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GARY….If you are looking at $950–$1050 ,gold , do you think silver will have an even bigger fall , & if so where do you see the silver price….Thank You.
can they even bring gold out of the ground at $950?
btw…..did you see my note to you on the 650 YEAR silver chart?
IRISH……………LOOK BELOW………Matthew posted a great chart for you………
I guess one could extrapolate a gold:silver ratio of maybe 70 and then figure out a rough price if gold is at 1050.
Need help on this one: From what Gary is saying, one could say that the Goldmans, UBSs and Morgans etc., will be long <1100/1200 and therefore appear to be abandoning Ms Yellen & the FED to defend the dollar and the stock market on their own. Believing that the FED was set up in part to protect the banks along with the dollar how is this going to play out? Wouldn't gold's move to the upside be hampered by on going smashes by the PPT?
DGHH……I Agree , RE the PPT. With what Gary is saying then that could send the GS ratio over 70….scary.
The buying opportunity of a lifetime came in December 2013. Looking at the $gold:$hui chart, it looks like a head and shoulders top is forming. The weekly gold chart is not supportive of a big decline in my opinion. In fact, it looks great.
As for ten thousand dollar gold, I don’t know why any price seems so radical to people. If a gold standard returned right now, the price would have to be 5 to 10 times higher than $10,000. So just partial backing would make $10k plausible. In 1980, the market took the gold price well beyond the price necessary to back U.S. foreign-held debt. Gold would have to trade above $20k today to do the same and would reach closer to $40k if the price overshoots by the same margin as it did in 1980. Then there’s the dow-gold ratio. Something close to 1:1 happened in 1932 and 1980. The U.S. was the biggest creditor nation in the world in 1980, now it’s the biggest debtor nation. This is likely to put more pressure on the real value of the currency which will be supportive of higher nominal stock values. 1:1 could happen well above 10k.
USA, Inc. is insolvent and increasingly lawless. How much is its common stock really worth?
Ten years ago, many commentators were saying that “you’re not going to want to live in a world with $2k gold.” Food for thought.
Matthew…….you should paste and post the 650 year chart for Silver……that would shock the shoes off Gary,,,,….
Here it is in 1998 dollars:
Thank……..THAT IS ONE GREAT CHART……………IRISH, YOU BETTER LOOK AT THIS ONE..get a picture and post it on your wall………….
Gary, does not even consider the 250 year business cycle……….per his note to me
quote” why would I consider the 250 year cycle, when no one lives that long”
I think anyone quoting from charts,,,,needs all the charts…..short, med., and long, and extra long…………
oh,,,,,forgot the word………..”does not live that long”……….sorry
I agree Matthew. Gold needs to break 1277 first too. GOFO is negative for the first time ever all 6 months. Everyone can read my thoughts on Ricks blog yesterday. FWIW…IMVHO
Matthew, if I may your view of the weekly gold chart is incorrect. The RSI recently has turned down below 50 that’s not bullish, the peaks in the RSI from the 2011 highs are making lower highs before resuming their down trend, that’s not bullish. The MACD aswell has been making lower highs off the 2011 high and since Jan 1st 2014 the upswing has been weak and at this point could start to rollover. The TSI has turned negative again since the March 17th high. The COPP indicator is aswell making lower highs since 2011 and is looking to rollover.
The trend line on the weekly chart off the Oct 2012 high across the Nov 2012 high shows perfectlt where gold needed to close above if it was to make a run at the upper trend line from the ultimate high in 2011 across the Oct 2012 high which comes in at $1575
Where gold turned back March 17th was on the trend line I mention above at just under $1400…Gold on the WEEKLY chart continues to fail at the breakout areas it needs to put behind it.
The trend line created off the Jan 2014 lows and the Feb lows had gold needing to hold above $1310, it did not.
Its always fun to project values far higher than todays market value based on this ratio and this outcome etc but it remains in clear site until gold can and does close above key levels its just a possibility.
One can blame government intervention, big evil banks and so on as to why gold is not….pick a number?….but the reality is once again the recent pop in gold has been more related to short sellers covering positions rather than the birth of a new bull run as that will require new longs buying positions in gold and not just short covering.
There are a thousands reasons why gold should be way higher in value today and in the years to come, but all those reasons are not working today and haven’t for sometime now….I’d rather invest based on todays market value than what my emotions suggest…because at the end of the day gold is $1295
Good luck to you!
I agree about the RSI and bear markets always come with declining MACD highs, but take a look at the MACD when gold hit 1180 in June compared to the MACD when it tested 1180 again in December –big positive divergence. Take a look at the MFI and the CCI after each low. Additionally, the RSI has broken above the downtrend that began in 2011 and is now retesting it from above. The action in the miners and countless other details tell me that the worst is behind us. I recognize that technical confirmation is still needed.
I am looking for the MACD to embed and the TRIX 15,9 to “kiss” before gold heads higher.
I strongly disagree with your perception that “all those reasons are not working today.” I can also assure you that I am not basing my decisions on emotion, but I can see how it might appear that way to someone who’s satisfied with living and dying by the charts. I am not afraid to use my whole brain and live and die by all available information. It has worked very well for me so far.
I wonder what your view was when gold peaked in ’07 and when it bottomed in ’08. What is your target now?
Because I trade vs a long term buy and hold approach I keep a 3,6,7 MACD below the traditional MACD as it shows the turns sooner especially on the daily action.
Decisions, opinions, targets they imo are all based on the emotional aspect of investing…if the many reasons why gold should be thousands higher in value today actually had weight then gold would be priced higher by the market, it clearly is not.
I can’t afford to live and die by my opinion or that of anyone suggesting $10,000 Gold or $500…PRICE is everything and that’s what I base my positions on, reality.
So if you used your emotions to trade gold and silver you must have shorted gold when support fell at $1525 and silver at $26.50 because regardless of all the bullish opinions that those key levels would not fall, they did and one must realize those opinions were and still are wrong today.
In 2008 as any other year I sell into strength and buy weakness as it removes the opinions on gold and silver regarding where it should be vs where it is.
As for my target, I don’t have one as I’m sitting currently short Gold-Silver and the HUI since Gold did not hold support at $1350 from falling off the $1392 high….I don’t care where it goes $50gs or $5
Re: “if the many reasons why gold should be thousands higher in value today actually had weight then gold would be priced higher by the market, it clearly is not.”
-If markets always reflected what should be, there would be no opportunity. For example, I scooped up Primero warrants for around 25 cents in 2012 and sold for as much as $1.93 in just a few months. I have been in and out of them very successfully ever since and believe they will be deep in the money when they expire in July 2015.
I think it’s meaningful that some speculative tiny juniors actually bottomed before gold even plunged in April, 2013. TYP.V, for example, bottomed at .06 in March 2013 and hit .27 a month ago. CEM.V went from .035 to .15 in the same period. The implications tend to be very good for the sector when the little guys lead “quality” off the lows. I bought 11 juniors in December when GDXJ was about $29 and did not get the feeling that I had much company. Bears are everywhere at lows, now is no different.
-My decision to buy the sector now has nothing at all to do with the potential for $10k gold.
-I also buy weakness and sell strength. I sold silver for gold in H1 2011, and sold gold from $17xx to as high as $1910. I trade plenty but mostly speculate in small juniors.
Well nice to know I have company here, if you sell into strength then your either flat or short with golds latest topping action, good stuff!
Bears are at lows, bulls are at highs and fools ride it all the way down.
By the way, the RSI action after the 2008 low was very similar to what we are seeing now. Additionally, despite the gold price being $140 lower than where it peaked last August, the RSI has found support (so far) at its August high just under 50.
If I may interrupt. Its too bad Matthew you are not featured here as a regular guest/analyst.
Your posting contributions here though are deeply appreciated. By myself and I believe I
speak for everyone here. Thanks for the wealth of information. CCI ..by the way is a very
good indicator. One I use.
Thank you HH.
Its nice to have you back…..Matthew. Won’t mention any names but I know other posters here couldn’t be happier about your return. No reply necessary. ….
Just ……Enjoy a Happy Easter Matthew
I MENTIONED THAT same thing,, TO AL TWO YEARS AGO
Jerry what’s that. ?.Matthew as a show guest.
I think Jerry anyone regularly on the forum is just
as valuable as a featured guest. Much more so as
in Matthews anaylsis is fully represented in detail.
Unfortunately I believe AL…should pay attention to
our needs here as the majority here are long term
metals investors. His idea is.. its only insurance but
there are most here with big stakes in this market.
If it was just for insurance purposes only, none of
us would be here. I know, I wouldn’t be. The guys I
see here have sizable investments in precious metals.
Unless their here just to horse around all the time.
Adding to my comment. The very reason to attract
serious investors to this forum. The comments and
anaylsis would be of high caliber here. Making this
site …a first stop shop for precious metal investors.
HH…..that Matthew should be on the show as a featured guest..
Jerry. ..I’m in agreement.
Happy Easter by the way
To be a Guest I would think there needs to be motivation for time
and commitment. However, I’m happy with excellent anaylsis in
the forum. I think with the common courtesy rules now we will
attract serious investors here like yourself bringing to the table
high caliber analysis like Matthews. I’m not so sure if anyone
can compete with Matthew but it helps having serious imvestors
here with excellent views this forum needs. I am bias because
I agree with mostly with his anaylsis. I was here buying at the bottom
and Matthew was the only one I can remember doing the same. In
the mean while Bob Moriaty was the only anaylist that called the bottom.
All the featured guests had gold going to a 1000 including the posters.
Or just couldn’t make up their mind. Unsure and wishy washy.
HH……and ALL…….Happy Easter………
Thank you for all your hard work and sensible, factual supportive arguments with a crystal clear thought process…..you are the ‘professor” extraordinaire in my opinion!
Thank you, Marc, you’re too kind!
Imagine what sandstorm gold …a streamer that finances mining co’s and then takes a % of production at $400-500/oz. Will look like at $5000 + gold!? Imagine buying a nice house for 1/15 the price effectively after a good investment. I love leverage!
Sandstorm is moving down to $4.65. I’ll in all likelihood purchase it in that area depending on what the charts say.
Doc with Fri close $5.00 support now looks to be calling….that $4.65 area is a gap that needs to be filled on the chart, Feb 14th breakout…Sandstorm was a great % gainer off the Dec lows, it has the street momentum behind it….Good luck!
Original, very astute—-I’m also looking at SLW around the $20.50-$21.00 area. We’ll see those areas and then I’ll have to decide whether the gold grind down is about over. I’m “licking my chops” at some of the potential value plays at lower levels.
In the past “licking my chops” has had me more often than not getting my a** kicked so I wait for confirmation of a low in place and using Sand as an example it the gap fills (from Jan 14th-not Feb) then a reversal candle and a close above $4.90 I’ll be back in.
It will be very interesting to see what and why we get to those levels which should suggest bottom feeding or perhaps standing aside, no-way to know until we get there!
I looked at the 650 year chart, looks like europe to me, after finding and stealing the silver from central America I guess the priced dropped quite a bit.
But if we look at the 50s with 5 billion? above ground supplys and less than a billion today, things have changed I think.
bb…………in 1477…..there was no paper currency in the OLD WORLD…………it, was not even invented until 1694 ,brought back by Marco Polo from China……
bb…………remember , a few weeks ago, we were talking about silver and 1964, and what happened in 1964? The silver was sold out of the US TRES. AND the US HAS ZERO
BUT, they are required to mint coins ………..
I googled and looked at it, then saw Mathews link. That one I could rad, sure enough, Europe and central ameican discoveries. Whats the meaning supposed to be
The meaning is that silver is at a 600 year low. (At a time when supply is tighter than ever and uses for silver are more numerous than ever and life as we know it depends on silver.)
Don’t let the last three years fool you, the future is very bright for the price of silver.
I tend to agree with you Mathew, I just read an article saying finding replacments for silver is not as easy as it sounds too.
Replacements exist but are prohibitively expensive.
Matthew…..600 year low , That’s the first time I have seen that chart (Thanks)….Everything about the metal tells me I should be over $100 dollars right now…..I have being banging the silver drum since I came to this site about 4 years ago…..Just looking at the use’s for silver today , Especially solar which in my opinion is going to take off big time in the not too distant future….This metal is going to end up in short supply…..By all accounts JPM are stock pilling a large amount…China , India are buying large amounts. That’s why I say if one has a large stash of gold consider selling some & consider converting to silver…….The SG ratio is far to high…IMO.
hey IRISH ,,,,I told him to post it ……………..where is my thanks…………he,he
I thought , you would like it ……..IT IS A GREAT CHART……..
J….Thank You…..My little crazy friend…..BTW…i did say thanks above….pay attention in class…haha.
iRISH………….Silver is in short supply according to some sources, I read….., jpm has about 6000 tons , again according to what I have read…..but, you already know that……
Irish and Jerry,
BANTERING BACK AND FORTH….AW!! The good ‘ol days….Happy Easter!
Marc……Happy Easter , to you and yours……….btw,,,Hope your mother is doing ok…..
I agree Tony. I had more gold than silver in the middle of 2011; now I have far more silver than gold (about 70/30) and will sell more gold for silver if we see the GSR beyond 80.
Couldnt agree more!
Marc…Hello…Matthew gets it , Jerry gets it , Silver gets it , You get it , & some others , despite the take down of 2011 I am even more bullish now , than I was pre 2011…………perhaps I am wrong but I believe I am not…stick with your convictions.
Irish you are right on track…………..Remember,,,,that fat lady has not sung yet…….
ditto Matthew…………..on the price of silver………
bb…………see my notes above…………….
not “rad” read.
There is something about partial backing of a money supply by gold or silver that strikes me as dishonest. It should be all or nothing and what ever the policy it should be done openly and honestly.
If Gary is the true seer of where gold is headed than I can suffer a little longer with the bear market. To be able to see how the banksters and central planners handle a protracted bull market in gold when it turns will be a great joy and source pride for my willingness to believe in something that becomes a major part of the worlds econmic system again
Gary doesn’t have to be a “true seer”
What goes up comes down and vice versa, its the timing we look for.
And it sounds like it might be getting close.
no lower than 1240, no capitulation. (over the next 3 weeks)
below 1240, we go to about $1000 hmmm, who was saying we could get there about 2 years ago? I forget.lol
I still think that’s the point the Chinese (and others) increase buying.
Your right Gary, makes no difference what happens, we “should” be hitting about 7k and maybe 10k. Im sure you know depending on the math projections go MUCH higher.
Anyone buying 5-10% physical and holding have no worries, traders, hmmmmm, wheres that best bottom of my life going to be?
Thanks very much Gary for your opinions.
Best part of this interview in my opinion, is Al saying that he hopes that gold doesn’t hit $10,000. That’s the most important comment I’ve heard this year.
We have to get revalued to 7-8k just to “balance the books”
10k the world could handle.
And that # could be a spike.
If the rise was orderly, perhaps. But any disorderly rise would cause panic and chaos, and everything would freeze – banks, paychecks, food supply chain, gas and heating oil shortages, etc. I for one hope that we get out of this mess.
The night is darkest before dawn. We need leaders to lead us out of this. Same for overpopulation and pollution. It’s time to lead and not give up. It has to start though w/justice and punishment for those who pushed jobs overseas though. Jobs is the key to starting the US over again, and living in balance w/this environment, planet Earth, me thinks.
Leaders are responsible for the mess. We need free markets to lead us out. The most dangerous superstition is the belief in authority.
I’m not sure what that means, ’cause I’m fine w/authority if it does the right thing, but we people need to work together to make this a better place, and that starts w/education like here on Al’s show.
Bill, we are witnessing the orderly rise.
Our challenge is to be invested for the “legs up”
Am 100% w/ya.
My mistake to say that pushing jobs overseas is wrong … I really don’t know if that’s right or wrong … what I really am worried about is the debt, and how to get out of it. Sorry for my mistake there.
bb…………I think you could have $50,000 per oz. just to cover all the printed paper., this number has been quoted by others……….
ootb, if gold went to $50,000 the Christians would have their Armagedon and rapture.
Things will be resolved long before that happens.
PROVERB 11:1……a false balance is an abomination to the LORD, but, a just weight is his delight.
Bill…I agree if gold hits $10.000 , it means the system has collapsed which is bad for the majority of the worlds population….I would rather see my silver going to $1 an ounce .
Today is your last chance to stack Silver Buffalo rounds at 65cents over spot.
Ends 5pm, est.
Not a bad price, thought I would post it for people that figure there is a difficulty
Eagles are 95 cents over spot.
$7.77 shipping cost ANY ORDER. Limited time tho.
Article 5 of the constitution deals with adding amendments.
1st.all 27 added by a vote in congress with 2/3 of house and senate agreeing.
2/3 of state legislatures demand a meeting;
and “congress shall call a convention for proposeing amendments”
Never in history has this happened.
Michigan state legislature just voted to cll ameeting over the budget.
the 34th state to do so.
that’s 2/3rds of states demanding a convention.
This is a HUGE moment in U.S. history,
any excitement in Washington? Nope being ignored.
Where are all the people that have sworn to defend the constitution now?
thanks for the post………….
Bundy about cows? I think it has to do with far more than that.
You know it was not about the cows………,,hey, there is a new report a zero hedge on this matter…..a great follow up from our conversation the other day……….
bb…….It was never about the cows…….It was always about the GREEDY PIGS.
howw can you call anything if the boyz are manipulating the market? I do not understand this. JP Morgan calls the shots. How can you go by technacals? Makes no sense to me. I am long term so the lower the better—more gold at lower prices. What about silver?
Hi tim…I have being saying for ages the charts are useless , day to day yes maybe long term rubbish……What about silver ?……Read my previous posts…..IMO silver is the place to be……..But I could be totally wrong.
The COT report for this week—– The commercial traders (so-called smart money) are neutral on silver but a net long of about 9000 contracts for gold.
Mine is emailed to me. Haven’t received it yet. COT is not very bullish on gold.
GOFO… is very bullish in my opinion. First time ever…..negative all 6 months.
We are still holding support too. The miners need to turn soon IMVHO
Happy Easter .. …….I didn’t get any golden eggs in my easter basket this year
OK I see what you are saying.
I’ll take it one step further and note that the Blees rating (a measure of the commercial net positions compared to the last 18 months) is now at 71. 100 being the most bullish and 0 being the most bearish. So the commercials are a little on the bullish side of neutral at the moment. When the Blees rating gets above 95 I start to really take notice.
As gold moves down into the impending daily cycle low over the next 2-3 weeks I’ll watch the Blees rating and if it pushes above 90 or if it hits 100 that would be a very bullish development and have the potential to abort any capitulation phase.
I think you may be looking at the wrong data. The commercials are net short 87,605 contracts. That’s an improvement from the net short level of 101,743 last week, but quite a ways from being net long.
The last time the commercials had a net long position in gold was 2001.
When I refer to a net long, it’s not the total number of total ongoing contracts for the week but the change in positions between the added or subtracted longs and shorts for the week. Example: if 3000 long contracts are added and 6000 short contracts are dropped, there is an added net long position of 9000 contracts. I probably could have been clearer by mentioning the word “added”.
Having said that, I notice the “added” net long position was actually about 14000 contracts instead of 9000.
It’s interesting that since gold peaked a month ago, total open interest for gold has come DOWN 84,000 contracts (more than 10%) while open interest for silver has gone UP 22,000 contracts (more than 10%). For gold, there was an equal reduction of Commercial long and short interest while silver saw Commercial long interest jump more than 20% and short interest gain less than 3%.
This appears to be bullish for the whole sector but is of little use from a timing standpoint.
The next 2-3 weeks will tell us where the bottom is going to come at in late May or early June.
Don’t let …The General. …see that report…Gary
I doubt if he’s going to be pleased. Probably could have waited till after easter
Gold normally rallies from August and by the end of September it is pretty much done for the year. People are talking about crazy gold numbers up to 10,000 and more. You have to consider demand too. There would be almost no demand left beyond $2000. Buyers could switch to silver. The Chinese and Indians are the main buyers and they have very low per capita incomes.
I have to disagree. A break above the 2011 high would bring huge demand. The sheeple of the west will finally come in just as they did when gold recaptured $200 (after falling 50%) in the 1970s. Nothing attracts dumb money like a soaring market –tulips, tech stocks, gold, it doesn’t matter. The desire to get out of currencies (fear) combined with the fear of missing the boat (greed) will make for one heckuva ride. Gold went up 25x in the 1970s. A repeat (starting with $250 gold) would take gold to $6250 and the situation today dwarfs that of the seventies in both seriousness and scale.
There’s a lot of BIG dumb money out there that still has little to no exposure to the sector. They will pay up.
Since 1991 the US has been a net exporter of gold of 5577 tons.
Germany can’t receive only a fraction of gold from the Fed.
The US gold inventories at Fort Knox is maybe 2500 tons.
Thats the only place Fort Knox is where the gold could have come from.
Al, et all….enjoy a very good easter…im in Niagra Falls roughing it in an RV ha ha…not quite bellingham but still pretty great. Lots of talk about where PM is going an how it is getting there. I am seeing an AB-BC-CD pattern (bearish pennant) in the GDXJ that signals a target of 30.5. Rick has shifted his target from 34.4 to 34.0 to 33 something. Rick is truly a master, so I am do not discredit his experience and chalk our differing targets up to different time frames we are considering. But I really think that PM is in for a pretty good drop, I do not know if it will grind down (Doc) or capitulate (Gary) biut I am currently short GDXJ and as of today (Fri) I am still looking at 30.5 as the ultimat bottom before it turns around. At that point it is just going to be silly profits IMHO.
In 2008 when Al was loosing sleep over the loses he had taken in PM stocks he posted a KE Report where he said that we were at an historic buying opportunity…I was also loosing sleep over my loses but I bit the bullet and bought as much as I was able….I do not regret that contrary decision. I think we are seeing the setup for another historic buying opportunity. Al is stronger with fundamental analysis, and from a fundamental standpoint with a longer term view, I am not putting any money in anything but PM and other hard assets (things I can touch). My only regret right now is that I dont have more cash that I could dump into PM when we finally bottom later this spring. The Jun-Sep seasonal buy is going to be spectacular. A slight drop Sep-Oct the most likely a continuation of the silly profit scenario. …I am really watching closely and getting ready to buy in a very big way because my due diligence tells me that we are on the cusp of a huge opportunity in PM. Best of luck to all those that take a peak at this site, I hope we all make enough to want to want to toss back a glass or tow of the red stuff and celebrate with the missus while talking about the legacy we will leave behind.
I’m very fond of a Stevie Nicks song: Dreams. A lyric in the song suggests: “I’ll keep my visions to myself now; have you any dreams you’d like to sell?” – so the point being: For those of us who dollar cost averaged into gold at +1,450 and did same with silver at +50 dollars … and who didn’t have any cash to spend last year when the June bottom showed … looking forward to a time when (perhaps) cash on hand will meet with a metals bottom. I don’t care about how high gold or silver rise … I just want to lower my dollar cost average base. Hoping to do same with all the miners that have been beaten up since I dollar cost averaged into their risky game. So here we talk INVESTING and I do have a few dreams to sell – but – visions to keep to myself … here is hoping Gary is spot on … and … Al, please do keep reminding us about those damn fundamentals! Not to worry about $10K gold (so long as you are long on long term food storage and heat your home with wood). Happy Easter and may God bless us all.
Just reading back over this weeks comments on the forum…
Some of the most accurate predictions for this past week were predicted by someone who has been MIA the past few days. .
Well done Bird…nice work.
Some nice calls were made Bird…more accurate than a lot made on here
Gold will rise from here, and go to 1400 realy fast…people change from stocks to gold.
Hello all… Just fyi, I’m long chocolate Easter Bunnies this weekend! (Happy Easter or Happy Whatever Makes You Happy Tomorrow)
As for Gold/Silver I pay close attention to KER regularly. I enjoy reading the comments which for the most part are intelligent and insightful. I gather info from a variety of contrarian-type sites and then make my own decisions based on that intel. So this morning I’m sifting through a bevy of articles looking for anything bullish on Silver when I come across this from Jeff Clark: http://www.growthstockwire.com/3731/trading-alert-our-silver-indicator-is-flashing-buy-
Since he’s a short-term trader, he lays out a “flashing buy signal” case on some indicators illustrated on a one-year Silver chart. To me it looks like a pennant being stretched out with a possible short-term sell signal to appear somewheres around $21 (if he’s right). And he says he’s been right all along over the last year…
“Every trade using these signals over the past year has been profitable. If you only bought silver when the chart had “buy” signals and sold on the “sell” signals, you could have generated profits even as the metal lost 20% of its value over the past year.”
His words, yeah and oh, btw, I do not subscribe to his paid sub offers although I’ve been paying more attention to his articles on Growth Stock Wire lately. My experience trading “alongside” Jeff Clark has been sort of a push–I’m mean like 50/50, but he did make a great call on coffee (JO) back in January.
Anyhoo… Gary… Question: Of all the indicators available to you in technical analysis, which would you say are your top three?
I don’t follow technical indicators that much. They are way down on the list of things I look at. Everyone can look at indicators, and if everyone can see them then more often than not they don’t work.
My main tool is cycle analysis. I back that up with sentiment indicators and finally I use some technicals to hone entries and exits. By technicals I’m mostly just looking at support and resistance zones.
The resistance zone between 1320-30 was where I expected this rally to run out of steam and that is what happened. The fact that the intermediate cycle had rolled over told me that the rally back above 1300 was just a counter trend move.
Thanks for the reply– Very interesting. I have to admit I’m wet behind the ears when it comes to cycle analysis. Re. sentiment indicators, I understand how extremes in the markets seem to trigger turning points; just haven’t been able to really nail it down with any measure of consistency in my trading. Although I’m of the school of thought that a guy can be successful if he’s right only 30% of the time. Gonna try to learn more about cycle analysis though. Can never have too many tricks in the trick bag!
I trade gold often, and yeah it would go down to low 1200’s,
then we shall see how it will move then. It is possible it may break $1200,
but there will be a lot of struggle above $1200.
In regards to $10,000, this Gary guy is WRONG!
First, just look at recent years, it maxed out to around $1900 and there were
tons of struggles btw bulls and bears there!
Secondly, even the Ukrainian crisis hardly moved gold at all.
Thirdly, USD and US economy is getting stronger month by month.
Finally, ppl saw the struggles of gold in the last 2-3 yrs, so there will Not be
many greedy ppl who will chase it, even above $2K!
so $10K is absolutely out of the question, forever! ๐
LOL just wait till gold enters it’s bubble phase. During the last gold bull it went from $35 to $850. A 2500% increase.
The problems are even bigger this time which suggest an even bigger move than in the 70’s.
If gold just repeats what it did in the 70’s and rises 2500% then it would go to $6250.
Good point Gary. Talk with you in 20 minutes.
Gary is right. None of John’s points have any merit whatsoever. I’ll second that LOL!
LOL, if only you could use some logic and common sense.
Look at the charts, how Long did it take to go from $800 to $1920 ??
How many years??
Secondly, those who do not trade gold often do not understand the
“psychological” barriers where bulls and bears each day of the year!
There are hidden psychological barrier at around xx25-30, 45/50, 75/80, 95/100..
in other words, just look at the recent 1300s, you would see barriers at 1325/30,
1345/50, 1375/80, 95/99..
Thus, to reach from 1300-1400, there are 4 barriers.
to go from 1300 t0 10,000 you will face over 350 (three hundred and fifty) barriers!
Now, you can really understand why it took so many years to go from $800
it aint gonna happen!
dont give me about the fundamentals of USD goin to worth nothin’.
it does not work that way..
again.. just look at the charts from $800 to $1800.. and learn the history
about dot com bust etc etc.. it’s all there about technical, psychological
barriers + even fundamental barriers.
have fun ๐
Yes, there are major areas of resistance (“barriers”) on the way to the 2011 high. The same was true after gold fell by an even greater percentage in the mid 1970s. However, once the old high was taken out, gold flew more than four fold in short order. Each leg higher within a secular bull market comes with an acceleration.
What’s left of the scared and clueless former bulls will use the coming strength to get out completely. Learn from history. Participation, sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals all point to much more upside. It’s not different this time. There has been no secular top.
I will have fun. You should do the same.
Gary gave the exmaple of $35 to $800,
and you seemed to use same tactic of “flew more than four times’..
but both of you are using wrong analogy and sticks of measurements.
When ppl got shocked then, yeah,,it was easy to move from $35 to $100..
and easily a couple hundreds dollars..
But look the world economies over the last decades, you cannot expect
ppl to be greedy to chase it from $1,000 to $2,000 or $3,000
Here is the KEY to everything!
I dont want to give the answer.. but i want every investor to think for Himself
or Herself.. and come up with your own answer! — if you can find the answer then
you are likely to succeed later on ๐
here is the clue:
.. the US had the Great Recession a few years ago,, it was almost like the worst
“depression” since the late 1920s Great Depression..
if you had followed the gold movement then.. ask Yourself:
WHY did gold not go ballistic to $3,000 or even above $2,000 ???
I would say that gold did go, figuratively speaking, ballistic. I would call $800 to over $1,900 somewhat ballistic. Now that the recession is supposedly easing we are back to about $1290/oz. That is a bit over a 50% increase since the beginning of the recession.
Interesting that you used the word “had” -past tense. The worst is still ahead, in my opinion. Furthermore, considering that the events of 2008 were highly deflationary (causing great strength in the senior currency), I would say that gold did quite well. It did double against commodities in just four months and even tripled against the dollar from its 2008 low. From 2000 to 2011, the Dow lost about 90% of its value when measured in gold (from more than 44 ounces to less than 6). Inflation of the currency has hidden this decline from you.
The next round in the slow-motion collapse of the West will be caused by too much liquidity and too little demand for that liquidity. Don’t let the last three years fool you.
Re: “But look the world economies over the last decades, you cannot expect
ppl to be greedy to chase it from $1,000 to $2,000 or $3,000”
I don’t see your point or logic here. It seems that you are too impressed with zeros. The dollar price of gold tells you about the dollar’s value. If you want to know how gold is doing, compare it to other real assets. To simply say that the dollar ain’t what it used to is a gross understatement. But I’ll leave it at that.
Right, Al, and gold is still up 5x since the REAL peak for the economy and the Dow in 2000.
The other thing that many ppl do not understand well
is the role of physical gold buying by the public, specifically
in india and china.
When gold reached $1700s, I read the news that jewellery stores
in india were very quiet as many ppl did not want to buy gold and
opted to stay out of the market! People were rather scared as to the
high prices of the gold then,, so even as speculators rode up the wave
it $1920, in the end, the little ppl held an important Key in deciding how
gold would move! in other words, the Fundamentals (physical buying
component) played a key role.
Now that china is the leader, the above fundamental will also go through
the same route, money, greed/fear are the same everywhere!
Gary! Your full of baloney!!