Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
and speaking of darkness……Bart Chilton comments on Wall Street and the District of Corruption…….
Okay, my problem with these so called “experts” is that, they have very limited horizon or visibility of what’s going on fundamentally or in global financial arena. They are no different than average Joe you would talk inside airport lounge.. The guy looks at the parabolic move on chart and concludes that bubble is going to burst in a couple of months. Ha! what a laughable simpleton ..
-The global economies are very fragile compared to US, they all orbit around US like in the solar system
-If US economy picture is improving (it clearly is), these smaller economies are directly affected, albeit slowly.
-Fed Money printing was done to save large US banks, part of that money went to stocks, bonds, to developing economies.. the net effect of money printing is still ZERO.
-It takes time to trickle down the effect of the money printing aka consumer lending or growth.. again slow process
-If DOW is 16000 wait until it reaches 22000 then let’s see you still want to talk about bubble?
-Talk about bubble to an average successful wallstreeter and he will whip your ass.. Bubble talk is only for losers…
Okay now, which NYC bar has the best $300 martini?
You know I been just a little time – just a little time, mind you……trying to figure you out SILVER FOX. My conclusion..when you briefly said you are in your 30’s…..is rather simple. You are young…full of yourself…mind you.. that has things all figured out. Um, I have seen this many times before…it does not end well…usually. You have your head firmly up your arrogant a___. And when you fall, it will be an unfortunate sight to see. And when ‘they’ reset gold (silver) overnight your ‘wealth” will be taken from you – like a little baby -sucking on his mommies mammary glands. Now take that $300 martini and enjoy it while you can. BTW, who is the world would buy a $300 martini anyway? The same type of person that screwed us originally: central bankers and greedy con-artists. Good luck…oh, Merry Christmas….:)
Nailed it Marc. He thinks his silliness is impressing someone.
To add to my comment from yesterday, Silver Fox is simply stating his personal opinion and that is okay.
Most of us don’t agree at his points, but you have to admit that the Dow and S&P have performed admirably during 2013 so far.
Kathy just informed me that our conventional portfolio is up better than $60K. That doesn’t wipe out our losses in the mining sector by a long shot, but it certainly helps.
Our real estate is up about 5%. Better than a kick in the you know what!
Overall; however,still down. But that is okay for us because at our respective ages it is about absolute numbers.
Great comment Marc.
By the a very Merry Christmas from your elderly friends in Semiahmoo!
Maybe we’re just trying to catch up with this market….
Tex bubble talk is laughable.
What difference does it make if the Dow technically in a bubble or not? Personally, I don’t think it is, but it is overvalued and not at all worth the risk. A bubble is not a prerequisite for a bear market to set in.
If you want to speculate on it going to 22,000, go right ahead; but whether it does or not, the miners will outperform for the next several years at least.
“Winners” spend $300 on a martini? Not in my book.
Regarding the $300 Martini, of course I have to agree.
Correct SF. Just like Bonds….No bubble bubble heads. You get clowns like Bob Moriarty said in May sell the stock market and buy Gold. I’m not sure hes stupid or a Charleton…He said the bottom was in 13 months then May then Sept oh and now Dec ITS A BOTTOM. Maybe it is but not for long. These guys are back yard economist and don’t have a clue.
If that is the case Dillon, why are you here? Maybe a comment on your intellect.
When most give up maybe we will get a bottom. Not here to blow smoke up any wahoos though.
In case you haven’t noticed, no one in the world has a crystal ball. The only thing one can do in this game is play the odds. When sentiment gets extreme that usually means a bottom is close, but not always. Sometimes extreme just gets more extreme. It doesn’t mean someone is a charleton just that the market is doing something it rarely ever does.
Gary: Many Americans are more comfortable with the lie than they are with a truth. That is why Washington and Walls Street are filled with dishonest politicians, lawyers and bankers.
I agree with most everything you have said except for a minor issue in the way it will play out. Bonds, Currencies, Equities and Commodities are all manipulated by derivatives, swap agreements and other financial contracts which is proportional to their expansion. There are thousands of trillions of dollars in derivative such instruments mostly leveraged against each other upon a rehypothecated base of declining capital quality. For example forward earnings of most high flying companies reflect robust balance sheets derived from easy money used to buy back stock, reduce debt and overhead (fewer employees) and not to expand operations, build factories or increase R&D. The direct relationship between increase in money supply (QE) and major indexes world wide is inversely proportional to the increase in poverty, austerity and decline in standards of living in all countries afflicted.
As more and more people worldwide realize what is happening, some without actually knowing why, the functionality of governments to govern will decrease and weaken. Examples in history would be the last few years of the Soviet Union and several times near the end of Rome where leadership and laws changed rapidly in order to control. Stupid laws are commonly enacted to enforce control only to cause accelerated decline, the recent US recent Health Care Law for example.
The America people are at war against its own government, just like in Greece, Spain, France and so many other nations. In war the first casualty is always the truth, but for people the realization of the death of truth is slow and difficult to accept. It is now happening and increasing rapidly. Best to prepare accordingly.
A number of comments.
“The America people are at war against its own government, just like in Greece, Spain, France and so many other nations.”
I don’t agree as I am convinced that those “at war” represent a small number who are not “at war” but simply don’t agree with the agenda and are doing what they can to protect themselves as they see fit.
Your comment: “The direct relationship between increase in money supply (QE) and major indexes world wide is inversely proportional to the increase in poverty, austerity and decline in standards of living in all countries afflicted.” is thought provoking to say the least.
Thanks for your coments.
Great point Gary!
Dillon, I just followed your link on the Jim Rogers page, to the Mike Stathis interview.
Agree. I looked into the guy as I had never heard of him either. You can check him on Wiki. An extreme anti-semite with a bone to pick. Not exactly sure what his problem is but it is a big one.
Bird, he’s right, most that control the gold trade are the same as who owns Hollywood. When he calls it the way it is hes shut out of the media. He doesn’t play in any Raindeer games.
Videos of proof here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yI0wI9R_HE&feature=c4-overview&list=UUhm2z2-e1g2CPG4HXCIJRXQ
Prove it!? Mike was bang on not making blown out trades or sliding down the gold bear market.
Also we may have begun a 20 year bear market in gold. Some very wealth don’t waist their time with gold. Real estate specifically commercial is the only road to long Term secure wealth.
Was Stathis ever a gold bull? Commercial real estate is correlated with the economy, gold is not. This is why gold has outperformed it since 2008.
Mike trades gold but has been out for the bear. There’s times when to own and when to stay away. I’m just sick of the gold pumpers all the way up and all the way down. Schiff and the pile of others. 98% of these guys are Jewish and and make a ton off fees. They will never say sell.these people are dangerous.
After taking a look at Mike’s views on gold over the last few years, I find it hard to believe that he was ever bullish. If I’m right, then this genius missed the best run of any asset class this century. Can you show that he ever recommended it?
He clearly doesn’t understand gold.
The site says it all, Dillion. There is ample evidence of his views posted there and personally I find some of the material pretty objectionable. By the way, the correct spelling is “waste” and not “waist”. Did you skip skool a lot or something?
PS: Take a look at the Wiki. Mike may not even exist as a real person.
Bird: I went to school the same place you did. I’ve seen your spelling….Old key board working in the dark and who cares?
I only made it through 20 of the 28 minutes, because the information content was so low. He had lots of time for insults, but very little for making useful points based on evidence and logic.
The extent of his argument that bonds aren’t a bubble, at least in the first 20 minutes of the video? Paraphrasing, ‘it’s not a bubble because it was related to interest rates, which were going down!’ — Do you detect any intelligent thought here?
I’m sick of the gold pumpers too. But one needs to differentiate between long-term holdings, and capital you need to generate an income. Gold entering a 20 year bear market as physical demand skyrockets?!?
As for the semite thing, clearly they are disproportionately represented in finance (though 98% is an exageration), and in the debacles we’ve had since Rubin/Greenspan time in the late 90s. Just as they were disproportionately represented in the neo-con war crime against Iraq, based on lies. But this doesn’t reflect on Jews in general any more than the Italian mafia reflected on Italians. We should keep that straight.
Great point Grady. Yes he spends some time bashing but there is a lot to bash about.
Take up the 100k$ challenge and see who can beat him on long term. I bought gold and silver in 2000 I sold my many 1000s oz at $49 o and have the paper to prove it.
These Goldie’s pump everything’s going to crash so you better own gold Bob Moriarty piece of shit cost my father 50% of his saving and now he listens to me. Quote from BM Paulson lost 50% so we should feel good we lost less. That was eons ago. Now he says graft companies sold off for no reason!!? Ya the market is stupid as hell and should listen to me!!
Daaaaaa Once gold gist more to mine than it’s worth the whole shooting match is worthless. My best friends a driller and know his rolling stocks auction off when your operational cost are higher than the product served. YOUR ARE GAMBLING LIKE HELL AND BETTER PREY THAT YOUR USELESS METAL GOES HIGHER because almost theses
Companies are losing money now. Fools don’t buy this crap and save your selves.
Ask yourselves has this guy made any money for anyone the last 20 years?? Where’s his proven track record. Ya listen to Bob…peak oil we are all screed so buy my Pennie stocks.
MARK my F###ing words I will make it my mission to destroy these guys BIG TIME as they commodities cycle ended some time ago and their still
This link is the same kind of crap, Dillon.
Lots of insults and innuendo, virtually no real informational content.
With all due respect Dillon, your father lost his own money, not Moriarty or anyone else.
Re: “Companies are losing money now. Fools donâ€™t buy this crap…” My biggest gains by far have come from companies that don’t earn money but burn it. The gains (and risks!) are outsized because of the potential for a company to go from nothing to something.
You are right, fools should not participate.
Dillon, yesterday you asked: “Price and value exactly what does the correlation mean?”
Since gold is money, an assessment of it has to include, first and foremost, a look at its value relative to real goods and services. By comparing gold’s current purchasing power to its historical average, we can tell if gold is really going up or if the currency it is priced in is going down. For example, Fourteen years ago (Dec. ’99), gold was about $290 and was worth 11.3 barrels of oil. Today, gold is a whopping $910 higher, yet it is worth just 12.1 barrels of oil. Since 1970, the average barrels per ounce of gold is 15.1. So we can see that gold is currently undervalued in oil terms. Looking at copper, we see the same performance relationship profile. In December, 1999, an ounce of gold was worth 336 pounds of copper. Today, it is worth 357 pounds. Since 1970, an ounce of gold has been worth an average of 337 pounds of copper. As is the case with oil, we can see that gold has only slightly outperformed copper over the last 14 years despite being up 4 fold in terms of dollars. There are many more similar examples, but if we simply look at commodities as a group, we notice that gold did not break out of its 20 year range against commodities until 2008.
Conclusion: Fiat currencies have been in a bear market, but, for the first 8 years of the last 14, gold was NOT in a confirmed bull market. Gold must go far higher in real terms, not dollar terms, before we can call it a bubble.
What has been before, will be again. History IS your guide.
Excellent Professor Matthew…excellent…thank you for your detailed analysis!
I knew this explanation wouldn’t be lost on you, Marc.
I’ve never seen anyone in my life use gold to make a transaction. Hog wash. A potatoe farm is better than gold or cash.
Gold bugs a re redick.
I didn’t think you’d understand.
Put a million dollars down on a $2.5 mil commercial building and over a 25 year period you will have a hell of a lot money than guessing markets and trying to NOT blow up. You will sleep well always and will need very little time to sit on blogs. A better life period. This is just a hobby to kill boredom.
I have nothing against commercial real estate but it is going to get much cheaper versus gold, generally speaking (“location, location, location” always applies).
Avoid margin debt and you don’t have to blow up in any sector.
Matthew: Mike trades all things. Shorted US housing ect. Now I getting BONDs are not in a bubble. Clive Maund Gold chart is pretty much parabolic and was safer to be out early than late. Dow is NO WAY a bubble. So many are looking for a bottom in Gold and a top in the Dow and that’s just not how things work.Checkout the gold Dow ratio there’s you dump gold buy the market signal. Due for a bounce!? Happy Holidays! Oh and Bird…. Rum and Ginger mmmm good!
The Dow has doubled against gold in two years and hasn’t been this overbought since 1999. Volume has been falling for the entire move up out of the ’09 low, and horizontal overhead resistance is formidable (such resistance is more important than a trendline in my opinion). I wouldn’t touch the Dow with new money here, much less sell gold to buy it. But I can get behind selling gold to buy miners.
On its way to $1923, gold’s last double took about 33 months. When it is really in a bubble, the last double will probably take just 3 months, and that is assuming NO hyperinflation.
Comment to Dillon:
98% of these guys are Jewish?
Common man take your bigotry to another site and if you choose to stay here smarten up!
Big Al: Who runs Hollywood!?
There is a certain crew selling Gold and its all about the commission. Try Break into Hollywood and see how that goes. If one stood up and said get the hell out of Gold they would lose their bread and butter. I married to someone from the other side of the planet different colored skin. Bigotry!? Just a fact of that these mouth pieces are Jewish. Tell me who called the Top in Gold? Who would dare.
Agree wholeheartedly Al. I am always happy to argue about how prices may turn and what the future holds for precious metals but as soon as some guys start blowing racist smoke to inflame sentiments they have lost my confidence. Lets just keep to facts about the metals complex and not get lost in agenda driven crap that adds nothing whatsoever to the discussion.
Matthew’s argument, that is.
there is no martini on earth, worth $300
a $300 bottle of wine is pushing it………
I hate to pay $300 for dinner……
I never have Jerry because that is truly “out of the box”!
No it is not pushing it. It represents stupidity. I have a pretty good collection and nothing is close to three hundred bucks. Kathy and I support causes and not stupidity!
I don’t know man. The best Martini bar in the world is Dukes in London.
I have to agree with Gary …however….we could have a small correction in equities and very possible keeps going as an inflation hedge along with housing. The commodities and the metals catch on fire either way as long as any big correction in equities is contained. No crash or all bets are off. The metals may go into that parobolic stage and best if we see
good markets. Much more wealth has a better chance going into PM’S over say 2 years. Steady increases without all the crashes in PM’S. WHO KNOWS but …YOU CANT WIN UNLESS YOUR IN.
No yo u can’t win unless you are in! But common guys and gals remember to diversify.
Don’t want to jinks the HUI……the train may have already left the station.
It looks good against the S&P, too ($HUI:$SPX). Both the daily and weekly charts look very good here to me.
Matthew….wonderful insight. You have excellent analysis. All my dry powder is gone last 2 days. AT THE END OF THE DAY ITS FABULOUS VALUE and I decided there is no use waiting for better prices.
Thanks HH, I have been a buyer the last few days too. My money is where my mouth is.
Ya Matthew…..I already knew that your …..NO COWARD. I”m sure your strong hand is as
Good as your excellent analysis. We have a lot of fellas here that would love to discourage
us all from becoming prosperous. Misery loves company and its never going to change.
ANYONE READING THIS MAKE SURE TO HANG ON TO YOUR POSITIONS AND PUT THESE JOHNNY COME LATELY BEARS ON IGNORE. The truth is they hate to see others get ahead.
Dont kill the messenger…… ITS THE TRUTH…..Been there ……done that.
I have dropped about $25K in these markets during the last few months. One resource deal and one non resource deal (Adamera as disclosed and Snipp also as disclosed.)
Probably no more action until next year from me.
Just keep in mind the inverse correlation betwen fear trades like gold and the stock market though, Matthew. The time may not be quite right to buy gold as I see it. Indeed I antiicipate more downside in metals prices now and more oportuntiies on the short side. Buying miners now is defacto evidence of a person who believes stocks will keep rising during 2014 at the same time they believe gold will stage a recovery while on the other hand buying gold itself is a vote of non-confidence in US equities. You need to know which side of the trade you are on where the general stock market and its strength is concerned. You also need to differentiate between the two trades (gold versus gold stock) to maximize your investment and reduce the risk you are taking at the critical junctures. I think both will perform better in 2014 but timing is important to entering the trades. Right now gold and silver are both showing signs of continued trend weakness at the daily chart level and should be ignored until sentiments improve. The mine equities meanwhile will not likely show good performance until metals themselves improve. So this is an interesting puzzle in catching the best re-entry poit while avoiding the pitfalls that could lie ahead.
Re: “Buying miners now is defacto evidence of a person who believes stocks will keep rising during 2014 at the same time they believe gold will stage a recovery…”
Not true, Bird. It can go either way. There have been years when the entire gold sector was correlated to stocks and times like now, when the entire sector is not correlated. On the weekend, I said: “From 2000 to 2002, the HUI went up 3 fold while the S&P 500 lost 50%.
The best bull run in any sector happens when that sector is considered the only place to be. …both the S&P and the miners did very well in 2003.”
Also pertinent is a look at why the setup is different now that in 2008. Also on the weekend, I said: “Because of what happened in 2008, I think everyone now believes that a stock market decline will be bad for gold stocks. What people are missing is that deleveraging is likely to cause net buying, not selling, in the gold sector this time. In 2008, everything was coming off of an all-time high. This time, gold is about 40% off its high while the miners are about as beat up as theyâ€™ve ever been. Margin debt in conventional stocks right now belongs mostly to the bulls. In the gold space, however, sentiment could hardly be worse and it is therefore the bears who are very likely to carry the most margin debt â€”on the short side. We are seeing an inverted mania in which the bears think they canâ€™t lose. When they start to get margin calls for their conventional stock positions, they wonâ€™t have any long positions to exit in the precious metals (like they had in â€™08). Instead, they will be exiting shorts (buying) in their rush for liquidity. The resulting strength will be noticed quickly and reinforced by fresh long-side buying. â€śSector rotationâ€ť will also add tremendously to the buying.”
Gold will not have to perform very impressively from current levels for the miners to do very well. Particularly at current valuations, I consider the miners to be a greed trade not a fear trade. I believe they will outperform conventional stocks in 2014 even if gold does not. However, this expectation does require that gold puts in a convincing bottom soon.
Perhaps. However if miners are to be a greed trade that assumes investors are not moving there because other markets are in retreat. In other words, we need to start seeing miners perform ALONG with the stock market. This in fact is my view of how the next year will play out. It looks to me that gold stocks will rise with gold and markets in general and so that is how I will position. NOT from a place where I assume there is going to be a sudden unraveliing. Actually I happen to think this will be a particularly good year for the stock markets that is coming despite all the rumblings of trouble.
The reason I disagree is that the great undervaluation of the miners will attract smart money in general —especially after such great gains in the stock market. The relative strength that this will cause will get noticed by many, which will act as a catalyst, which, in turn, will provide a positive feedback.
So I think we could see the miners begin a sharp mean reversion while stocks correct. Then, I can see the situation turn to something closer to your expectation in which the miners and stocks rise together. Such correlation has come several times for just weeks at a time in 2013. Looking at the bigger picture, the two have been negatively correlated since mid-2011 when the two began their respective new trends.
Agree with your first paragraph. Regarding the second I could also agree that these things are often an issue of timing. At least we both have a positive outlook on metals for the coming year. Exactly when it kicks in is another story though. Doc thinks first quarter…….sounds good to me.
I agree with Doc. I guess I’ll go listen to him now.
HEAVHITTER, ……. YOU ARE RIGHT NO USE WAITING FOR BETTER PRICES.
I’AM IN AS FAR AS I WANT TO BE IN…. LETS ROLL.
A little clarification guys, when I said I have dropped about $25K in these markets, I was not referring to loosing $25K but investing $25K.
I am saying this for Dillon’s benefit as I question his intelligence and want him to completely understand me.
Ya Al….you wont believe what I have in now. So I won’t even say it.
I never do any investing unless I see a very rare EXCEPTIONAL
OPPORTUNITY. Comes along every 3 to 5 years.
SAY NO MORE DO NOT WANT TO JINKS THIS TRADE.
SHORT DAY IN THE MARKET TODAY…. BUT PM STOCKS MOVED BETTER THEN EXPECTED.
Silver man……….1 AND A 2 AND……3
HI HO SILVER !!
Merry Christmas everyone
HEY A LITTLE…. LAWRENCE WELK AND ….. THE LONE RANGER. WE ARE SHOWING ARE AGE HERE.
Yep and we go back to war Thursday.
MAN THE BATTLE STATIONS
Who are Lawrence Welk and The Lone Ranger.
Any relation to m Myran Floran, The Lennon Sisters and Range Rider?
And to you, Heavy!
Christmas eve, I’m not drinking the Kool-ade.
Neither am I, just good Chardonnay!
I got nuthin since I am such a jerk when I drink. All self imposed of course. I will have to just believe you are all enjoying your pricey martinis and Chardonney’s. They got booze in heaven you think?
And sincere best to you The Greater!
old peramiters to measure stocks dont work welll. So i look for cash flow, and business model. now we can short bonds [use etfs]. I wish the normal gold and silver would work , but they dont now. The big worry is Iran, Syria, and Egypt –all unstable. merry Xmas and happy Honika to all S
Here is the chart showing the clear parabolic nature of the move this year. When this parabola breaks it’s going to be the beginning of the end for the economy. If only the Fed could see the unintended consequences of their actions.
GOT GOLD !! & the 4….G’s
Market has gone parabolic this year from around 1400 at the beginning of the year.
200 day is really around 1675. Would have been great to just own an etf like uym (materials ) which I sold too early and went to gold stocks.
Looks like something Bernie Madoff would create.
You kidding man it’s only 200 points above the last high. It’s called a breakout. Due for a correction in Jan but good luck on your crash call. Money’s coming from the eurozone. Markets can invert to the economy so as to fool the fools.
If the Fed had just let the 4 year cycle play out naturally in 2012 and turned off the printing presses we might have been on a sustainable path into a secular bull market right now. Instead we now have a parabolic move that is destined to take down the global economy when it collapses.
Bubble looking for a pin.
Gary: The Dow just yesterday touched the upper trend line on a chart going back over 30 years, it looks like a giant MegaPhone pattern. S&P has already gone above its upper trend line like you show. How many other Indexes world wide have similar patterns? Almost all of them as I can see, heck even the Venezuela market is doing the same.
Central controlled economies never work, they always end in collapse. So does this mean the whole world will go into collapse? If it does not, what then will it be?
A great update on gold by Clive Maund:
MERRY CHRISTMAS GOLD BEARS
Your liability is unlimited and time is not on your side.
Retail sales are down over last year and the FED will keep pumping
untiil the dollar collapses. In Jeddeh, lower prices have sparked a buying
Frenzy. At this rate with buyed activity greatly increasing around the world
Continued…….GOLD could gap up running by all the
shorts stops placing them into financial ruin. Just think
if gold gapped up 75 or 100 dollars running by all those
HEAVYHITTER – who are the parties that would gap gold up 75-100 dollars and financially ruin the shorts?
Don’t you think it would take about $200 gap up to do it?
Shorts covering Fred as demand picks up. We might get a bull raid
and if they run by all those stops the short sellers wont get stopped
out. So if a trader is heavily short he could lose everything. See what
happens. Right now though im more concerned about staying a strong
long. One problem the market has had too many weak longs. Die hard
gold bugs are giving up. All the sellers are being exhausted. Say no more
I will jinks the market. STAY HUMBLE….IMVHO
HEAVY. It you sounds like you want to get everyone on your train? Why sit here all day and sell people on your views? Just go make dough!!
Just a quick comment on retail sales Heavy.
Yes the in store sales are down. I have yet to see the on-line sales. Those will tell the tale.
Best to you on this blessed day
Thanks Big Al and all this talk of taper……stats are not so good.
Hope you are getting some good R&R.
PEACE ALWAYS !
Does anybody know what that black curve line showing the parabolic uptrend is, in Clive’s 20-year gold chart?
out of sight………………
Someone posted this prior and sounds like he has half a brain:
This all sounds good guys, no one ever thought precious metals would enter a 20 year bear market a couple of decades ago either. Too many of the same guys are convinced a repeat cannot ever happen, and too many of them are calling for a bottom. That does not bode well.This all sounds good guys, no one ever thought precious metals would enter a 20 year bear market a couple of decades ago either. Too many of the same guys are convinced a repeat cannot ever happen, and too many of them are calling for a bottom. That does not bode well.
There was an obvious fundamental change in the 80’s that ended the last bull market. Volcker raised rates drastically to break inflation.
We have made no fundamental change yet. Until the fundamentals change the secular gold bull can not end. It has only been postponed by a very successful manipulation.
I’ve read Moriarty for years: He talks about the USD is used toilet paper. THe man is PUMPING GOLD STOCKS and has gone insane. He bragged and bragged that he got out at the top 1980 and said he would do the same….nope. Birdie in hand is better than 2 in the bush. 9 out of 10 his companies are used toilet paper now. Nice work Bobbo! PS My poor father was following him and lost his shirt. If you can’t back it don’t brag you are considered a dangerous person to the Joes that read your crap….