Gary Savage – Fri 3 Jan, 2014

Who Da Thought!

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Featuring:
Al KorelinGary Savage

Comments:
  1. On January 3, 2014 at 8:59 am,
    b says:

    Gary, how far do you think this rally should go before backing off?

    • On January 3, 2014 at 9:31 am,
      SILVERMAN says:

      B, NOBODY KNOWS. JUST HANG LONG.

      • On January 3, 2014 at 9:55 am,
        SD Marc says:

        SM,
        Exactly…spot on! This is NOT rocket science…the MAJOR TREND has been set in stone for over 13 years…….if you can wait you will be handsomely rewarded. Then the main question for you will be: When does this transfer of wealth just turn in to plain greed. You will have to KNOW when to get out. Now there is the GOLDEN QUESTION?!

        • On January 3, 2014 at 10:09 am,
          Big Al says:

          As it always has been, Marc!

        • On January 3, 2014 at 3:37 pm,
          Silverbug Dave says:

          To SD Marc’s coment: major trends trend until they end!
          I would love to think that gold is going to start its next leg up owing to the financial disasters still lurking around every corner but I dunno, I really don’t. 12 up years in a row comprises a pretty good complete bull market. Nearly to the inflation adjusted high of 1980 (was an absolute bubble top of epic proportions). It’s not a bubble this time but not all bulls end in a bubble (in 1966, stocks weren’t really in a bubble (at least not like 1929 or 2000) and then they had a 16 year correction or grind until the big breakout in 1982). I wouldn’t hold your breath for $7000 gold just yet.

          • On January 3, 2014 at 7:40 pm,
            Al Korelin says:

            Neither would I, Silverbug Dave

      • On January 3, 2014 at 10:09 am,
        Big Al says:

        Silverman,

        I have to agree with you at this point in time.

      • On January 3, 2014 at 10:28 am,
        Birdman says:

        Yes, Silverman….nobody knows. Given that silver almost certainly went parabolic almost three years back though we can pretty safely assume some time will be needed for it to stage another run to the heights it already achieved.

      • On January 3, 2014 at 12:19 pm,
        SILVERMAN says:

        OK, OK, OK, HERE IS MY FIRST AND LAST CALL.

        GOLD IS UP TODAY, AND THE PM STOCKS ARE DOWN TODAY.
        THAT MEANS GOLD WILL BE DOWN ON MONDAY.
        IF I’AM WRONG WHO CARES!!

        • On January 3, 2014 at 12:32 pm,
          Matthew says:

          There’s nearly nothing but green on my screen. My miners are up an average of 5% today.
          Monday will be the real first day of the year.

          • On January 3, 2014 at 12:37 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Yes, as far as the financial community is concerned, it will be the first day of the year.

          • On January 3, 2014 at 7:42 pm,
            Al Korelin says:

            Silverman’ s of course!

        • On January 3, 2014 at 12:36 pm,
          Big Al says:

          Your wife?

          • On January 3, 2014 at 2:06 pm,
            Birdman says:

            Whose wife?

          • On January 3, 2014 at 2:25 pm,
            Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

            Excuse me Al???!

    • On January 3, 2014 at 10:08 am,
      Gary says:

      B,
      No idea, but if the cyclical bear is finished then I would think the intermediate rally would at least test the April breakdown at 1520.

      • On January 4, 2014 at 12:02 am,
        Heidi says:

        Is Gary really good in guessing ? Gold to $ 1520 on this rally ? The gold bear is DEAD ? If he is than Martin Armstrong is totally wrong … this current bounce maybe to $ 1301 and he is still expecting $ 1000 in gold .
        Will check back if gold goes OVER $ 1320

    • On February 1, 2014 at 12:53 pm,
      Deiver says:

      The paragon of unsetdranding these issues is right here!

  2. On January 3, 2014 at 9:05 am,
    Fred says:

    Oil has gone from over $100 to $94.45 right now with gold going in the opposite direction in the past few days.

    Is the entire global economy slowing???? We will see.

    • On January 3, 2014 at 10:10 am,
      Big Al says:

      Not if you believe the “experts” at the Fed!

  3. On January 3, 2014 at 9:15 am,
    Matthew says:

    I agree that a rally looks likely here. If it happens, a move to 300 or even a little more for the HUI would not surprise me. A move to 400 by the end of the year would also not surprise me.
    The HUI offered roughly 100% gains in each of the following years: ’01, ’02, ’03, and ’05.

    • On January 3, 2014 at 9:22 am,
      SD Marc says:

      A very Happy New year, Matthew!

      • On January 3, 2014 at 9:29 am,
        Matthew says:

        A very Happy and New Year to you, Marc! We’re finally going to get a dose of prosperity in our gold portfolios!

        • On January 3, 2014 at 9:46 am,
          Matthew says:

          That funny, I left out “prosperous” after “and!”

          • On January 3, 2014 at 9:56 am,
            SD Marc says:

            No worries…as you KNOW I do that all the time…:)

    • On January 3, 2014 at 10:11 am,
      Big Al says:

      Why do you say that, Matthew?

      • On January 3, 2014 at 10:21 am,
        Matthew says:

        Technicals, cycles, sentiment —it all looks good to me. It’s obvious to me that I wasn’t the only one accumulating miners for the last couple of months. Since bonus season is now over, institutional support for conventional stocks is probably disappearing now, too. New money will be looking for opportunity and no place looks as good as mining right now.

        • On January 3, 2014 at 10:43 am,
          Big Al says:

          I happen to be buying some of them, but I am still pretty cautious.

  4. On January 3, 2014 at 9:22 am,
    b says:

    Matt, so whats your guess? How far does gold go before going back down?

    • On January 3, 2014 at 9:36 am,
      Matthew says:

      I think gold can easily go to the $1525 to $1550 area before the weekly chart starts to show any fatigue.
      I’m glad you used the word “guess.”

      • On January 3, 2014 at 9:47 am,
        b says:

        That Matt, would be a big rally, if Gary is thinking the same thing, its no wonder he sees a possibility of a big “cartel” move.
        Well, they gotta switch from short to long sooner or later, and maybe the goldstocks really are getting low.

        • On January 3, 2014 at 9:55 am,
          Matthew says:

          When you consider that gold moved up $254 in two months after the June low, I don’t think a $350 move up from the retest of that low is all that impressive. Once the double bottom is confirmed, there will be a lot more confidence driving this move. There will be much more greed-driven careless buying (price chasing) this time.

          • On January 3, 2014 at 10:13 am,
            Big Al says:

            If gold continues the trend of the last couple of days, I would agree with you Matthew.

          • On January 3, 2014 at 10:38 am,
            b says:

            Thats a good point Mat. There very well might be some greed coming into play.

      • On January 3, 2014 at 4:35 pm,
        Bobby says:

        Why not start the new year with some wild, reckless predictions?

        • On January 3, 2014 at 7:44 pm,
          Al Korelin says:

          Like $5k to $7k gold in the mid term!

          • On January 3, 2014 at 7:47 pm,
            Bobby says:

            Yes, maybe we can double our bet, al?

          • On February 1, 2014 at 10:04 am,
            Vinod says:

            That’s a cunning answer to a chanellging question

        • On January 3, 2014 at 7:57 pm,
          Bobby says:

          I see you are back at your desk, al, don’t forget to email me for my address.

        • On January 4, 2014 at 12:34 pm,
          Matthew says:

          Why not start the new year with some wildly idiotic comments, too?

  5. On January 3, 2014 at 9:30 am,
    James (the lesser) says:

    Gold came out of the gate nice but it is a very long race.

    $1340 is still my key

    • On January 3, 2014 at 9:47 am,
      Matthew says:

      James, since a strong wall of worry equals a strong and healthy bull market, your skepticism is a better friend to gold holders than my bullishness. Oh, the irony… Maybe I should hibernate.
      I’m not kidding about any of that, btw.

  6. On January 3, 2014 at 9:39 am,
    Dick Tracy says:

    What can you say, what can you do? This is from Canada’s leading magazine, Macleans. How safe is your job. Mass layoffs, factories closing, even resource companies are slashing jobs.

    The Pink-slip parade, Canada post 8,000 to 10,000 jobs gone by 2015, Bank of Montreal 1,000 jobs axed, Blackberry, 4,5000 jobs axed, Hallmark cards -Toronto- 300 jobs gone, Sears Canada, bankruptcy, number of jobs not listed but must be in the thousands, Sun Media, 200 jobs gone, Pixar Canada 100 jobs gone. I think we get the picture, the reversal into gold is a flight to safety. DT

    • On January 3, 2014 at 10:05 am,
      Dick Tracy says:

      Blackberry should read 4500 jobs, it’s always good to be accurate if you are a realist, right Marc. DT

      • On January 3, 2014 at 10:15 am,
        Big Al says:

        That is a good correction from almost 1/2 million!

    • On January 3, 2014 at 10:09 am,
      Irwin says:

      DT;
      Hallmark – reminds me of a hallmark writer having a bad day.
      -she wrote:
      “My tire was thumpin’
      I thought it was flat;
      I looked at the tire
      and noticed your cat.
      Sorry”.

      • On January 3, 2014 at 10:16 am,
        Big Al says:

        I’ll bet we will never see that in a Hallmark card!

      • On January 3, 2014 at 10:40 am,
        b says:

        lol- an excellent card, Im still laughin.

        • On January 3, 2014 at 10:51 am,
          Jerry(Gator)M says:

          b says: You wouldn’t laugh if it was your cat.

    • On January 3, 2014 at 10:15 am,
      Big Al says:

      I did not realize those numbers Machine Gun.

      You mentioned six employers and seven if you count Sears. Will those jobs be picked up by other employers?

      • On January 3, 2014 at 10:29 am,
        Dick Tracy says:

        Hi Al, It looks like Sears who were a Canadian institution might hold onto their appliance division (Kenmore) but their retail here is gone. I talked to a Sears appliance repairman two weeks ago and he has worked for them for 26 years but his job will be gone in Mid March. The post office will drop all house to house deliveries, but they have been hammered hard by Canpar, UPS, and FedEx, and by their own incompetency. Someone may start a private house to house delivery but I’m not seeing any plans there. Most of the other job losses are due to a worsening economy except for Blackberry where it is a combination of competition and a worsening economy. DT

        • On January 3, 2014 at 10:46 am,
          Big Al says:

          Thanks Machine Gun.

          Stephanie (our youngest) is now working for Lulu Lemon at its corporate headquarters in Vancouver and absolutely loving it!

        • On February 2, 2014 at 10:07 am,
          Pisi says:

          I was so confused about what to buy, but this makes it unrenstaddable.

      • On January 3, 2014 at 10:41 am,
        b says:

        Al, of course they will be picked up, at half the wages.
        Just a matter of time.

  7. On January 3, 2014 at 9:53 am,
    Dick Tracy says:

    Our government here is selling everything but the kitchen sink these days and I agree they should not be allowed to run a lemonade stand, the money that they will receive is earmarked to pay off some of their debt. It’s about time they realized what is happening around the world. DT

    • On January 3, 2014 at 9:59 am,
      SD Marc says:

      DT,
      I figured out our “problem”! Like my beloved Uncle Merv use to tell me: Marc, you are TOO into reality…:!…yep, so true….BUT, I dont know if ignorance is bliss when it comes to macro-economics….that is a “sucker punch” waiting to happen….NO THANKS!!!!

      • On January 3, 2014 at 10:17 am,
        Big Al says:

        Nothing wrong with reality SD!

    • On January 3, 2014 at 11:13 am,
      Dillon says:

      Ya mean their selling your assets off to pay for their fiscal blunders!!!?
      Load the gun!?

  8. On January 3, 2014 at 9:59 am,
    eagleeye says:

    Gary, you have been quite adamant about the U.S. dollar collapsing but it would seem that you may be wrong on that call with the dollar moving up smartly over the past few days and the weekly chart looking rather bullish. I am not sure why you have been so hesitant about calling the gold bottom. Have you been burnt too many times by wrong calls?

    • On January 3, 2014 at 10:13 am,
      Gary says:

      Calling bottoms in bear markets is tough. One almost always gets whipsawed a few times. We may get whipsawed again, but it looks to me like the intermediate cycle has bottomed and held above the June low. That’s a good sign.

      I’ll say this. If allowed to trade freely, with no more middle of the night million oz. raids then the cyclical bear is over. If we start to see the raids resume then it could go lower.

      • On January 3, 2014 at 10:18 am,
        Big Al says:

        I have to agree with you Gary!

      • On January 3, 2014 at 10:33 am,
        Birdman says:

        So its still just a big conspiracy, Gary? Then why bother calling it when it is not callable?

        • On January 3, 2014 at 10:47 am,
          Big Al says:

          I think that you have to “read between the lines” Bird.

          • On January 3, 2014 at 2:58 pm,
            Birdman says:

            Al, most commodities have been in decline for a couple years right along with gold and silver. What is there between the lines that I need to know unless we assume ALL commodities are being manipulated down together at once? Why would the Fed squash grains and corn and soy and coffee and sugar for example? Just because of gold? Gary is wrong. There is NOT a conspiracy that large unless he will accept that ALL of it is a conspiracy in which case he is probably just crazy.

            You give him far too much credit in my opinion.

      • On January 3, 2014 at 1:27 pm,
        eagleeye says:

        Geez Gary, you completely ignored the US dollar issue. Slippery move. The dollar is actually looking quite strong AND gold is going up with it. That must be a puzzle to those that think the two must always be inversely correlated. This kind of behaviour is not unusual at all but a strengthening dollar sure is going to keep a lot of speculators from jumping into gold at this early stage of the rally.

        • On January 3, 2014 at 2:30 pm,
          Gary says:

          Until the dollar takes out the previous high I’m not looking for any lasting strength.

          If it’s time for gold to print an intermediate bottom then it will rally no matter what the dollar is doing priced against other currencies.

          • On January 3, 2014 at 7:47 pm,
            Al Korelin says:

            I don’t give anyone too much credit, Bird. I just listen to everyone! (As I am sure you do. Last time I checked there was / a difference between listening and believing!

  9. On January 3, 2014 at 10:09 am,
    Paul L says:

    The gold stocks are looking so weak today with gold very strong at 1239.

    • On January 3, 2014 at 10:24 am,
      Matthew says:

      You’re right, but most professionals may still be out of the office. Next week should be far more telling.

      • On January 3, 2014 at 10:25 am,
        Big Al says:

        Agreed!

  10. On January 3, 2014 at 10:19 am,
    Big Al says:

    Typical when you have two things: end of the week and a bit of (no, change that to a lot of) confusion.

  11. On January 3, 2014 at 10:37 am,
    Dick Tracy says:

    Who would have thought, I wonder if companies are retiring their bonds and moving more into the stock market in search of faster money. Never discount the nuttiness that goes on in the final thrust of a Bull Market. DT

    • On January 3, 2014 at 11:56 am,
      Birdman says:

      Exactly right DT. Just yesterday Rick was pointing out we may be at an inflection point in the 10 year. Just inches away from a change that could materially affect you if you are tied up wrong. If it goes sour there will be plenty of interest in escaping bonds and where the heck else will money then go? That is part of the reason why equities will keep rising despite falling or flat revenues. Rising interest rates will be enough to create a few cracks around the world and that spells defaults in the end. You want your money to be able to migrate across a situation of sovereign failures with minimal losses and that means you will want ownership of companies that will be better prepared to withstand a crisis intact. Obviously the risk where the market is already high (even peaking) is that you may suffer price declines at some unknown point in the future, so staying power until things return to normal is important even if it takes a few years. At the end of the day though it is far more desirable to be invested in the stock of strong companies than in weak countries or those cities and corporations at risk of defaulting. Capital wants to flow to the area of lowest risk and highest opportunity so this seems an obvious outcome other than going straight to cash or gold.

  12. On January 3, 2014 at 11:41 am,
    Bobby says:

    You guys are too much! But don’t worry your diversification should help.

    • On January 3, 2014 at 12:09 pm,
      Birdman says:

      Even diversification does not work sometimes, Bobby. Over here there was a coup many years back. The new government changed the currency on taking power thus invalidating the old currency and evaporating most of the wealth of the previous regime. To seal the deal they also nationalized most large businesses, recovered lost rights to minerals etcetera and just to ice the cake they declared private property rights invalid thus transferring all of it to the new governments control. So in other words, if you had a store of cash, land holdings or a going concern you were essentially impoverished overnight unless you were a friend of the new government. So much for diversification! The only people who got through it and carried a store of wealth from the past into the future were those holding precious metals or similar assets that were immune to confiscation. Interestingly enough there really are real world examples of why the lack of counterparty makes a difference sometimes and why assets held outside the conventional system can keep you whole after a state crisis or shift in power.

      • On January 3, 2014 at 12:45 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Saved my Grandfather’s life back in 1949 in China!

        • On January 3, 2014 at 2:13 pm,
          Birdman says:

          Yes Al. Gold and silver may only be really right once in a generation but on that sorry day they are needed you won’t want to without some. Problem is none of us knows the time or the date. But at a guess we can infer that once the world is nearing a systemic breakdown in credit and debt (major defaults in other words) it is probably wise to have a little bit for insurance. That whole counterparty risk thingy!

          • On January 3, 2014 at 3:32 pm,
            scooter says:

            Armstrong says 2015.75. Guess we’ll see..

      • On January 3, 2014 at 1:30 pm,
        eagleeye says:

        Birdman, where is “over here”?

        • On January 3, 2014 at 2:07 pm,
          Birdman says:

          Somewhere in Africa. Does not matter where. Story is the same again and again.

    • On January 3, 2014 at 12:39 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Certainly hope so Bobby!

  13. On January 3, 2014 at 12:22 pm,
    John K says:

    Comex Gold.
    12/30/13 Seeking Alpha
    “Last week we saw comex registered gold inventories drop to their lowest level ever. And the claims on each registered ounce rise to a stunning 92 owners per ounce.”

    • On January 3, 2014 at 12:45 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Holy Smokes!

      • On February 1, 2014 at 8:48 am,
        Open says:

        Wowza, problem solved like it never hanepepd.

  14. On January 3, 2014 at 12:50 pm,
    TenYear says:

    Looks like just a mild rally (so far its small) from oversold levels…there is no conviction from a volume standpoint. Too early to tell. A rally with 3 to 6 times current volume would likely be more indicative of a temporary bottom. Here is to a better year for the precious metal bulls! cheers.

  15. On January 3, 2014 at 12:59 pm,
    Stephan B. Feibish says:

    I’d assume if we have a major market selloff, gold and silver will go down too. Barring some reason like the start of a war causing the selloff. Any rally in gold and silver and I buy protection. I’d assume these two up days are caused by lack of the selling pressure caused by tax loss selling, end of year book squaring, etc.

  16. On January 3, 2014 at 1:08 pm,
    james (the lesserrr) says:

    right now gold is like a sprinter who just did a nice quarter mile in 21.3
    the real running hasn’t started yet.
    we’ve seen this before

    bottom line it is too little too late

    I am not being skeptical.
    Just refuse to dance this dance

    • On January 3, 2014 at 7:50 pm,
      Al Korelin says:

      If the music and the babes get better,I will bet you will be out there, The Greater!

  17. On January 3, 2014 at 1:17 pm,
    james (the lesserrr) says:

    Didnt Gary say the $ was unravelling just the other day?

    Here it is super strong again – this will be a big headwind for gold

    Oil also fading – this too is signaling something.

    • On January 3, 2014 at 1:28 pm,
      Dick Tracy says:

      The US dollar is having a dead cat bounce, it’s seen as the best of the worse for now but life is always fickle. DT

      • On January 3, 2014 at 7:51 pm,
        Al Korelin says:

        I am not sure that Gary’s comment should be dismissed. We will see.

  18. On January 8, 2014 at 5:12 pm,
    William says:

    The trees are running low and the Obama ink is not going to work paying China back anymore, China wants Gold and an example is there latest agreement with the USA’s friend , China and S Korea have an import export agreement and they can only use Gold or the Chinese YUAN FOR PAYMENT . No trading can be paid for with the USA WORLD CENTRAL BANKS CURRENCY AND EIGHT 8 OTHER COUNTRIES ARE SIGNING THE SAME AGREEMENT. I t is not in the media but it is as true as it gets ask about the Obama gag order with the Major Media Corp’s , this is happening now, and what is funny or ironic is China does not have any military bases in S Korea like the USA DO THE MATH THE US DOLLAR IS LOST AND SOONER THAN ONE THINKS , CHINA HAS STARTED TO CONTROL THE IMPORT EXPORT PAYMENTS WITH OUT THE USA WORLD CURRENCY. It has started and eight 8 other countries are in China’s game. Obama has buried the USA Dollar with debt. Write this day down and call you media and see what they say. It is law in China and S Korea and who protects who?