess this moring he wakes up and ots sell. time. Not passing judgement on st trading (I guess I am ) but thats whats responsible an dof coure hft too

    good night.

    • On December 12, 2013 at 5:53 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Didn’t understand him to say sell you 10% position, but I will ask him in the morning.

  24. On December 12, 2013 at 7:34 pm,
    IsItPossible says:

    Very interesting article: http://www.zerohedge.com/print/482558

  25. On December 13, 2013 at 8:36 am,
    eagleeye says:

    Very good commentary today from individuals who clearly understand the PM markets better than most. The story of Martin Armstrong is particularly interesting. Those who have spoken badly about King World News are dead on. It’s an absolute farce.
    The gold miners appear to be making a bottom but that in itself is suspicious only because it is so obvious. The fact that Gary is now cautious is a bullish indicator but he doesn’t move the markets and he might even be right.

    • On December 13, 2013 at 9:01 am,
      Billy says:

      eagleeye: Yes d not support that (KWN) site! remove from bookmarks! I told them there that they were while….idiots.
      YES my charts show some bottoming on the PM stocks.
      Unfortunately this industry is full of liar promoters. Scabs that produce nothing that dilute dilute lie lie and its unfortunate that there are only a few that are working real hard to be the real deal but you need a fine tooth comb and a lot of experience to find them…..