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Gary is nervous for gold heading into the FOMC announcement on Wednesday

March 17, 2014

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Discussion
76 Comments
    Mar 17, 2014 17:24 PM

    I am not a short term trader. If it goes down it gives me a great opportunity to buy at lower prices! I still believe gold will go to 1900-2000 by years end! The “boyz” are just trying to hang on to their crazy economy! They are going to lose!

      Mar 17, 2014 17:09 PM

      AL……

      Losing a big opportunity almost …..is reason to be frustrated

      FACT IS….MY GOLD INVESTMENTS WERE TIMED AT THE BOTTOM
      AND WAY AHEAD. Not because of listening to posters here or the
      anaylists here. The exact opposite I would be losing out or at least
      on the majority of my current profits. I was highly discouraged as
      well from many posters at the bottom and even 6 weeks ago.
      Even till now. Won’t mention the names.

      Bottomline…if I can’t make any money here…what good is it.
      Thats why investors come here but there are too many here
      that just want to kill time. No invested risk at all.

      Bird and me went at it before. Thats changed and I apologized.

      The reason I posted was to warn about The Tribulation. Was not
      planning on doing all this posting. People can believe it or not
      but at least some will be saved if they heed the warning.

      NO ONE IS PERFECT ..I DON’T DRINK BECAUSE IT QUENCHES
      THE SPIRIT OF GOD. Very few help the homeless or even care
      about saving people from the coming destruction.

      Christians and those who know the truth in Gods promise cannot
      be a man pleaser. They don’t want to hear the truth. Its very difficult
      to get the message to sink in. Jesus out there is a bad word. Luke warm
      Believers are not saved. They hide in the churches and never go out and
      talk about how wonderfully good Jesus is. Spreading the good news The
      Gospel of The Lord is very important.

      God see’s everything we do. I will leave it there. Now back to going about
      My Fathers business in Heaven.

        Mar 17, 2014 17:39 PM

        HH,

        I am confused as to what you mean when you say “Luke warm Believers are not saved”.

        There is no such thing as an unsaved believer. Everyone who believes by faith alone in the Gospel is saved, they are all born-again, they are God’s elect, they are all part of the body of Christ (His Church), and they all will be raptured together. Whether they are mature (which very few Christians are) or they are immature or they are worldly. Even “lukewarm” Christians will be raptured. Lukewarm Christians are still believers who are born-again and saved.

        Now there are many people in churches today who are not saved (born-again). They profess to be believers but really have not believed in the Gospel alone for salvation and have not repented. They wrongly believe that they are going to heaven because of their good works or because they attended church all their life and were even baptized or they think they are not really a bad person.

        You seem though to believe in the partial-rapture theory. The partial-rapture teaches that only devout Christians will be raptured while worldly Christians will go through the Tribulation. Is that what you believe? If so, how do you judge if a Christian is lukewarm or not. Most Christians are, in general, immature and worldly. Some Christians are lukewarm (in the flesh) sometimes and at other times living a “Spirit” filled life and are devout. What happens to believers that are semi-devout? There were many Christians in the 1st Century were immature and worldly. The church at Corinth comes to mind. And the church at Galatia even began believing a false gospel. Paul still considered and treated them as believers.

          Mar 18, 2014 18:39 AM

          J MILLER

          Really enjoyed you’re post to Al recently. Revelation 3 14-22 luke warm neither cold nor
          hot….The Lord will spit you out of his mouth. Bible says you will be rejected. Taking a big
          chance. Some Christians still have much of their heart living for the world. The Lord is the
          judge but I will tell anyone by living like this you are not saved. If they are in repentance all
          the time and sincerely sorry I believe The Lord will forgive. The Lord is abundant and rich
          in mercy, forgiveness and grace. Repentance is the way to be saved. However, few living like this or in permanent sin situation are repenting. This is the problem today. All should be repenting as we all sin daily. Especially transgressions premeditated sin.

          The way to salvation is through repentance. Very few are. Except strong believers.
          This is why our Lord is so great ….the great abundace of mercy and love. But if we
          don’t ask we will not receive. ITS A TRAGEDY. VERY SAD.

          This is the reason for the tribulation…there is hardly any repentance. They continue to
          do evil works and live by sin. No matter how good we think we are not repenting is a
          prescription to hell. Taking a big chance.

            Mar 18, 2014 18:02 AM

            All sins are forgiven except rejecting The Lord. He can’t deny himself.

            So regardless of how good we think we are, everyone should be repenting daily.

            THIS IS THE KEY TO BEING SAVED. It’s the very product to salvation. REPENT.

            Mar 18, 2014 18:04 AM

            HH,

            Thanks for the reply. Will think about Revelation 3:14-22.

            Just to confirm. You do believe that some Jews and Gentiles will be saved during the Tribulation? Such as the 144,000 Jews (Revelation 7) and the 5th seal martyrs who are souls that are only now being given a white robe (Revelation 6:9) and their fellow servants who were to be killed later on (Revelation 6:11).

            Mar 18, 2014 18:19 AM

            J MILLER

            You are a very remarkable guy. Like your enthusiasm as talking about The Gospel
            and sharing is much more rewarding in my life anyway. Plus doing eternal things
            last forever. Our wealth will not last long now. Its a real joke. I can see it coming
            like Jesus said. The wise and their money will be made foolish.

            Back to what you asked. I don’t believe very many will be saved in the trib. The bible
            really doesn’t support it. The 144000 yes. Then gentiles…us….10 % if we are lucky
            in the trib. Im praying to be worthy everyday to escape whats coming. Jesus said.

            The best thing we can do is listen and obey The Lord. Repent of coarse. Then we will
            escape whats coming. No doubt. Not perfect though but The Lord knows if we are trying.

            ALL THE SIGNS ARE IN AND ACCORDING TO GODS WORD.

            THE TRIBULATION COULD HAPPEN ANY TIME. Everyone should be want to be out of here.

            The truth is few will escape. Very tragic. You J Miller will.escape . Last chance to help
            many be saved.

            Mar 18, 2014 18:11 AM

            I might want to add….world war 3 is coming. Russia stands in the way to protect
            Israel. There is not going to be peace…Jesus said. Israel is the world burden ..
            Google it….its in scripture.

            God says this war is coming in Ezekiel 38&39. The surprise will be when it happens
            there will be no news. 30 percent of the worlds population is wiped out. This is only
            the beginning of sorrows. God told us whats going to happen and the consequences
            for non believers. There is also a financial collapse that takes down everything.
            We are living in the very very last dsys just prior to the tribulation. That will be the
            worst time ever…in the history of the world.

            THE RISKS NOW ARE ANYONE WHO LIVES IN DISBELIEF

            IS IN GREAT GREAT. ..PERIL

            Mar 18, 2014 18:55 AM

            Are you a minister?

          Mar 18, 2014 18:51 AM

          Good question jmiller

    Mar 17, 2014 17:27 PM

    Sissy’s you can miss the BOAT with IN and OUT ! BUY AND HOLD ! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=isMCa2KMAx0

    Mar 17, 2014 17:32 PM

    I am not a nervous Nellie, I am not concerned about the FOMC meeting, what does concern me is what is China going to spring on the world markets on April 24th. They are supposed to announce their gold holdings everything else is window dressing. I think they are now the World’s largest holder of physical, this more than anything makes me worried about us, the people in the western world.

      Mar 17, 2014 17:22 PM

      Been thinking about that for a long time Machine Gun!

    SEB
    Mar 17, 2014 17:43 PM

    The sell off today has everything to do with today’s Putin signed referendum of Cremea becoming independent state of Republic of Cremea. Therefore HOT MONEY and their stupid alogo triggered on news computers sold off. Tricky question not becomes if HOT money will be gone completely or NOT. That’s the big question.

    I have a question. Did James the lesser ever said anything good about gold? Every? If not then you must come to conclude he’s paid troll posting negative info about gold, probably paid by JPM. Message boards like yahoo and others are full of trolls like that. Fact that you can’t ignore comments here makes it for trolls more attractive place to hang out and post sh1t about the asset. They will do this all the way up to $2000 and $2000 then will be doing the same. The letter assigning should be a clue for you guys. Recognize it for what it is. TROLL. Good day.

      MNH
      Mar 17, 2014 17:21 PM

      Can’t recall that he ever has, SEB.

      But we do have this that the N Y Fed says on their web site:
      “All bars brought into the vault for deposit are carefully weighed, and the refiner and fineness (purity) markings on the bars are inspected to ensure they agree with the depositor instructions and recorded in the New York Fed’s records. This step is vital because the New York Fed returns the exact bars deposited by the account holder upon withdrawal—gold deposits are not considered fungible.”

      Might as well be selling Panoramic Beach Front Property—in Oklahoma, huh?

      Mar 17, 2014 17:49 PM

      On March 13, 2014 at 9:16 am,
      SEB says:

      “BIRDAMAN YOU’RE ALREADY DOWN 10% ON DUST ON YOUR FIRST DAY…AHAHHA”
      ———–

      Totally wrong as usual…….Care to do a review of last Thursdays discussion where you called me a troll just because I said gold was going to decline? Told you there was easy pickins on them bones. Goldtards never learn.

        SEB
        Mar 17, 2014 17:50 PM

        Hold your DUST til Thu ok?

          Mar 18, 2014 18:47 AM

          We will see. Meantime your stocks are getting squashed. So why was this so obvious and predictable? One thing you guys who only bet in one direction NEVER do…..you never concede the other guy was correct even after delivering a rotten mouthful of insults and mocking remarks. How about it for once…..how about you admit you could not make the market call despite all the bravado and chest pounding.

          PS: Gold has further to fall. This is far from over even as we sit almost 36 dollars below yesterdays highs. The corrective period is underway that many of us waited for. In my case, I actually called it for Monday. Did you?

            SEB
            Mar 18, 2014 18:31 AM

            Birdman. Gold stocks had second brake out and they were lifting up to much higher levels. Cartel intervened and it went down. NO ONE can foresee cartel intervention. Only clue was FOMC meeting. If you want to be guessing instead of catching trends then go ahead. Guessing is not something i will do. We will get $2000 by year end and that’s all that matters to me. I do want to avoid those crashes but no one can do this with any certainty besides guessing.

            Mar 18, 2014 18:37 AM

            I did not guess. And I was quite accurate too by the way.

        Mar 17, 2014 17:30 PM

        Gold what?

          Mar 18, 2014 18:37 AM

          Gold-Tards.

            Mar 18, 2014 18:52 AM

            I know.My Kindle would not let me print it!

            Mar 18, 2014 18:36 AM

            Ha! Kindle is on to me. Anyway, I only use that term to fight back against the guy who keeps calling everyone a “Troll”. Talk about calling the kettle black.

    Mar 17, 2014 17:46 PM

    What would really hurt us is if The Chinese put an embargo on rare earth metals how would the west retaliate, I don’t think we are in the position to start a trade war with someone who controls so much of the goods we buy from day to day and have become addicted to. DT

      Mar 17, 2014 17:56 PM

      there are a lot of rare earths in Canada, especially Quebec….as well as Greenland …Greenland minerals, quest rare earth minerals. Pretty much a guaranteed ramp up if an emergency occurs.

    Mar 17, 2014 17:47 PM

    I’m convinced we have seen the bottom for gold, but we may have put in an intermediate top on Friday that could set up a massive head and shoulders bottom. Most traders don’t want to weather the draw down that would entail over the next couple of months even though by the end of the year gold would be much higher.

    I’m just guessing on the short term direction in the chart below. Gold could either go down immediately or it could rally above $1400 first, but it is going to have a very nasty correction that will start at some point in the not too distant future and drop down into a yearly cycle low in May or June. This is the same correction that Rick Rule is looking for this summer. It may or may not have begun today.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=3&mn=6&dy=0&id=p45982460150&a=342293879&listNum=1

      SEB
      Mar 17, 2014 17:25 PM

      That would hurt Gary. Thanks for your input on the program. Everyone appreciate it maybe with exception of few paid trolls on the board that will never said anything good about gold.

      From previous Gold pattern one can conclude that inverse h&s pattern already occurred with smaller shoulders and we are in big uptrend. Many way of interpreting the graph. GOLD CROSS COMING UP unless they knock it down so that will be bullish. Since we’re about 200ma, 50ma and weekly 50 ma one can not conclude anything bearish from 20$ sell off. I do believe todays sell of was alogo news executed. Monkeys probably helped a little too.

      Please remember everyone. In order to execute huge sell like last year bullion banks need to have physical gold in comex to be sold to physical buyers (china). Lately they’re running on fumes and this will be short lived just like it’s been in 2 previous raids they did. Big sell off are done until more phyz becomes available and that phyz is not available until much higher prices are painted on the tape.

      Mar 18, 2014 18:38 AM

      Gary;
      I hope you leave that chart up for a few months. I saved it, and am hoping to be able to buy more at those prices.

      Thanks man

        Mar 18, 2014 18:45 AM

        Keep in mind those aren’t targets, just general directions.

          Mar 18, 2014 18:18 AM

          Duly noted (Y)

    Mar 17, 2014 17:49 PM

    If Crimea has some people rattled what about Taiwan. I’m sure they ( China) are watching this unfold. DT

    MNH
    Mar 17, 2014 17:51 PM

    China isn’t going to spring anything April 24th.
    Dr Ruth IS going to announce an additional taper this week.

    Since seems -all- use the term, -manipulators- all the ‘they my try and hit’ stuff is window dressing.

    If, “They” hit, massive PHYZZ buying will take place….but will there be any to buy?
    Like it or not, call it whatever ya want, “They” now long ago, defaulted on sending back Germanys gold.
    Period.
    Say Gold gets smashed this week….or end of June….doesn’t matter—
    What matters is what happens when –even people who aren’t paying attention– look up from their basketball or what ever and can figure out –there ain’t no Gold!

    Gold IS going up—way up… it doesn’t matter if it’s the, “They/Manipulators” that let it rise trying to bring PHYZZ back onto the market, or if, “They/Manipulators” get exposed for the crooks they are and begin settling in cash.
    Drives me crazy when people say ‘Prices up here’….Are you kidding me?
    It’s really, “…Prices way the same heck down here!”

    PM’s may or may not drop from this level…doesn’t matter…. “Sell in May and go Away,” season is coming right on schedule…. or is it?
    If it does….will there be ANY PHYZZ by 4th July…. if it doesn’t…just what would that mean??

    Mar 17, 2014 17:41 PM

    Seems like people are listening to porter stransbury and that April 24th china announcement.

    Who knows? Maybe they are right

    Tom
    Mar 17, 2014 17:35 PM

    Gary I think your prediction will come to pass

    Mar 17, 2014 17:17 PM

    The daily cycle low crap, is just that. Ukraine drove gold, it got overbought on ww3 fears, was due for a correction, fears subdued and gold correct to 1360. may go down to 1350 and will provide a buying opportunity at that level

      Mar 18, 2014 18:44 AM

      geff,
      You may be right. This is starting to look like a stretched daily cycle. As long as it doesn’t break the intermediate trend line at 1318 we may yet get one more pop to 1425-60 before a final intermediate top.

    Mar 17, 2014 17:39 PM

    “”I think it’s quite likely that interest rates will go up, but we have to understand in what context. At the present time we have a 0 based fund rate. Now, please explain to me and your listeners what do you think are your cost of living increases annually in the US? 1% , 2% or more likely more than 5%, including insurance premiums, food, energy and healthcare. My view for most American families is the cost of living increases are between 5 and 10% per annum. We have a 0 fed fund rate, so in real terms inflation adjusted, the fed fund rate is negative in the order of 5% or more. And if they increase one day the Fed’s fund rate somewhat in the order say maybe two percent three percent that would be a huge increase already. By then already maybe the cost of living increase would be 10% or 15% So, I think that under Yellen and the other FED governors that are all dovish, basically with very few exceptions, the FED funds rate will stay negative in real terms inflation adjusted, that is positive for gold.” — Marc Faber
    ————–

    Yes, that is exactly what I was trying to say last week except he does a better job of getting to the point. It is why I contend that inflation will not be showing up in core readings. It cannot show up in core or the charade will not work. It MUST therefore be coming out in food and energy which are headline and that is why what is happening in Ukraine is so critically important. Even if interest rates rise, the spread between interest rates and (off record) inflation will stay the same if not increase. Which is another way of saying that living standards will continue to get eaten even as the hope arises that savers can once again save due to improving rate environments. So we need to watch the differential between the Fed Funds rate and real inflation numbers. What lies ahead is probably going to feel rather traumatic if blistering inflation is the outcome as I suspect.

      Mar 17, 2014 17:41 PM

      And that brings me back to Mark Carney again who last week stated that interest rates would rise sixfold by 2017.

        Mar 18, 2014 18:36 AM

        So let’s do a little more follow up on the above statements with comments from John Hilsenrath of the WSJ. That should help bring this all into perpsective. Today, John wrote (regarding rate setting)…..

        “The Fed…projects that by the end of 2016 the unemployment rate will be near long-run average between 5.2% and 5.8% and inflation will be near the Fed’s long-run target of 2%. Yet most Fed officials are projecting the target for short-term interest rates will be below 2%, much less than the 4% level that officials think is appropriate in normal times. [This] is the linchpin to the Fed’s assurance that rates won’t rise much in the next couple of years, even after they start inching up from zero. It is also one of the next battlegrounds in the Fed’s policy debates”.
        ——————

        OK….so what is he talking about?

        Well if we can imagine that the Fed Funds Rate might be at a lofty 1% in two years time it tells us that the difference between a more historical inflation rate/interest rate point of view, the spead will be three big points.

        Put another way, if we reach two percent inflation and that typically calls for rates of 4% but we see only 1% instead then rate stimulus is still in effect and this will affect most of your investments. This is good for gold and hard assets of course.

        More to the point though, if REAL inflation is actually running as high as 6 to 7% but not showing up in core numbers then we have a spread that might easily be as wide as 6 to 8 points. Investors need to focus on this differential and take steps to not fall behind as their nest egg gets eaten away year after year.

        Anyway….probably enough said on this topic since nobody here seems to bother following these numbers. If you fail to pay attention now though you will surely notice it some years down the road. This is serious erosion if you don’t work your capital and investments. And from what I read, this will go on for a long period of time. Years probably.

        John Hilsthenrath – WSJ – Fed Links Low Rates to “Persistent Headwinds” in Economy.
        http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/03/17/grand-central-the-persistence-of-persistent-headwinds-in-the-economy/

      Mar 18, 2014 18:26 AM

      If interest rates rise the debt can’t be paid period, forget about any spread, most consumers will also be in default as their loans go back to the bank. Then the bank is in double doo doo, and these bad loans mostly mortgage money get sent to the taxpayer via CMHC. DT

        Mar 18, 2014 18:46 AM

        Every country that retains control over its money supply and monetary policy will indeed pay off the debts. They will merely do so in much smaller dollars if debt is too onerous. No government will technically go broke though. So a rise in rates is not the thing to be feared but rather the reaction of the authorities to those higher rates. Some countries will curtail spending to close deficits, others will hike taxes. Some will do both. When nothing else works they run the presses to inflate the currency (buying bonds by the truckload) or opt for an overnight devaluation to make the books balance. Depending on what they do you can feel a lot poorer or you can be totally ruined.

          Mar 18, 2014 18:48 AM

          By the way, CMHC is Canadian. I doubt most here have ever heard of it.

    SEB
    Mar 17, 2014 17:48 PM

    Prepare b1tches for QE5 to be announced on Wen. No fen taper!!!!
    Smash was planned so gold doesn’t brake $1400 and starts from lower level and upon announcement it still won’t brake 1400. Fen crooks!!!!!

    SEB
    Mar 17, 2014 17:48 PM

    Prepare b1tches for QE5 to be announced on Wen. No fen taper!!!!
    Smash was planned so gold doesn’t brake $1400 and starts from lower level and upon announcement it still won’t brake 1400. Fen crooks!!!!!
    Trolls keep on trolling. Run for the hills. Run for your life.

    SEB
    Mar 17, 2014 17:08 PM

    $USD has been telling you by dropping QE5 is coming

    ballin!

    lol

      Mar 17, 2014 17:29 PM

      Probably Seb

        Mar 18, 2014 18:39 AM

        Tapering will continue until it has expired to zero in June. There is no new QE coming.

          Mar 18, 2014 18:55 AM

          do i sense a wager in the air?

            Mar 18, 2014 18:39 AM

            Anytime. This is not even an open question in my mind.

          Mar 18, 2014 18:54 AM

          Be interesting to see if that is the case. Contrary to many other opinions I think you are probably right.

        Mar 18, 2014 18:59 AM

        i was thinking of you and seb, not with me. I am still waiting for my payoff from January’s bet (not with you bird)

          Mar 18, 2014 18:20 AM

          You await a bottle of wine by any chance?

            Mar 18, 2014 18:25 AM

            yes, weather has to warm for them to ship from north west. Getting mighty thirsty in the Florida mid 70’s however.

    Mar 18, 2014 18:34 AM

    how are we accounting for today’s waterfall in gold?

    Mar 18, 2014 18:35 AM

    #6 – “Thus, an investor who is armed only with technical analysis and a US debt clock may find it’s quite difficult to prosper in the gold market.”

    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_031814.html

    Gold down $15 in my currency this a.m.
    ummmm .. scrump-dilly-icious!

      Mar 18, 2014 18:01 AM

      Tomorrow Janet yelled talking so today GOLD DOWN AND MARKET UP ! The same game !

        Mar 18, 2014 18:52 AM

        I like this game 🙂

          Mar 18, 2014 18:02 AM

          ALL THE BEST TO YOU MAN ! Take the MONEY !

      Mar 18, 2014 18:07 AM

      Good work Irwin. Glad that turned out well for you.

        Mar 18, 2014 18:15 AM

        Thanks Birdman;
        I may start adding a little this morning, and keep buying if we get down to Doc’s and Gary’s targets.

          Mar 18, 2014 18:28 AM

          save a bit of dry power for when the bottom comes and d and g’s targets are crushed.

            Mar 18, 2014 18:30 AM

            oops, am I a troll now too?

            Mar 18, 2014 18:55 AM

            I think the “trolls” are the Gold Astronauts – always going to da moon any day now! Trying to suck people into a bull trap, and then they disappear.

            Hopefully, most people here are smart enough to fall for those games.

            Mar 18, 2014 18:56 AM

            … smart enough NOT to fall for those games.

            Mar 18, 2014 18:56 AM

            You are not a Troll if you make money trading precious metals, Bobby. You have a right to be here just like the bulls who would prefer this is a one way trade. Silver is tracing out an ugly pattern that tells me if that continues we will retest the lows. No doubt gold will follow if that drama pans out.

            Mar 18, 2014 18:59 AM

            Thanks Irwin. Glad I am not the only one. It must really bug these guys that traders are making the money when the bulls would have us all believe it is a buy and hold world. They still don’t get why that theory has not worked out for them yet.

            Mar 18, 2014 18:14 AM

            haha! Birdman;
            you must enjoy Mark’s comments over at Trader Dan’s blog too? Sometimes I wonder if he’s actually Birdman!

            Mar 18, 2014 18:27 AM

            Dan and I think alike. The big difference is he is a lot brighter than me!

    Mar 18, 2014 18:06 AM

    Copper looks overdone. We now know it was almost all Chinese selling that took prices down. That was a spec move more than a fundamental correction. Going short now after the fact looks like a big hazard to me.

      Mar 18, 2014 18:27 AM

      I can’t believe it, I agree with you.

        Mar 18, 2014 18:29 AM

        Good to hear Matthew.

          Mar 18, 2014 18:36 AM

          You following coffee by the way? See how it hit a top, waffled around a little and then started to roll over. You could almost hear the Elliot guys counting off waves all the way over to Africa. Course they were all trying to figure out if it had indeed done a wave 5, gone parabolic and was set to mean revert. Right about then the shorts piled on and up she went again again. Screwed the whole lot as they bailed out in a panic! Just can’t get in front of some trains safely.

    Mar 18, 2014 18:29 AM

    I bought silver this morning at $20.74 –not sure about Doc’s $19.50, but will buy more if it goes there.