Al's Insights – Sat 11 Jan, 2014

Al and Gary, On the Record

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Featuring:
Al KorelinGary Savage

Comments:
  1. On January 11, 2014 at 12:06 pm,
    HEAVYHITTER says:

    All I’m saying honorable BIG AL and I do agree with Gary…..we are going up and there is
    no way that the 1400’s are not on the radar screen. But the possibility of steep fast corrections along the way are not out of the question.

    WE ARE ON OUR WAY UP TO THE 1400’S. After that we could be in trouble. We must get
    through 1550 to regain the bull in gold.

    If what Gary is saying we crash in the spoos S&P…then that’s what might take our metals down again.

    I’M A BULL BUT VERY CAUTIOUS AND WOULD RATHER TAKE MY PROFITS ALONG THE WAY.

    If gold does not rally huge …like 50 or a 100 points I will make as much money if not more than buying and holding.

    The way our management leaders can take gold down is through another liquidity crisis maybe using the stock market. FOOD FOR THOUGHT AND ALL THE POSSIBLITIES.

  2. On January 11, 2014 at 12:10 pm,
    HEAVYHITTER says:

    Adding to my comment ment to say 50 or 100 points in gold in a day.

    • On January 11, 2014 at 8:36 pm,
      Al Korelin says:

      Thanks Heavy

      • On January 30, 2014 at 12:53 am,
        Olga says:

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  3. On January 11, 2014 at 12:22 pm,
    clay says:

    Take look at inventories in London and NY market where they manipulate price. Backwardation in London and all time lows of Dealer Inventory in Comex. http://srsroccoreport.com/big-comex-gold-withdrawals-record-low-dealer-level/big-comex-gold-withdrawals-record-low-dealer-level/

    They don’t want default but they don’t want people to have gold, so the question is not what they can do but what they will do, and that is truly frightening.

    As per charts, all indexes have completed the 40 year megaphone pattern at the top trend line. Dow looks like it will go down to 6,000 or lower in next 12 months, unless they do something a million time worse.

    Sentiment is the KEY regardless of what they do, because they control markets and people through MOPE, if they loose control of sentiment they loose everything. From my perspective I see increasing number of one time “MOPED” Up Muppets beginning to question and are looking for other explanations. Whether this is the phenomena of the “100th Monkey” or deductive logical thinking, it is inevitable in any case and happens kind of like what Earnest Hemingway said about going broke, “slowly at first and then all at once”. Very difficult to pin the exact time of the all at once, but the slow part has gone on a long time now, more than a decade, so the all at once is probably coming within months not years.

    • On January 11, 2014 at 12:43 pm,
      HEAVYHITTER says:

      They use debt to create liquidity crisis to control prices. Maybe thats gold and many other things including food. We have record amounts of debt and there go the dominos. Its like shooting fish in a barrel.

    • On January 11, 2014 at 8:39 pm,
      Al Korelin says:

      Yes definitely, loose control of sentiment and it is all over!

    • On January 31, 2014 at 8:45 pm,
      Sana says:

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    • On February 2, 2014 at 1:15 pm,
      Marcin says:

      I have been so beiwdlered in the past but now it all makes sense!

  4. On January 11, 2014 at 1:22 pm,
    HEAVYHITTER says:

    They used real estate in that last bubble to crack prices and send everything into a death spiral. Now stocks are leveraged record amounts of margin used and soaring
    prices. They have the pin and will use it shorting stocks making billions. That’s exactly what they will do and a new Fed Chairman in office uncertainty abounds. The cycle plays out will if it happens gold tops about the 1400’s in 8 weeks and stocks doing the
    same. Sell off starts and dominos fall taking gold down to its final lows around 1000 or
    so plus or minus. If it gets bad enough 700 gold all in the next 6 months. Stocks will have a crash type decline because of all the leverage.

    THERE’S A FAIRLY HIGH ODDS OF A BLACK SWAN COMING TO A THEATER NEAR YOU.

    DO THE MATH….hay days shorting stocks for the very elite…perfect set up with high record amounts of debt for a full domino effect.

    ALL VERY REAL POSSIBLITIES. GOLD WILL BE CAUGHT IN THE LIQUIDITY TRAP POSSIBLY AND IT GETS ABOVE 1550 THEN MAYBE WE SEE THE BIG BUBBLE STAGE FOR GOLD.

    GOLD COULD SURPRISE BUT WOULD NOT BET TOO MUCH ON IT. WATCH 1550 HOLDS.

    • On January 11, 2014 at 8:54 pm,
      Al Korelin says:

      I am personally betting on a BIG BLACK SWAN!

      • On January 12, 2014 at 8:22 am,
        clay says:

        It need not be a Black Swan at this point, it can easily be something small like a Black Bird which which you can see almost constantly. Remember this world is run on the PhD standard and can’t see Bubbles, Forward Guidance, balances and so on. They consistently have the worlds worst economic track records, covering up their terrible mistakes with increased money printing, fraud and crimes which would put any average person in jail for life. It does not take a Thunderclap to start an avalanche, it can be something as small as a single snowflake. That’s why if you see a terrible hazard coming, it is best not to try and predict the timing or what might trigger it, but much wiser to prepare well in advance and avoid positions which the cataclysm will destroy. Remember the wise words of Jesse Livermore, Be right and stick tight and don’t be shaken out of your core convictions.

        • On January 12, 2014 at 8:53 am,
          Al Korelin says:

          Great point by Livermore!!

        • On January 12, 2014 at 10:09 am,
          SD Marc says:

          Clay, GREAT comments and common sense very much needed

  5. On January 11, 2014 at 2:18 pm,
    b says:

    What is the “ratchet” or “olfa knife” noise?
    Maybe you could have a contest, who ever guesses correctly as to what it is wins a free sibscription to “korelin economics” for a year.

    • On January 11, 2014 at 8:56 pm,
      Al Korelin says:

      Ever hear of Cutco Cutlery?

      Times are tough so I am knocking on a lot of doors!

  6. On January 11, 2014 at 2:20 pm,
    b says:

    I like Garys thinking as he includes “manipulation”, I noticed there are other TA guys saying they want to see a 1268 # or around there, I do believe I heard that from Gary first.

  7. On January 11, 2014 at 2:32 pm,
    Dick Tracy says:

    How do you decide what the value of certain stocks are worth, once the value of the US market is upset how do you determine what a fair price for facebook or twitter is. These are matters that haven’t been addressed but will be once the selling begins, and if you have noticed anything about The TSX and The TSX-V the selling can go on for years without regard to value. We all know how the herd reacts and initially value will come into play but very soon it will be a rout, in my opinion. DT

    • On January 11, 2014 at 8:56 pm,
      Al Korelin says:

      I agree!

  8. On January 11, 2014 at 2:44 pm,
    Dick Tracy says:

    I read that Zuckerberg was selling a lot of his shares in Facebook, I would be willing to bet he has been advised to do so. DT

    • On January 11, 2014 at 2:56 pm,
      Dick Tracy says:

      This sounds like a simple analogy but there are a lot of people invested in the market who have never talked to anyone that lived during the 1930’s and they have only known good times and trying to understand even simple investing for most people is a mugs game. Most money is made on manipulation and this takes a certain savvy to even understand this concept. DT

      • On January 11, 2014 at 3:07 pm,
        Dick Tracy says:

        Just look at the time and expertise Al and Gary have spent trying to figure out if we are at an intermediate bottom in just the gold market. DT

        • On January 12, 2014 at 10:13 am,
          SD Marc says:

          DT,
          Whenever you are in San Diego, get in touch with me…you deserve a drink of your favorite libation or two!!

          • On January 12, 2014 at 2:36 pm,
            Dick Tracy says:

            Hi Marc, the same for you if you come to Toronto, my DAD loved San Diego and he bought a condominium there in the 1980’s, also I had relatives in I believe Long Beach but I’m not sure and now they are gone. DT

      • On January 11, 2014 at 8:58 pm,
        Al Korelin says:

        I have a number of friends who simply follow the news. I feel sorry for them!

  9. On January 11, 2014 at 3:29 pm,
    HEAVYHITTER says:

    Anyone have a clue what the Fed will do with $4T. in treasuries on their balance sheet. I dont think inflation is their plan or a collapsing dollar. They need another liquidity crisis and deflation to unload it creating fear into treasuries.

    WHAT IS THE END GAME AND WILL A GREAT DEFLATION COME FIRST BEFORE HYPERINFLATION.

    For 30 yesrs or more off and on have heard hyperinflation was around the corner.

    John Williams says this year. Last year and the yesr before. Sinclair another one…and a perma gold bull.

    HOWEVER ,WHAT IS THE FED GOING TO DO WITH $4T. IN TREASURIES.

    I can almost certainly guarantee it won’t be used for handy wipes.

    • On January 11, 2014 at 4:30 pm,
      franky says:

      THE NEW WORLD ORDER ELECTRONIC CURRENCY ! 4 T DAY NEED MORE ! OK ! FRANKY !

    • On January 11, 2014 at 9:00 pm,
      Al Korelin says:

      Of course not, because the real answer is toilet paper!

    • On January 12, 2014 at 11:43 am,
      Lawrence says:

      To be fair to John WIlliams, he did predict hyper-inflation in the last couple of years. However, his time frame was 2016-2020 not last year. Now he predicts the hyper-inflation tp start later this year due to increased FED easing. I feel you have taken his words out of context. I have great respect for John Williams and do not take his words lightly. Even though no body can predict the futrue but he has the best statistics. I feel he is a very honest and objective person.

  10. On January 11, 2014 at 4:41 pm,
    franky says:

    THE ONLY THING LIFT STANDING WILL BY GOLD !!!!!!!

    • On January 11, 2014 at 9:01 pm,
      Al Korelin says:

      And silver, Franky

  11. On January 11, 2014 at 7:06 pm,
    Dennis F. Brophy says:

    A program that I listen to when ever its on is this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6ifLtHc6IE its concerning `The Economy Is A Complete Illusion and It`s Ready To Collapse` – – Episode 259 its 36:24 minutes in length. Its discussing the Fake unemployment numbers, retail sales tanking, bubbles in real estate, companies all across the country laying off people in droves, stores closing everywhere, VS the propaganda that the government/central brankers/corporate media is pushing that we are in a recovery is just plain BS. The big banksters are telling people that gold is no where to be, yet they are buying physical gold as fast as they can get it. 2+2 doesn`t add up as 15. So on and so forth.

    • On January 11, 2014 at 9:02 pm,
      Al Korelin says:

      Dennis, Seems to me that is old news to all of us!

  12. On January 11, 2014 at 8:57 pm,
    HEAVYHITTER says:

    If gold and the general equities rise over the next several weeks with commodities I’m very sure will go along for the ride players will be especially very well leveraged in equities and now with a run up in the metals players will also be leveraged too. Once the dominos are set off in motion players will be deleveraging all the positions across the board and you boys know the rest of the story. With all this high margin debt now in equities its going to set off lots of panic selling in all asset classes.

    ONLY WAY TO WIN IS TO BE ON YOUR TOES EVERYDAY PAYING ATTENTION TO THE EVENTS IN THE MARKETS AND BE READY TO BUY GOLD. Its a game of patience I believe
    after the dust settles in the event of a liquidity crisis be the best time to buy for long term.

    The best plan is to preserve what you have. Being able to pay for necessities than risking that too and then not having hardly anything. And for what….to buy things that are not really important ……new cars…etc. .losing money you need. Gold investing is probably the most brutal and difficult investments. LOOK AROUND….WHOS BEEN ABLE TO SAY I GOT RICH IN GOLD. Just be careful….there are a lot of dreamers on here. If things get bad losing their job or business goes down…first thing sold is their metal investments.

    • On January 11, 2014 at 9:05 pm,
      Al Korelin says:

      Hate to sound like a broken record Heavy, but it is all about time frame!

      • On January 11, 2014 at 9:53 pm,
        HEAVYHITTER says:

        Yes Al and maybe interest rates rise over the months ahead AND THERE SHE …BLOWS.

        Just another day in paradise…huh…Al.

        Lucky for us we know where the real paradise is. I’m looking forward to it !!

  13. On January 11, 2014 at 10:18 pm,
    bj says:

    Gary, it seems that going into the year end tax selling the banks could only knock the PMs down temporarily, but couldn’t keep it down. With each successive slam, they are got less and less ban for the buck ins both the duration and depth.

    As I suggested before, I think they’ve tripped all the sell stops of the ‘honest investors’, and now all that’s left are day-traders and hedge funds, each trying to front run the other. I just don’t see much commitment to the down side going forward. Knock on wood.

  14. On January 12, 2014 at 7:37 am,
    Fred says:

    What about the simple demand/supply equation for gold itself? if the COMEX, LBMA, GLD run out of the physical then that alone could run gold price up and up……..don’t need a stock collapse or interest rate increase for that to happen…….it is curious that they are redeeming the Sprott Gold Physical to also meet Chinese/Indian/Russian demand.

    • On January 12, 2014 at 8:57 am,
      Al Korelin says:

      Simple supply/demand equation? Common man, you are talking common sense. Blasphmy!

      Darn, bit my tongue again!

  15. On January 12, 2014 at 5:33 pm,
    johnny knoxville says:

    The bull market in GOLD is back. $GOLD $2000 in 2014!

  16. On January 13, 2014 at 10:50 am,
    chris andersen says:

    Just read on Bloomberg that Ford Motor Co is moving into bonds and out of the market. This may become general and take the fed off the hook! Low yield will attract a lot of dough but what will the $US be worth at redemption time?