Gary Savage – Tue 15 Apr, 2014

After Market Discussion with Gary

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Featuring:
Al KorelinCory FleckGary Savage

Comments:
  1. On April 15, 2014 at 1:59 pm,
    franky says:
  2. On April 15, 2014 at 2:00 pm,
    james (the lesserrr) says:

    Hear me now…

    When we broke the triple bottom at $1525 and gold went down a few hundred bucks, a year ago this week, we entered a new lower range. There was capitulation.

    if we now break the $1180 triple bottom then there will be more capitulation and we could then be in a new lower range.

    in other words there is no bottom.

    you are expecting a bounce off of a so called final bottom.

    there might not be a final bottom

    • On April 15, 2014 at 2:27 pm,
      Silverbug Dave says:

      I was looking at a crude form of Action Reaction AR line analysis on the gold action for the last 3 years. Quite often there is a large gap across a key line. Maybe that line was at about $1470-1480. Gold went from holding lows of $1520 to failing to get past highs at $1430. Midpoint of those is about $1475. ($1475 is also close to the middle of the plunge on those 2 days from $1590/1600 to $1321 intraday low).

      OK, the top was at $1920 at the turn into September 2011. The midpoint was crossed rapidly at $1475 on 12-15th of April 2013. The time interval was 19.5 months. With symmtry of action and reaction, the bottom would be at the end of December 2014, 19.5 months after the April 2013 plunge to a price target of around $1030!
      Whether that is a method for Goldman’s analysis or not, I have no idea but it fits in both price and time.

    • On April 15, 2014 at 2:47 pm,
      Big Al says:

      I have to agree with you, James

  3. On April 15, 2014 at 2:11 pm,
    Robert says:

    it’s funny…all this talk about capitulation….meanwhile we’re still above $1300!!

    • On April 15, 2014 at 2:43 pm,
      Birdman says:

      We are not above 1900 though!

    • On April 15, 2014 at 8:56 pm,
      har says:

      Oppsy. $1297.

  4. On April 15, 2014 at 2:12 pm,
    james (the lesserrr) says:

    Exactly Robert!!!

  5. On April 15, 2014 at 2:13 pm,
    james (the lesserrr) says:

    A civil war in Ukraine is about to break out and stocks go on there merry way while CNN is still trying to get more juice out of flight 370.

    Tell me they dont have an agenda to push!

    • On April 15, 2014 at 2:20 pm,
      Birdman says:

      Good call Gary. The only part I would disagree with is that I don’t see a fast recovery off the bottom. What is happening now is absolutely killing any enthusiasm that had been building for gold and a lot of people will not be willing to risk it again. Several false breakouts have really hurt sentiments. There needs to be some healing here first. Lets not be surprised that gold loses all its year to date gains over the next two months. That will be a major setback and just a reason for recent buyers to quickly lock in gains. I think selling will accelerate through the end of this week and put a knife in the heart of gold for quite some time.

      • On April 15, 2014 at 3:05 pm,
        bb says:

        I hope so Bird, Im thinkin fundimentals might become more prominent after this “crushing”
        The time is going to come the gold is no longer available in suficiant quantity to kep controlled.

        • On April 15, 2014 at 3:08 pm,
          bb says:

          (oops didn’t intend to post just then)Controlled so much down, gotta remember the objective is not to keep it down but to allow it to rise, but not in a chaotic manner.
          Goldman sachs could even be right, 1050 by year end, but there are too many people buying physical to keep it down forever.

          Putting on my tinfoil hat, unless that 170,000 tons exists.

          • On April 15, 2014 at 3:14 pm,
            J........the Long.............ootb says:

            By year end . GS…hopes they can buy it for 1050, by talking everyone out of theirs.

          • On April 15, 2014 at 10:25 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Not going to be able to buy it for $1050

          • On April 15, 2014 at 3:16 pm,
            J........the Long.............ootb says:

            I am going one step further………KAREN…said the 170,000 tons…, one time, and then said some of the treasure covered other things….art, paper, etc. that was stolen from the people…………..I doubt there is 170,000 tons……

          • On April 15, 2014 at 10:27 pm,
            Big Al says:

            I doubt it too Jerry

          • On April 15, 2014 at 3:27 pm,
            bb says:

            Every body doubts the 170, that’s why no investigation. Especially for those whose livlyhoods are gold. If news got out about it our gold would be 250, and wouldnt the chinese be happy.

            I have no idea if it does, but it wouldn’t be the first time in my life I have seen something I knew nothing about was true.

          • On April 15, 2014 at 3:30 pm,
            bb says:

            And geez ootb, are the western banks and governments really so stupid as to give all their gold away? Just doesn’t make sense.

          • On April 15, 2014 at 10:41 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Not a whole lot of sense!

          • On April 15, 2014 at 3:41 pm,
            J........the Long.............ootb says:

            I with you on,,,it does not make sense…………., except, we know they are greedy little people, and desire control………..

          • On April 15, 2014 at 3:42 pm,
            J........the Long.............ootb says:

            I am starting to sound like franky ……on the grammer………

          • On April 15, 2014 at 10:44 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Not really!

          • On April 15, 2014 at 3:44 pm,
            J........the Long.............ootb says:

            there is one thing for sure……I am staying pat…on the gold…………long term it is going higher..

          • On April 15, 2014 at 4:00 pm,
            bb says:

            I believe it is too. 170 or no.

    • On April 15, 2014 at 2:49 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Of course and their agenda is called selling advertising!

  6. On April 15, 2014 at 2:15 pm,
    james (the lesserrr) says:

    Things are getting wicked and spititual.

    Remember Satan hates gold, it is honest money.

    The banksters, central planners, media, stock boys, fed are merley pawns in this spiritual battle

    • On April 15, 2014 at 2:21 pm,
      Birdman says:

      Well James, we all know that gold is the enemy. We should not be surprised by this turn of events.

    • On April 15, 2014 at 3:17 pm,
      J........the Long.............ootb says:

      good point James.

  7. On April 15, 2014 at 2:16 pm,
    Bill says:

    FYI – the timing of what Gary is saying matches 2 other non-correlated things: a) Goldman Sach’s call for 1050 gold (see Mineweb.com), and b) seasonality whereby gold bottoms in June/July and then rises).

  8. On April 15, 2014 at 2:20 pm,
    james (the lesserrr) says:

    what are the chances that gold gets drubbed on the exact same day a year later?

    goldman is calling for 1000 gold – they will make it happen

    • On April 15, 2014 at 2:27 pm,
      Birdman says:

      Markets are highly superstitious James. It is why EVERYONE starts to feel anxious as October rolls around. It is why they sell in May and go away. It is why there is a PDAC curse……you get the point. The 18 year old math whizzes who program the algos don’t know this stuff but the veteran traders in charge do…..and so they get that non-math stuff added even if the kids wince when they first hear it.

  9. On April 15, 2014 at 2:23 pm,
    tim says:

    “a) Goldman Sach’s call for 1050 gold (see Mineweb.com)”

    IIRC 2 different GS peeps made this call… it would be wise to consider this in your evaluations people. 🙂

    • On April 15, 2014 at 3:18 pm,
      J........the Long.............ootb says:

      NEVER believe GS…………

      • On April 15, 2014 at 10:30 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Okay,why not at least a consideration?

  10. On April 15, 2014 at 2:27 pm,
    Bill says:

    The only worry I have is if the west runs out of physical gold, and the paper gold price setting mechanism fails. We could wake up and see prices $100 or more higher. If Gary’s cycle studies are correct, I’m thinking about accumulating now, and cost averaging down. $1300, then $1200, then $1100, then $1000, average out to $1150 gold. Not bad me thinks, as a long term investment strategy. I got this idea of cost averaging from James Turk a few yrs ago.

    • On April 15, 2014 at 2:53 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Exactly what he advocates. (James that is)

  11. On April 15, 2014 at 2:27 pm,
    Chris says:

    The gold Chart is a mess! We are in a broad trading range from 1330 down to 1280. Until we get a “close” above or below this range, There is really nothing to do unless you are a day trader. I do agree that as of today the break does not look like it will be up. TWT……….

  12. On April 15, 2014 at 2:30 pm,
    Robert says:

    each passing day is more convincing that gold is the only logical place to be. As Dr. Paul Craig Roberts puts it…gold is in a fight to the death against the dollar….today’s action was so manipulative and obvious even to an amateur like me

  13. On April 15, 2014 at 2:30 pm,
    Bill says:

    But honestly the greed part of me wants to buy all gold at 1000, plus I don’t think I could stand the pain of seeing the 1st few bars loose value. Plus who knows if 1000 is the bottom as James says. Could be 700, or 250. No one knows the future.

    • On April 15, 2014 at 2:45 pm,
      Birdman says:

      Don’t give me ideas Bill!

      • On April 15, 2014 at 3:15 pm,
        bb says:

        The only way I can see gold going much below 1000 is if the 170,000 exists.
        China is already buying more than the earth produces, then there is an Indian government change coming. Not to mention a lot of other countries.

        Even then it doesn’t make sense, a higher gold price could be the americans way out of debt. Obviously they have other options but it must at least be a consideration.

        • On April 15, 2014 at 3:21 pm,
          bb says:

          I know nobody likes to talk about the 170 tons, but nobody invstigates it either.
          Except Karen Hudas and she says it does.
          I doubt the americans really want to tick off the Chinese, if they are not moving fleets to the Philipenes to defend from the Chinese, what are they doing ther?
          Is 170.000 tons of gold worth moving fleets for.?

          I know, tinfoil hat. But nobody has provided a rebutle to Ms Hudas, how come?

          • On April 15, 2014 at 3:27 pm,
            J........the Long.............ootb says:

            I think most , think she is crazy………

        • On April 15, 2014 at 3:30 pm,
          J........the Long.............ootb says:

          IF, AND I do not expect,,,gold at $1000,,,, beside, what is the mining cost? I have heard $1200.

  14. On April 15, 2014 at 2:56 pm,
    original jj says:

    There is no doubt Gold is a religion….it must be the only investment that continues (these past few years) to fall short of key levels of which it most close above on the daily charts, weekly and most important the monthly charts, it falls flat on its face. Yet all the gold gurus who called the run from $400 to $1900 correctly just keep pumping Buy, Buy, Buy….until gold proves itself by closing above $1425 on a weekly chart and really proving its worth by closing above the $1525 level then gold is traded like anything else….funny those of us who have made money or atleast protected our purchasing power by acknowledging a major breakdown this time last year losing $1525 on the chart shorting gold and the miners has been the trade, bar none!

    The HUI was 350 when golds floor opened up last April and its been trading in between 290-188 ever since.

    Capitulation, hmm I wonder when all these so called gold to da moon experts and economic collapse calls and hyperinflation calls will finally be viewed as they should utter nonsense! US$ to zero…..good grief…pass the Koolaid kids

    I think james the lesser is onto something, where is the next level gold trades at for the next year, between $1000 and $1280…..the last few years certainly suggest a better chance of that than $1500-$1800

    • On April 15, 2014 at 3:17 pm,
      GH says:

      You certainly might be right. But projecting the recent past into the future is always wrong at the change of a cyclical move, and there’s a fair to good chance we’re near one.

      As for gold being a religion, sure, for some. But there is also logic that argues for a higher price. E.g. QE around the world. The dollar religion is much more widespread and much less rational.

      • On April 15, 2014 at 3:25 pm,
        original jj says:

        Well GH I’m a trader, I can’t afford to trade based on fundamentals, logic or hope!!…its all about Price…..opinions we all have um like Aholes….Price is all that matters because that’s what the MARKET determines its value, not opinion, hype and hope.

        • On April 15, 2014 at 4:00 pm,
          GH says:

          True.

      • On April 15, 2014 at 10:28 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Yep GH that logic is definitely there!

    • On April 15, 2014 at 10:19 pm,
      Big Al says:

      I personally suggest not going crazy on this issue.

    • On April 16, 2014 at 4:35 pm,
      Goushi says:

      USD to 0…Kool aide? Since the Fed was given the corner on the Dollar market a century ago, they’ve already diluted it 98%…What 2 cents bought in 1913 costs $1.00 today. What makes you think they aren’t already gutting and looting the last of it purchasing power now. Bought groceries lately?

  15. On April 15, 2014 at 3:24 pm,
    Robert says:

    Good call a few weeks ago Gary!

  16. On April 15, 2014 at 3:25 pm,
    Lawrence says:

    All currencies have gone to their intrinsic value with no exception. I don’t think the currencies around now will last forever either. The printing press has been non-stopping since 2008 and the amount of various currencies have quintupled or more. If printing money does not lead to inflation, then we can print our way to prosperity. Any illogical things will only last a short while. Gold/Silver has to go higher since people can buy more of it with 5 times more money and more is coming. You can create additional paper gold to dilute the pool but not everyone wants paper, at least not people in the east. We have to reach a point where there is no physical gold left in COMEX and then what can they do? Imaging if people buy several times of physical gold, where can they source the physicals?

    By the way, I am not gold bug. If world governments shrink the money supply to 2008 level, I will sell all my gold.

  17. On April 15, 2014 at 4:02 pm,
    bb says:

    Yrag, are you on this planet?

  18. On April 15, 2014 at 5:09 pm,
    Eric says:

    I guess I am a ‘glass half full’ guy, when it comes to precious metals. I look at the perfect storm they tried to create with the news items and the reiteration of Goldman’s bearish call and where did it get them? Gold finished well off its low and above 1300.

    When it comes to China — I have mentioned this in the past, but worth repeating — they have become the world’s largest domestic miner of gold. Every ounce of it is deposited into their reserves.

    But here is the important part… a number of observers suggest that the Chinese cost of production is above $2000 per ounce and may be north of $2500 per ounce. This SINGLE data point is the best possible evidence you can have regarding the Chinese appetite for gold, as well as, their URGENCY.

    I am willing to bet with the Chinese.

    So, as for me…
    I am getting ready to add to physical silver and would add to physical gold holdings if we get the washout that some are predicting, south of $1200.

    Happily holding a diversified group of mining stocks (approximately 90% long right now in the trading account, with 10% cash). As I look through the charts, there are some that have had significant retracements of this year’s gains, such as Allied Nevada and Kinross.

    But by and large, most are still holding on to the bulk of their gains. As a little experiment, I went through a lot of the individual stock charts this afternoon and tried looking at them from the perspective of stock ‘xyz’ rather than as a holding within the mining sector.

    In each case, I asked myself, if someone presented this chart to me without the name of the stock, how would I characterize the current price action. In most cases, not only are they failing to point to impending implosions or capitulations, but most of them still appear to be in intermediate uptrends.

    Still don’t see much to worry about here. They are trying to do their best to shake the tree, but with more limited results than advertised.

    Have a good night!

    • On April 16, 2014 at 5:10 am,
      ManAboutDallas says:

      It’s highly unlikely the Chinese cost of production is $2000 or whatever other risable large number someone wants to spout in an attempt at “shock value”. Why ? The Chinese have the dubious luxury of unlimited amounts of essentially slave labour.

      • On April 16, 2014 at 7:41 am,
        Big Al says:

        Unfortunately, Man About, that is very probably true.

  19. On April 16, 2014 at 9:16 am,
    Duke says:

    Gary (or anyone),
    Gary said that Rick Rule is now calling for a capitulation in precious metals and then a V recovery?? I listen and read pretty much everything he puts out and have not heard that. In the last 2 months he has repeatedly said he thinks the bottom is in and that this is a saucer shaped recovery with higher highs and higher lows with a real bull market coming in 12-18 months. Can you please show me a link showing otherwise?

    • On April 16, 2014 at 9:42 am,
      Big Al says:

      I will ask him about that this afternoon.

      Thanks