Jordan Roy-Byrne discusses the main factors he is considering in the gold market

June 4, 2014

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    Jun 04, 2014 04:36 AM

    Jordan, $1200 is THE key neckline area supporting the whole move above $1000….a “Weekly Close” below $1200 is very, very bearish$GOLD&p=M&yr=15&mn=0&dy=0&id=p34241481538&a=351830357&listNum=1

      Jun 04, 2014 04:34 AM

      Two days from now, Original!

        Jun 04, 2014 04:51 AM

        No Al not suggesting this week, the weekly chart would need a CLOSE below $1200 to become very bearish, having said that as you love to say, yes a close this Fri below $1200 instead of a hard dip to $1180 and reversing (closing above $1200) would be very negative as the two last dips to $1180 did NOT produce a CLOSE below $1200….

    Jun 04, 2014 04:45 AM

    Would be interesting to know Jordon, have your suggested short positions in gold, silver and the miners since 2011 and with your current outlook are you short?

    Or are you only a Buy side analyst?

      Jun 05, 2014 05:14 PM

      By your lack of response Jordon I will assume your a buy side only analyst, just what we need another opinion that doesn’t back up its opinion making money from the short side.

        Jun 06, 2014 06:51 PM

        JJ, sorry for the late reply. We run a model portfolio for subscribers and we’ve been strongly hedged over the past few months. We’ve also taken a lot of our profits from Dec/Jan and we sold anything that reached a 20% loss. In May we started a $100K real money portfolio for subscribers and we have a few tiny long positions and we’ve hedged them with JDST. Our objective is to make money from the long side. When we are bearish, we take profits & hedge as much as we can. Other than Brent Cook we are the only newsletter writer who runs a real money portfolio. We are looking forward to doing some big buying in the coming weeks! Proof of my bearish opinion going back a few months can be listened to in this interview:

    Jun 04, 2014 04:00 AM

    There is so much financial iniquity(lawlessness)in the commodities markets, especially Au/Ag and so much liquidity and God forbid a real exogenous event at many doorsteps, anything other than the metal or its safer surrogates ie.(CEF, SProtts) is a real crapshoot as long as the lawlessness prevails. I like Jim Sinclairs analogy, those 6-8 entities would rip the face off their mother for that extra buck. Do I still own equities, YES , in order of
    4 magnitude CEF , PVG, SPPP, PAAS, AG SGSVF

      Jun 04, 2014 04:32 AM

      I can’t disagree with you, Martin.

    Jun 04, 2014 04:09 AM

    Well, I will agree with Jordan that silver is leading gold right now. That is something to watch. Also the gold/silver ratio. Far too many people are waiting for what they think is going to be an historical gold bottom though. That is a setup for disappointment. The dollars growing strength is going to limit upside. That is a major headwind. To me this is obvious as hell….if the Euro keeps falling along its new trend line down we will not get a big upthrust in precious metals as soon as most here would like. Gold will keep frustrating would be hopeful buyers.

      Jun 04, 2014 04:30 AM

      Gotta tell you Bird,

      I am really concerned about over all macro issues right now.

      Quite frankly, I am not particularly comfortable.

      I mean stop and think about it: conventional markets are pretty stagnant in spite of the drum beating; the precious metals markets are also stagnating; The EU situation is tenuous to say the least; and, the overall situation in the U.S. as far as economic reality is concerned is more than tenuous.

      I am actually more than just a little concerned. As Rick and I discussed off mike with Cory yesterday, We could wake up some morning and the financial system could be in absolute chaos. Stop and think about it man, true fundamentals suggest that happening.

        Jun 04, 2014 04:43 PM

        Al, we have been in a continuous crisis mode for about 6 years already. Or make that even longer if we go back to the housing bubble bursting. In all that time almost none of the worst case scenarios have proved themselves or materialized. Everyone has already forgotten the European debt crisis as just one example and it is still fairly recent. Maybe I am just getting scarred over and toughened up to all the fears and so I look at all the markets with as much common sense as I can muster these days. Gold does not look like a great bet to me today although very recently it was suggesting a break out had arrived. As Rick mentioned yesterday we should be watching the divergence between stocks and bonds. You might be really interested in hearing a fascinating interview over at Jays site where he has a guy on talking about the relationships between gold, the S&P, Euro stocks, the dollar/euro pair etcetera. He sees a big flip coming soon and presents an interesting case. Check the first 15 minutes of the show linked below:

        Jay Taylor – Hard Times — June 3rd 2014

    […] Interview here: […]

    Jun 04, 2014 04:38 PM

    Depression levels of employment/unemployment, 20% of US citizens surviving on food stamps, $23T in loans given to the banks at near 0%, US total debt:GDP was 104% over a year ago, $700T in notional outstanding derivatives,$130T in US unfunded liabilities,US reserve currency status and privileges being attacked as it has led to decades of corruption benefiting the US and her masters,the official US growth rates of 0.1% ,the Fed and ‘too big to fail banks’ have carved up America,loaning themselves exponential amounts of US dollars as the country crumbles…..Iraq,Libya,Cyprus,Ukraine,Syria,Afghanistan….Everything is beautiful.I mean what could possibly go wrong?

      Jun 04, 2014 04:55 PM

      How about “everything” Matt!

      Jun 04, 2014 04:55 PM

      Yeah, we had lists back when I was a kid too. There is ALWAYS something brewing that could be the end of the world or the end of life as we know it. Make a list of some the fatal diseases and conditions known to man then string those together for comparison.

      Here, let me do it for you…

      Cholera, Smallpox, Tuberculosis, Yelllow Fever, Aids, Malaria, Flesh eating disease, Bird flu, Cancer, Ebola, Influenza, Diarrhea, Black plague, Obesity, Meningitis, Diabetes, Hang nails and paper cuts.

      So how much time do you spend worrying over that list? Probably not a lot. It’s human nature to think positive. Most of us don’t fret over our own mortality day to day unless we are fatally ill. So why should we worry about the economy continuously especially when most of the fears, while theoretically possible, are not actually going to be real for most of us anyway?

      Look, depressions don’t usually kill people. Not directly anyway. Neither do hyperinflations. They just make us miserable. Twice in my life I have lived under hyperinflation conditions. It’s a pain in the ass and it makes you feel poor but it is not really life threatening and it is not the end of the world.

      Life throws crap at us every day that we don’t want and don’t expect. You have got to be stoic and remain positive despite the situation especially when there is nothing that can be done about it anyway. God invented laughing for a good reason.

        Jun 05, 2014 05:19 PM

        Yes He did Bird. I just get down sometimes.