Doc continues to think mid to late may will be a great time to buy precious metals
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Theres an old saying – bull markets take the stairs up and the elevator down.
Likewise bear markets grind lower and lower, always giving out hope with bounces, only to take it away with more grinding lower and lower, ever grinding, ever lower.
So personally I don’t see how a grinding down market is ia good thing.
To me it’s just a bear market.
At least a quick big deep fall will knock out the remaining weak hands and overshoot to the downside. Then a new bull market can begin.
So again, if you ask me, I would rather have a big fast fall (capitulation) then simply grinding lower.
Bear markets don’t end with grinds, they end with crashes!
No doubt we are in some type of bear market in gold and have been since $1900.
But then again, The Greater, what do I care!
I have to laugh because everytime you claim to be positive it seems more and more negative.
Look at all the bubbles in history. They crashed, they didn’t grind.
Grinding just means the bear market continues.
We need fear, real true fear, before this bear market is over.
NEVER FEAR EVIL MONEY NEVER BY STRONG ! JESUS AND GOD WHIT YOU BY STRONG AND COOL COOL IS THE WAY !
There was plenty of “real true” fear last year. The majority of investors never trust a top or a bottom. This time is not different. What has been will be again (and again).
Spend a minute or two right here:
Great to hear from you Matthew!
So you do agree with Gary?
cory ALWAYS agrees agrees and agrees with whatever , whoever…
How is my favorite Liberal. (And, believe me, I am not being derogatory.)
Cory agrees with much of what our guests say, because he really does believe it. Trust me, he is a CA and he is very black and white. No bs in what he says.
matthew – please translate. i am not sure i am following.
i disagree regarding real true fear last year. it was fear, it was surprise, but it wasnt real true fear. else why did people come rushing rightback in with all the pent up demand? if it was real true fear everyone would have been spooked out, and stayed out, and instead of the big v shaped bounce we got we would have gone down even more. it wasnt fear. it was disbelief. I myself bought after last years april crash. I had no fear. maybe i should have.
This time is not different. This is true.
But what is your context?
What is not diferent?
This time is not different. A bubble cannot be reinflated..
and bear markets dont end in grinds
what has been will be again. This is true too
but again what is your context?
what has been?
what will be again?
silver was once $4, that can be again
4 $ SILVER WHIT HOUS PRICE STELL SOO HIGH ????????? I HOPE SOO ! WE WILL SEE !
James–The presence of fear, no matter how extreme, does not dictate that people must come rushing back in to form a V bottom. Even a lot of previously strong hands were shell-shocked and threw in the towel. Peak to trough, silver fell more than it did in the collapse of 2008. GLDX plunged from $75 to $10. GDXJ fell from $155 to $28. Even Jim Sinclair reported that some previously very strong hands gave up. You have exhibited quite a lot of despair yourself, if my perception is accurate. Nevertheless, something tells me that you have little exposure to the miners. The destruction of the last 2.5 years has been massive for most in this sector.
Btw, looking at the massive volume in GDXJ in Q1 of this year, I’d say that people DID come rushing right back –and too many used that rush to get out! Big mistake.
As for this bubble talk, I say “what bubble?”
Silver got extremely overbought and did get ahead of itself, but there was no bubble. It doubled even priced in gold in just eight months –who wouldn’t be a seller? But it took silver eight years to go up 1000%. In 1979/80, it took just one year to do the same. THAT was a bubble. At its 2011 high, silver traded at .038 times the S&P 500 –less than one-tenth its 1980 valuation(!). For most of the last century, silver traded much closer to the price of oil and briefly exceeded it in 1980. It remains the only major commodity that still trades at just 40% of its 1980 high.
Matthew, some INCREDIBLE stuff….unbelievable! Just GREAT!
Thanks Marc; check this out:
http://www.chartsrus.com/charts.php?image=http://www.sharelynx.com/chartsfixed/SI1980.gif
The last 5-fold advance to the 1980 blow-off top happened in just 5 months. (Note that the linked chart does not show the intraday spike to nearly $50.)
Matthew…….Thanks for the chart…………..
Another great chart………..is the 650 YEAR SILVER CHART……..,
IRISH, might like to look at this chart and see that in 1344…silver at today’s value is approx. $400 per oz. ………I think SILVER IS WAY UNDERVALUED.
Maybe, that is why JPM IS HOLDING 6000 TONS……
Even better is the ALL TIME HIGH….1477 ….at $806 per oz……..
Thanks Jerry. Silver is a bargain right now.
I believe for that final bottom we need to see a lot of bad companies go out of business just like Rick Rule was looking for. That’s not going to happen if price is rising.
One more break of support at 1180 over the next month or two should do the trick and finish off this bear market and give us the buying opportunity of our generation…for those that are still able to pull the trigger.
BAD COMPANIES will be around even in the blow off phase…………..just like the tech sector of 1999……..when tech companies sold for billions, without earnings.
The tech sector took in a lot of smart billionairs………LIKE TED TURNER
Not all the companies will be shaken out before a move higher…………
With the holiday here buying in precious metals in weak.
The bulls are not showing up last few weeks either.
I do agree ..to agree. .. just pacify …appease..makes it much worse.
Doc. has been good and Cory does his best.
What else can you do. I wish I knew.
Precious metals investing is highly frustrating and difficult.
Most people lose their shirt aad everything that goes with it.
Hate to repeat myself Heavy, but I don’t lose my shirt because of diversification and my reasons for holding gold and silver.
heavy hitter – agreed. i am simply a long term buy and hold player.
most people do lose because they are always on the wrong side of the switches.
Yes…General
You do know the ropes and how all this works. No one is going to fool you.
I have real most of your posts and the philosophy in the markets is… if not
100 percent my views… its very close on a long term trade basis to my own.
Short term is another ball game.
So by all means….General …all your philosophy and orders must be maintained.
Its a war and just like all the others …you will prevail.
General. …you know the enemy and his plans.
Over and out !!! Happy Easter General
Typo…I have read most of your posts…
Typing on a tiny tablet. Sorry General.
Take a look at Martin Armstrongs Economic Confidence Model, the next 8.6 year cycle top is in 2015.75, there is a 100% corelation between tops in the ECM and tops is the NYSE CAD line and the DOW. Last 2 tops in ECM were spring 1998 and summer 2007, both these years saw tops in the NYSE CAD line and DOW. Gold bullion and equiteis should be gearing up for a run starting sometime next year.
Regards,
My mistake, DOW topped in 1999.
PG – if this is true the it sounds like we can all go away and come back same time next year…
The data on the CAD line goes back 115 years and we have to see the CAD line top first. I also looked at ECM dates and tops in the CAD line and DOW all occur together give or take a year. It should be quite the volatility going forward in all markets.
you have a SCHART ?
I have the dates as I had to research on my own. Peter Elisades website used to have a chart of the CAD line going back to 1900. You can google MA’s Economic Confidence Model for the tops is his model.
2 most recent examples:
spring 1998 – CAD line tops – all-time new highs
Early 2000 – SP500/DOW top – all-time new highs
spring 2000 – NASDAQ bubble top – all-time new highs
fall 2000 – SPTSX tops as oil hits $37/barrel
june 2007 – CAD line all-time hew highs
fall 2007 – SP500/DOW all-time new highs
summer 2008 – SPTSX all-time new highs as oil spikes to $150/barrel
NYSE CAD line still making all-time new highs and surpassed 2007 all-time highs in July 2011. This bull market has a ways to go before we see a top.
PG – I sense you are right.
No matter what you throw at this market, nothing sticks.
Everything is an excuse to go higher. It has a life of its own.
Heavy – Happy Easter to you as well!
Happy to see that everyone’s getting along swimmingly; so I’ll just keep my opinions to myself.
hoppy yeaster Gents
..and you too Sally:)
Eventually the top will come. Eventually the PM’s and PM stocks will start their next bull leg. Just have to be patient and as Jessie Livermore said “Be right and sit tight”.
Happy Easter
Great question from Cory. Will the miners follow or lead the metal once a bottom in gold is about in? Doc’s answer included to maybe buy the miners early (late April, early May) before gold hits a low.
Russia/Ukraine situation “may” be improving and having a smaller impact on all markets. FOMC meeting ends April 30 and will be closely watched (duh).
$19 silver is not profitable for most of the producers.
$1300 gold is not profitable for most of the producers.
So,it is just a time to shake out the weak hands and wait.
Regardless of whether your a bull or a bear on the current price of gold.
Happy Easter to all.
I hope you all stay safe & enjoy the break with family & friends.
Best wishes to all
Cheers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-JgyEw8ggss !!!!!!!!! GOOD Friday UKRAINE !