Gary Savage – Tue 22 Apr, 2014

Kudos to Gary, Rick and Doc. Here’s Gary

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Featuring:
Al KorelinCory FleckGary Savage

Comments:
  1. On April 22, 2014 at 10:10 am,
    NYC says:

    Gold is really looking weak…GDX is bouncing a litle bit but barely green. Seem like we are at 1280 overnight they may take it down and if so look out below…

  2. On April 22, 2014 at 10:12 am,
    pg says:

    Ross Clark of CIBC Wood Gundy has done some great chart work with respect to Gold bullion and capitulation. In 1975 Gold bullion registered a “Capitulation Alert” signal and then proceeded to bottom in late 1976. Last fall Gold Bullion registered a “Capitulation Alert” for only the 3rd time over the past 30 or so years and so we should be seeing a low for Gold Bullion between now and 2016.

    If I can find Ross’ charts and post a link.

    Regards

    • On April 22, 2014 at 1:38 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Thanks pg

  3. On April 22, 2014 at 10:20 am,
    Matthew says:

    My 17 little juniors are up 2.2% today. This is not bearish action considering that gold is down, GDXJ (large juniors) is down, and the Dow is up. The tiny “risky” stuff has bullishly outperformed the larger miners for the last year. I was a buyer yesterday and am buying today –selectively.

    “Charts don’t create fundamentals. Fundamentals create charts. Bank traders take their cue from demand, or lack of it, in the physical gold market. Investors who are currently afraid of lower prices may be overly focused on the picture they see on various gold charts.”
    —Stewart Thomson
    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_042214.html

    • On April 22, 2014 at 10:36 am,
      original jj says:

      If one does use Fundamentals create the Charts, well then the fundamentals since 2011 have been telling gold and silver investors the Bear is in full control.

      There are so many flawed fundamentals as to why gold and silver and its miners should be many % points higher….Price is everything.

      Based on fundamentals Matthew the majority of precious metals investors are underwater…if they learned that fundamentals only apply during the bull phase they would far better off than hoping price catches up with fundamentals.

      If fundamentals have not been able to break gold out of its 3 year bear trend, what will?

      • On April 22, 2014 at 11:00 am,
        Matthew says:

        The fundamentals (and the charts!) have only improved since the gold sector turned in 2011. The Dow went up 7.33 times versus GDXJ in the last three years. It more than doubled versus gold. It became massively overbought against both. Where do you think the risk is greatest? Value is everything (at least to those who understand).

        ” The bears are making a mistake, taking on both the Indian buyers and the bullion banks, using just charts. Gold is the ultimate asset, but perhaps some people have to learn that, the hard way!” —Stewart Thomson

        The weak hands are either out or short.

        • On April 22, 2014 at 11:11 am,
          original jj says:

          Gold is the ultimate asset, but perhaps some people have to learn that, the hard way!” —Stewart Thomson

          The only ones making real % gains are those trading gold from the short side since 2011 and buying breakouts while gold shorts cover which has been July 2013 and Jan 2014….I’d sat there are far, far more gold investors who’s net worth has been crushed holding onto that “ultimate asset” dream and they have had a real hard lesson in following BullShit…..lots of time to add % gains to short positions before the outcome of India’s election and what it will mean to the publics allowance owning gold…its worth watching no doubt.

          Gold has hit $1276 today only a close above $1290 would be bullish…we’ll see

          • On April 22, 2014 at 11:39 am,
            Matthew says:

            Long OR short, most people lose. Nothing new about that.

          • On April 22, 2014 at 1:43 pm,
            Big Al says:

            The key word here is “most” and the next key word is “greed”!

          • On April 22, 2014 at 11:53 am,
            original jj says:

            Isn’t that the truth!….must say I don’t know of any other sector that has the likes of KingWorldNuts with the consistently incorrect rocket launch calls for gold and the overnight destruction of the worlds reserve currency, such Dooooom and Gloooom…what other sector has such misleading web-site like the pm’s….oil?…copper?…bonds?..tech stocks?…pharma?..crazy stuff ah!

          • On April 22, 2014 at 12:23 pm,
            GH says:

            Certainly KWN is no good for trading.

            But can you really complain about getting the big picture from the likes of Paul Craig Roberts, Richard Russell, and just this past week Victor Sperandeo and Philippa Malmgren?

          • On April 22, 2014 at 12:39 pm,
            Matthew says:

            As i pointed out last week, commercial long interest in silver jumped 20% since gold peaked in March while short interest rose just 3%.

            Stewart Thomson said today:
            “I certainly don’t see a possible new range of $1230 – $1280 as something that any investor should fear. To understand why that is, please click here now . That’s the latest COT report for gold. It’s clear that the most powerful banks in the world aren’t afraid of this election-related softness in the price.
            They are aggressive buyers of outright long positions, and rightly so.
            Please click here now . That’s the most recent COT report for silver, and the banks are even more aggressive buyers here.
            http://www.graceland-updates.com/images/stories/14apr/2014apr22si1.png

      • On April 22, 2014 at 1:09 pm,
        jane says:

        Gary–how much lower can the juniors go?

        • On April 22, 2014 at 1:48 pm,
          Big Al says:

          Want my opinion? Well, here it is anyway – not much. And that is why I am sleeping okay at night!

  4. On April 22, 2014 at 10:22 am,
    Lawrence says:

    I have $50K cash to buy into the capitulation. I also have $250K available as line of credit. I don’t think I intent to use it. I haven’t been able to buy anything since Jan 1 and only trades I have done are selling. However, I feel silver has bottomed and anytime gold dips the GSR goes down at the later stage and then gold starts to recover, which is extremely rare. GSR usually rises to the highest at the lowest gold price. I am trying to buy Sprott Silver Fund but it is only 15 cents away yesterday and today from my bid. It is challenging to my patience. I wish the manipulators try harder. Get it over with.

    • On April 22, 2014 at 1:40 pm,
      Big Al says:

      I personally would not buy anything, at my stage of the game, on credit! Just sayin

      • On April 22, 2014 at 3:29 pm,
        Gator says:

        Big Al…I think we are both at “our stages”…….and you are correct….no credit….debt free…..stash of wine and scotch….and a pontoon anchored just outside the back door….next to the golf course….block away from a nice restaurant…….yea…….

        • On April 22, 2014 at 10:09 pm,
          Big Al says:

          Quadruple yea!

    • On April 22, 2014 at 6:03 pm,
      Brian says:

      Hello Lawrence

      I hold PSLV (Sprott Silver Fund) in my ROTH. I am also waiting for one last block purchase slightly below today’s closing price. I have been averaging into PSLV since 01Jan2014

      Today was very odd: Silver was down very slightly (- 0.3%), but PSLV was up (+ 0.8%).
      Although this happens occasionally, it seems that some may be buying PSLV in anticipation of a higher silver spot price and higher PSLV NAV. The NAV is very low (+1.7%) compared to the premium for physical bullion (10-15%). All of this tells me that Silver may be bottoming here.

      Brian

      • On April 22, 2014 at 8:00 pm,
        Lawrence says:

        Hi Brian,

        I feel the behaviour of silver is very strange last year. In 2008, when gold dropped 30% gold silver ratio went to 86. And this time even when gold droped by 38%, the gold silver ratio only dropped to 67 at the worst. This reminded me what John Embry said a few years ago, when bullion banks are stuck with their huge silver short (on both exchange and OTC), they may dump gold and cover silver. Even I have no proof, this might be what was happening for the last year and half. Unlike gold, silver is consumed. A short position in silver can really hurt. Gary said that we will have a capitulation in gold and gold silver ratio will go to 70. If hoistory is guide, for that level of crash, gold silver ratio can be well over 100. However, it is not what is happening. Now silver cost of product in silver is well over $23, with the rapid inflation and grade goes down 50% every 10 years, it will be cost prohibitive to mine. Most silver mines will go broke and there is no silver available. However, there is no silver, there is no electronics. So I am buying silver.

  5. On April 22, 2014 at 10:27 am,
    J........the Long.............ootb says:

    zerohedge…..CALIFORNIA……200,000 people ages 50-64 living in their parent’s home….and not by choice.
    ..GRANDMA…..taking care of their kids………BABY BOOMER OR BABY BOMB.

    • On April 22, 2014 at 10:30 am,
      J........the Long.............ootb says:

      Real estate sales down……….12month low………….CASH IS KING…….more investors paying CASH………not looking good……

      • On April 22, 2014 at 1:41 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Kind of not the case where we live Jerry. But it is still far from being a strong market!

      • On April 22, 2014 at 3:31 pm,
        Gator says:

        Florida real estate deals are staggering…worst is yet to come….get prepared people… It won’t be pretty……

        • On April 22, 2014 at 10:10 pm,
          Big Al says:

          Odds are in your favor!

        • On April 23, 2014 at 9:49 am,
          J........the Long.............ootb says:

          Gator……I think I would have to agree with you………….ootb

    • On April 22, 2014 at 1:40 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Only 200K. I would have thought it was much higher.

      What a sad state of affairs!

      • On April 22, 2014 at 6:14 pm,
        Brian says:

        Al

        It should be the opposite: The 50-64 year old demographic should be HELPING their parents. What a strange country I live in.

        I am in my 50s; my parents are quite comfortable and have prepared for their retirement (as am I doing), but I would not hesitate (for a second) to help them if they needed financial assistance.

        Brian

        • On April 22, 2014 at 10:14 pm,
          Big Al says:

          I do agree!

        • On April 23, 2014 at 10:03 am,
          J........the Long.............ootb says:

          Brian ……the statistics are ………..that age group ….75% have less than $10,000 in savings………..This is just an eye opener of things to come…………

          • On April 23, 2014 at 10:04 am,
            J........the Long.............ootb says:

            When you have 148,000,000 on the take………..something has to give.

          • On April 23, 2014 at 10:29 am,
            Matthew says:

            Right Jerry, the workforce has to “give!”

          • On April 23, 2014 at 11:55 am,
            J........the Long.............ootb says:

            that is a good one Matthew…….Ha,ha…I like…….

  6. On April 22, 2014 at 10:29 am,
    James (the lesserr) says:

    Really not hard to call for lower gold prices.

    Prices have been falling for almost three years now
    It’s kind of a no brainer play.

    Until something changes it’s down down down.

    This is an easy call.

    Only the holdouts that refuse to see this are on the wrong side of the trade

    I’ll give kudos when someone can mail the bottom and then call the next top, with timeframes

    • On April 22, 2014 at 10:41 am,
      Lawrence says:

      The common sense tells me that printing money results in higher gold price. I am willing to hold to the end since gold is not going to 0. I don’t think anyone is good at picking trend change since every one tried it has been slaughtered, e.g. you always pick the high point and have to liquidate at the low. The current trend change is manufactured by western governments and it is the standard technique used in FX intervention. It is intented to convert enemies into their friends and kill them by leaving them behind. Not all can capture the trend change even all of them employ the same technique. Majority must lose in the market by definition.

      • On April 22, 2014 at 10:46 am,
        J........the Long.............ootb says:

        well said…..Lawrence…………..

        • On April 22, 2014 at 11:00 am,
          Marc, San Diego says:

          Ditto….You either UNDERSTAND why you own Gold or you dont……and DONT continue to tell us how the market says otherwise….blah, blah..you know who you are…….AGAIN, if you trade consistently and/or play with margin…goooooood luck…you will need it.

          • On April 22, 2014 at 11:24 am,
            Lawrence says:

            Good comments. My part of the world has tradition to save in physical precious metals. I remember I saw the silver coins my grand parents put into a box even they were poor. They said those things save lives. In the worst time of culture revolution, my parents sold those silver coins. They used to make two onces of silver a month.

      • On April 22, 2014 at 1:42 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Man, that has sure not been the rule over the last few years! Go figure!

      • On April 22, 2014 at 6:15 pm,
        Brian says:

        Lawrence and Matthew are the contrarians today 🙂

  7. On April 22, 2014 at 11:18 am,
    pg says:

    Last 2 major bull legs for mining stocks (HUI), started in late 2000 and late 2008. Opportunity is coming once US Indexes have topped and started their decline into next major bottoms. Just study charts and provides clues. This pattern was no different in the 1920’s and 1930’s.

    Regards

  8. On April 22, 2014 at 11:24 am,
    ArnieD says:

    Nothing, in any market, manipulated or not, can sustain itself for long, if the selling price is lower than production cost. My average cost for gold is about $900, which is below production cost for just about everybody, so will I sell my bullion? Not a chance! In silver, I’m about at break even, but won’t sell that either. I’m not sure how long it will take to reach levels that will entice me to sell, but it could be when hell freezes over.

  9. On April 22, 2014 at 1:00 pm,
    NYC says:

    Gary even tho GDX was up a % today due to GS please notice the anemic Volume…i hope we get a washout and soon

  10. On April 22, 2014 at 1:06 pm,
    ManAboutDallas says:

    Seems many still want to completely ignore the incredible resilience that both gold and silver are showing in the face of this “gotta collapse! gotta collapse NOW!” mentality. They’re certainly struggling in the face of this intermediate down cycle that Mr. Savage has correctly identified but just their sheer resilience in the face of it ought to be turning on more light bulbs than are coming on. When this cycle does finish – and I suspect it will be SOONER rather than later, the resilience is telling us this – the ensuing rally will, indeed, be spectacular precisely BECAUSE gold and silver fought so hard and held up so well.

    • On April 22, 2014 at 1:31 pm,
      Gary says:

      The real tell will come once gold starts down into it’s final daily cycle low. At the moment the bulls are still trying to fight the down trend. Usually daily cycle’s don’t bottom until the bulls throw in the towel. Once we see how far down gold goes when we get to the throw in the towel phase I’ll have a good idea whether or not $1180 is going to hold.

      • On April 22, 2014 at 6:19 pm,
        Brian says:

        Gary

        With respect, the longs threw in the towel twice in the past year @ 1180-ish (double-bottom)

        I must say … I always listen to your segments on KER and enjoy your particular perspective.

        Brian

    • On April 22, 2014 at 1:33 pm,
      Gary says:

      I would note that if we don’t get a capitulation phase then the rally out of the bottom is going to be very slow and agonizing for the rest of the summer. 2 days up one day down type of action. The kind that kills both bulls and bears alike.

      To get the rocket launch everyone is looking for we need a capitulation phase.

    • On April 22, 2014 at 1:41 pm,
      Marc, San Diego says:

      GREAT COMMENTS…Dallas, very, very astute….my friend…and I MEAN very!!

      • On April 22, 2014 at 1:49 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Do you mean “very”?

      • On April 22, 2014 at 1:49 pm,
        original jj says:

        Hope will NOT take gold to da moon, New Buyers with very deep pockets will need to move in and instead of selling into every decent pop gold makes (last 3 year trend) the pauses should be very shallow…..as much as most hate the speculators its they would create the momentum the hedge funds look for….they could careless that momentum is labeled Gold, as long as any market is trending higher they will appear….Big money is very lazy

      • On April 22, 2014 at 1:53 pm,
        ManAboutDallas says:

        Why, thanks Marc; a lifetime spanning two different careers that both required keen powers of observation allows me to see subtle things others apparently miss. The Cassandra Chorus Collapse Crowd ( say, that alliterated nicely, didn’t it? ) are also under-estimating geo-political factors, some of which are right in front of us this coming month.

        • On April 22, 2014 at 9:54 pm,
          Big Al says:

          Much as I hate to disagree with my friends, I do agree with you on this one. But then again you too are a friend!

    • On April 22, 2014 at 1:47 pm,
      Big Al says:

      I would agree Man About

  11. On April 22, 2014 at 1:56 pm,
    original jj says:

    What ever happened to Birdman….he certainly correctly called the latest action in the metals, don’t know if he was actually short but he nailed the pricing action….somebody peeee him off?

    • On April 22, 2014 at 2:12 pm,
      Birdman says:

      Not peed. I was just a little tired and cranky is all. Thought I would cheer myself up these past few days so the wife and I went out and bought a condo and a spiffy new motorcycle. Vroom vroom! Wheeeeee! (there are no condo sounds I can think of in case you were wondering). So anyway, while we were about town we found a partner for our turtle who has been going crazy since it is the mating season here in our parts. He is a big boy. Maybe 40 kilos but my gal is a good match as she rings in at 35. We will see how they work out together sometime tomorrow when he arrives. This poor gal has been in captivity for more than 50 years according to the previous owner and probably does not even know what another turtle looks like since she has been isolated since the beginning. We are really hoping she will produce some offspring which would be fantastic…..by the way, I may be running contrary to the crowd here but my bet is gold is going to rise short term beginning later tonight and into tomorrow. Just saying.

      • On April 22, 2014 at 4:23 pm,
        Gary says:

        I’m with you bird. One more spurt higher to lure in more hopefuls followed by another leg down into a daily cycle low by next Friday. After that its anyone’s guess. Maybe that is a final bottom or maybe we get one more daily cycle to a lower low.

        http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p49246035568&a=348048450&listNum=1

        • On April 22, 2014 at 6:22 pm,
          Brian says:

          I think “one more spurt” is what Birdman is hoping for his turtle, too.

          Oh dear … this may get me banned …

          • On April 22, 2014 at 10:16 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Strike one! Just kidding.

        • On April 22, 2014 at 9:19 pm,
          Dan, calgary says:

          That is exactly where my money is now. IMHO we get what that chart is implying.

      • On April 22, 2014 at 10:01 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Good to have you back.

        What kind of bike?

        • On April 23, 2014 at 4:26 am,
          Birdman says:

          No Harleys over here Al. No BMW’s either or any of the other great bikes. We got one of the popular Chinese knock-off models that are not likely to ever hit the shores of the US but are as common as salt in most poor African countries. Got to say they do a decent job of making copies though. They even get the sound almost right.

    • On April 22, 2014 at 9:59 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Don’t think so. Bird is pretty intelligent and very thick skinned.

      • On April 23, 2014 at 4:22 am,
        Birdman says:

        My sensitive side was showing through last week. I must try a little harder to just let some of the comments go without a response.

  12. On April 22, 2014 at 6:19 pm,
    Paul L says:

    I moved into Tesla, a strong momentum stock and great potential.

    • On April 22, 2014 at 7:02 pm,
      ManAboutDallas says:

      Good for you, Paul! Drive it over a cliff, why don’t ‘cha? Take 3 or 4 hundred of your best friends along with you; they’ll enjoy the scenery as much as you, I’m sure.

      • On April 23, 2014 at 8:59 am,
        Paul L says:

        Personally I drive 2 Porsches and 2 Audis. The only makes I buy.

    • On April 22, 2014 at 10:15 pm,
      Big Al says:

      And, what appears to be a great product.

      • On April 23, 2014 at 5:33 am,
        ManAboutDallas says:

        It’ll still be just a footnote in history, like Packard, Studebaker, and Nash. They’re running on fumes and hype right now, thinking they’re a “mass market” producer in what is, and always will be, a “niche” market.

        • On April 23, 2014 at 7:41 am,
          Dan, calgary says:

          I wonder if one of the previously government supported auto manufacturers will buy it up. What if a company like Kia buys it up and uses the technology for more than a run up of a stock price.

    • On April 23, 2014 at 9:53 am,
      J........the Long.............ootb says:

      The BIG OIL….and politicians are not going to let an electric car survive…….

      • On April 23, 2014 at 9:54 am,
        J........the Long.............ootb says:

        look at NJ…..and the Unions………..

        • On April 23, 2014 at 9:56 am,
          J........the Long.............ootb says:

          PETRO DOLLAR…..PETRO YUAN…….that should give someone a hint………
          this is the same problem the ethanol business had in the 1979 , with the
          DOE, AND FmHA…………

          • On April 23, 2014 at 9:58 am,
            J........the Long.............ootb says:

            I think the idea of electric car is great………I think renewable energy is great, it is just not great for a bunch of politicians at the water trough

      • On April 23, 2014 at 5:08 pm,
        ManAboutDallas says:

        Tesla’s footnote in history will be “The 21st Century Tucker”.