Gary Savage – Thu 8 May, 2014

Interesting discussion with Gary

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Cory FleckGary SavageAl Korelin

  1. On May 8, 2014 at 9:59 am,
    Joseph says:

    Gary, appreciate your analysis… do you have any thought’s on the Dow/Gold Ratio.

    • On May 8, 2014 at 10:11 am,
      irishtony says:

      Joseph…I know what I think of the G/S ratio…..67+….Rubbish.

      • On May 8, 2014 at 10:45 am,
        Birdman says:

        It has been much higher Tony. And if JPM really has 7000 tonnes of the stuff then in theory they could lever prices back to the stone age should silver start getting out of hand by periodically dumping product on the market. Not that they would. I think their hoard is meant for the long term and for profit. Plus it conveniently collateralizes a portion of the business in the interim. A win-win.

        • On May 8, 2014 at 11:04 am,
          irishtony says:

          BIRD….I have to agree re JP holding for the long term , to sell it into the market in the near future , at these depressed prices would not be a very astute move …IMO

          • On May 8, 2014 at 11:41 am,
            Birdman says:

            Silver might be the new gold. Especially if we find out one day the Chinese have a lot more gold than we all believed they had. Not that we should be too surprises to see silver monetized again in the future. It has happened countless times throughout history already. Just seems probable it will happen again. Maybe even in our lifetimes 😉

          • On May 8, 2014 at 5:48 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Depending on their cost, Mr. Irish!

      • On May 8, 2014 at 5:47 pm,
        Big Al says:

        I kind of feel the same way, but then again I am not a technician. Then again Doc puts credence into it and I got all the time in the world for what he says.

    • On May 8, 2014 at 12:01 pm,
      Birdman says:

      Yes, I appreciate it too. Seems that a stock market correction is not coming quite yet. Weird, and I felt so sure. Got screwed on that call. Tuesday looked like one was coming out of the blocks hot. But Wednesday ended that decline in its tracks. The Russell is still falling though. Broke another technical line to the downside and the pattern of lower-lows and lower highs remains intact. ……we shall see.

      • On May 8, 2014 at 12:20 pm,
        Birdman says:

        In the meantime I do not yet consider myself altogether wrong in my call. Stocks look like they will finish the day in the red for the second time this week. Even Monday itself was no big winner. Tomorrow could still tell the story. The Dow is still bumping its brainpan on 16500 without making material headway except intraday. On the close though we are still going nowhere except that the tension is growing over time….tick….tick….tick

        • On May 8, 2014 at 5:52 pm,
          Big Al says:

          S and P and Nasdaq sure did fall and the DJIA was no big winner today!

      • On May 8, 2014 at 5:49 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Yeh Bird, but common sense says that it should. (Correct that is!)

  2. On May 8, 2014 at 10:16 am,
    glenfidish says:

    Gary, what are your thoughts on gaps? More specifically for gold miners. Do you see gaps in miners across the boards? And can this be a catalyst to cause gold/xau/hui to correct into your may/june low forecast.

    • On May 8, 2014 at 10:25 am,
      original jj says:

      Its very rare gaps don’t get filled….if not 1/2 the gap… the entire gap

      Put up your fav chart-daily- and you’ll see

      If a major event like a mine closure or a major deposit is announced those gaps can be left behind as the structure of the company has changed, possibly forever

      • On May 8, 2014 at 10:48 am,
        Birdman says:

        How rare jj? I mean are there gap-fill numbers on it that give such high probabilities?

        • On May 8, 2014 at 11:04 am,
          original jj says:

          There is a saying among chartists “mind the gaps” its used to add to positions both short and longs as the market fills the gap the trend in play “usually” continues after dealing with the gap….again not a perfect science but just another tool used by those who follow the charts….fwiw

          • On May 8, 2014 at 11:45 am,
            Birdman says:

            OK. Thanks. I just was wondering if anyone had researched the topic seriously and come to a definitive conclusion before saying something along the lines of “Gaps get filled 93% of the time on average” or a similar helpful comment like that.

  3. On May 8, 2014 at 10:35 am,
    glenfidish says:

    Original, thx for your insight. Ive always felt the same way but wanted some of you guys in here to put the your own thoughts. Good to see we think alike. Are you seeing many gaps still left behind on miners as I do? Have a good day.

    • On May 8, 2014 at 10:46 am,
      original jj says:

      glenfidish, I just made this HUI index Gap chart, I see only one not filled, yet…at 212$HUI&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p42907633509&a=350300162&listNum=1

      • On May 8, 2014 at 9:16 pm,
        glenfidish says:

        Original I see a gap at 190.21 in HUI.. I also see yours which I feel 99.99% it will get filled. Does that put gold at 1180/1220/1240/1260? is a great question. The bigger question is not if 212 gets filled but if 190.21 gets filled? If so this may be the last and corrective fifth leg of garys intermediate bottom that he has been talking about. A may/june bottom filling gaps and satisfying appetite. Im ready to unload a good amount of cash the family had had on the sidelines for a over a month now. These prices are getting very attractive.

        • On May 9, 2014 at 5:24 am,
          original jj says:

          Sorry I don’t see an unfilled Gap in the 190 area…..if the HUI retests that area Gold was $1220-$1180…..I would not be surprized to see both lower than Dec lows.

          As for loading up, well we know these past 2+ years there has been a few so called THE bottoms in and we can look back to see they were only short coverings….bottom fish with a 1/3 of your capital and add as the market/momentum heads higher confirming your position is correct………….Good Luck!


  4. On May 8, 2014 at 10:51 am,
    pg says:

    Gary – 1929, 1965, 2000 and 2008 tops all occurred in the same manner as I have pointed out – CAD line DOW and ECM are all correlated and with before each of those bear bear markets bottomed, there was a bull market in mining stocks that started.

    History shows that we are nowhere near to a top in the stock markets as the NYSE CAD line is still making all-time new highs and next ECM date is not till 2015.75, betting against this could be costly……imo

    • On May 8, 2014 at 11:06 am,
      original jj says:

      Your sounding like a true student of Marty Armstrong….well done PG

  5. On May 8, 2014 at 11:15 am,
    pg says:

    OJ – not just Armstrong but taking all the information available to us and trying to make sense of financial markets as events repeat and if you have the knowledge and the timing is correct, it should be very profitable.

  6. On May 8, 2014 at 11:26 am,
    Marc, San Diego says:

    I wouldnt completely bet on Martin Armstrong…anything can happen at anytime….I have told you guys – ALL OF YOU “GUYS”..that you could go to bed on a Sunday nite..and the financial rules of the global macro-economic marketplace are completely RESET – closing the door on any ‘hard asset” purchases at these prices for generations..paranoid..heck no…..realistic…..we live in VERY, VERY different times..times that only come along once every multiple of generations and the transfer of wealth can be your undoing or your “savior’ as far as financial health…which as you know, cant hold a candle to spirtual health and well-being.

    • On May 8, 2014 at 3:16 pm,
      deborah lee says:

      LOVE YOUR COMMENT. These are the precarious times in which we live. I SAY PROTECT WHAT YOU CAN….

      • On May 8, 2014 at 5:58 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Not just wealth, Deborah. But I would bet that you know that!

    • On May 8, 2014 at 5:57 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Could not possibly agree more on the “spiritual health and well-being” comment, Marc!

    • On May 9, 2014 at 3:13 pm,
      Gator says:

      Hey Mark,….reset is coming..just depends on how long this corrupt administration can keep the shell game going….patience is king….

      • On May 9, 2014 at 4:46 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Gator, I am starting to think that the reset may happen sooner rather than later.

  7. On May 8, 2014 at 11:27 am,
    Marc, San Diego says:

    ……and as my Grandfather use to say ” being poor aint a SIN….it is just damn INCONVENIENT!”

    • On May 8, 2014 at 12:22 pm,
      Birdman says:

      Telling me. Been there once. Pain in the arse.

      • On May 8, 2014 at 5:59 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Big time “pain the the arse”!

  8. On May 8, 2014 at 11:31 am,
    pg says:

    Marc – nowhere has any implied or stated that anyone is betting on Armstrong – read comments again. 🙂

  9. On May 8, 2014 at 11:34 am,
    Marc, San Diego says:

    I understand….just a “figure” of speech…thks!!

  10. On May 8, 2014 at 11:34 am,
    Marc, San Diego says:

    :)…back at ya…my friend!

  11. On May 8, 2014 at 11:39 am,
    pg says:

    No problem, I believe we are all here for the same reason – to share knowledge.

    • On May 8, 2014 at 11:57 am,
      Birdman says:

      I appreciated that Armstrong comment this past week where he mentioned the ATM closures in some cities in Ukraine. Just like that …POOF!!….there was no cash and nobody could get any more either. Suddenly it dawned on people that Holy Shit you were in deep waters if the bank machines stopped spitting out those nice crisp bills on demand. The risks of an electronic world. Of course, most people don’t even keep cash at home anymore. Too few people even have free cash to start with. I am just stunned at how broke so many people are who I once thought were wealthy. Bloody fiction of credit. They all have assets that live or die at the whims of the economy (like houses and stocks) but don’t bother setting aside even a few scraps of cash in case of trouble. And when you go online and read the popular investing comments of the day it is always the same. Get your money working! Cash is dead! The implication is that only morons keep liquid accounts or physical paper on hand which earns absolutely nothing but hot air as profits. Yeah….tell that to the Ukes who suddenly woke up one morning and the ATM machines were all in darkness.

    • On May 8, 2014 at 6:00 pm,
      Big Al says:

      And that pg is a “big thank God for that!”

  12. On May 8, 2014 at 12:17 pm,
    original jj says:

    Louise Yamada is a true chart expert and she is the only reason I visit KWNuts to view her updates…..worth a look along side her opinion of what she see’s,_Silver,_Copper_%26_Palladium_Charts.html

    • On May 8, 2014 at 3:50 pm,
      Eric says:

      the problem is, she is basically a trend follower (and we know they eventually come to an end). I can remember during the financial crisis, with the S&P 500 in the 600s, she projected it going to 450

  13. On May 8, 2014 at 1:05 pm,
    Hal says:

    Yamada–was not supportive of gold on its way up and then was not supportive on the way down.

    I really like the folks that use TA and fundamentals together when analyzing things.