Gary Savage – Wed 8 Jan, 2014

Here is an interesting prediction.

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Featuring:
Al KorelinGary Savage

Comments:
  1. On January 8, 2014 at 9:05 am,
    Bobby says:

    Speaking of bets, al, time to pay up! (4)

    • On January 8, 2014 at 10:58 am,
      Robert says:

      I am curious . . . what was the specific bet, Bobby?

      • On January 8, 2014 at 1:41 pm,
        Bobby says:

        See below and reference to Sept 7th,

    • On January 8, 2014 at 11:29 am,
      Big Al says:

      Bobby,

      Refresh my memory and I will immediately “pay up”

      • On January 8, 2014 at 1:39 pm,
        Bobby says:

        Dec 31, 2013 END OF YEAR
        Well, this is a bet I hoped that I would not win. But Al, I will humbly accept the wonderful bottle of Red. Send me an email and I will let you know where to ship it.
        Gold 1205.50 DOWN 183.30 13%
        Silver 19.44 DOWN 4.50 19%
        DOW 16576.66 UP 1584.16 10.5% Al, you were wrong on both counts.
        In case you were wondering Mattie,
        Dow in gold dollars 284.47 UP 59.59 26.5% Mattie you were wrong as well and you got KILLED.

        On September 7, 2013 at 5:56 pm,
        Al Korelin says:
        Certainly nothing personal here, but I don’t agree gentlemen. Want to bet a bottle of rred wine with a time frame of year end?
        I say that gold will be higher and the DJIA lower by then.
        • Gold 1388.80
        • Silver 23.94
        • DOW 14992.50
        On September 7, 2013 at 6:50 pm,
        Bobby says:
        al, I am always game for a good bet. I will have the cash, you are on.

        • On January 8, 2014 at 1:43 pm,
          Bobby says:

          sorry for the reference to matti getting Killed, he later said he predicts but they are just for fun…i meant to delete it on this paste.

          • On January 9, 2014 at 12:07 pm,
            Matthew says:

            It was much EARLIER, not later, that I had said predictions are for entertainment. Ever notice that the guys who claim to be right are generally vague about what they expect? You may be sorry, but I did not get “killed” by a long shot. Predictions are not necessary for buying weakness and selling strength as the market presents each.

  2. On January 8, 2014 at 9:11 am,
    Bobby says:

    This reminds me of the parabolic rise in silver….except, there was no talk of it here.

    • On January 8, 2014 at 11:30 am,
      Big Al says:

      Sorry, I don’t understand.

      • On January 8, 2014 at 1:40 pm,
        Bobby says:

        That was a comment from todays clip on the parabolic rise in the dow.

  3. On January 8, 2014 at 9:12 am,
    Tony says:

    The end of the bull market will be start when JR mining companies start to move up dramatically as investors move out of conventional stocks and look for a higher reward and higher risk.
    When the heard follows then then things will drop.

  4. On January 8, 2014 at 9:17 am,
    Bobby says:
    • On January 8, 2014 at 11:31 am,
      Big Al says:

      Sorry again Bobby, I still don’t understand.

      • On January 8, 2014 at 1:46 pm,
        Bobby says:

        the point that i was trying to make was that WHY all the fuss NOW about parabolic rises? NOBODY on this site spotted the Parabolic rise in SILVER, and this is asset based investment site, not the MSM.

        • On January 8, 2014 at 3:36 pm,
          Big Al says:

          Thanks,

          PLEASE SEND ME AN ADDRESS TO SEND THAT BOTTLE OF WINE TO. (www.alkorelin@gmail.com)

          If you are around Vancouver, B.C. , I will personally deliver it!

          • On January 8, 2014 at 3:38 pm,
            Bobby says:

            ok Al, expect the eamail shortly

        • On January 9, 2014 at 10:45 am,
          Birdman says:

          Yes Bobby….some of us DID see that parabolic move in silver but nobody listened when we warned them it was over.

  5. On January 8, 2014 at 9:24 am,
    John Chew says:

    A good article explaining why gold is range bound. Collateral issues/gofo
    http://www.alhambrapartners.com/2014/01/07/the-golden-range/

  6. On January 8, 2014 at 9:28 am,
    Eric Crane says:

    Another day where the metals are sloppy but a lot of the mining stocks I follow are hanging in there. Well off their lows and a lot of them around unchanged now.

    Of course, the day isn’t over and will have to assess at closing prices, but for now is representative of what I have been seeing of late — some positive divergences in the miners.

    I think it illustrates that the mining stocks have been largely transferred into stronger hands at this point and the damage has already been done.

    • On January 8, 2014 at 11:32 am,
      Big Al says:

      Man, we are as of 11:32 pst taking a real beating!

  7. On January 8, 2014 at 9:35 am,
    SD Marc says:

    Agreed, Eric…the miners will give the first signal of the upcoming resumption of the secular bull market in the PM’s

  8. On January 8, 2014 at 10:00 am,
    CJV from Nebraska says:

    And now a word from a crackpot in the midwest…..

    I seldom write into the forum as there are people far more eloquent than I, but I think there is another pictur to consider.
    I’ve been reading your posts with interest over the last few days. Those regarding China backing the Yuan with gold and all of this about potential market drops and is there manipulation or not. I just have to add my 2 cents (depends if they are real copper or just zinc).
    It is my understanding that there is a proposal coming out of the IMF which is intended to rebalance all world currencies based on net assets. The US and nearly all other countries have agreed to this change. From what I gather they will be pushing this proposal sometime before the end of the first quarter with implementation coming by the end of the second quarter.
    Eric Sprott and many others on your site have been warning us about all of the gold moving from the west to the east. China is positioning the Yuan to be the strongest currency which can serve as the new world reserve against which all others will be rebalanced. The discussion recently about Germany repatriating it’s gold is preparing their currency ready for this event. The whole discussion about melting and purifying bars to meet a new London Standard is yet another preparation for this event. How will the US dollar look after we net out our enormous national debt and we find that all of the gold we thought we had is gone or belongs to someone else?
    Our central bank and federal government manipulate the stock market through the Fed’s Plunge Protection Team and flooding money into leveraged accounts and derivatives. This is what is pushing the market higher and at the least…prevents it from falling too much. A forced rebalancing of the currency will stop this practice and I agree with Gary Savage that we will see the market decline.
    The reason many on this forum hold physical precious metals is exactly what is coming when this rebalancing hits main street. There just won’t be any PMs to be found and the guys like Al K with the big underground vaults won’t be selling.
    My children have been watching the old TV series, “The Waltons.” If you don’t know of it, it was set in the US Great Depression. We always think about how tough people had it in the 1930s. Those people survived by hard work and doing for themselves. What these people salvaged went to my parent’s generation. My parents handed me a country where I could scratch out a living and feed myself. By this time next year I don’t believe there will be anything to hand to my children. I pray that the Good God have mercy and come to our aid.

    Now that the NSA knows where I stand…this Crackpot better .sign off….
    PS…Al…sorry to let the cat out of the bag about your vault….

    • On January 8, 2014 at 10:56 am,
      Robert says:

      Hello, Nebraska –

      Nicely-worded and reasoned comments. I enjoyed your analysis and projections. You said, ” … From what I gather they will be pushing this proposal sometime before the end of the first quarter with implementation coming by the end of the second quarter.”

      How solid is your authority or source on this? If it IS a high likelihood, it fits with Gary Savage’s recommendation to buy long-term QQQ $83 puts (his are for Jan 2016 … mine are $84 Sept 2014.) However, I have been amaze over the past year by the ability of the Fed and Company to levitate the markets, and am not so sure they cannot keep doing this for another year. I will enjoy any other thoughts you have.

      • On January 8, 2014 at 11:38 am,
        CJV from Nebraska says:

        The guy I heard this from said he was reading out of IMF board minutes and some of the things he cited have been talked about over the last year by President Obama and more recently in the New York Times by former British PM Gordon Brown. A lot of this stuff seems to be viewed as boring government gobbledy-gook and is buried in the major newspapers. It will be front page stuff until the SHTF and reality sinks in.
        Heck, China has been openly calling for an end to the US Dollar for a while now and they are coming out more strongly all the time. The fact that countries all over the world are no longer trading based on US Dollars and all of the other currency war gyrations will force the change sooner than later. The IMF wants to be in control of the transition. By frontrunning and directing things they will control the game. The scary thing is that we will have an extra-national body dictating economic and fiscal policy for every soverign nation.

    • On January 8, 2014 at 10:58 am,
      SD Marc says:

      CJV,
      Written with MUCH heart-felt meaning and GOOD intentions. I know because I can FEEL the way you write. It is humble and too the point. It is spot on. LET ME say this: IF IT WALKS LIKE A DUCK…IT IS A DUCK!! What do I mean? Well, you just listed several things going on in the macro environment that signal something is in the air. That change is the a ‘repositioning in the world chess game of geopolitics and macro – financial infrastructure – plan accordingly – I think you are. Great job..IMHO!

      • On February 1, 2014 at 10:46 am,
        Prinses says:

        Thninkig like that shows an expert at work

    • On January 8, 2014 at 11:35 am,
      Big Al says:

      That CJV is a great comment.

      Whoever told you that you are not eloquent, is absolutely dead wrong!

      As a point of interest, I don’t have a big vault. (Unfortunately!)

    • On January 9, 2014 at 11:01 am,
      Birdman says:

      Do you have a link to the proposal you are referencing Nebraska?

  9. On January 8, 2014 at 10:02 am,
    clay says:

    Out of topic but still important for people to know. Reports and videos are coming out on Radiation readings from beaches in California, attached article. http://www.hmbreview.com/news/experts-say-beach-radiation-unrelated-to-fukushima/article_d3bb5b14-77ea-11e3-a37b-001a4bcf887a.html

    “On Monday, Weiss carried a Geiger counter in each hand for a second survey of Surfer’s Beach. As he descended to the waterline, the readings on his gadgets climbed. He tested various spots: the side of the bluffs and the white sand closest to the waterline, both registering levels that were high but not suspiciously so as far as he was concerned. But when he placed the sensors down near a line of black silt along the back of the beach, the meters on both his gadgets spiked. The counters registered about 415 counts per minute.”

    The radiation is coming from the heavy minerals which concentrate on all beaches at high water mark in the Upper parts of the beach. These minerals are very dense, resistant to weathering and consist mostly of spinels, magnetite, zircon, monazite and even gold and platinum. This it very common on West Coast of the Americas. Monazite is a natural mineral containing rare earth elements including Thorium which is radioactive. Zircon in the Western parts of the Americas usually contain small amounts of Uranium and Thorium termed Metamictic Zircon. These minerals have always been on beaches everywhere for billions of years and is natural but can still be dangerous just like working in a Uranium mine.

  10. On January 8, 2014 at 10:19 am,
    Bobby says:
    • On January 8, 2014 at 11:41 am,
      Big Al says:

      I believe that anyone who knowingly breaks the law is a traitor. How could he/she be any different?

      • On January 8, 2014 at 1:49 pm,
        Bobby says:

        I agree Al. I have seen this run rampant in both the Police and Fire Departments in California. Finally someone is looking into these frauds.

        • On January 8, 2014 at 3:38 pm,
          Big Al says:

          As they should, Bobby!

    • On February 2, 2014 at 9:48 am,
      Rahmat says:

      FireFox 2.0 is out. It supports local re-syncing. If you don’t use more than one minahce then it gets the job done. You can also re-open a tab you may have closed using shift+ctrl+t. I recommend giving FireFox 2.0 a shot. It has a few nifty features and have a slightly more polished UI.-Aaron

  11. On January 8, 2014 at 12:32 pm,
    eagleeye says:

    What does Gary mean when is referring to the FED not allowing the market to correct? Is the FED playing the markets like the rest of us?

    • On January 8, 2014 at 3:39 pm,
      Big Al says:

      My understanding is that the Fed does not want to see the conventional markets plummet downward as this would completely erode any level of confidence and cause another Great Depression.

      I am sure that Gary will comment on this.

      • On January 8, 2014 at 7:21 pm,
        Gary says:

        Al,
        Exactly right. The Fed has to keep the parabolic move in stocks rising. When it collapses it will take the global economy with it just like the 29 bubble popping destroyed the world economy.

  12. On January 8, 2014 at 5:00 pm,
    Silverbug Dave says:

    Silver had its parabolic move in 2011 to $49.75. Now it’s barely $20. No rescuing it Gary? What do you think?
    As for conventional stocks, maybe they will crash.
    Sure the S&P 500 looks to be going out onto a Wily Coyote precipice if you look at the stockcharts weekly chart of $SPX.
    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=$SPX

    However, today’s closing price is only 18.6% above the all time high closing price of 6 years ago on 31 Oct 2007 and only 20.3% above the closing high of 1527.46 on 24 March 2000 more than 13 years ago. So is it a bubble? Certainly possible, because it is a huge megaphone pattern showing ever increasing uncedrtainty in price over the past 20 years. Same for the Dow to gold ratio’s megaphone pattern of the past 85 years, with ever increasing wild swings in the relative bull and bear markets.

    Is it a bubble? So it is very overbought indeed, but why should it crash again? It has already crashed by around 50% twice in the past 13 years.

    Gold topped in 2011 at 2.25x its 1980 high. Now it has crashed 40% and it is now 1.44x its 1980 high. Hmmmmmmmmmm. Of course, silver’s parabolic move barely reached its 1980 high but silver more than doubled in 8 months between September 2010 and May 2011. This move in the S&P is not of that magnitude at all and also is nowhere near like the Nikkei in 1989 or the Nasdaq in 2000.
    It’s a bit unlikely for the S&P500 to have a real bubble only a matter of months after it made a new all time high after a long correction.
    I would say a sever and scary correction is needed from where weare now. Maybe 33% to take it back to 1200 at a wild guess, unless the whole financial system unravels, maybe that would be a good buy point for a real bubble. Just IMHO.

    • On January 8, 2014 at 5:00 pm,
      Silverbug Dave says:

      It’s looking more and more like 1982/83 for gold and the S&P right now.

    • On January 8, 2014 at 5:17 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Silver had its parabolic move in 2011 to $49.75. Now it’s barely $20. No rescuing it Gary?

      Gary is not talking about rescuing the precious metals but rescuing the conventional stocks.

    • On January 8, 2014 at 6:04 pm,
      Matthew says:

      $50 in 2011 is nowhere near $50 in 1980. Measured against real goods/services/assets, the 2011 price was nothing.

  13. On January 9, 2014 at 11:22 am,
    Daffy Duck says:

    Gold is about to take off!

  14. On January 9, 2014 at 11:48 am,
    Daffy Duck says:

    I just got word that everyone should put every dollar they have in GOLD right at this moment. Right now. It’s a spring getting ready to SPLODE! It’s gonna run HUGE@!

  15. On January 9, 2014 at 12:30 pm,
    Daffy Duck says:

    Darn it folks! Gold is bottoming! Take off is happening. It’s happening right now!