Thursday Morning Thoughts from Gary

Big Al
March 13, 2014

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    Mar 13, 2014 13:05 AM

    Wow, we have a breakout in the gold stocks finally after weeks of going nowhere. I sold a large position in GG yesterday to take some profits and on the morning dip I bought back 8K GG within 2 cents of the bottom and 5K GDX (within 4 cents of the bottom) as I sensed this breakout coming any day now. Gold stocks are finally outperforming gold today. I am going to hold now hoping for much higher levels.

      Mar 13, 2014 13:41 PM

      Nothing wrong with taking a profit, Paul L!

    Mar 13, 2014 13:08 AM

    GDX and GDXJ today broke out of pennant formation. It’s a brake out. Same pennant formation as previous one. Expect 52$ on GDXJ within few weeks.

    Mar 13, 2014 13:19 AM

    Gary, the dollar is going to make a modest double bottom within a few trading days. It is just a modest number of points off resistance now. You mention the FOMC meeting but I think the dollar will reverse sooner. To be exact, the vote on Crimea comes during the weekend as it lands on Saturday March 16th. Some trouble could erupt as vote counting begins. Monday the dollar will bounce, not fall below resistance. If you are confident about gold you need to place bets by Friday at the latest. My gold view is that gold will start a decline when the time is right and that could begin anytime next week. Probably not Monday though. Much more likely is gold starts falling on the FOMC meetings set for the 18/19th. We will be looking at the dollar gaining strength through March and early April though so keep that in mind as it does some retracement caused by the dollars fall.

      Mar 13, 2014 13:20 AM

      …..As gold does some retracement….

      Mar 13, 2014 13:38 AM


        Mar 13, 2014 13:10 AM

        Fool, I am not in DUST today. Can’t you read?

        Mar 13, 2014 13:42 PM


          Mar 14, 2014 14:00 AM

          He is still blithering drivel from comments on yesterdays thread.

      Mar 13, 2014 13:52 AM

      It’s too early for the dollar to bottom. The last daily cycle was short at only 17 days. Usually this means the next cycle runs long. Wednesday would be the earliest.

      The current intermediate cycle topped on week 2. That is one of the most extreme left translated cycles of the last 10 years. That means the odds are very high it’s going to go below the previous intermediate low, which was the Oct. bottom.

      Remember the dollar is now heading down into it’s major three year cycle low. During this process bad things are going to happen. We aren’t going to make any double bottoms during this process. We are going to see major declines and extreme sentiment readings during this process. As of Tuesday sentiment still has lots of room to fall before it gets extreme.

        Mar 13, 2014 13:18 AM

        I would say lets make a bet on a bottle of wine. But I gave booze up so we will just have to keep it a gentleman’s bet. It is only our pride on the line here! So we will know soon enough which way this goes. You could well be right of course. I just have a different view and suspect the dollar bounces Monday.

          Mar 13, 2014 13:57 AM

          The dollar is probably going to bounce today, but it’s too early in the daily cycle for it to be a final intermediate bottom.

            Mar 13, 2014 13:59 AM

            Well Gary, the dollar did indeed bounce 30 points just now right off an intraday low of 79.30 so my take is the reversal has already begun because that is the resistance level. Look how much the Euro just moved. That’ an almost vertical drop of 110 points and then gold moved down almost 4 bucks in sympathy so I think my take will be correct.

            Mar 14, 2014 14:23 AM

            The dollar is already dropping again. I expected a bounce at support but because it’s too early for the cycle to bottom the dollar should still have more downside and I think it has to drop below the Oct. low before an intermediate degree bottom.

          Mar 13, 2014 13:43 PM

          If you gave it up for a good reason Bird, you have all of my respect! I mean that.

            Mar 13, 2014 13:59 PM

            Thanks Al. It wrecked a chunk of my life before I finally knuckled under and quit. So glad I finally kissed it goodbye. I have a very understanding wife now too. Lots of support. Only problem is that this sobriety is screwing with my market intuition. I was much better loaded!

            Mar 13, 2014 13:30 PM

            Hang in there if it is important to do that!

          Mar 14, 2014 14:02 AM

          I expect it to bounce at support too. Probably monday on news of the Crimea elections (or the predictable protests and sabre rattling that is bound to follow).

      Mar 13, 2014 13:00 AM

      Birdman, at this point in time the metals have been beat so hard that any sign of improvement is welcomed. I’ll take it and look for more.

        Mar 13, 2014 13:19 AM

        Don’t get too crazy though Jerry. Gold is a fickle lover.

          Mar 13, 2014 13:53 PM

          Gold is the least fickle asset the world has ever known.

            Mar 14, 2014 14:58 AM

            Get your facts straight. Gold is the most heavily speculative of any commodity class amounting to many billions each day and it has been that way all your life. Have never looked at a hundred year chart? You don’t live in Roman times so nobody cares what happened back then as it is totally irrelevant.

        Mar 13, 2014 13:43 PM

        Me too Gatorman!

    Mar 13, 2014 13:30 AM

    As a precious metals holder, it concerns me that there is a divergence in the behavior between gold and silver.
    Gold and platinum appear to be reacting to dollar behavior. So why is silver not doing the same? In sympathy with copper? Does not make total sense to me. Is India about to take a hit?

      Mar 13, 2014 13:11 AM

      SILVER AND COPPER will com back don’t worry ! And CHINA IS OK ! COOL COOL IS THE WAY !

      Mar 13, 2014 13:15 AM

      I agree with you CFS. The same thought crossed my mind. Silver may be indicating golds direction but it seems more probable it is just functioning along the same lines as any other industrial metal right now. Confidence in gold is still pretty low. It is really only in the small gold community that any excitement exists. For the rest of Americans it is still a great big yawn and until that changes we won’t see really dramatic moves like some here are suggesting.

      Mar 13, 2014 13:52 AM

      FromSilverDoctor Maybe this is your answer .CFS.

      Well, SD readers, we have gotten a mild price attack on the metals but nothing as severe as what I think is to come.
      Notice, despite the commercials discarding large open interest contracts in both shorts and longs they even deepened their total open interest net short position and are very close to 200,000,000 net ounces short.
      My calculations say they can crash silver price to $15 if that is their target.

      Mar 13, 2014 13:44 PM

      Let me add to that – don’t get too crazy about anything. Cool heads always prevail!I

    Mar 13, 2014 13:34 AM

    Big All you can’t agree 1000 percent lol your sounding like a promoter lol
    100% ok 1000% no such thing buddy…..

    Mar 13, 2014 13:54 PM

    How can you tell your subscribers anything now that your site is toast?

    Mar 13, 2014 13:28 PM

    Re: silver weakness–the silver miners have not shown that today.

    John Williams saying GDP could be negative for 1st q.

    Mar 13, 2014 13:26 PM

    Ted Butler is calling for closing of the COMEX on grounds of blatant price manipulation and failure of regulation.

    Mar 13, 2014 13:50 PM

    Gary is your hacked site still going to be re-activated when repaired? c35

      Mar 13, 2014 13:39 PM

      I spoke with Gary earlier and I believe that it is cerino

    Mar 13, 2014 13:06 PM

    My developer is working on getting the site back up as soon as possible. Once it’s repaired the nightly reports will go back onto the premium site.