Gary Savage – Tue 15 Apr, 2014

Are we in a capitulation phase for the time being?

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Cory FleckGary SavageAl Korelin

  1. On April 15, 2014 at 9:22 am,
    bb says:

    I disagree Gary, Ive always been of the opinion the defence of price will be about $1000.
    My figuring is fundamental, the Chinese wont lose face to their people.

    I need more “capitulation” the shares I trade hardly budged.

    Thanks for your efforts. And patience Gary.

    • On April 15, 2014 at 9:29 am,
      Gary says:

      I also think the capitulation phase will bottom in the $950-$1050 zone.

      • On April 15, 2014 at 1:47 pm,
        Wayne says:

        I hope Gary is incorrect about his huge decline scenario, but I won”t be too disappointed if, as he said, we can expect a major bull market to commence in a few months–if we can just hold on. Well, I’ve been holding on for the past 3 years, so I think I can handle a few more months of waiting.

        • On April 15, 2014 at 2:39 pm,
          J........the Long.............ootb says:


      • On April 15, 2014 at 2:42 pm,
        Silverbug Dave says:

        Why would Rick Rule be looking for capitulation? The real capitulation would be if Rick Rule puked all his gold stocks!

  2. On April 15, 2014 at 9:25 am,
    tim says:

    Gary – I’m with ya, bro.

  3. On April 15, 2014 at 9:36 am,
    JC says:

    I am not sure if PM are going to grind down or drop down. But I have a target of 30.5 in the GDXJ. We are looking at a bearish pendant in GDXJ that signals further declines. This should be the final drop into what could very well be a historic buying opportunity.
    – Lots of opinions on this site (which is why I like it) only time will tell what is really going to happen.

    • On April 15, 2014 at 11:01 am,
      Big Al says:

      I do agree with the latter part of your comment.

      I also agree with you prior comment about the historic buying opportunity. The question in my mind is, “are we there now”?

  4. On April 15, 2014 at 9:36 am,
    FIH says:

    “Stink Bombs” are “Stink Bombs”. Dumps @ illiquid times of the market can only be “Gaming the Market”. Who honestly believes these strategies are “Providing Liquidity”; “Providing Transparency so that free markets, which are (were) the Trademark of the “Greatest Financial System” thrives, is the case”. Thanx for pointing out the possibilities that are “out there” Gary which allows investors like me to listen to all the good advice this forum provides but suggests that we be aware of “stink bombs” that won’t find us out of position when their stench ruminates through the Halls of Free Markets everywhere!

  5. On April 15, 2014 at 9:39 am,
    David says:

    Answer to the million $ question – Watch out below, hope will make your trading account much smaller! If you are long bullion (as I am) perhaps putting on some shorts will mitigate the pain!

    Al – Did I answer the question correctly? Did I win? Let me know, and I will send you my account number and swift code!

    • On April 15, 2014 at 1:11 pm,
      Big Al says:

      i too am long some gold, but with my philosophy who really cares. Certainly not I.

      Best to you David

    • On April 15, 2014 at 1:11 pm,
      Big Al says:

      P.S. We are unfortunately not licensed as a Game Show!

  6. On April 15, 2014 at 9:43 am,
    goldhi says:

    I find the interview on March 14th just merely one month ago when gold was trading at 1380.
    Gary’s thoughts and forecasts were remarkably fascinating then as compared to today. Here it is.

    • On April 15, 2014 at 10:37 am,
      57vette says:

      Listen to his Mar. 17 report and you’ll see why he changed his mind. He got out at the very top. Pretty darn good in my book

    • On April 15, 2014 at 1:16 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Thanks Goldhi,

      It ain’t over until it is over!

    • On April 15, 2014 at 1:39 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Thanks Goldhi

  7. On April 15, 2014 at 9:45 am,
    BK says:

    Where are all the gary hates today???? Credit where credit is due – nice work Gary always interested in what you have to say.

    • On April 15, 2014 at 1:41 pm,
      Big Al says:

      There appeared to be one person and, after asking for politeness a number of times, we are now blocking that person.

      • On April 15, 2014 at 2:04 pm,
        GH says:

        Thanks! Trolls, quite possibly paid, are there to damage your site and the efforts of honest people trying to navigate these treacherous waters.

        And thanks for all the great interview you guys put out, Al.

  8. On April 15, 2014 at 9:46 am,
    original jj says:

    Lets remember all that the previous gold bull of the 70’s had a 50% correction before taking off to $800+++…..50% off $1923 = sub $1000…$960ish…will history repeat yet again?

  9. On April 15, 2014 at 9:51 am,
    Iiam says:

    Does anybody see GDX dropping below $20 by the end of May ?

    • On April 15, 2014 at 9:58 am,
      original jj says:

      A very key level on the GDX chart is coming into play as the highs across Jan/2014 and the lows of late Feb create a support zone @ $23.50 if we get a close this week below that line imo it suggests a close below $20.00 is very possible or atleast a test of Dec lows $20.00++

      • On April 15, 2014 at 4:36 pm,
        Birdman says:

        Wow! Have not looked at that chart in awhile. Twenty bucks is projection?

  10. On April 15, 2014 at 9:58 am,
    David says:

    Al / Cory – Please announce when you guys liquidate your PM positions. That will likely signal the bottom.

    • On April 15, 2014 at 12:14 pm,
      Bob says:

      I want to know that too!

      • On April 15, 2014 at 1:42 pm,
        Big Al says:

        See my response to David. Our kids will inherit our pm’s.

    • On April 15, 2014 at 1:42 pm,
      Big Al says:

      In my case David, I guarantee you that will never happen.

  11. On April 15, 2014 at 10:01 am,
    james (the lesserrr) says:

    if the gold bugs havent capitulaed by now i dont think they ever will

    do you really think another $200 drop is going to shake them out of their principles?

    Doubt it

    today was just another hatchet job on gold
    yesterdays rabbot out of the hat was just another example of rigged stocks

    when the system starts to break down, which it is, chaos ensues.

    those who are holding gold for insurance ought to have a word with their insurance saleman.

    nevertheless i bleieve we have just witnessed the bottom in gold

    • On April 15, 2014 at 10:32 am,
      bb says:

      james, I for one am keeping my gold…as insurance. lol
      Also, there is a possibility that not too many people need to sell for gold to drop.
      Im only concerned with share prices, mine are coming down.
      Another 100-200 drop and I will get them cheap.

    • On April 15, 2014 at 10:35 am,
      original jj says:

      That’s interesting james, you obviously know how to read people at the race track and horses so to think goldbugs wouldn’t puke further when the recent last two lows around $1180 don’t hold (if that is the case) that’s well, interesting.

      Just as real tops are formed when the average sheeple climb over bids to pay silly offers a sub $1180 where ALL the so called gurus have proclaimed THE lows falling will create real blood in the street as the religion of gold will be tramped on….just at the exact time it should be bought, it always unfolds this way, real estate, dotcoms Japan’s Nikkei etc.

      As I mention the past two years especially 2013 when ALL the gurus suggested $1525 would hold as a great buying opp this week again around Easter sends gold back off regaining $1350

      Good luck james

    • On April 15, 2014 at 1:43 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Any comments, The Greater, on the second Editorial we did with Gary?

    • On April 15, 2014 at 4:42 pm,
      Birdman says:

      James, it is not the 200 dollar drop that will create the capitulation. It will be the sense that the broad market and public have turned against gold to the extent that long time holders believe no upside opportunity exists anymore. That really speaks more to feelings of lost confidence than lost dollars. A few more drops like this and hope will pretty much just die. I mean, do you know anybody personally (who is not already a devoted goldbug) that is talking up purchasing precious metals? I sure don’t. Joe public is simply not buying and until he does there is no force that can propel gold further than it has already gone. If the hedge funds abandon gold now it is pretty much lights out for a long time and the media will pronounce the last rites for metals on live TV.

  12. On April 15, 2014 at 10:06 am,
    JerryC says:

    I don’t know where gold will go short term. But what I am the opinion of is most of the hits on the gold market in recent months have been the invisible hand. After the hit there would be “accumulation” by stronger hands, like today.

    Gary’s guessing, like the rest of us, given, some guesses are a little more informed than others, we just have to wait and see. ALL traders are wrong regularly, unless you have the gift of making 1300 trades in a row with no bad trades (JPM).

    If one is smart he will accumulate. Not wait for a nuclear fire sale. And I hope Gary would agree with that, to be responsible.

  13. On April 15, 2014 at 10:11 am,
    ManAboutDallas says:

    Unlike one year ago, “somebody” is now back-stopping these “smash jobs” and has been doing so ever since the $1180 retest on 12-31-13. These “smash jobs” are having less and less effect and I believe we’re just one or two away now from a “smash job” that is going to fail, and fail miserably, and that’s going to be the “defining moment” when everyone is going to realize the “game” is over, and up…up….up…up…. the PMs will go. Cogent analysis, Gary, but I continue to believe you’re suffering from bad, bad, bad case of “recency bias”, aka “bunker mentality”.

    • On April 15, 2014 at 10:22 am,
      ManAboutDallas says:

      For an example of what is likely to happen, go back and take a look at gold on September 17th and 18th, 2008. When the “smash job failure” occurs – and it WILL – there’s going to be a move EXACTLY like those two days produced.

  14. On April 15, 2014 at 10:13 am,
    goldhi says:

    I’m confused I need some clarification. Didn’t Gary forecast just 4 weeks ago when gold was trading at 1380 that it was going to 1430 and that the end of this year I believe he said gold will go to 2000? Now I can wrong but that’s what I understood.

    • On April 15, 2014 at 12:04 pm,
      Marc Andral says:

      Depends on the time frame. Gary keeps both sides of the fences so he can never be wrong in his predictions. So he says weekly cycle going down, monthly cycle going up, etc.

      Don’t use Gary Savage’s aka Toby Connor’s comments on the markets as trading advice. It’s just entertainment.

      • On April 15, 2014 at 2:08 pm,
        GH says:

        Wrong. Gary, like any trader who hasn’t lost everything, realizes he can’t know the future with certainty. He anticipates possible scenarios and plans on what to do in case of each possibility.

  15. On April 15, 2014 at 10:35 am,
    bb says:

    Goldhi, Gary gives you “if this,if that” he talks possibilities.
    No offence, but listen carefully.

    • On April 15, 2014 at 10:57 am,
      Gary says:

      Goldhi, Hal, Seb, Eric, JJ, Kong etc. etc. It’s all the same guy posting out of same IP address out of Germany. He has no interest in actually listening to what I say. He has his own agenda and if the facts don’t support it he’ll manufacture his own imaginary facts.

      Best to just ignore him and let him talk to himself. I’m pretty sure that’s the only person listening to his nonsense.

      • On April 15, 2014 at 12:07 pm,
        Marc Andral says:

        I understand. Are you still angry he cornered you last week and you looked like a complete moron with your “decent profit” of 0.01% ??? 🙂

        • On April 15, 2014 at 1:23 pm,
          Gary says:

          And now he has another name :).

          See my response. I said I had strong hand status and could move my stop up to break even. Nice try though.

      • On April 15, 2014 at 1:33 pm,
        Marc Andral says:

        You call me a liar? Really? LOL. 🙂

        A liar calling other people liars. Funny! 🙂

      • On April 15, 2014 at 1:36 pm,
        Marc Andral says:

        So you are saying “Goldhi, Hal, Seb, Eric, JJ, Kong etc.” are posting from the same IP address? Either you don’t know or you are a liar. Actually, I think you can’t distinguish any more between the two after becoming a complete fake, Mr. Toby Connor.

      • On April 15, 2014 at 1:39 pm,
        Marc Andral says:

        Obviously you didn’t only block me but all the others who have no chance to defend themselves against such frigging behaviour and lies.

        You can block the others for good but not me and I will keep on telling the truth, Mr. Toby Connor or whatever your name is.

        • On April 15, 2014 at 1:49 pm,
          Big Al says:


          We are only blocking people who seem to have an agenda. As long as you keep your comments civil you are fine.

          • On April 15, 2014 at 2:12 pm,
            GH says:

            I’d say he’s already crossed the line. Malicious comments there to sow negativity and spread confusion, not light.

    • On April 15, 2014 at 1:46 pm,
      Big Al says:

      I do agree with you bb

  16. On April 15, 2014 at 10:38 am,
    JC says:

    Wow….why all the Gary hate? at least he has the cahones to take a stand and voice an opinion. Until the rest of you weak sisters are willing to offer your opinion on where the markets are going you need to close your traps and stop taking the intellectually lazy path of critique…….anybody can critique someone else, it takes brains to come up with a prediction based on market action and courage to voice it in a cat-fight forum like this!!!

    • On April 15, 2014 at 3:51 pm,
      J........the Long.............ootb says:

      most see past the bs……if you stay here long enough , you will see , who knows what and who is a waste of time………………..

      • On April 15, 2014 at 10:45 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Very true Jerry!

    • On April 15, 2014 at 4:19 pm,
      Birdman says:

      Indeed JC. I agree. The problem with the hard-core gold bugs on this site is that they are incredibly jealous of anybody who can make a better trade than them. And they are mostly so full of their own prideful theories that never pan out that they don’t even know they are wrong until the portfolio statements roll in at months end. Basically none of them are capable of learning.

  17. On April 15, 2014 at 10:53 am,
    Lawrence says:

    If hardline goldbugs give up, who will hold the positions. Someone have to buy in order for goldbugs to sell, right? I still don’t understand why it is neccessary to squeeze out the last one since at that time gold is 0 by definition since nobody hold any. You have to see gold dumped in the landfills since it costs money to store it.

    I have raised my bid this morning to capture the drop but I did not get any. I hope the price comes down more so I can get some.

    • On April 15, 2014 at 4:16 pm,
      Birdman says:

      Don’t worry Lawrence. All of it will eventually be held by the Central Banks and we won’t have anything to discuss here anymore except the paper markets period.

      • On April 15, 2014 at 10:52 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Don’t think that will ever be the case , Bird

        • On April 16, 2014 at 5:24 am,
          J........the Long.............ootb says:


  18. On April 15, 2014 at 11:02 am,
    Lawrence says:

    Can someone tell me if 20 years’ bear market cannot make all gold bugs give up, how can a couple of years’ correction do it? If we need another 30 years’ bear market, how can Gary claim that the gold will fly high late this year. It simply not understandable for me. Am I missing anything?

    • On April 15, 2014 at 11:09 am,
      original jj says:

      Your not missing anything Lawrence otherthan what moves markets, your position, HH position, no! its the hedge fund and if the support zones continue to give way in gold than down it will go its really that simple, no opinion, just support where buyers need to over take the selling, if not, down it goes More Sellers than Buyers forget opinions! its all about the areas that must show support and on the upside resistance levels that the buyers must over come…$1330+ held then back just as $1280 is holding the sellers back

    • On April 15, 2014 at 1:50 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Hi Lawrence,

      Listen to our second interview with Gary today.

  19. On April 15, 2014 at 11:31 am,
    Aida says:

    You mention that Rick Rule concurs with you. He has stated many times in the last week that he feels the bottom is already in for gold, and the recovery will be saucer shaped instead of v-shaped because there was no capitulation. His interviews can be seen on the Sprott site. Where are you getting you different views from.

    • On April 15, 2014 at 1:51 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Good point Aida

    • On April 15, 2014 at 2:17 pm,
      GH says:

      It’s true. For a long time Rick was calling for capitulation, but lately he is talking ‘saucer bottom’.

  20. On April 15, 2014 at 11:46 am,
    Marc Andral says:

    Good interview! Thanks for sharing.

  21. On April 15, 2014 at 11:53 am,
    Marc Andral says:

    Gold goes down hardly 2% and the gold bugs are running around like headless chickens and Gary Savaga aka Toby Connor sees himself vindicated. Entertaining to watch!!

    • On April 15, 2014 at 2:18 pm,
      GH says:

      On thing you’ve said that I agree with is that the whole Gary Savage / Toby Connor thing is a negative. In the gold space trust is scarce. I can’t understand why Gary does this. But I find his commentary to be very good even so.

  22. On April 15, 2014 at 12:45 pm,
    ManAboutDallas says:

    15 minutes to the equities close in N. America and just about every PM stock has clawed its way back from this morning’s sympathy-with-gold selloff to “even” or “up slightly”. I’ll say it again : “somebody” is now back-stopping these smash jobs and not only in the PMs themselves, but the PM equities, as well.

  23. On April 15, 2014 at 12:48 pm,
    TenYear says:

    Who is Toby Conner?

  24. On April 15, 2014 at 12:58 pm,
    Steven says:

    Really there has not been a true bull market in gold and silver. Instead there has been a rise in prices with in a larger bear market that started in 1980. The bear just took a nap between meals that’s all. It is also possible that the same thing happened between 1971 and 1980. No real bull market just a pause or slow down in the bear attacks.

    • On April 15, 2014 at 1:23 pm,
      ManAboutDallas says:

      Well, then, Mr. PermaBear…. how ’bout you tell us what YOU would call a “… true bull market in gold and silver”, eh ? Don’t be shy now, tell us how you REALLY feel.

  25. On April 15, 2014 at 1:30 pm,
    Randy Goodnight says:

    Gary – If you are so confident gold is going down to the $1,000 range why don’t you short it? Please don’t say gold is in a bull market and surprises will come to the up side.
    Also, I find it interesting that you write a newsletter primarily on gold but you don’t buy physical. You’re just “playing” investor in the paper markets. You write with such conviction but you kind of act scared. As you’ve suggested to others, why don’t you just “play” the S&P? For the record, I don’t think gold gets anywhere near your 950 – 1,050

  26. On April 15, 2014 at 1:42 pm,
    Marc Andral says:

    Different names, different pictures. Gary Savage aka Toby Connor is a complete fraud. Please, check for yourself!

    Go to:
    Go to:

    Who the fakk is who?

    • On April 15, 2014 at 4:18 pm,
      Randy Goodnight says:

      @Marc A. – So true. Why does Gary Toby use two different names? Two different websites, doesn’t actually invest in the things he writes about? I’m amazed that people pay for these services. He runs websites, a news letter, writes articles and gets people to interview him like he’s an expert. In my field, you’re not an expert until you have 10,000 hours, experience, etc.

      • On April 15, 2014 at 10:54 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Randy, I would guess that he does!

  27. On April 15, 2014 at 1:59 pm,
    Lawrence says:

    I am not a gold bug but I am betting on that printing money will cause inflation. There is no free lunch. I will give up only there is proof that god has changed the natural law.

    • On April 15, 2014 at 2:46 pm,
      J........the Long.............ootb says:

      GREAT ONE……..Lawrence………

  28. On April 15, 2014 at 5:46 pm,
    Mike R says:

    Ive been following gold since my first coin purchases in ’99. I also got out of all equities in 2000. Occasionally only taking on positions along the way in gold stocks, and selling after I reached certain gains. I have physical metals now in my own possession , both gold and silver. My slightly nuanced take on all of the action since the top around $1900 in gold, is that quite simply a whole contingent of various interested stakeholders, very much want gold to fall to $1000 or below. I’m a very simple person, and not always right, but with so many people out there wanting it to happen, whether it’s folks who’d love that buying opportunity or at the other extreme, the PTB or whatever you want to call that stakeholder group, wants gold suppressed, I remain highly doubtful it will ever get down to that level. For me personally, it would be a ‘gift’. Similar to the gift I took advantage of in 2008, when I purchased a considerable amount (for me anyway) of gold bullion around $800 an ounce. Those types of ‘gifts’ simply don’t present themselves very often. Otherwise, it’s rare that obsess over any price movement like what has been occurring on various occasions, including recently. I only occasionally come here to see what folks might be saying. When you stay away from these types of conversations, what one often finds it may be a different date, but often the fairly same ‘tune.’ good luck to everyone here.