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Yes, I guess it could be a rough week. However, don’t forge the longterm picture.
I never have Ryan J, I never have!
Dr. Ryan Jordan – GREAT to see you visiting and blogging on Al’s site. It is an honor that your think of this site enough to put in your thoughts and express them with the link you shared. Yes, SILVER – is the “People’s metal’!!
Marc……I for one still remain bullish silver…..& yes I am still saving in silver…I DONT TRUST THE BANKING SYSTEM.
After last night I guess we all should root for Stanford.
Gold Astronauts –
I Fart In Your General Direction!
Hilarious Irwin, I used that saying on my kids when they were younger and it always made them laugh. Of course I couldn’t say it at family dinners and such.
Especially not on holidays, right? (When everyone is there?)
I am looking for a match Irwin. (To put your fart to practical use.)
Looks like some of the high flying juniors have retraced their gains and are approaching oversold on their RSIs after about a 20% correction. May be time to check the couch for loose change in the coming weeks IMHO.
Yeh Dan, but certainly not forever!
I don’t want to throw cold water on the gold bugs but at some point in time one has to wonder what “long term” means. We heard this 2 years ago,”we have to keep the long term” in mind. Will we still hear that two years from now? I am beginning to slide into James(the lessor) camp. Maybe it’s time to take the money invested in metals and start that niche business that will at least give you a cash flow along with(if operated correctly) a return on investment.
I enjoy reading King World News but it has been the same drum beat for the last two years. You hear collapse coming, metal shortages, gold and silver going higher and on and on. Problem is it never happens. Question is when will it happen? Critical world events taking place, international monetary debt, an artificially inflated stock market currency debasement, international insolvency…nothing seems to move the metals unless its down. I’m holding what I have but I am sure puzzled.
I sold physical silver last November to start a sole proprietor snow removal business in Calgary after being almost wiped out of investment capital. I made the money back within weeks but I have trouble collecting from the contractor that gets paid from his contracts!
That is life though, silver in the physical form is passive and taking a risk involves headaches but potential profits. I will be locking in the same amount of silver I sold soon at a similar price but still have my company and a gravy contract with a large developer.
Did I hear something about diversification, Dan?
I only wish I was more diversified but I am trying hard to keep an open mind about new investments but silver is my staple investment. I can lever silver at 2.5 times cash but that is as far as I go. If it expires, don’t by it!;-) IMHO
I can appreciated your frustrations. But – when a paradigm shift occurs – it is definitely a drawn out affair – with multiple fits and starts. Long term is just that – long term. The trend and direction of world events has been established. I think Richard Russell has nailed it – he has cemented himself in physical gold and will watch HISTORY play out. I for one, have joined him – with gold and silver as my “beach chair”.
All the best.
I love “beach chairs”……….
Gater, I understand exactly, sounds to me sometimes the expression “long term” is used so a person cant be shown to be incorrect etc.
Long term, sinse 1913 is about 100 years, problem is life is more fun when we are not waiting for “long term”.
Myself, I think if a person began working at 15 (which I did) and saved 5-10% in gold over 50 years it would pay off. To me that’s long term. Issue is parent/teachers gotta explain that to a kid.
50 yrs being long as we live 80-120 years. 5 years, short, at least as far as gold is concerned. Actually, as gold has been around as money since about 680bc, 50 years to gold would still be short term.
Your comment is exactly why we diversify. Hell, if I had all the money we have in one sector I would not be a happy camper. That is, of course, assuming that I did not put it all into gold when the price was $800 or less.
I mean think about it, let’s assume that I bought $500K of gold at $252/oz which is where it was when I went to almost exclusively hard assets on this show. Let’s see that would be a bit over $3 million today plus the knowledge that I had great insurance over that time frame.
Whole bunch of different ways to look at it, but again that is why we diversify.
One last comment on that. Two years ago our real estate holdings sucked. Now, two years later, they don’t.
Unfortunately, Big Al, the appreciated real estate many of us have recognized over the last two years is a bubble that will come crashing down again before long. Can’t say that’s true for all areas but it will be for the majority. I too am diversified but am experiencing later rental payments on the rental property. As more of the middle class is decimated there will be less renters with money for rent. A vacant rental property experiencing increased property taxes and higher upkeep costs is not a real saleable item.
I have to agree with Gator on the REAL ESTATE……….big problems are ahead….if and when interest rates rise……..look out…………
Commercial is in real trouble……
HOLD STEADY GATOR……………everything is working as plan………just ask Goldman.
I think Gary is great at explaining what happened after the fact.
But my opinion about his commentary could not be politely expressed on this blog.
Maybe I really am a contrarian, but I see this as a buy and put away for decades opportunity.
Could I buy gold and silver more cheaply in a few weeks? Maybe. Maybe not.
Will it be available? Maybe, Maybe not.
Anyway I will continue to buy, at the rate of a small fraction of my available spare assets, because I believe there is a high probability that the dollar will buy less in the future and that includes ounces of gold that it will buy. I believe there is a high probability of a dollar collapse and/or a high probability of a world-wide currency collapse/change.
I don’t believe China is buying gold simply for heavy metal ballast for their ship of state, but because they know that the purchasing power of precious metals will be precious long after the dollar is ash in the bonfire of history.
Check the archive for last week and my commentary Friday. I told people to take at least some profits early last week, and on Friday I said that gold had to take advantage of a weak stock market and if it didn’t then gold was going to be in trouble in the intermediate time frame.
For those that took the warning they got out with most of their profits last week. I sold most of my metal positions in the metal portfolio early last week and exited the rest on the open this morning.
Now it’s time to go on vacation for metal trading for a while. The correction that Rick Rule and Doc are looking for has been confirmed today when gold broke the intermediate trend line.
Yes we are going to have lots of violent counter trend bounces over the next 2-3 months that are going to look very convincing, but they are going to fail just like they all failed this past fall.
The next big buying opportunity should come in either May or maybe as late as June. Until then I would trade something other than metals.
Gary, I listen to your commentaries every time and substantially try to ignore them. Be careful you don’t hurt yourself straddling the fence.
I am not a trader. I believe people that are persuaded to follow traders (by traders such as you) are not doing themselves a favor.
P.S. Gary, Pd is actually up today, so how much do your predictions about gold have to do with cyclicals as opposed to manipulative practices, and why do not the parallel considerations on gold apply to Palladium?
Why bother to even listen to my interviews then?
If you are a long term holder then short or intermediate term trading advice is worthless for you. For you it doesn’t matter what gold does this month or the next several months. You only care where it’s going three years from now.
However the vast majority of people can’t hold through a hard draw down. They end up selling at the bottom and then are so shell shocked they can’t re-enter.
I’m trying to help those traders avoid big draw downs.
Different people trade different time frames. Your’s is measured in years. Mine is measured in 2-4 months and sometimes in days if something doesn’t do what I expect it to do.
Gary, You are correct, Sir. This time.
The folks at Sprott posted an audio Question and Answer with Rick Rule today.
Lots of good stuff. Here is the link:
On a side note…
I know what I own and I am happy with my entry positions in both physical metal and the mining shares. To the extent that the miners violate moving averages here, I would be inclined to hold my existing positions but not add.
With regard to physical, I will be willing to add on weakness. Silver with a $19 handle or gold in the $1200s, is a place where I would be willing to add to my long-term holdings (and by long-term I mean until gold-backed currencies are created or my kids inherit the holdings). :o)
Have a good week, everybody.
And you too, Eric,
Sounds like 1050 gold is back on the table
If everyone agrees we’ll see $1180 chances that we get there are Slim to None;
and Slim left town with my girl friend.
I’m placing -20% stink bids on the strongest over 3 years.
I look at it this way the price of metals is being trashed because the market as it is now is a closed shop and insider market participants want to trash the price. They do it because they can and they want to. It has nothing to do with whether it is actually justified by wealth to ounce ratios or the desires of owners and producers.
All of those things don’t matter to those that run the market. The market as we know it is like soviet communism. It will continue untill it can ‘t and then there will be chaos. It will be this way barring a grand gesture of some sort because institutions and laws will not make room for and accomodate outsider interests.
The Goldman Sucks boys both said $1050 gold. If you refuse to listen you’re gonna get robbed.
I gotta tell you man, you and they could be absolutely correct. At this moment, I just find that hard to believe.
Goldman,,sends the signal,,and every no nothing jumps on………Goldman, is front running and baiting everyone on this planet……
They do seem to be in control. JP Morgan got sued how many times recently?
All just a cost of doing business Im sure.
Now, Ted Butler is going to sue, good luck Ted.
It doesn’t make a difference, these guys are so powerfull now they don’t car who knows how crooked they are.
But, sometimes they tell us where and which direction gold is going.
Nice they are to allow us to profit.
Gary what are your qualifications that allow you to give an expert advice on precious metals and other markets? Did you trade professionally before starting your subscription service? If not is your trading record public, whats your average ROI year to year?
I only go by what i could find here and there is no mentioning of any professional affiliations of any sort, experience at funds, banks etc. anything?
Gary Savage is a 48 year old retired entrepreneur living in Las Vegas. He has been investing in stocks and commodities for 10 years.
He publishes the Smart Money Tracker, a daily market newsletter available to subscribers along with the SMT blog tracking mostly stocks and commodities.
He also follows the COT reports as a way to gauge commercial sentiment in the stock and commodity markets.
So far this year of the 5 model portfolios stocks are up almost 3% while the stock market is down.
The commodity portfolio is up 11%.
The metal portfolio is up 5%.
Currency portfolio is up 1/2%.
The bond portfolio is down slightly.
I have a system that has worked for me over the years based on cycles, sentiment and a bit of technical analysis. Most people subscribe because they want to learn about cycles.
Gary, this year is only 3 months long. I was wondering about your year to year performance over long term.
So i take it you have no professional trading experience? (banks, funds anything?)
Well, Chris Temple said Gary is smarter than him on a technical basis.
So, other proffesionals seem to feel Garys work has validity.
I don’t see any reason to throw in the towel on gold just yet. It took a tremendous amount of cash to reverse the gold stocks from their persistent slide. Only the smart money crowd, with their vast resources could have accomplished such a dramatic and lengthy turn-around with many of the juniors appreciating over 100% within a few months. What do they know that we don’t? Usually, a lot. Gold may move side ways to down for a while but I wouldn’t count on it to be making it to Goldman’s target of $1050. I expect that at some point we will see a dramatic move up when everyone is looking the wrong way.
Goldman is shaking the tree one last time on behalf of the proverbial “someone”. They have the luxury of being able to afford being “wrong” this time because they were, unfortunately, right most of last year. There’s just too much ugly stuff brewing in the world and physical demand is still way too high to not finally overwhelm this paper market manipulation. The theory I have right now is that Goldman is shaking hard in anticipation of a change of regime in India where gold-favouring Modi appears cruising to victory in next month’s elections. The PTB in India reacted too little, too late in easing the import restrictions and when Modi flings the import door wide open again, the pent-up Indian demand is going to be breath-taking.
MAD……You make some very good points…..Thank You.
ManAboutDallas, its easy to blame it on manipulation when you dont understand how markets work. The majority has no clue it seems.
On March 24, 2014 at 12:21 pm,
Big Al says:
Your comment is exactly why we diversify.
Actually Al, his comment serves as a warning as to the lying and sorted story telling that is Gary Savage for anyone dumb enough to believe the nonsense.
Gary is fooling no-one with his recent history gains. It’s ODD, don’t you think? that he ignores his REMOVED huge losses from last year and the previous as well? That idiot got OWNED large, as predicted and as PREDICTED wiped clean, his losses that so far he’s NEVER (and never will) make back. It’s all to obvious to anyone with a CLUE.
What type of clown act is he pulling anyway? What type of clown act are YOU supporting, Al?
There’s not a soul out there following Gary that is anywhere NEAR break even let alone up over the last few years. his REMOVED, FORMER portfolio is testament to that. Is someone REALLY going to stand up and say he DID NOT hit the reset on those accounts? lol really?
The guy is a fool and anyone that actually pays this clown for commentary or advice is an even greater fool.
Al, you’re in bed, knowingly, with a liar. Guess what that makes you, Pal?
This Gary or Toby guy is all over the place. One minute he is talking about the stock market going on a meltup which it clearly isnt. Then he talks about gold skyrocketing then now he is not. Who knows,..every day he changes his mind like most of these so called experts.
Anyone wonder why he uses two names..kind of weird..