Views from Gary Savage – Wed 19 Mar, 2014

Morning comments on gold and the conventional markets from Gary

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Featuring:
Al KorelinCory FleckGary Savage

Comments:
    • On March 19, 2014 at 10:54 am,
      Eric says:

      thanks for the link.

      I feel like you are really in sync with the market right now.

      From my perspective, in looking at the mining stocks, many have sold down toward moving average support or the center of the Bollinger bands — the 20 day moving average.

      Others were so far above the moving averages, that the declines still look minor relative to how far they have come in the past couple of months. In either case, as Cory observed, it has given them a chance to work off over-bought readings on daily charts, with gold still above $1300.

      When a stock rallies off a bear market low, as it gets above the 200 day moving average, it is very common for it to consolidate there while it waits for the 50 day to catch up and cross through to the upside.

      For readers here, go to http://www.stockcharts.com and look at the charts of the GDX and GDXJ, with 50 and 200 day moving averages, for the purpose of illustration.

      What you will notice is that these proxies for the mining group first exceeded the 200 day moving average in mid February. They have actually been consolidating for one month — going largely sideways — waiting for the 50 day to catch up.

      That is happening now. If someone missed the initial move, a potential trading strategy is to go long here with a stop underneath the moving average support.

      I am in the camp that believes the consolidation will be resolved to the upside and that the next leg could be equivalent in size to the first leg.

      In that regard, I have picked up some additional small to micro cap miners this morning, that I had been waiting on for pull backs. Examples include: True Gold, Rox Gold, Wellgreen Platinum, Torex, Riverside Resources, Midas Gold and Mirasol.

      To fund the purchases, I used some of the proceeds from the small amount of selling I did in the past week or two (mining stocks that had reached over-bought areas on the weekly charts, such as NovaGold).

      Currently about 10% cash and 90% a diversified group of mining stocks. Will stick to my knitting and raise additional cash if and when select mining stocks go over-bought on the weekly charts. This might dove-tail nicely with the Gary/Rick Rule scenario. We shall see — best of luck to all.

      Notes: I am not a registered investment advisor and nothing said here is a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Please do your own due diligence and keep in mind my basic advice of avoiding futures, options, concentrated positions, and margin.

      • On March 19, 2014 at 11:28 am,
        SD Marc says:

        Thanks Eric….great, great comments.

        • On March 19, 2014 at 11:51 am,
          Big Al says:

          I second that Marc!

    • On March 19, 2014 at 2:47 pm,
      Shad says:

      Great Interview. Gary & Cory are very in tune with my thinking of how things will proceed as well. I expected gold to keep going down until and accelerate after the FOMC meeting, but the million dollar question is will the 1318-1321 level be taken out or will gold stay in the mid 1320′s. If gold can hang in here in the 1320s and 1330s, then there is a good chance it will jolt up suddenly for one last pop to 1440. It may just be the Russian or Chinese situations that change sentiment and become the fundament reasons for the technical move next week. Good Luck To All!!!

      • On March 19, 2014 at 6:53 pm,
        Birdman says:

        The Golden Cross won’t happen anymore. It has been badly delayed if not cancelled.

  1. On March 19, 2014 at 10:08 am,
    CFS says:

    I think hourly or daily price considerations are not relevant. The trend is your friend, and trends less than a week are meaningless for long term considerations.
    (See my comments on previous “bottom” post.

    • On March 19, 2014 at 11:52 am,
      Big Al says:

      My thoughts exactly.

      • On March 19, 2014 at 6:54 pm,
        Birdman says:

        Gold got an “A” today because it was so damned profitable!

  2. On March 19, 2014 at 10:12 am,
    CFS says:

    But, unlike Gary, I’m not a trader. Traders seem to make more money for their brokers than they do for themselves, if you ask me.

  3. On March 19, 2014 at 10:27 am,
    The" OWL COINLAND" REPORT.......O^OTB...WOOT says:

    Silver is now on the move………….
    JPM……just sold their Commodities business……

    • On March 19, 2014 at 10:28 am,
      The" OWL COINLAND" REPORT.......O^OTB...WOOT says:

      I posted this earlier today…….

      • On March 19, 2014 at 10:30 am,
        The" OWL COINLAND" REPORT.......O^OTB...WOOT says:

        silver is going up…………the ratio is way out of wack………..64 to 1

    • On March 19, 2014 at 11:04 am,
      irishtony says:

      Jerry…..That’s a blatant lie…I only paid , $3.6 bill……ratio 64.87 to 1 …not for long suckers…you thought JPM were bad…….im crashing it to 87 to 1…….you will all sell & I will buy the lot……………I AM SILVER KING>>>>HAAHAAAHAAAAAAAAAAA.Yes me MAD IRISHTONY…..SILVERKING……………….sorry must go ..time for my meds.

      • On March 19, 2014 at 11:11 am,
        CFS says:

        Erin go braugh. Argentum forever.

      • On March 19, 2014 at 11:31 am,
        SD Marc says:

        Hey IRISH…you got LOFTY company. Richard Russell went on record as saying that SILVER is the most undervalued asset EVER…hey, our time is coming – no panic and just sipping coffee – watching history unfold!

        • On March 19, 2014 at 11:50 am,
          The" OWL COINLAND" REPORT.......O^OTB...WOOT says:

          Marc………….Richard Russell is spot on…………Irish is spotty on……..

      • On March 19, 2014 at 11:53 am,
        Big Al says:

        Try cutting them back! (After talking with your doctor)

    • On March 19, 2014 at 6:55 pm,
      Birdman says:

      Yeah,,,on the move back to a retest of the lows.

  4. On March 19, 2014 at 10:28 am,
    BeaverBob says:

    Interesting call on the dollar.

    • On March 19, 2014 at 11:12 am,
      CFS says:

      I just do not understand why the dollar ever goes up!

      • On March 19, 2014 at 11:26 am,
        irishtony says:

        CFS……..PETROL !!!!!!!

  5. On March 19, 2014 at 10:46 am,
    PF says:

    Gary, do you think 1050 gold is still on the table or are we past that as a worst case scenario

    • On March 19, 2014 at 11:54 am,
      Big Al says:

      Want my opinion? I think we are past that for the time being as a worst case scenario.

  6. On March 19, 2014 at 12:35 pm,
    Birdman says:

    Dollar bounced as I predicted last Thursday Gary. You lost that bet.

    • On March 19, 2014 at 12:44 pm,
      Birdman says:

      I just keep getting lucky calling gold and the dollar. Must be that magic Irish coin I flip. Looks like the golden gold cross is going to be delayed by the way. Maybe it won’t even happen!

      • On March 19, 2014 at 12:48 pm,
        Birdman says:

        My lucky rabbits foot says the Dow could crash this coming Monday.

        • On March 19, 2014 at 1:38 pm,
          Birdman says:

          My horoscope says the usual suspects on this site will keep calling me an idiot (or some similar insult will get slung) each and every day I post here. Because fools like me cannot read the future without all the helpful reliable devices like tea leaves and Oiji and Edgar Casey.

          • On March 19, 2014 at 6:45 pm,
            Big Al says:

            No actually, you are close to the top of the list here!

          • On March 20, 2014 at 4:33 am,
            Bird Man says:

            Thanks for the vote of confidence Al. I get pretty discouraged by some of the remarks directed at me sometimes. Maybe I am just getting thin skinned since the booze-buzz has pretty much worn off.

        • On March 19, 2014 at 6:40 pm,
          Big Al says:

          Seriously, do you have a reason for saying that Bird?

          • On March 20, 2014 at 12:28 am,
            Bird Man says:

            A reason? Besides all the warning signals we already know about? Well yes Al…..my reason is I hate the chart pattern right now. It looks like it has already started rolling over. Maybe crash is not the best word. Sell-off is better. I am sure it is nothing though. Just a feeling right now.

      • On March 19, 2014 at 1:20 pm,
        Birdman says:

        Course I also said (without a hint of doubt) that taper would continue. My Oiji Board told me that.

        • On March 19, 2014 at 6:41 pm,
          Big Al says:

          Geeze common Bird, Oiji boards?

          • On March 19, 2014 at 6:58 pm,
            Birdman says:

            Yup!

      • On March 19, 2014 at 1:31 pm,
        Birdman says:

        And it was my tea leaves that told me to get long coffee and sugar and that those were great plays and that soft commodities would rage higher. That is some awesome tea!

        • On March 19, 2014 at 6:41 pm,
          Big Al says:

          Everyone has a cross to bear! (Even me by the way!)

          • On March 20, 2014 at 3:03 am,
            Bird Man says:

            What is yours Al?

      • On March 19, 2014 at 1:32 pm,
        Birdman says:

        The voices in my head said not to short copper…it was already overdone by the Speckers.

        • On March 19, 2014 at 6:42 pm,
          Big Al says:

          That’s it, where do we send help?

          • On March 19, 2014 at 6:59 pm,
            Birdman says:

            Too late Al!

      • On March 19, 2014 at 1:35 pm,
        Birdman says:

        Tonight I will try to channel some inflation. It is coming big time. Edgar Casey whispered it in my ear.

        • On March 19, 2014 at 2:01 pm,
          Birdman says:

          Never trust a prediction made with tea leaves or rabbits feet.

          • On March 19, 2014 at 2:41 pm,
            irishtony says:

            Birdman……You forgot your local witchdoctor im sure he will do a reading…for a chicken………………………………………………………………….just kidding.

          • On March 19, 2014 at 6:49 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Now don’t you start!

          • On March 19, 2014 at 6:18 pm,
            Birdman says:

            He only takes chicken bones!

          • On March 19, 2014 at 6:27 pm,
            Birdman says:

            But seriously Mr Irish…..I jut got a bad feeling all of a sudden. It’s probably nothing, just a little indigestion or something. Could be a potato. I was not even going to post today but I was getting that bad Ides of March vibe. Good to see you appreciate my cracked sense of humour! I sure hope I am wrong about a big selloff coming Monday.

          • On March 19, 2014 at 7:01 pm,
            Big Al says:

            The sad thing, Bird, is that you could very possibly be absolutely correct.

          • On March 19, 2014 at 6:48 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Never have, but I could be making a big mistake!

        • On March 19, 2014 at 6:43 pm,
          Big Al says:

          Ever read any of Shirley MacLane’s books. They are actually pretty interesting.

          • On March 20, 2014 at 12:07 am,
            Bird Man says:

            I did actually. Those were interesting reads. I believe in a spiritual dimension that is unseen to us mortals.I am not really kidding about the channeling either. The spirit world is alive and well all around us attempting to offer guidance if we will only listen.

    • On March 19, 2014 at 6:38 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Not a drinker so now a gambler. There is help, Bird!

    • On March 19, 2014 at 6:57 pm,
      Birdman says:

      Don’t try to ignore me Gary. I got you this time!

  7. On March 19, 2014 at 2:41 pm,
    Mike says:

    Are we going to have that 2nd interview with Gary S. this evening? Gold closed below first support and didn’t bounce. Will tomorrow reveal gold’s direction for the next few weeks?

  8. On March 19, 2014 at 3:47 pm,
    irishtony says:

    Mike hello……..Take a guess..everyone else is.

    • On March 19, 2014 at 3:50 pm,
      irishtony says:

      Or better still, just ask the cartel who are controlling all of this.

  9. On March 19, 2014 at 3:55 pm,
    tim says:

    I’m starting to get the feeling zee dollar gonna get stronger and zuh gold is gonna go down some more. Didn’t a couple of the Goldman Sucks boys state they would make, i mean, felt that gold would go to $1050 ??? Be on the lookout… :)

    • On March 19, 2014 at 6:29 pm,
      Birdman says:

      Gary said it was too early in the cycle for the dollar to rise. I think it is an omen.

      • On March 20, 2014 at 3:11 am,
        Bird Man says:

        So Gary? Lets have a follow up discussion on the dollar since you doubted my call. I think my analysis is better than yours (I know it is actually). Not to make a big deal about it or anything but for one time on this site I would appreciate someone admitting the other guy got it right instead of just trying to pretend we never had the discussion in the first place.

        • On March 20, 2014 at 3:31 am,
          irishtony says:

          Bird…sometimes we get it right…..sometimes we get it wrong…..but in the end we all get it wrong……..it’s a human fault.

        • On March 20, 2014 at 4:35 am,
          Bird Man says:

          True enough Tony. None of us is prefect. Since you mentioned it I will drop it.

          • On March 20, 2014 at 4:36 am,
            Bird Man says:

            Prefect was supposed to be “perfect” of course! No irony there at all…..ha ha.