KER Commentary – Tue 1 Apr, 2014

At Mike’s suggestion we speak with both Doc and Gary

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show


Featuring:
Al KorelinCory FleckGary SavageRichard Postma

Comments:
  1. On April 1, 2014 at 11:23 am,
    Dress says:

    Nice how Gary is getting some mama support from the Doc. So sweet. ๐Ÿ™‚

    • On April 1, 2014 at 7:50 pm,
      ManAboutDallas says:

      So, Gary’s still turning ‘ya down for sex, eh Dress? What a drag……

      • On April 2, 2014 at 12:42 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Huh?

  2. On April 1, 2014 at 11:41 am,
    TenYear says:

    Miners look poised to rally right now. Base metals look ready to fall more. It would certainly help the sector to get more demand not only in the metals but also into emerging mkt equities themselves. If miners rise this week, the picture will get even more cloudy!

    • On April 1, 2014 at 5:23 pm,
      Cory says:

      I agree TenYear, some more demand sure would help the sector. I think we need to see some more stabilization in the metals prices before people start to move back into the stocks.

  3. On April 1, 2014 at 11:49 am,
    Mike says:

    Great interview! First of all, thanks very much Al for the mention, as well as bringing us this interview with both Doc and Gary. Both Gary and Doc have great perspectives on gold and the miners and listening to them together I think allows your listeners to gain more (comparative) insight into what may be ahead for the gold market.

    Both Doc and Gary seem to agree on the very short-term for gold on a possible bounce and gradual grind lower. Long-term I think both are (very?) bullish on gold, for the next 6-12 months+. Medium-term, for the next 4-8 weeks they disagree to some extent. Gary’s watching to see how low gold might go into June. Below $1200 or even 1100 depending on where support holds. Doc seems to be looking more for a low in gold by late April and in particular stated that he “might” get very bullish on the miners by the beginning of May. It’s hard to imagine that the miners will rally without the bullion turning up also. Very interesting. I really enjoyed both commentary in the same interview. As I mentioned yesterday, it will be interesting to see how this all plays out over the next 4-8 weeks. I think all agree that gold will be making new yearly highs before the end of 2014. Thanks much all!!

    • On April 1, 2014 at 1:12 pm,
      jj says:

      Interesting Mike, gold will make new highs by year end?….that’s what all the bulls said in 2012 and 13….whats changed…besides nothing, why not lower lows by Dec 2014, as long as capital continues flowing into US equities gold will be under stress and if the bulls think a collapsing Dow will shoot gold to the moon the liquidity crisis of 2008 had everything sell off hard! Why would it be any different this time?

      • On April 1, 2014 at 1:21 pm,
        Mike says:

        jj…What I meant by that statement was I thought gold would make a new 2014 yearly high, not an all-time high. I do think gold could hit around $1550 by year-end and agree with Gary and Doc on a bullish 2nd half of the year. I read your comments on Rick’s interview and agree that Gary has been correct on this short-term top. Not sure of how low we go or when gold turns higher though. Good info coming from Gary, Doc and Rick…with some differing perspectives.

        • On April 1, 2014 at 1:37 pm,
          jj says:

          Understood Mike as I thought you were really bullish looking for a New High in 2014…must say the likes of Sinclair and Sprott who got the run from 2000 to 2011 soooo correctly but as we all know have been on the wrong side of the trend for 2+ years!!, having them suggest $2000+ = Sprott and the ultimate high a couple years out of $50gs!! = Sinclair rather silly…gold can’t close above a key level on the weekly chart at $1424….let alone those targets, sr moments for both perhaps,lol

        • On April 1, 2014 at 1:38 pm,
          Skeeta says:

          Whilst it would be nice….I’d be totally shocked if gold closed year-end as high as 1550.

  4. On April 1, 2014 at 11:54 am,
    Mike says:

    One last thought on the interview with both Gary and Doc. What do you other listeners think of having occasional, combined interviews with regular contributors on the KER? I really enjoyed it and found it very informative to have commentary from more than one contributor at the same time.

  5. On April 1, 2014 at 12:00 pm,
    proud canuck says:

    I like the idea of joint interviews…batting ideas back and forth, but this one would not play ๐Ÿ™

    • On April 1, 2014 at 1:24 pm,
      Bird Man says:

      Does not play for me either. Gives me an error message. No matter…I already have my own opinion and the outlook is not bright for this month.

      • On April 1, 2014 at 1:34 pm,
        Skeeta says:

        The audio plays automatically for me guys.

        • On April 1, 2014 at 2:19 pm,
          Bird Man says:

          Still won’t play. When I click the link the following message pops up:

          “We’re sorry!
          It seems that the page you are looking for cannot be found. This probably happened because you used an old link or bookmark to get here. As you can tell, we recently redesigned the website, so all old links will no longer work. Please updated your bookmarks!”

          I have never seen that before. None of the other interviews have ever given that result. Maybe this problem can be fixed. I would like to hear the interview.

          • On April 1, 2014 at 2:34 pm,
            Skeeta says:

            Bird, you also stated yo had problems reading the comments on Rick’s site….They also loaded without a problem for me. Maybe the problem is at your end ? Might be time to give the computer a reboot ?

          • On April 1, 2014 at 3:57 pm,
            Bird Man says:

            You are correct Skeeta. Some of us may have outdated browsers. Three people could not listen in to this interview though so I am not alone here. All the rest of the interviews played just fine…..what is different about this one I wonder?

      • On April 1, 2014 at 3:51 pm,
        Goldman says:

        I think the joint interviews are great. Three people even better . Adding a chart with combined 1 week, 1 month, 3 month 6 month predictions given high and low scenarios would be incredible

  6. On April 1, 2014 at 1:29 pm,
    Bonzo Barzini says:

    I would love an occasional joint interview with Alf Field, Jim Sinclair, Pierre Lassonde, and Bobby Knight.

    • On April 1, 2014 at 1:31 pm,
      Bird Man says:

      I would love to hear Gary debate Ben Bernanke!

      • On April 1, 2014 at 4:21 pm,
        Mike says:

        I’d rather see Moo-chelle and Nicki Minaj mud wrestle to the tune of Starships. ๐Ÿ˜‰

  7. On April 1, 2014 at 1:52 pm,
    james (the lesserrr) says:

    Al – why should you be worried if gold is insurance?

    Insurance is something you want to have but never want to use.

    No?

  8. On April 1, 2014 at 1:54 pm,
    james (the lesserrr) says:

    Al – You do know I am being sarcastic, right?

  9. On April 1, 2014 at 1:56 pm,
    SD Marc says:

    http://www.deviantinvestor.com/5667/5667/ Listen to GARY! It is YOUR choice whether to follow his logic or not. Pretty simple….well done Gary!

  10. On April 1, 2014 at 2:32 pm,
    John says:

    It will not play, at last check. I sure would like to listen to this one.

    • On April 1, 2014 at 3:55 pm,
      Bird Man says:

      OK….I am not alone here then…..can the IT guy please step up to the plate?

  11. On April 1, 2014 at 5:27 pm,
    Cory says:

    We are sorry that some of you can not listen to the interview. It should play just fine in the player on the page. When you try to download this editorial it does go to an error message. I will take a look into it now and hopefully it will be fixed shortly.

    • On April 1, 2014 at 5:31 pm,
      Bird Man says:

      Many thanks Cory. I need my Doc fix you know!

  12. On April 1, 2014 at 6:54 pm,
    b says:

    I thought it was great having Doc and Gary on together.
    Awfull powerfull combo to me.

    • On April 2, 2014 at 12:40 pm,
      Big Al says:

      We will do more of that in the future.

  13. On April 1, 2014 at 8:00 pm,
    ManAboutDallas says:

    Gary: Are there any precedents when the Yearly Cycle Low has come early? When has this happened, if it has, and what were the circumstances and what was the subsequent outcome? Your gloom is understandable, but I sense you’re suffering from an extreme case of “recency bias” because you seem to be ignoring some impending fundamental factors that, taken together, can only be construed as bullish for gold.

    • On April 2, 2014 at 6:21 am,
      Gary says:

      The fundamentals have been bullish for gold for the last year and a half. Based on the fundamentals gold never should have had a bear market to begin with. I’m bearish because I recognize that the metals have been, and are still being manipulated artificially lower.

      • On April 2, 2014 at 7:22 am,
        ManAboutDallas says:

        Agreed, but what about my question : Has the Yearly Cycle Low ever come early ? And, if it has, what effect did this have and what was the subsequent outcome?

        • On April 2, 2014 at 8:19 am,
          Jay123 says:

          ManAboutDallas,

          The market can do anything. If Gary tells you “no” that doesn’t meant the cycle can’t come early. If he tells you “yes” and it had “such and such effect” then it doesn’t mean it won’t have a different effect next time it happens. In other words, Gary’s predictions and trading methods won’t necessarily make you any money whatsoever….in fact I think it’s a lot more likely just the opposite could happen. ๐Ÿ˜‰

          • On April 2, 2014 at 4:33 pm,
            ManAboutDallas says:

            I guess you’re not aware of the immortal words of The Bard, “… the past.. is prologue”. I am, and that’s why I like to know if there’ve been precedents for events. They add to one’s understanding and remind one that if something has happened before, it can happen again.

          • On April 2, 2014 at 4:37 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Yes it can happen again and it usually does!