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Rick’s Friday comments

Big Al
January 31, 2014

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51 Comments
    Jan 31, 2014 31:47 AM

    what does everyone think of this article? these guys are one of the bigger ones in the bus. do you think it’s because the metals are so tight they just can’t get the metal to the people? just no metal too be had? http://about.ag/tulving.htm dwj

      Jan 31, 2014 31:42 PM

      Thanks dw. That’s definitely not great news for the Tulving Company. We have heard of bullion delivery delays a lot in the past, however this one also sounds like it could be a scam. Either way not good for the people who gave them money

        Jan 31, 2014 31:51 PM

        TULVING….ATTEMPTED TO DEFRAUD ME OUT OF OVER

        ONE HUNDRED THOUSAND DOLLARS MANY YEARS AGO.

        HA…that guy who took over from his father…..IS A LYING CHEATING CROOK

    PF
    Jan 31, 2014 31:03 AM

    I don’t get why you guys are so negative on the conventional stock market. The s&p 500 p/e ratio is ’bout 17-18. Compared historically that makes the market only slightly overvalued.

      Jan 31, 2014 31:38 AM

      The Shiller PE is near 25. It is a much more useful indicator.
      http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/

        har
        Jan 31, 2014 31:31 PM

        Lots of great dividend stocks sub 10 PE.

          Jan 31, 2014 31:50 PM

          Are they based on GAAP earnings? Most companies have used NON-GAAP for the last 12 years as well as boosting EPS using cheap credit for stock buybacks.

            Jan 31, 2014 31:06 PM

            Our government also uses NON-GAAP by the way…

      Jan 31, 2014 31:55 PM

      Lot of them putt there Proud. Please pay attention!

      Jan 31, 2014 31:55 PM

      Look at the real numbers!

    Jan 31, 2014 31:04 AM

    Wow! Bob Moriarty stopped trading in Canada with his 321Gold recommendation this morning.
    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty013114.html

      Jan 31, 2014 31:15 AM

      Looks like Moriarity and O’Leary could be bosom buddies.

      Kevin O’Leary says 3.5 billion people living in poverty is ‘fantastic news’

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pege6GUNaHM

        Jan 31, 2014 31:35 AM

        Wow. That is a very depressing commentary. I don’t think Oleary has any idea what a dollar a day incomes look like for the poorest couple billion but I can tell you it is really, really bad. Some of the restaurants over here that are popular with the wealthy and foreigners sell plastic bags of uneaten food out the backdoors to the destitute. They basically just scrape off whatever remains on the dishes after a meal and put it all in a barrel and then bag it up for resale later. All mixed together. You would not feed it to your dog. Kevins comments verge on bizzarre.

          Jan 31, 2014 31:49 PM

          I agree Birdman, O’Leary’s comments are bizarre.

          Jan 31, 2014 31:00 PM

          Why don’t people over there just help. If they don’t that is bullshit

            Feb 01, 2014 01:12 AM

            Just too many poor Al. The meals I was referring to actually come from the dishwashers and kitchen staff who are so poorly paid (20 to 25 dollars a month for full time work) that managers just tolerate them trying to make extra money selling used food. A bag costs 15 cents. It is not like business policy or anything like that but the practice is widespread as there are no social safety nets for anyone and plenty of needy. Some are bitterly poor. Old rotten clothes, no shoes and homeless but fortunately it is not as many as you might imagine who fall that low. In the US the same people might be dumpster divers so we have them too. There are no dumpsters here though and even if there were nothing of value is ever inside one. This is a case of why social inequity is really going to be one of the biggest challenges in the future. Income and wealth disparities have reached almost criminal proportions and the evidence for it cannot be denied.

        b
        Jan 31, 2014 31:25 PM

        I liked Olearys thinking of mining companies but that comment was utter arrogance and moronic. imo
        I think he just got his name on the list for when the guillotines comes out.

          Jan 31, 2014 31:37 PM

          Good one. Put him on the invitation list.

            Jan 31, 2014 31:22 PM

            Kevin is a predatory capitalist, I don’t know whether anyone has seen him on The Sharks Tank or Dragons Den, he is brutal and relishes his role, in fact Mark Cuban calls him The “Undertaker”.

            Jan 31, 2014 31:31 PM

            There is a thin line between theater and reality.

        Jan 31, 2014 31:48 PM

        “Celebratory” is a horrible way to answer that question.

      Jan 31, 2014 31:31 PM

      And this comment from Bob puts him in the same room with the Oleary commentary Irwin submitted below. Bob writes….”People who don’t know me well don’t realize that I am a big fan of economies collapsing. I would find it the most wonderful thing in the world if the US Banking system shut down tomorrow and half the population of America was unemployed.”…….

      Well ain’t that great Bob. Totally insane remarks from a person your age who should know better. Pretty Christian of you too. You do realize that income inequality was one of the top agendas at Davos this year. Unemployment issues are a festering wound on most of the dominant developed economies but the trickle down to the Third World is even more distressing. And you had better believe that this will come to a head in time. Capitalism is great and all but the level of inequity has become so pronounced it will lead to both social unrest and a political crisis if it cannot be contained. Hungry people are also dangerous people. We all love a great investment opportunity Bob but we need to show heart and compassion too.

        Jan 31, 2014 31:01 PM

        Thanks Birdman;

        It was that sentence from Christian Bob that reminded me of the O’Leary clip. Now I know that O’Leary says the things he does just to get attention and to get sweet-young-thang riled up .. but I still never could stand the guy anyway.

          Jan 31, 2014 31:43 PM

          Makes two of us Irwin. His comments were horrible.

        Jan 31, 2014 31:03 PM

        I completely agree with you Bird !

    PF
    Jan 31, 2014 31:05 AM

    The “punk” numbers that Rick refers to with Apple were also record quarterly earnings.

    Jan 31, 2014 31:17 AM

    It is a Friday, guys.
    Gold usually gets hit on a friday……no big deal.

    Jan 31, 2014 31:24 AM

    O’Lesry’s an ass. And speaking as someone who worked for Oxfam in Oxford itself (a lifetime ago,it seems now) it has extreme Socialists running it. (I got into trouble for criticizing Harold Wilson, their “God”, at the time)
    OXFAM does great work, though at low overhead, and I still make contributions.

    Jan 31, 2014 31:28 AM

    Those are great observations on golds behavior since the year began Rick and I do agree. Gold looks to be functioning as a fear trade and has been stair stepping up as equities have been declining. So bad news for stocks is good news for precious metals. I don’t expect it to carry on too long though although I have been wrong before. The S&P was appraoching major resistance again today so we might know fairly soon how this will all play out but certainly we must consider that being short stocks and long gold might turn out the be the trade for this spring. Agree with Cory too though that I sure would not want to see a sudden collapse in markets. What a disaster that would be.

      Jan 31, 2014 31:43 AM

      PRINT…PRINT…PRINT $$$$$$

      Jan 31, 2014 31:06 PM

      Hey Birdman…..I value your opionion Man…..

      Yep…just replying to your other post not here…… on another forum

      BUT YA……the metals like you said maybe goiing up for the ..WRONG REASONS.

      I KNOW MAN……wrong reasons for the….END GAME.

      WHATS COMING IS NOT WORTH PROFITING FROM P.M.’s

      So what do you do. PLAY THE GAME UNTIL THE END.

      What choice do we have.

      You have been turning bullish. You see the writing on the wall.

      Like you said for the wrong reasons…..

      Thats why I dont have any faith in this fallin world. ITS GOING TO END BADLY

        Jan 31, 2014 31:23 PM

        Got to keep playing HH. I agree with you that there will be trouble down the road. We cannot avoid a collision with reality eventually. Both Doc and Rick alluded to a recent article by Lacy Hunt discussing the money multiplier and velocity and how those will have inevitable repercussions. It is a good article that also touches on savings and long term interest rates and puts some perspective on the big picture. You should read it if you are worried. It will help you have a few extra sleepless nights.

        Lately you might also have heard me say I am feeling a little more optimistic on the economy. I guess those comments need to be kept in perspective because they relate only to the current year. The larger theme is enough to give any of us who are watching a bad case of indigestion and ulcers though.

        A shit storm is brewing. Worry is legitimate in such cases and caution needs to be exercised when investing. We really cannot afford to squander what time we have to get our financial houses in order before the chickens come home to roost.

        While I believe precious metals may well prove to be a good choice in protecting our nest eggs I certainly would not go all-in. We must also remember to eliminate debts, start accumulating cash and make strategic reductions in expenses or reallocate for a better outcome.

        I guess that just means being diversified and it is one of Al’s themes here on the show that I appreciate most. Fact is that none of know how the future will play out nor how authorities may respond if another financial crisis were to erupt. If you follow Bob Prechter for example you will know he actually advises against gold ownership as it too will fall steeply during the initial stages of a deflation spiral.

        Perhaps this is what makes investing so fascinating. We have a lot of terrific minds all working on the same problems and yet coming to dramatically different conclusions. But who to believe and who to follow? I like the technical guys personally because they mostly do a good job of remaining aloof from the emotional aspects of the discussions and just stick to the facts they are analyzing.

        In the coming months and years I anticipate we will see tremendous upheaval around the globe. Early signs are already being manifest. The issue of income inequality will certainly be amongst the problems that the world will be addressing and this is perhaps at the core of problems now developing. There are serious inequities even in developed countries. Some see this as a result of corruption and political nepotism but I tend to think it is more a function of organically grown trends that began developing when times were much rosier and so our defenses were down.

        One of the reasons I often mention Africa on this forum is because it is so positive here. There is a genuine sense of optimism that does not convey easily on the written page. People are poor but they feel hopeful and it is perhaps a sign of the youthfulness of this part of the world. The bullishness amongst the investment class and elite is in startling contrast to the mood back home. You cannot go to a coffee shop, turn on the TV or read a paper without picking up on the vibes. It is like they have the world by the tail and everyone knows it. No crying about being poor either. The attitude is that problems can be surmounted. Everyone wants a better life.

        Anyway, I do share some of your optimism for gold and silver but a little voice in the back of my head keeps warning me to keep some balance in dividing up the dollars between the choices on offer. Between a home, savings for retirement, autos and other assets, stocks, bonds and what have you it is just more prudent to divvy up the pie and not get too enthralled by one single thing.

        My own philosophy is to keep PM’s to 10 or 15% maximum. That is insurance. It is also dead money while you store it. But then again the house is not a great investment in some respects because just like a boat it costs money to keep it floating through the year!

          Jan 31, 2014 31:56 PM

          Sorry HH. Forgot the link to Lacy Hunt you might like to read:

          Hoisington Investment Management – Quarterly Review and Outlook – Fourth Quarter 2013
          http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article44183.html

          Jan 31, 2014 31:59 PM

          Great commentary Birdman. You really put a lot into it.

          You are a valuable asset to this forum. AAAA PLUS AND

          TWO BIG THUMBS UP.

          Catch you on……The Rebound………yep …your ducks are lined up good

          NO GUARANTEES OF ANYTHING.

          Still…………..I’M…….A SUPER BULL……..

          and stubborn……I guess I will let you know when I …PULL MY HORNS IN…..HA

          after I sell of coarse. lol

          Jan 31, 2014 31:02 PM

          Thanks for your comments Birdman! You bring up a lot of great points that people need to take seriously.

          I posted a full response back on the Grandich interview regarding the gold market and Africa.

            Jan 31, 2014 31:15 PM

            Thanks Cory. Thanks HH. I also appreciate your posts.

          Jan 31, 2014 31:09 PM

          Your comment about the storm is very true.

        Jan 31, 2014 31:06 PM

        I agree because it could end very badly!

    Jan 31, 2014 31:16 PM

    I agree with your analysis Al that the problem should have been fixed years ago. What is starting to happen is a loss of confidence.
    To believe that the economy is improving substansialy is a fairy tale. Just look at the number of people on food stamps. The government cuts back foodstamps and Walmart misses earnings.
    The indicators the Fed is using is a crock.Once again the Fed has engineered a financial mess for all of us who aren’t in the 1% to pay.

      Jan 31, 2014 31:04 PM

      I would say the loss of confidence has been happening for many years now. Interesting connection between cutting food stamps and Walmart missing earnings.

        Jan 31, 2014 31:34 PM

        Agree about the confidence.The confidence in question now is the earnings from emerging markets. We are starting to see cracks ie. usd/jpn yen. Also money going into domestic utilities.

    Jan 31, 2014 31:25 PM

    With financial collapse as we are going into what will put us into

    WORLD WAR III

    We are faced with a world holocaust that few understand thats coming

    So the profits too from the gold investments will most likely go up in flames

    LIKE I ADVOCATED…..WHAT CHOICE DO WE HAVE BUT PLAY THE GAME.

    Without the $$$$ you can’t eat, give or do anything. Gold…there is no choice

    Jan 31, 2014 31:49 PM

    We are also moving …..quickly…..into a one world currency.

    YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED……GOLD WILL BE RESET

    When it happens gold will be too late. GOLD BUGS WILL BE VERY RICH

    After the reset nothing will change much for the average joe.

    ITS WHAT COMES LATER…….many months…..

    FULL ECONOMIC COLLAPSE. …..

    Jan 31, 2014 31:54 PM

    The new three G economy? Gold,guns and grub.

      Jan 31, 2014 31:58 PM

      Well…no…..the 4 ..g’s

      The very most inportant

      GOD …….numerono ..number one…..priority

    Jan 31, 2014 31:11 PM

    Not only that our problems stem from removing God from society.

    HISTORY PROVES THROUGH OUT THOUSANDS OF YEARS

    OUR LORD GOD…..WILL NOT BE MOCKED

    Man has become very foolish in his worldly ways.

    Thinking he’s wise in the world ignoring God and living in sin.

    THEN FAILING TO REPENT ENDING UP IN THE ABUSO…GUYANA

    for all of enternity in the lake of fire. There is no turning back either.

    Jan 31, 2014 31:11 PM

    Agreed.

      Jan 31, 2014 31:39 PM

      Even the syrian crisis there was devine intervention from God.

      That would have been the start of the tribulation. All the players
      Were in place. Great minds said we barely escaped that.

      Now we have all these major signs and people still would rather
      Believe all the worlds lies.

      Now we have the worlds finances that …..will crater…..thats written in
      Gods Holy Word.

      One world lesder snd government quickly moving into place.

      GODS RIGHT AGAIN…..unfolding before sll these blind eyes.

      WHO REFUSE TO WANT TO SEE….. too much in love with their
      Money, things of this world and this evil world.

      BUT GOD WILL BE RIGHT BECAUSE THIS TIME HE’S NOT GOING
      TO DESTROY IT BY FLOOD…BUT BY FIRE.

      DON’T WANT TO BE HERE…..its coming very soon.

    Jan 31, 2014 31:02 PM

    HEAVY, iyo will the gold reset be done over a weekend as a one shot deal by the main governments and their central banks OR will the reset be done in and by the market over a period of time? Or some other way ????

      Jan 31, 2014 31:03 PM

      Fred, from what I understand. ….the IMF IS involved resetting all currencies to their assets
      in that particular nation. So for example the US is debt based country so we will have a big
      devaluation. …..30% ..?. …..your bank account will still be intact and no immediate problems
      until several months down the road. Then prices will start rising dramatically for everything.
      Gold will be revalued as this reset takes place for the new world currency. Gold will play a
      large roll in this global mandate for world trade thats coming.

      The problem with all this gold bear bullcrap…..its all horses_it.

      Its going to happen becsuse the US dollar is debt based and no one
      Wants to trade with it anymore. ITS VERY RISKY.

      RIGHT NOW WHO EVER IS CLAIMING GOLD COULD BE A TOUGH SLED

      THEIR JUDGMENT IS VERY MISPLACED. This reset is coming and no
      one knows when but most likely this yesr. Probably on a weekend too.
      No notice.

      THE BIG RISK IS BEING OUT OF GOLD. ……..

      everything else is………….HORSES_IT