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The stock market rally is getting long in the tooth, there is a very unsettling and ragged feeling about this situation. It doesn’t take much with prices at record levels and the future trend of business highly dubious, interest rates are edging up and tapering has begun, it’s altogether too easy to foresee a time of reckoning ahead.
My job in the real world working in construction taught me that when times are good you must save and hunker down because the industry is very cyclical and when the bad times arrive you can be out of work for a long time so be prepared as the boy scouts like to say. DT
Sound thinking, touche….:)….Merry XMAS!
Merry Xmas SD Marc, and Happy Holidays to All! DT
Another bubble looking for a pin.
Look out for forced selling from margin accounts that are at the highest level of all time. DT
No DT. We don’t have the condtions yet. I think this price growth in the markets could go on for quite a lot longer than seems plausible to most here. All of 2014 just for starters. I am not ready to make an estimate of how the Dow will end the coming year but lets just say it is going to be higher than it is today DESPITE the headwinds.
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Simple it is.
When parabola starts to collapse, go short on SPY, until then it is PARTY!
Rinse your glass, refill, rinse.. have fun.
I just looked at a kitco chart of the djia from 09 to date. I dont think it really looks like a parabola blow off top we going to crash any moment chart.
Just looks like its going not in a straight line up to me. Maybe 85 billion a month up?
Anybody have an idea as to which etf on the canadian market would be best to bet on a market crash?
Am I sounding like jumbo shrimp? lol
Merry Christmas all.
b…warning…..never associate yourself with being moron…..like oxymoron….just kidding…..Merry Christmas…….
No, no no no no no no no no no no no no!!! So wrong Gary.
You used the word “parabolic at least 10 times. How is the chart of the S&P or any of the indices parabolic? Do you even know what the term refers too? You have to go to a 40 year chart to see anything even resembling a parabola (basis of the word parabolic). I think your analysis just stinks and you are getting this completely wrong. There won’t be a crash in January by the way. Not in February or March either. That means gold will probably not perform well for months nor stage much if any of a recovery.
“I contue to believe we are in the final euphoria manic buying phase of this bull market” ~~ Gary Savage
Do you even know why that sounds ridiculous? No wonder some of you people held your gold positions right back to the bottom with that kind of review of the near term market (except this is not the gold bottom yet; it is still going to get worse). I really have to work to contain myself some days and not start cursing at the idiocy I listen to day after day. Sure there are worries about us being toppy. Margin debt is high. There are rumblings of a sovereign debt crisis appearing again. We have tapering in place and slightly rising rates. Lots going on. We DO NOT have panic buying though nor are the charts proving anything even modestly resembling a parabolic move. If you have one then bring it on. In the meantime where do you get that pension funds and institutionals are “unloading” stocks on unsuspecting retail investors? They are all buying and most of pretty fully invested (a problem, yes, bit still not the end of the road). Don’t you suppose you need retail interest for that scenario of yours to even begin to exist? What the hell draws you to your conclusions? You suggest to everyone that if they are long here they should only be day-trading the market. Do you really think that is the correct solution to an imminent melt dow. WTF? Is this a Monday morning or are you drunk or something?
Maybe you guys can can give us an example of what you consider a parabola? The steep trajectory from late 2012 looks parabolic to me. I would think a blow-off top could still send it up another 10% or more though.
Approaching this market with a short-term perspective at this point seems like reasonable advice.
Bird Man, given the supreme confidence of your commentary, you better be right or you’ll have serious crow to eat.
I appreciate that Gary always indicates the uncertainty involved in his scenarios. Frankly it’s bizarre to me how so many pretend to have a crystal ball, or demand that Gary or others have one. To me this game is a matter of navigating uncertainty, not pretending it’s not there.
My most frequent disagreements with Gary are around his use of terminology such as “manipulation” or “conspiracy” or this new one today “parabolic”. He views the world very differently than I and I think it is because of interpretation and casual usage of strong words that makes it disagreeable to me. I sue don’t expect him to have a crystal ball though. He is in the business of selling advice…….I just think he gets it wrong some of the time and conveys ideas incorrectly because of his misuse of words.
Bird: your the only one that makes sense on this board.
A bubble Gary hahahaha. Do you know that company’s have slashed cost had share buy back ect ect and there in alone a market can go way higher than one would expect. There’s plenty of worry and markets love walls of worry. Don’t bet the farm.
LOL, I swear I posted before Bird, we are not in Kahoots.
Ha Ha. Looks like I slipped my post under the wire and got in a minute earlier than you. I type fast when I am losing my temper, B.
ESP……….you guys are like two turtle doves………..
Hi Jerry, I cant account for it. But I just read an article about the dangers of reading or informing ourselves with people that agree with us. The articles idea was we want people to disagree, the trick is to listen and see if their argument has merit.
Differant opinions are a good thing.
And the differance of opinions between Bird and Matt can be really entertaining to say the least. lol
Anyway, I just checked that kitco chart and to me, it doesnt look like a crash coming, a pullback or correction maybe, but not a crash. Not yet.
What can I say? Thats what I see.
Agree B. No crash coming. Hell, the charts don’t even suggest a correction right now although there was that fascinating one produced by Hussman that had me worried for a few days. Maybe you recall it? His observation was how the buying on dips was “tightening” as prices rose into smaller frequencies and that it indicated trouble might be coming. Guess we will find out soon enough if he is correct unless the chart pattern changes.
Hello B……..The market has only recovered what it lost…..,I think it will go higher, for three reasons……
1. everyone is expecting it to crash. 2.the fed is not going to give in yet.
3. I think it should crash,,,and I am always wrong.
Not just entertaining but informative as well. I like listening to both sides and then find a third.
absolutly Mark, some excellent info and thinking from those disagreements.
Jerry, they are more like Swiss clocks. DT
Actually no one is expecting even a correction. Certainly yourself and bird are perfect examples.
Dumb money confidence is at 75% while smart money confidence is at 33%. Only a few points away from levels that generated the 18% correction in 2011.
Many sentiment indicators are at or above levels seen at the 2007 top.
The further the market gets stretched above the mean the more confident retail traders become and the more vehemently they defend their position. This is always how it is at bubble tops. I remember vividly the criticism I had to endure in 2005 when i suggested that real estate was in a bubble and that it would pop and wreck havoc on the global financial system and economy.
On the other hand the further the market stretches above the mean the more fearful professional traders become. They know that the longer this continues the more severe the regression will be when the market turns down.
The odds of the market repeating another 30% move next year are very slim considering this is nearing the upper limit for all bull markets in history in terms of duration. Unless you think this time is different (it’s never different) then 5 years isn’t the time to look for bigger and bigger gains but time to look for a top.
Personally I think the black swan that will sink the market will be a currency crisis in the dollar next year.
Gary……I said in point number three(3) to B……that it should crash,,,, and I was always wrong………….logic would tell us that it should crash,,,but, the fed. is in control and will stay in control for awhile……
We are UNDER the cost of Production(Silver Talk with David Morgan) 28:58 / mostly talk on silver, yet at 15:55 he discusses gold at 24:30 and pretty much of video he discusses the paper ETF racket operating and how when investors go to Sprott Physical Trust trading at a premium because investors know they have physical there whereas most other ETF crowd have nothing backing their ETF`s but more paper. – And suppression of this market by the paper bunch just might be the problem. So it seems that Gary does have an ally in the likes of David Morgan, not Bird(the Banker) view. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tFQ0EUJqUTc
I prefer to be known as a treasury guy, not a banker, Dennis. Lets just say I enjoy having the keys and combos to the big boxes. It keeps money in perspective to what it really is too.
Gary:Thank you for stepping up and vorlnteeuing to represent our community’s interest on the RTD Board. As a resident of Parker and a long-time RTD commuter, I would like the opportunity to speak with you about very relevant issues to commuters from the Parker area and all citizens who pay RTD taxes. The first issue is the history of problematic service for riders of the P route regional bus service, which has stops in the Pinery, the Parker PNR, the Lincoln & Jordan PNR and then heads to Civic Center RTD Station. The second issue is the unbalanced focus of fare inspection enforcement on light-rail users and the almost complete lack of fare enforcement on local bus routes. As RTD has expanded its search for additional revenues to included charging for parking at RTD parking lots for commuters who do not reside within the tax district, I am fearful this may be expanded so that commuters who do reside within the tax district. I would welcome your telephone call in the early evenings M-F or anytime during the weekend. Thank you. Kory Nelson (720) 300-7706
Good points all around. Truly apertciaped.
Personaly, I am leary of David Morgan.
Now that Mr.Sprott got fired isnt the fund reducing its metal holdongs?
Should make more available for asia I would think.
Maybe Morgan can call another bottom?