Gary does not think May will be a good month for the precious metals
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Gary is depressed, not to mention consumed by his own recency bias and self-induced fear. As evidence of this, go back and notice that twice during the interview – not once, but twice – he makes reference to “… last week in May, first week in APRIL “. Of course he MEANS “June” but this is the sort of confusion that besets a depressed brain. Ask any psychologist. Gary needs a vacation, badly, and I say that with genuine sympathy, not derision.
Remember, “In crisis there is opportunity”!
I was just a bit tired today. I actually would prefer a capitulation because it would then generate a monster move up out of that bottom. So that’s what I’m hoping for but I’m doubtful we will get it.
No sweat, man. We appreciate you dropping by day after day, rain or shine. On the topic of capitulation…..I think we are in the midst of that process right now. The most ardent of promoters on gold-bug-blogs will never stop hyping but it is the comments sections of those blogs that are most revealing. Silver Doctors is a good example where you often see more than just a little cynicism seeping in. Posting is also in decline on many sites leaving none but the most religious and some curious onlookers who read for entertainment. That is a far cry from the days when you went to one of those places and left a negative comment on metals that was greeted with howls of derision by the ruling pack. Now those same comments actually get a little airplay and support from others who question the metals thesis. Sadly, each time gold starts rising, the crazy camp again overwhelms the blogs. So they are still out there…..just waiting.
Birdman,
You sound like you are ready to unload some serious capital in the PM’s..I wish I had some more dry powder than I have…..rats!
You are correct, Marc. Powder is dry. I am not a “back up the truck” type though. I am merely waiting for that sweet spot that I feel sure is coming. What I want is what we all want and I have the patience to just wait until it happens. To buy low and catch a wave up.
Unfortunately I put an bid just around this price for PHS.U (PSLV in NYMEX), it has been there since Feb. It went within 10 cents several times and silver simply reverses right above it. I feel the price is nearing the low if it is not on it.
PM capitulation phase compromised by Ukraine crisis… we live in very uncertain times.
Now that is an interesting point!
Recently Goldman Sacks and JPMorgan expectations seem to be playing out.
Ive been reading conflicting reports of Chinese buying as well.
Maybe a change happens with a change in the Indian government.
And today the “Backstop Boyz” are holding the fort for silver, as they did yesterday for gold. I don’t think silver took out the late-December low, either. According to my chart, with data from NetDania, silver put in an $18. 695 spike low sometime in the 4-hour window between 6am and 10am on the morning of 12-31. That’s the “… line in the sand” here. If there’s some “official” low price that negates this data, I stand corrected.
I hope Gary does not take a vacation before gold and silver bottom and he rings the buying bell!
I think it was Gary who talked about capitulation overtaking the PM markets. Capitulation comes in many forms, and one of them is when people simply make up their mind that they cannot trade their way to a billion bucks with gold and silver futures and decide to hold some reasonable amount of metal as insurance for the long run, and forget about it.
Its also not written anywhere that these markets have to make big moves up or down for the benefit of day traders. They can just move sideways– again churning up traders and forcing them to move on to some other market. Not necessarily a bad thing in my mind.
I do find it interesting, though, that GDXJ is still up over 25% (if I have my math correct) for the year. Someone seems to recognize value when they see it….
If this is indeed Dr. Ryan Jordan…a big hearty thank you for your input! If not – thanks anyways!….:)
Hey Mark- Yes, its me. I always enjoy the commentary, even as I am not a trader. Hope all is well with you–
cool headed , logical thinking…………….
Probably
This is what we ALL should be focused on, another liquidity crisis out of the centre of which the precious metal bulls all love to constantly pump as the buyer of all buyers.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-30/chinese-currency-collapses-18-month-lows-nears-pboc-limits
You can’t have it both ways, China being the buyer of everything across the commodity complex suggesting every dip is to be bought, well if they are contracting buying the dip could be a very dangerous mistake.
Have a look at the data out of the US today at zerohedge.com is another wave of Deflation about to take place?
I believe the inflation in the market and housing will flow into other areas
Personal income went up 25% from .04 to .05
That was the good news
Consumer spending went up 80%. From .5 to .9
So coupled with negative GDP , car inventories rising to create fake sales. Good and fuel costs skyrocketing ( are any experts advising investment in Energy because costs are dropping? ). So inflation is going up, gold still being scooped up, IMF still pushing for action. China manipulating money supply to keep multiplier going and keep Chinese assets cheap for trade and drive sales and exports
If successful it sounds like China still wins and we look worse by he week.
If you want to feel great about things just listen to Steve Leisman
And who would have bet Leisman would have been THE guy to follow for 180% gains off the Q1 2009 S&P lows….he makes all the gold gurus look like idiots as gold from Q1/09 has gained 50% Silver 57% and the HUI is Down…-7%
LOL!!…..manipulation in reverse!
That’s a silly way to look at it. Silver was a much better play in Q1 ’09. It went up 400% in just over two years. I had many juniors that did double to triple that. The time to buy stocks was in the summer of 2011 —using the gains from the metals and miners.
Liesman is never THE guy to follow.
Oh I’m well aware of what unfolded Matthew as I held a $500gs position in a silver bullion etf X2….great % gains!
How many and lets not pick on james sold their silver bullion and miners remember the majority are still long and wrong and in todays price action my point is they are up only 57% vs S&P 180%….because we know goldbugs never, ever sell, lol
If we’re going to take that approach, it makes more sense to compare the performance of each sector since the REAL top (value/purchasing power) in stocks in 2000. Gold/silver are STILL up 5x (400%) since then while the Dow is up about 1.4x (40%) and the S&P is up about 1.2x (20%).
Those who left stocks for gold and simply stayed long (because we know goldbugs never sell) have done FAR better than those who stuck by Liesman and the rest of the paper-pushers.
What most people do really proves nothing anyway. No matter what sector we look at, MOST are wrong at every top and every bottom. This fact has nothing to do with goldbugs.
Oh I’d say gold brings out the emotional side of investing more so than any other investment…investors defend their stance like religion. Can you name any other sector that put in a 12 year bull run yet was hated by the likes of Liesmen and co….no sector is brings out the emotion on both sides, bulls and bears like gold and silver.
I’m not as stupid as I sound and since I was part of the run from 2002 I’m well aware of what % gains above other sectors gold produced, my comparison was off the S&P 666 lows….following the likes of Liesmen since then has been the better trade than that of Sinclair, Sprott etc and that says a lot!
The sheeple create the top and bottoms of everything traded from gold to dotcom to real estate and always will.
Yes, they certainly do “Original”!
I have to reiterate: Never sell our physical. If I start to sell stocks above the $2500 threshold I will announce it first. ($2500 in one particular company.)
Of course gold brings out more emotion. The conditions that lead to a bull market in gold are negative and political.
CNBC is an arm of the Wall Street paper-pushers, of course Liesman is going to talk down hard assets and any bull market that is not near its end.
He’ll be pumping gold and trashing stocks when gold makes its final top and the Dow makes its final bottom.
Goldman,
You are exactly right – Steve Leisman…BTW, the economy is great…I can buy a new car for no down and pay no interest for seven years…sounds like the US DOLLAR is really hard to come by – and very dear to the borrower – yeah, right!
Leishman doesn’t comment on Gold. He is just a CnBc cheerleader for the stock market. Good news is he expects 3-4% GDP If not. It’s the weathers fault
If Leisman or any boob only calls for gains he should be right 50% of the time
Here is another view of the deflation topic, Goldman. The perspective is wide because the view is based on 30 and 60 year interest rate trends. Anyway, it is based on Kress cycles and the suggestion is that the next wave, possibly beginning this year, will be strongly inflationary.
The Death of Deflation – Cliff Droke – Financial Sense
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/clif-droke/death-deflation
I agree with the idea of mass inflation. We have deflated the dollar and costs of goods, many of which are not included properly in CPI such as education costs, energy and food have skyrocket in some cases and by my estimations food and energy will go up big over the next 12 months. It will only affect everyone. If we have inflation and the dollar deflating then I assume PM’s go up and a market fall
I see inflation coming too. Just part of the cycle. More to the point it is being demanded by Central Banks and the Fed so it is a certainty we get it. How it arrives is a point I have discussed here before. Just my own theory of course but my strongest belief is that it will be stealthy and happen with rates continuing to hold to extreme lows.
JJ
I don’t question that gold and silver have issues at the moment. As the markets have been falsely inflated with QE 123, gold and silver have been pounded.
What should happen given the data being presented and what is happening do not align under expected norms. I have been a market bull through the very early part of this year. But you can only shoot drugs into the arm of the market for so long before you kill it.
Either the banks try one last high for the markets with an attempt to crush PM’s or the game is over for them soon.
Cnbc flunkies only see it one way. Up
UNLESS YOU ARE LISTENING TO RICK SANTELLI!!!!
Best wishes
Banks and gold assuming your point is manipulation falls on deaf ears, sorry.
No true trend can be manipulated, short term of course, but using silver as an example looking back since the 2011 highs inflation has been nowhere to be found, as I said:
james, the #1 driver for silver is inflation, period!
When silver rose…well took off….mid 2010 to its 2011 highs the CRB index in the same timeframe rose from 247 to 370-high….Oil rose from $70 to $114-high the US$ fell from 83 to 72-low and Copper rose from $2.47 to $4.65-high
If gold and silver could be truly manipulated they would still be $250 and $4….I only listen to CNBC on FOMC day……but then again following Liesman has been the trade these past 5 years, not KWNuts
Hmmm… your really think miners can produce the metals on 5 times loss for each once it dig out of the ground? If you have to pay $1200 to get it out of ground and sell only at $250, are you going to shut down the mine or raise money to keep producing, especially when refinancing become impossible now? World need 4000 tons of gold a year, where do it come from?
No of course they can’t so close the doors, go bankrupt like every other company with no margin of return….you think just because it costs $1250 to produce an oz that will be the floor, and more importantly it takes a long time for the supply (shortage from mines closing) vs demand to kick in that’s not V reaction.
Well unless US government wants to off load the entire reserve. There is no company with production cost even close to $250. The best one is 900. You are talking about THE entire industry shut down not a few companies. Metal has to come from somewhere, either from underground or above ground.
For silver it is more acute. World consumes 900 million onces of silver a year. There is less than one year of above ground supply exists. If even a fraction of silver mines shut down, other industry has to shut down a lot factories as well. I am not sure why factories want to shut down instead of bidding up the prices. The supply and demand is physical at least for silver.
Right now, government uses paper contracts to control price. But paper contract is double edged sword. It has the effect of burning through all the physical and come to one day only paper is left. This process is toxic if it is manipulated since the mechanism to detect the shortage and price discovery is lost. When there comes a day, no physical is left and contract cannot be delivered, there will be a shock. Industry has to sutdown. This is exactly a situation future market is trying to avoid. Metals is a world market. Obama may decides to shut down all US gold/silver consumers, the world has to continue.
Sorry Lawrence I have no idea where $250 came from as I was using $1250 as a general example.
First Majestic Silver is run by one of the smartest, aggressive CEO’s in the business as he stockpiled a % of silver production and also bought Sprott’s physical silver fund, that’s 1 hell of a gamble because if silver does infact head to $18….$16…$15…$10 the FR will get punished as these miners are to be making their shareholders money which of course at $26 silver he’s a star!…..at what point to these companies start to take a hard look at hedging their costs/production better to sell forward today at $19 than selling at $12, no?
I just wanted to say the price cannot go too much under their commodity value. At the worst case, it is a commodity.
The central idea is to push the price of metals to the lowest possible value and yet not making miners disappear.
“By the end of May or the first week of April”
Which direction does the calendar go?
that would give him a 11 month leeway………..
Funny Jerry!
I could be wrong, but I don’t think that is meant to be funny!
THE COINLAND REPORT…..is accurate and precise in every area……….
We try Jerry’s daughter, we really try!
but, it was suppose to be funny…..
Gary – I too am waiting for the bull market in precious metals to begin and look for a blow off top in the DOW and SP500 but here is some data that may give us a better idea as to timing.
I looked at the 4 major stock market tops over the past 120 years – Oct. 1929, Dec. 1965, Jan. 2000 and Sept. 2007 and in every case the CAD line topped months to a couple of years earlier and here is the most interesting part, Martin Armstrong’s ECM dates were 1929.76, 1964.15, 1998.55 and 2007.15.
Next MA ECM date is 2015.75 and we know that the NYSE CAD line made all-time highs this past week, so the conclusion is that we will not see the final top in the stock indexes till at least the fall of 2015.
Regards,
did you notice the gold/silver ratio? Highest it has been in over three years! Trading your gold for silver now is a good move! For long term holders the lower the price the better! Back up the truck time!!!
When the gold/silver ratio closes at 66.6 on the day watch out.
🙂
One thing is certain in my mind and that is if Yellen can keep shimming down the taper to eventually o and the markets don’t go into a kamikaze nosedive then The Fed has definitely pulled a rabbit out of their hat. The big party will be on, but I don’t believe for a minute they will be successful.
Gary always sounds depressed.
Either depressed or perplexed, one or the other, well maybe both.
I dont know why…he is on the sidelines
Dick Tracy – If I had to equate it to a horse race – the FED is only at the hald in a very long race. They have a lot more taper to go and then even after that there is still a lot of running to do.
I’m sure youve heard of the expression when a runner hits the wall?
The FED could hit that wall at any time.
They have miles to go before they sleep
There have been other inverted triangles that failed miserably, in the 1920’s two of America’s richest men The Van Sweringens had built an empire so big that they controlled 11% of all US railroads, at their peak they had personal wealth of over $100 million dollars, they had one hundred thousand employees and business assets of between $2 billion and $3 billion dollars. Very few people have ever heard of them and during the great Depression they lost it all as one loan after the other was called in. Today Oris and Mantis are buried together with one stone over their graves that reads ” Brothers”. Most Americans have never heard their names they died in obscurity.
Actually miles to go before they hit 26.2! (I used to run marathons!)
Well, this is interesting. The NFP number – undoubtedly cooked to a fare-thee-well – came in waaaaaaaaaay above expectations and there’s been only a tepid reaction by the metals. A few months ago, an NFP number such as this would have smashed gold by $50 in a heartbeat. I think the tone and tenor have definitely changed.
I will agree with that, MAD.
After gold’s big move up on Friday, I would imagine that Gary is going to find it necessary to perform yet another flip-flop and jump back on to the pro-gold band wagon. As for his expectation that the stock market is poised to perform an explosive parabolic move to the finish line, sorry, but that scenario is looking less and less likely to happen. Margin debt is in the beginning stages of contracting, momentum tech and biotech stocks are crumbling, We are seeing multiple warning signs that something ugly is about to happen to the stock market..
No doubt, Gary will quick to jump onto the bear’s bandwagon AFTER it is apparent that the market has begun to fall apart. The fact is, Gary doesn’t have a clue about gold or any other markets for that matter, but has learned the art of double speak very well. He can always point backward and say that he “predicated” any outcome that occurs because like most so called analysts, he hedges his calls with liberal use of words like “maybe”, “might” and “could”.
Okay, but it is still important to me personally to listen to everyone.
I actually like listening to Gar’s predictions, but only because is so consistently wrong ! Knowing that, and with a confidence that he will continue to be wrong, is tremendously valuable to trader such as myself. This guy gets whipsawed almost on a daily basis. I almost feel sorry for him .
Well said eagleeye! I know a guy at another forum that is very skilled. I mentioned Gary Savage capitulation plan and his only comment was “I am not seeing that, I only see gold has traded sideways for the last 29 weeks”.
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/4460/setup-big-trade?page=266#comments
argentus maximus is very intelligent, humble, staying low key. Read his post “I’m long!”
Gary, you sound depressed! You should be thrilled though because these declines will no doubt become the seeds of hope for this beaten market. Opportunity knocks when things look the most dismal. I am over the top. It is shaping up nicely in my mind.