In Europe only 1 thing goes down is EMPLOYEES WAGES ! The european union is a total disaster !!!!!!!! THE SHEEPLE HATE THE UNION AND THE EURO !

MORE ! RONALD REAGAN ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mN3z3eSVG7A

Agree Chris. All eyes are turning back to Europe again and investors are advised to pay attention. If and when a QE program is announced and implemented it will be a game changing event. The market clearly approved of what it heard today as well. We have just come a giant step closer with the first confirmation that the board is openly discusssing exceptional intervention. Indeed, the ECB Governing Council is now “unanimous in its commitment to using all unconventional instruments within its mandate, including QE” noted Mr Draghi. Although the market did not respond to this statement too vigourously we do note that this is an important departure from past statements and the door has now been opened to a Euro wide bond buying program. The design and implementation are now what will be the discussion point rather than a reliance on rate guidance as the major feature of their agenda. Drahgi further confirmed that QE was under discussion at the Councils meeting today. I had been anticipated such a signal coming and would have been quite satisfied with a hint however what we got instead was a neon sign and a strong message that more aggressive steps were now being seriously considered especially as the very low rate of inflation readings this past month had come as a surprise to the group. Everything is now on the table. I do not believe this is just jawboning as some analysts have stated although you can forgive the market for cynicism as most efforts thus far to instill confidence have relied on communications and not action. The Euro responded favourably today in my opinion and we now have confirmations on both the Euro and dollar charts that a stronger trend has taken shape suggesting the Euro willl decline for some time to come. As I noted the other day it is my belief this will be negative for gold through the spring as a rising dollar will create headwinds to precious metals advancing. I await some additional commentary from the Bundesbank in the meantime confirming that resistance to QE is no longer the major stumbling block it once was. It is my view though that front running an announcement on European intervention that now looks inevitable has not been this favourable at any time in the recent past. Cutting rates is simply not enough. Negative rates are too risky a gambit and therfore that only leaves direct monetary intervention in the form of asset buying to stimulate the region and drive down both the Euro and the unemployment rate while stimulating some inflationary expectations. Overall I was pretty happy with what I heard. I believe we could get the first new real program just as the Fed winds up its QE this coming summer. In the meantime, gold does not look like a great bet against this backdrop. Policy is a far more important factor in that commodities future than just about any other fundamental reason now.

Well, one day after the Draghi comments we now have the Euro below 1.37. That was a hundred pip move in 24 hours so there is some satisfaction in that for those who also believed we would hear QE being talked up by the Chair for the first time in the past 5 years.

I have no doubt some of you thought I was nuts for suggesting my strong belief it would be added to the agenda and finally given serious consideration at yesterdays meeting. But here we are…..I did call it correctly and the monetary council at the ECB is unanimous in paving the way to greater accommodative measures (read: printing).

And please do not understate the importance of that one word “unanimous” if you continue to have lingering doubts about the seriousness and resolve of the committee.

Metals went a little limp on the news although only silver faltered. Not much fireworks were expected just yet anyway. That is still coming a little later down the road. The larger Euro trend is still up though. It remains to be seen if the communications employed between now and summer when a program is likely to be announced will keep the currency below 1.40 but lets make no mistake that a QE in one form or another is virtually guaranteed for Europe at this stage. We can therefore plan our choices more easily on that basis as this is being telegraphed with clarity and deliberation.

I am betting this process will be played to the wire though. From perhaps June forward the dollar will enter a long term strengthening period as US QE is wound down and Euro QE comes on stream. Inversely the Euro will fall. I will be looking for a Euro near 1.20 a year or more hence therefore and I believe the market, as it digests the ECB comments, will slowly price in this change over the next months.

So it is a good probability 1.40 holds to the topside as a ceiling with better than average odds 1.20 will be the longer term target to watch for down the road. Lets not forget that just a measly 50 basis point decline in inflation numbers will add untold misery to real rates across the pond. Based on the trajectory we will be there by summer so actions are already being planned and this will go quite beyond just talk at each new meeting.

If US rates rise by next spring (bank on it) we have a double whammy forming for gold into early 2015 and that suggests it might only be a crisis that will really move metals or they don’t responsive until the onset of inflation we really start to feel. It now looks like it will take quite a lot more time before gold gets real traction with a possibility that another year or more could pass before real excitement returns.

But please take into consideration that the large market making moves are now telling us precious metals are not quite the slam-dunk bet that some in the analyst community might lead us to believe. The time is not yet right. A grind is much more likely than a moon shot.

As the markets come to terms with the three major considerations of rate changes, interventionist policy and the portents of inflation arising they will become less enamored of gold and silver. The reason is simple….there is much easier money to be made elsewhere on bets related to policy dictates. Fed QE is going to end. Make no mistake about that. European QE is coming…..we have just been forewarned.

Betting against these major trends could be costly.