Gary Savage – Wed 9 Apr, 2014

Wednesday morning comments from Gary

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Featuring:
Al KorelinCory FleckGary Savage

Comments:
  1. On April 9, 2014 at 9:07 am,
    Gary says:

    Here is the article by Plunger. Its a very good read on how bear markets usually end.

    http://www.safehaven.com/article/33369/phase-iii-annihilation-in-the-precious-metals-marketsare-you-serious

    • On April 9, 2014 at 9:42 am,
      HEAVYHITTER says:

      THIS IS WHERE IT ENDS…..HERE AND NOW.

      RAMBUS HAS BEEN DEAD WRONG SHORTING AT THE BOTTOM IN DEC. 13

      This is not supporting your view. …..ITS GARBAGE.

      GOLD HAS BEEN BASING FOR A YEAR.

      Now watch what happens….gold will print much higher prices in the future.

      In 2 months this garbage is going to look very STUPID. Maybe in 2 weeks.

      Or hope for a big black swan….you ain’t buying gold for your dream price.

      The bullion banks can’t supply it at lower numbers. HELL

      YOUR WIRES ARE CROSSED WITH RAMBUS who knows squat

      HELLO !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      • On April 9, 2014 at 9:53 am,
        Gary says:

        Actually Rambus didn’t write that article. The author goes by the name plunger and he did a very extensive research of over 150 years of historical bear market data.

        He’s showing you how the final emotional phase typically ends. This has nothing to do with fundamentals. This is purely emotional. Just like the final bottom for stocks in 2009 was a purely emotional event and had nothing to do with fundamentals. The Fed had already started QE in Nov.

        It’s not set in stone that the bear has to end in capitulation. It could end as a long consolidation. That’s what has been going on for the last year. But that isn’t the norm for a big bear market. They usually don’t stop until they enter that final emotional phase.

        • On April 9, 2014 at 10:06 am,
          HEAVYHITTER says:

          Doesn’t prove anything. Gold had been base building for a year.
          Bullion banks can’t supply gold at much lower prices.

          AGAIN…..AGAIN…. and if it came from Rambus …his constitute The Plunger.

          THEY ARE BOTH WRONG…..unless we get a big black swan. Doubtful

      • On April 9, 2014 at 9:57 am,
        Marc, San Diego says:

        HERE IS THE BOTTOM LINE: There will come a time when you will either have physical gold and silver OR you wont…the door will CLOSE fast and furious and when the rush takes place by the masses it will be way too late and/or the price per ounce will be outlandishly high.

        • On April 9, 2014 at 10:04 am,
          Gary says:

          Marc,
          Nonsense, that’s not how markets work. If there isn’t enough supply then price will rise to a level that brings supply back into the market. The universal law of supply and demand has been governing markets for as long as there have been markets. I grantee it hasn’t somehow been magically repealed.

          All this talk of the Comex defaulting is just ridiculous. The law of supply and demand will prevent it from happening. Look what happened the last time supply became constricted at the 2008 bottom. The price of gold immediately rocketed back up to $1000 and voila supply came back into the market.

          • On April 9, 2014 at 10:14 am,
            Eric says:

            That was Marc’s point — that you could have a situation in which to pry lose that incremental ounce of physical gold from someone causes a dramatic price re-set. Increasingly, it is being transferred into hands that want to own it permanently.

          • On April 9, 2014 at 10:16 am,
            Lawrence says:

            Gold silver do get a overwhelming paper market. People may take the last once of physical and what the next buyer gets?

          • On April 9, 2014 at 3:55 pm,
            irishtony says:

            Gary…..Nonsense….you just don’t get it………Manipulation …there are no markets.

      • On April 9, 2014 at 10:00 am,
        HEAVYHITTER says:

        Not only is the HUI tremendously undervalued currently.

        Should be trading at no less than 300 HUI

        Again, the bullion banks can’t suppy gold much lower at these prices.

        1250 is the bottom floor. Gold is building steam here. It will break out
        soon in the next few months and 1500 is not going to be a pipe dream.
        A year of base building tells the story. 2000 gold this year or more.

        • On April 9, 2014 at 12:08 pm,
          gary says:

          The HUI has been hideously undervalued for over a year. Bear markets aren’t about fundamentals or valuation, they are about emotions.

          • On April 9, 2014 at 12:19 pm,
            HEAVYHITTER says:

            True, but you fail to realize the bargains ate behind us…unless black swan.

            You should be buying not worried about bargains that refuse to materialize.

            180 HUI that was the fire sale dec. 13.

            150 HUI in 08 was on a black swan

            HOW COULD YOU MISS THIS. Don’t need charts or cycles.

            The bargains came and gone. Hell….The prices today will be gone.

          • On April 9, 2014 at 4:06 pm,
            Birdman says:

            Agree with that Gary. Well said.

    • On April 9, 2014 at 10:36 am,
      HEAVYHITTER says:

      Whats the difference. …RAMBUS wants you to believe it.

      He may as well ha written it.

      THE GARBAGE CAME FROM HIM.

  2. On April 9, 2014 at 9:11 am,
    b says:

    We have seen the final give up phase a year ago! What are you waiting for, Gary?

    • On April 9, 2014 at 9:55 am,
      Gary says:

      Last year was the point of recognition phase not a final capitulation.

      And I have missed nothing. I got in close to the bottom of the last rally and exited at the exact top on Mar. 17. I did the same thing during the last rally. got in early and exited at almost the exact top on Sept. 3.

      I’m not missing anything. And if gold does decide to continue higher I will get in once it makes it back above the $1350 resistance zone.

      • On April 9, 2014 at 10:00 am,
        Lawrence says:

        Was it 1260? I remember.

      • On April 9, 2014 at 10:13 am,
        Lawrence says:

        The correction was really sharp during April and June last year. The overall correction is 38% for gold from the top. It is THE worse correction since 1980. I am not sure how we define capitulation. In my years of investiment, it was the worst ever, especially for silver and gold stocks. Gold stocks correct 70-95%. How much more do we need? 100%?

      • On April 9, 2014 at 10:20 am,
        Eric says:

        that’s where the room for disagreement is…. whether 2013 represented the capitulation. Given the slope of the decline and the percentage losses among the mining shares, my guess is yes.

        You say no. That’s fine. Now we wait and find out.

      • On April 9, 2014 at 10:22 am,
        b says:

        Respect! Very good for some who is normally not better than a tossed coin according to

        http://www.cxoadvisory.com/14562/individual-gurus/gary-savage-tracking-smart-money/

        BTW, I thiiiiiink it were the EXACT tops and bottoms.

  3. On April 9, 2014 at 9:12 am,
    b says:

    You already missed the buy of a generation. Bad luck. ;-(

  4. On April 9, 2014 at 9:16 am,
    b says:

    Who is this imposter using my “b”?
    Guess I will go to a double b, should I own a ranch that’s how Ill brand the cows, bb

    • On April 9, 2014 at 9:21 am,
      J........the Long.............ootb says:

      Then you can be the bb gun……….and shot the bull in the back side and get him moving……………

    • On April 9, 2014 at 9:41 am,
      Paul L says:

      You could try bj.

    • On April 9, 2014 at 12:54 pm,
      Birdman says:

      I thought that was not you B. Your temper is much more even and relaxed. I was kind of puzzled by the tone of the remarks coming from alternate world b and thinking it might not really be you. Most of these programs don’t allow duplicate names though.

      • On April 9, 2014 at 4:54 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Bird, see my comment on this issue. This individual is starting to make us very angry!

    • On April 9, 2014 at 4:53 pm,
      Big Al says:

      If that is not you b, then we pretty much know who it is. That will be rectified tomorrow. As the Men’s Warehouse guy says, “I guarantee it”

  5. On April 9, 2014 at 9:17 am,
    b says:

    My prediction: Gary will be stopped out.

    • On April 9, 2014 at 12:09 pm,
      gary says:

      I think your prediction isn’t going to work out for you 🙂

  6. On April 9, 2014 at 9:24 am,
    gerard says:

    gary thinks too much

    • On April 9, 2014 at 9:44 am,
      b says:

      My speech! (OMG: “I thiiiiink….”)

  7. On April 9, 2014 at 9:50 am,
    Lawrence says:

    My suggestion – if you are long term investor, don’t worry about the day to day move. If you are a trader, don’t worry about the bear or bull market. Otherwise your emotion will be sucked dry. It only confuses you and tortures you. I am lighting up a bit now to wait for June. If the dump happens I am happy to pick up more. Otherwise I am happy with my left over large position. I will use the money to buy other stocks after the conventional market corrects.

    • On April 9, 2014 at 10:08 am,
      Lawrence says:

      Actually I was lighting up in both precious metal and conventional market in March. I now have very little conventional stocks. I only have China, Hongkong and some resource stocks in Canada and a lot of cash.

      • On April 9, 2014 at 10:19 am,
        Lawrence says:

        Sorry plus 50% in Gold/silvers and related stocks.

  8. On April 9, 2014 at 9:54 am,
    b says:

    good article

  9. On April 9, 2014 at 9:59 am,
    b says:

    OOps, bb, altho “”bb gun” is good but its a lot of typing.

  10. On April 9, 2014 at 10:23 am,
    Goldman says:

    I don’t know that the next Equity Bear will commence like the last one. Why should we assume it will? Mom and pop investor have been burned twice in the last 14 years by playing in equities. The top 20% of this country of the population owns 95% of financial wealth. Meaning 80% of this country has only 5% of the financial wealth. I doubt we hear the butcher and baker giving stock tips this time around. Other than the automatic billions that pour into the 401K’s mom and pop isnt betting the house like before. Sure they will pay the price when it all falls but the gambling is going on full scale with that top 20%. The next fall will not look like the last one. I am not sure we can get a huge 10-20% spike from here to make that parabolic rise and top….does it feel like the S& P could go to 2200 with all the doubters? Seems like that would take a miricle. I think what topples this market will be a quick correction into the mid 1700’s that will trip the 200 day moving avg. Then this will destabilize all the things we have seen growing: margin, tech, bio and all the rest. Couple this with high currency around the world and unstable markets and we may get whoosh out the door that increases after that first pop once people get really scared.

    I can see 1925—maybe 1975 but a huge rally will really scare the talking heads. It won’t be the weather I can tell you that.

    To borrow the B.S. lingo…it will be a “rotation” from equities into gold and silver as inflation explodes and Granny Fed is determined to keep interest rates on the floor.

  11. On April 9, 2014 at 10:24 am,
    BTFD says:

    I agree with plunger on most of his data, but his timing is incorrect in my opinion. When the S&P 500 is heading back under 1000 again in the next 2 years or sooner to new lows guess where gold and the miners will be ( everything will get sold). Gold will also be headed under a 1000 like it was in 2008. When the flush is complete that will be the start of the new Bull for gold and silver ( gold will head to new highs). Until then all these calls of new highs and new lows will just punish both sides. I only short-term trade, so I play both sides, but the more folks that call for gold to going to 1000 this summer makes it more likely it will go to 1450 first….then you might get your call for gold headed back to 1000 with lots of new bulls on the train. Now, this is just my opinion like all the others here and I could be wrong. However, all these other calls could be incorrect….I say we shall see.

    So, I agree with plunger, but not his timing. Again, we shall see.

  12. On April 9, 2014 at 10:27 am,
    Brad Jenson says:

    Whereas Gary and Rambus may very well be right, we may find that there is a “Vladimir Putin put” under the gold market which may make Doc’s prediction more likely. I just had a conversation with a Goldman rep. They think the S&P500 will take a 10% dip—very soon (like now)—and end the year at 1900. If they are right, then Gary’s stock euphoria stage will not materialize. (Of course, Goldman has a downside target on gold which is very bearish.) Time will tell . . .

  13. On April 9, 2014 at 10:34 am,
    JJ says:

    Biotech up 300-400%
    Banks – 300-400%
    Tech – 300-400$

    Gold – nobody owns it.
    goldstocks – I own most of them in huge size and no one else seems ot have any.

    The capitulation IMHO happens last year. Why? Since I and the machines are the strong hands and we bought them all from the crappy pants weak hands in the last 18 months.

    The movement from weak hands to strong hands is the key. There are few weak hands left.

    • On April 9, 2014 at 4:13 pm,
      irishtony says:

      JJ….BIO up..Banks.up..Tech up……NO SUPRISE….lots of free money from the FED….
      MUST KEEP THE COMODITES DOWN……Especially those nasty GOLDS & SILVERS.

  14. On April 9, 2014 at 10:46 am,
    Rudy says:

    Gary is done. A toggler par excellence. Get new guests.

    How many more “one more legs down”?

    • On April 9, 2014 at 12:02 pm,
      b says:

      🙂

  15. On April 9, 2014 at 11:44 am,
    TenYear says:

    The Fed is acting as if they are worried about inflation even though the numbers don’t back it up. Even they can’t imagine there is no hint of inflation after all of their stimulus. Which is why they want everyone prepared for a rate increase of not just .25 or .50 but even something extraordinary like 2%-3% should they need to act. Miners could pop 25% or more from here. Several good looking setups.

  16. On April 9, 2014 at 1:23 pm,
    Mike says:

    While gold was up only $3.40 (4pm et) I think it was a surprise based on the surprisingly dovish FOMC minutes. Gary, Doc and others have already been interviewed today. IMO the question for them tomorrow, regarding gold (as well as equities), is does this change anything regarding the short-to-medium term direction for gold. I think it is positive for equities and will help lead to new highs. Most are bullish on gold long-term. Tomorrow should be interesting…

  17. On April 9, 2014 at 2:05 pm,
    Tim says:

    Please somebody help me out here! How can you say gold is struggling to go over such and such and people are calling one top one bottom etc. but if the gold is being manipulated and “the boys” are keeping gold down then how can you call these moves? If it is manipulated how can you call anything?

  18. On April 9, 2014 at 2:24 pm,
    Yrag says:

    Gary is down huge % over last 2 years and his subs are bleeding to death. His forecast is a guess and if he had any moral fiber he would post his track record instead of just telling everyone else that they are wrong.

    Stay away from him. He is just as dangerous as Rambus.

    • On April 9, 2014 at 2:36 pm,
      b says:

      He’s not really dangerous. He’s a bit worse than a tossing coin. Only if one believes Gary that he picks the tops and bottoms he becomes a dangerous dude to your wealth. Of course, in his own view he picks the EXACT tops and bottoms. LOL. 🙂

      Here are the facts:
      http://www.cxoadvisory.com/14562/individual-gurus/gary-savage-tracking-smart-money/

      Please don’t ask him to post his track record. That’s not fair. He is more of an in-hindsight trader. But a very successful one. 🙂

    • On April 9, 2014 at 2:37 pm,
      Lawrence says:

      This is mean. You don’t have to listen to him if you believe so..

  19. On April 9, 2014 at 4:20 pm,
    irishtony says:

    Great to see so many new names coming in to have a say…..Truth is NOBODY HAS A CLUE…….IT’s ONE HUGE SCAM……You are all right…at the same time , you are all wrong.

    • On April 9, 2014 at 4:35 pm,
      bb says:

      What I have noticed, is Gary gets some good bashing for awhile, (no idea why)(unless its the normal “bring a person down” crowd) then he gets a few calls right and they go away for awhile. Then they appear again, maybe its the same person/people over and over again?

      In any case, I like the way Gary sees the market. I like the cycles,
      I also think, Doc and Gary are a powerfull combo,

      • On April 9, 2014 at 4:58 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Thanks for a bit of sanity, bb!

      • On April 10, 2014 at 4:09 am,
        Gary says:

        It is the same person. Hal, Dress, Seb, etc. They are all the same person posting from the same IP address. He’s just doing what trolls do…

        • On April 10, 2014 at 7:41 am,
          Birdman says:

          Its the same IP? You guys know that? Why not just ban it and be done with the nonsense?

  20. On April 9, 2014 at 5:20 pm,
    Eric says:

    Precisely!

  21. On April 10, 2014 at 12:21 am,
    William Phelps (Tokyo) says:

    Sorry to come to this thread a bit late. I live in Japan so your afternoon is my morning.

    I think Gary’s a really great trader. I think this is just a simple fact. I think he has good tools, plus a lot of experience as a gold trader these past 10 yrs. In real time he sees what IS happening, and puts his kahunas on the line. I alsoI think he’s right about a lot of things – cycles, manipulation or “mgmt” of gold’s price, that fundamentals are important but emotions trump it all (’cause in the end, it’s people buying/selling).

    The one thing that still throws me is his strong confidence. I’m not confident, is why. And I have a hard time sync’ing 3 or 4 tools like he does – cycles, sentiment, TA, and 1 or 2 more – I have a hard time just sticking to 1 tool.

    I’ve watched Gary for several yrs, and as far as I can tell he’s legit, and is very profitable. Much much more than I ever hope to be.

    And as an aside, he’s generous too …. with his time via email to explain/educate folks like me, and also w/his money … he does stuff that makes a real difference in the lives of folks around him. When was the last time you or I ever paid off a friends mortgage? That kind of big, impacting stuff, that helps real people.

    This blog and team of coaches is teaching me a lot. Thanks Al and Cory for having it.

  22. On April 10, 2014 at 1:50 am,
    CFS says:

    I believe Gary to be incorrect.

    This is a difficult statement to make since Gary has a tendency to stand on both sides of a fence.
    I have previously stated my views on both gold and the general market, which remain unchanged.

    • On April 10, 2014 at 2:07 am,
      Eric says:

      He generally is on both sides of the fence using his different time frames which make him look always right. A cheap parlor trick, btw.

      But now he made a clear and bold statement for a change. His prediction: stock markets will go to feverish euphoria levels and gold will go into capitulation phase and down close to $1000.

      Finally we can clearly measure what his predictions and insights are worth. My guess: nothing!

      So he bought some shares with a tight stop. He expects to make a 20-30% profit. Then when gold is down he will load up the truck.

      My comment: good luck with that scenario. Obviously Gary is not following the markets only his wishful thinking. He will be stopped out, reverse course and claim that this is exactly what he expected (“if this and that would and bla bla bla would happen”).

      • On April 10, 2014 at 3:28 am,
        Birdman says:

        Wow. Surgery makes you angry, Eric.

      • On April 10, 2014 at 4:08 am,
        Gary says:

        Sorry to disappoint you but now I’m already into decent profits and have my stop moved up to break even.

        • On April 10, 2014 at 4:45 am,
          Eric says:

          What do you call decent profits?

          • On April 10, 2014 at 6:03 am,
            Gary says:

            I’m saying we have strong hand status after yesterdays rally and we can now move our stop up to break even and not worry about a meaningless wiggle knocking us out of the trade.

            If the market reverses all of yesterdays rally then I’m going to be wrong about a daily cycle low occurring on Tuesday and we will stop out at break even. No harm no foul.

            If I’m right and Thursday was a daily cycle bottom then we now have a brand new 35-40 day cycle ahead of us. And if I right about a final bubble phase this trade will turn into a huge winner over the next 2 months.

          • On April 10, 2014 at 7:20 am,
            eric says:

            I just wonder how you can make a decent profit when you bought half of your shares at the end of the trading session.

            Not very credible.

            I love your talk about the final bubble phase. Hang on to it. Don’t give up the hope.

      • On April 10, 2014 at 8:20 am,
        Birdman says:

        An imposter! Another Birdman has appeared. Good grief, thank God we don’t use real names because anybody could pretend to be us on this site and write things we would never say. Just to test the theory that this site has major identity and security holes I am going to send my next posts as Al Korelin and Cory Fleck.

    • On April 10, 2014 at 3:35 am,
      Birdman says:

      Gary has made some excellent commentary this year. His ideas are ahead of the herd. When not one person on this site was talking up commodities back in early January he caught the trend change and pointed it out before the sector really took off. Lets not nitpick daily trading too much. Anybody who catches a fundamental shift in market strategy is pretty good in my books.

      • On April 10, 2014 at 4:48 am,
        Eric says:

        Euphoria phase in stocks and capitulation phase in gold is really a fundamental shift. Let’s see how it plays out.

        • On April 10, 2014 at 5:34 am,
          Birdman says:

          Not sure what point you are making. Everyone is watching the same charts. All of us know stocks are overpriced and gold underpriced. What does that have to do with the short and medium term direction? Nothing. Not even you know the time and date of golds big move. The whole analyst community has not guessed it right yet. Most of the idiots out there insisted it should already be at 5000 or some other crazy prediction already and spent the past three years getting their asses kicked by Mr market. So yeah, we will see how it plays out. All of us get to see together since nobody could estimate it accurately yet including you.

  23. On April 10, 2014 at 3:00 am,
    William Phelps (Tokyo) says:

    Well, my 2 yen are, that Gary’s a perfect trader. He doesn’t predict the future. He looks at odds, is how I see it. So right now I think he’s said that the yearly and intermediate cycles indicate that gold will go down here. But if prices rise above 1350 he’d get back in. This sounds like a pure trader to me – it’s not being on both sides of the fence – rather, it’s looking at the fence, knowing that one doesn’t know the future, and then making a plan to do X if it goes left or Y if it goes right. Total flexibility, following the market, whichever direction it goes. At least that’s how I see it.

  24. On April 10, 2014 at 3:31 am,
    GoldScene says:

    A jive talker with no skin in the game.

    Gary’s website is called GoldScents yet he has no gold positions… unreal (not even at the most recent oversold, bearish levels! Even he’s bearish…HOW BULLISH IS THAT!

  25. On April 10, 2014 at 3:40 am,
    GoldScene says:

    Best change your website name to StockSense.

  26. On April 10, 2014 at 3:41 am,
    William Phelps (Tokyo) says:

    Uh, just to drill in a bit more about the comment above that Gary made a “prediction” of 1000 gold. What I actually think he said was, that the cycles (again, yearly and intermediate) indicate that near 1000 is the next move. But he’s left the option open of going long at 1350 if something else happens. So it’s not like he’s predicting 1000 and sticking to it no matter what. He’s laying out the odds, and then laying out a plan to either wait to go long at 1000 or so, or if it goes higher to get in at 1350.

    I mean, can any trader to any better than that?

    What could cause cycles to get trumped? To me, this could be the COMEX running out of gold, causing the physical market to set price, trumping the paper futures market. Or it could be the Ukraine/Russia thing escalating further, or something else. I mean, no one can predict the future. All’s one can do is review the facts one has, and use this to develop a thesis on what’s next, probability wise. And then set a plan of attack,

    It’s just like chess – offense and defense at the same time.

    I think every good trader does this.

    You know, Al and Cory put on this collaborative forum, whereby experts in several fields come and educate us, so that our knowledge grows, and that we become better informed and hopefully more profitable as a result. I mean, it’s really clear to me that Al is trying to do something quite different and good and positive here. So it’s important that we honor this higher level of integrity that Al and Cory set for us. In short, let’s learn and be nice. Ideas can and should be challenged, just not messengers. We are what we write.

  27. On April 10, 2014 at 6:19 am,
    eric says:

    I’m not the one selling newsletters. I don’t need to make predictions nor do I have to be right on predictions I didn’t make. 🙂

    I’m not sure what point you are making.

    • On April 10, 2014 at 8:04 am,
      gary says:

      Eric,
      I bought during the Tuesday morning and before the close Tuesday night. If you listen to the interview Tuesday I told Al and Cory that I thought stocks were putting in a bottom that day.

      If I get knocked out today it will be at break even for the QQQ shares and presumably a small profit on the SPY portion as they are showing some relative strength.

      • On April 10, 2014 at 9:40 am,
        eric says:

        As of now SPY down 2.2%, QQQQ down 1.2%. Aaaaand stopped out! Bye, bye!

  28. On April 10, 2014 at 7:57 am,
    Robert Burt says:

    To me all these remarks are like 12 blind men feeling an elephant; each one is right about something, but none of them knows what it is they are feeling. I don’t know either. All I know is that nobody is famous for consistently predicting what this market will do, and the nature of the world we live in has so many potential variables that no market is ever likely to do exactly what it has done previously. And yet most people think that when they see a shard, they know the shape of the whole vase. To me, this is one of those times when a person can easily imagine gold could go either way, and what I’ve seen suggests (but does not prove or even imply) that the future move is not yet decided. Right now there are questions and doubt. Once it’s decided, there will be neither.

  29. On April 10, 2014 at 9:51 am,
    ManAboutDallas says:

    This is exactly the sort of pull-out-all-the-stops, gloom-and-doom-and-Armageddon, abandon-hope-all-ye-who-enter-here stories one sees at EXACTLY THE POINT of “capitulation”. Mr. “Plunger” is an excellent and useful example of someone who has fallen for his own malarkey and, worse, actually BELIEVES IT, themselves.

  30. On April 10, 2014 at 12:45 pm,
    GoldScene says:

    Gary Gartman. The perfect contrarian indicator.