The Screaming Fundamentals For Owning Gold
Our buddy over at Peak Prosperity Chris Martenson outline the fundamentals for owning gold – in the physical form. Chris uses the factors of monetary recklessness, negative real interest rates, massively increasing deficits, and risks to the banking system all as reasons to own gold. While we all know the fundamentals are there for a higher gold price this does not mean it will happen in the short or even mid-term.
Tune in this weekend as we will be having Chris on the weekend show.
Maybe jj, but fundamentals are pretty much all that I go by. Rest assured I also consider sentiment as being a strong fundamental.
Pop Goes The Money Bubble
Kim Greenhouse interviews James Turk (1 hour)
-this lady knows her stuff and does a good interview.
Thanks Irwin.
James I’ve haven’t made a correct call regarding Gold, Silver or the US$ in 2 years!…that JT…LOL….these guys keep pounding the table about the same crap that never unfolds….eventually (maybe) when it does they will of course claim bottom calls and I told you so….look up an old interview of JT same crap different day…man how long can these guys get it wrong!
jj, are you HH’s ring snatcher?
lol to infinity
No not at all…just wouldn’t want anyone to put their hard earned money behind any call JT makes….he has a loooooooooooooooooong way to go before his calls create a trend of being correct.
Perhaps it could be fairly said that J Turk has an agenda. I’d hate to think that is the case, but it is possible that some of these “bugs” have an agenda. I too am tired of hearing the same old calls regarding gold, from many. However, I hope this time they will be right – my “insurance portfolio” will be happy.
Great point Derek….so many of these Gold Guru’s are well long and wrong!….you wouldn’t have to stretch ones imagination to think they are all pump and dump schills…I’d rather have them address todays price of gold and silver vs to da moon end of the US$ economic collapse and HYPERinflation…good grief!!!
I know James pretty well Derek,
I am fully convinced that what you see is what you get. Yes they make money from Goldmoney.com, but so what? I believe that he has a sound philosophy. (Assuming that you are not a daily trader.)
People who started taking part in goldmoney.com at the beginning have done pretty well to this point!
Al,
Thank you for this comment/information.
Great point jj,
That is why this site is much more than just one opinion!
Sorry who is JT?
And, now I know. Sorry for the stupid question.
The proof of the pudding is in the eating. These days too many people think like traders rather than investors, and if you’re a trader you’re up against big time pros with huge advantages technologically. The billionaires of this world are not traders, they’re investors, I’ve met some personally. The fact of the matter is, wealth is moving from west to east, based on fundamentals; that’s a trend and it will continue. Yes, patience is required, but the whole childish philosophy of the west is based on instant gratification and emotional highs, and that will not travel well.
Arnie…you are SPOT ON….you just NAILED why we are in the PM’s…u trade this market or dabble in margin at your own risk!
You are right Arnie D.
Take it from a guy who knows, instant gratification is not what those folks are all about.
jj – why dont you stop crying in your handkerchief and take your depends off
no crying at this end james…I gave up years ago on the fundamentals and the guru’s….maybe you should try a little humour in your life and not take everything so personal…you can say whatever you want to me, factual or not, as I not a pump and dump guru….have a happy day james!
if youve read what i have been saying for years you would know that i too agree the fundamentals mean nothing, its all about price. To be more specific, it is all about value, and edge. That is what I live by. No one can price gold. so it becomes a momentum play – on the way up and on the way down. Sentiment will drive it, and sentiment will change.
right now gold has been beaten down so much I do not think there is that much more to go, in terms of price or time. I could be wrong.
I would rather be a year or two early in this market or a day late.
i dont follow gurus, never have, never will.
humor is a funny thing – How do you know I was not being humorous with you?
Have a great day jj!
Now – I have one question for you jj – are you the same jj that used to debate me a few years ago?
if i remember you were a big gold bull and the you dropped out of site
same jj, james….when the key level of $1550 Gold and $26.00 Silver fell I went short as the chart action suggested….those were major support zones that needed to hold.
I do remember now that you’ve never been a fundamental investor or hang your hat on any guru…..still winning at the horse track?
jj – welcome back. yes it is all coming back to now. had some good conversations.
i havent played the races in quite a while now. i posted my reasons on this blog a few months ago.
however i am seriously thinking of getting back in, because frankly as i examine these markets (stocks, gold, housing) they are all casinos imho.
the central planners and banksters have distorted these markets so much it is becoming nearly impossible to get a handle on it
i always said invest in what you know
good to have you back!
Well we are certainly in 100% agreement with you ol’chap regarding do what you know well no sense in trying to re-invent the wheel.
Since 2008 the global central bankers have screwed with every trend they see as a negative….fed minutes today suggest a dovish approach so lookie-lookie up goes the S&P
Live is but a casino……………..
Great dialog The Greater and jj.
Many thanks,
Big Al
J the L…….They were manipulation the ..GEE , GEES , long before the markets…if you won then you were one of the few who did .
How are you doing Mr. Irish
For the Dow/gold ratio to reach the ideal 2:1 ratio one of three things must happen. Gold must spike sharply higher to meet the Dow’s current price… 2) The Dow will crash to meet gold or.. 3) A combination of the two will happen.
I will go with option three.
What that tells me then is that gold will run counter cyclical to the stock market or we cannot reach that magic number without a major crisis being the result. The Dow crashing to 1350 would pretty much result in a world ending economic emergency just as gold rising to 17,000 would mean our currency has become worthless.
In a more orderly world it seems probable that the Dow does not fall below say 5400 as an absolute low point nor that gold exceeds 2700 dollars. For the Dow that would mean a decline of 66% if it began right now today and did not end until gold had reached my 2700 dollar target. (example Dow 5400/ gold 2700 = DW ratio of 2.00).
Well that looks sensible. It even looks reasonable given where we are at and the risk outlook.
But as stocks keep rising and gold falling it begins to throw my theory out the window and none of it matches up with Fibonacci retrace estimates after awhile. Also the alternate outcomes become more dangerous. Right now we are heading into one of the strongest months for stocks traditionally and by coincidence (or not) one of the weakest months for gold.
So gold will be falling while the Dow is again on the rise which increases the ratio on the one hand but also suggests that a subsequent decline in stocks will be steeper or that gold prices must be quite a bit higher than my 2700 estimate.
You could play with these numbers all day and not arrive at a final answer though. What it looks like to me though is that the market might be near its peak and gold already nearing its final low. These things can take a lot of time to play out though. And both numbers move so it gets to be a mind bender how it might all turn out in the end. So no need to jump to any quick conclusions.
Maybe the real question here is this….what seems most probable rather than what is it we would prefer? If the powers that be really have control over the markets how then would they engineer the ratio to be acceptable? We are all pretty certain the ratio will keep going down but how exactly it ends is probably unknown to all but the Lord.
The only thing we can ascertain with certainty is that gold MUST rise and the Dow MUST fall if we are too meet option three as suggested above and still have a functioning economic and financial system when it is all over.
So while I am of the belief that gold will fall this spring and that stocks will keep rising I am also leaning to the idea that both those price moves will reverse again during the summer thus bringing the ratio back to where we started and getting us set up for the big moves that lie ahead.
Does it seem to anyone else that stocks crash in September perhaps and gold takes off in response? What does seem most probable as we approach a peak in one market and a low in the other? Timing is of the essence here.
Fundamentals are for dreamers….Price is everything!….the fundamentals for owning gold are strong today than the past 14 years yet gold struggles to take out a key weekly level that would turn the past 2+ year bear action to bullish action…$1425…Fundamentals is like the perfect sports team on paper but can’t win the Big game