Wednesday Morning Comments from Gary
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There is some question here as to the figure of Fed ownership of stocks should be attributed to Jim Sinclair or to someone else. If Mr. Sinclair, in fact, it would appear that this is his source.
Chips, any chance you play cards?
Good luck with your bet.
I play a little “Hold ’em”, but nothing crazy. The name “Chips” comes from my obsession of making homemade potato chips. My friends thought it was an appropriate nick name. Getting my Food Safety Mgmt Cert, trademark names and commercial kitchen space all lined up. Also making authentic Sicilian-style “red sauce” with a business partner, but that’s a side bet, hehe. I guess trading for me is a gamble, but in the days ahead I plan to bet on myself!
Always a wise investment imo, but ive found a little gambling can put some interest in life, best of luck.
I agree, bb! Thank you.
In all sincerity I wish you the best in your new venture!
Thanks, Big Al, much appreciated!
Hi Chips,
I agree with bb when he says good luck.
Hi Al, thanks yeah will need lots of luck betting against The Fed although looking at it right now S&P only up 6 pts as I write. Watching Yellen spew her FedSpeak is difficult today, but I’ll hold out my trade for a couple days and look for some kind of reversion to the mean (as Gary might say).
All the mainstream headlines of “look for hawkish fed” is just a set up for a rally that will happen today as soon as they come out ultra-dovish.
Elliott Wave theory is nonsense. It doesn’t matter how smart you think you are, when you’re working off nonsense theory you’ll get wrong analysis and wrong predictions. Garbage in equals garbage out.
There’s no cure for these fools. The FED being a case in point.
I bet that with gold above $1400 USD, Avi will still insist that his theory is somehow correct, even though he clearly predicts gold dropping to $900 USD. See:
https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/images/charts/full-pf35LPBBJktvtqIr7YUjV.jpg
Mikhael,
Gotta say, I believe you are correct..fundamentals will always win out..re-gardless of anything. And I mean anything…..Mr. Market will have the final say: That means that GOLD is in a mega-bull uptrend..that is the future.
Elliott wave makes sense……….but…..not when MANIPULATED……..the Elliott wave, goes way back before these times, and as a tool today……I agree with you,,,,forget it.
Time will tell Mikhael.
$29 TRILLION NOT JUST THE FED BUT A BUNCH OF CENTRAL BANKS ACTING TOGETHER.
The bubble is not so much in the stock market as it is in the BOND market.
Bond interest rate should equal inflation plus a couple of percent.
The stock market is not overvalued, but the dollar is. Think Weimar Republic, guys.
Think Brasil in the 80s, thank Zimbabwe in the 90s. This time it is in slow motion because of the sheer volume of US dollars in existence.
CFS,
Boy you absolutely nailed it!! I laugh because I hear all this analysis on the internet and such: PEOPLE – DONT ATTEMPT TO COMPLICATE THE UNCOMPLICATED – OH YEAH, THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM IS SOOOOOO COMPLEX AND DEEP, BLAH, BLAH, BLAH!! READ WHAT CFS JUST SAID ABOVE AND ACT ACCORDINGLY – THAT IS THE FUTURE – UGLY? SURE – BUT WE HAVE NO ONE TO BLAME BUT OURSELVES…:)
I have to admit that I kind of feel the same way.
If we get a major crash, and I think that we will, it is going to be very, very bad!
$29 trillion = the fed owning it all. Socialism achieved?
Well, Rothchild doesn’t care who makes the laws.
If everything is good for them should be good for everyone else, right?
Even agreeing with Gary that money should move into commodities, eventualy even the fed should see the potential for profit in the sector, I still feel it wise to hold until direction is clear. This grinding range trading could go for awhile yet.
For anyone interested Jay Taylor has an excellent interview with David Jensen today, enery,agiculture,PMs, Iraq, and the US military befuddled. about 20 minutes.
Thanks bb, Jay does good stuff.
was it sinclair or Bill Holter….. best to get yr facts correct re the 29 trillion..
sally……I think you are correct………Sinclair , usually post other’s comments and articles.,,,these article come from zerohedge, kwn,,etc.
but,,,,I think Sinclair is a staple site,,just like this one………
Thanks Jerry!,
The Owl
it was Holter Al… you better correct yr statement
Thanks Sally!
Re: the $29Trn figure everyone mentions, I believe the original Zerohedge article was mentioning that according to a study, central banks and other investment vehicles owned $29trn of INVESTMENTS.
IMHO, this implies that this figure includes every type of asset class, from Tresuries/Gvt bonds to PM to stocks. Not only stocks. And I would also suspect this figure includes holdings from SWF – sovereign wealth funds.
It is a hell of a big number though. Global equity markets were worth a total of 55 trillion at the end of 2012. That includes all stock markets in all countries. So the suggestion that CB’s and the 400 public institutions around the globe owning half of all the assets pretty much means those markets cannot crash anymore. How could they with that much public ownership? That is the safety net is it not? The story is incredible if it is true. Boggles the mind. But is it manipulation? We really need to reformulate everything we believe and understand about stocks and markets in the light of such information. The suggestion is obviously that if governments can buy up half of all equities they can also buy up most of the debt issues too if they chose. They are already on their way to doing that if Fed purchases and Japanese buying of their own bonds are any indication. The world just changed. The litmus test that something is wrong would be gold rising in all currencies. So how can gold do that if so much money is supporting stock markets? Commodities simply cannot get traction under these circumstances. Maybe this is our WOW moment when we all suddenly realize just how deep the rabbit hole goes.
Thanks Bird,
Yeq, it seems that is a REALLY deep hole!
Suggesting the kenysians could be right Bird?
This just blows my mind bb. What if it is true? Our whole idea of what assets valuations mean would be turned on its head. It is a utopian fantasy to think we can live in a world where stocks never crash anymore though….that they can only go up because the support at the public level is absolute. What does money even mean in that world? The implications stagger the imagination.
Sure does Bird, I see the markets going on and on, only thing could be the payoff might be in devalued American currency, maybe timing becomes even more important, when to change asset allocation. A balancing act maybe.
I see physical gold as the safest thing for me, I havnt the health or youth to farm or I would. Physical silver I see as calculated gamble. Honust, productive land should = wealth if a person is in the position to obtain and maintain it.
The markets? If I wasn’t using money I won from the market I wouldn’t be in it to be honust. Hey, “Ive got chips I havnt spent yet”. As the saying goes, others might say “one day chicken, next day feathers”
Don’t think I like the idea of conventional markets right now tho, I of course could be wrong but what can I say? I like gold stocks.
Actually truth is, I find I really don’t have the time to research much of anything else.
I understand the advantage of a team I think.
BB, my brain is totally rattled with this news of 29 trillion in stock markets invested by all the worlds central banks. I just don’t know what to make of it. It must be a fiction. If it is a fact we should all be picking stocks and shunning gold altogether. I just realized if this is true I don’t know anything about anything anymore. Might just as well join the parade since it is guaranteed to never lose. But it must be a fantasy. A world with no hunger. A world with no sickness. A world where we don’t die or get old and a world where stock markets levitate until the end of time. So maybe the printing press really is the most marvelous invention of all time.
Bird, for me, I think the time to get into the market was when they told us about qe 1 and the plung protection team.
Don’t let it rattle you, we have been living in this environment for awhile now.
There still has got to be logic in undervalued assets and should the market fall its got a long drop no?
I really don’t know,just seems risky to me.
As I said, maybe it goes up forever, but the payoff could be worthless dollars, the Russians openly state now they intend to drop the dollar.
Got to have an effect, the world grows tired of the americans and Rothchilds and have figured it out, the power is the dollar, kill it, you kill the threat.
Dollars gotta drop eventually. and the rest of the world still likes gold, so…….
And today China and England will begin currency swaps of Yuan and Sterling to bypass the dollar. Just saw it on the news.
I’d say not so much that the Keynesians are right, as that there are no longer markets. It’s a centrally controlled economy. As history has shown, it will mis-allocate resources, provide fertile ground for corruption, concentrate wealth in few hands, and impoverish the majority.
It’s not very functional, but it could last for a long time, and where the exit is for those who don’t want to participate isn’t so clear. I still believe PMs are one good iron to have in the fire, though.
All currencies are a fiction of our imaginations now. wow…..so bizarre.
Some day the “man behind the curtain” will be revealed. Holes spill over when overfilled unless you are the one digging the hole as you fill it up.
Putin Advisor Proposes “Anti-Dollar Alliance” To Halt US Aggression Abroad
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/18/2014 – 10:41 Putin’s economic aide and the mastermind behind the Eurasian Economic Union, argues that Washington is trying to provoke a Russian military intervention in Ukraine, using the junta in Kiev as bait. If fulfilled, the plan will give Washington a number of important benefits. Firstly, it will allow the US to introduce new sanctions against Russia, writing off Moscow’s portfolio of US Treasury bills. More important is that a new wave of sanctions will create a situation in which Russian companies won’t be able to service their debts to European banks. Glazyev’s set of countermeasures specifically targets the core strength of the US war machine, i.e. the Fed’s printing press. Putin’s advisor proposes the creation of a “broad anti-dollar alliance” of countries willing and able to drop the dollar from their international trade…. An anti-dollar coalition would be the first step for the creation of an anti-war coalition that can help stop the US’ aggression.
Don’t beat around the bush, give it to us straight.
MOPE………….management of perceived economics……..Sinclair
Off topic but maybe a bright spot for nuclear power.
nothing has changed with the FED……..and the central(PLANNERS) bankers………
and gold is manipulated for the millionth time……because, it is all printed FIAT PAPER …….
Nothing has changed ,,,except it is Worse……..$29 trillion in fact…..
We are going to do a bit of background on this issue.
If it is true then it suggests stocks really are risk-free investments. Is that even possible?
Time to buy the miners or the bullion?
Physical first……., then when you have enough or secure…….then miners…..
The miners are suppose to go higher, if they do not go out of business, from bad management, and over compensation for the board.
but, you already know that………
And there’s the rub. I agree. I have some silver bullion put away from 2004/05 but am looking at some of the junior survivors from the last 10 years. I am not interested in any newbie companies coming up; I only want the intrepid ones.
Dan, maybe consider the kitco list on their first page, they seem to be surviving also move together. Smallest ones pay biggest % on moves. Lots of options. also tmm looks like they have a future and still profiting I believe, were range trading between 2-3 for awhile dropped to 1 now just bellow 2 last I looked a day or so ago. svm still paying dividends and in time should overcome the results of those ” stock price manipulating’ false accusations, profitable for the accusers tho as they shorted the heck out of it first.
Oh, well, crooked markets don’t always show every risk, but svm imo has a potential to return to its old glory.
But stories abound everywhere, consider the kitco list maybe.
Just remember that some of these companies are paying fees of sorts to be on lists.
If you have any hot tips………let me know……………..j
My point was just that they are surviving, should gold increase that’s all they need, no?
Personaly, I have stuck to projects in Canada lately, the geopolitical risk seems a lot to me right now.
Mexico and their cartels steeling ore with companies hiding the truth, americans could do know who knows what, mali? iraq? south Africa? Peru making new rules all over south ameirca actually. Enough risk for me just in Criminal markets so I stick to Canada and at least we shouldn’t see the isis any time soon.
But environmental groups still play a roll.
I don’t know if there hot tips ootb, but palladium, pdl, gold, sgr seemed to bottom at 8.5 having a hard time dropping bellow about 13 now. If gold ever turns up sgr could be a 10-20 bagger from 10 cents with gold at 1800. Als suggestion of ith looked good to me too, but last I looked payoff should be about 1500 gold, moves well before then tho, bottomed about 42 cents I think, volatile but last I looked was 60. sgr and ith both on kitco list.
Roll of dice depends on your own dd or luck as always.
Personally I always give my sizable wood carving of a bull a rub when I buy, I like to think it helps.
Generally overcompensation for the management. Boards very seldom get meaningful compensation. (Assuming that you mean cash compensation of some sort.) At American Pacific Bank, we (Board Members) were paid $500 per month.
you are on the wrong board…………,
btw…………..could you lend me a half billion……….I have a hot tip……
Jerry,
I would LUUUVVVVV to go ‘bar hopping” with you and IRISH…you crack me up!!!!
Marc…..I am afraid ,I would drive you to drinking…………
Maybe that is why we don’t hear too much about Aurcana or Premium and the like anymore. Although a couple thousand bucks here and there into a micro-cap may be prudent diversification. Great site Al, I feel obligated to say every couple weeks. Love the old time regulars mixed in with the newcomers and lurkers like myself..
Re: Aurcana: Lenic seems to have disappeared into the woodwork since he screwed all his shareholder
Irishtony2
Guys,
Check out THE GOLD REPORT…..there are a lot of companies that are mentioned that are probably screaming buys….Jay Taylor too……most of Al’s explorers and juniors will survive and prosper – BIG AL ISNT AN IDIOT…RIGHT???…..RIGHT!!
no, but, Al did mention that he fell out of his crib as an infant……..
C’mon Big Al, Gary, surely you have not been taken in by that baloney story on zerohedge that the fed own $29 trillion worth of securities.
Here’s a critique of that story by omfif:
I’m a little bit astonished that people do not actually go and look up the source data.
Yes, the CBs have printed money. The Fed has bought USTs and MBSs, but has made no secret about it. QE has, so to speak, been in all the papers. Other CBs have printed and bought in the markets, too, including equities on the part of the SNB and Danish CB. Look up their balance sheets and it is all there to see. The PBoC is the only entity that is somewhat secretive. In Japan, the BoJ admittedly and in full public view has bought JGBs, while the funds that sat in Yucho and Kampo have been buying a combination of equities and JGBs for decades. None of that is a secret.
The ZH article is question is pure and simple sophist meat-tossing. The cited article (in the FT, from OMFIF) notes THE COMBINATION of CBs, public pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds that currently hold $29.1 trillion of MARKET INVESTMENTS, which include NOT ONLY equities, but also fixed income investments, real estate, and gold. Twenty years ago public pension funds and SWFs also held an asset allocation that included the exact same range of assets. Perhaps it wasn’t $29.1 trillion, but it was a lot. The spurious conclusion of Zerohedge (I think they know better and are merely tossing meat to their always-ready-to-be-outraged active demographic) is that ALL of this is new, ALL of this is CBs, ALL of this is equities, and ALL of this is secret. In point of fact, that is ALL wrong, and even the CB asset allocation is in plain sight.
There is plenty of actual data out there about which we can be outraged, but manufacturing bogeymen, as Zerohedge did in its questionable and inaccurate relaying of the OMFIF report, is bogus. It is creating outrage for the sake of outrage, and anyone who thinks it is robust and timely is going to make investment allocations decisions based on erroneous data.
The market doesn’t react to this “report” not because of some grand conspiracy, but because those who actually follow markets already knew it. Pension funds hold bonds and equities? Who woulda known? Frankly, the report reveals little that wasn’t publicly available already. Zerohedge just happens to have another agenda, which is clicks and ad revenue, so they cater to the addled demographic. If we can call the PTB or Main Stream Media out on their bull, we must do the same to the Streaming Lame Media that is the blogs and netsites. Zerohedge has decided to become the internet version of Honey Boo Boo: fabricated drama for the sake of entertainment.
Link to summary of OMFIF report he refers to –
Thank you Karl. That was very helpful. I was beginning to question my sanity after hearing that ZH story. Much appreciated.
I would just like to say that i don’t usually listen in to gary because of all the conspiracy nonsense, but i made an exception on this occasion !
I’ll buy your long comment above, but to write off all the conspiracies is bunk. LIBOR, FOREX, the gold markets, mortgage-gate, etc. etc. The financial crisis in 2008 was bigger by far than the S&L scandal, yet virtually no one has been prosecuted? Give me a break!
GH is Gary in case you did not know, Karl.
does GH…ever answer Gary…………
Hey, I resemble that remark!
I happen to like Gary specifically because he talks conspiracy nonsense.
Dan Norcini balances things out for me tho.
I like Dan too. To believe that there is all kinds of financial fraud and conspiracy going on is not to say ‘just go long gold no matter what the price action says, because it must soon go to the moon!’
@ karl345
A few comments here:
First, the OMFIF is a globalist think tank that has been created by and for elitists within the Status Quo. Unless you prove me otherwise, Austrian economics and libertarian views are not even considered for debate by the OMFIF as viable solutions to this global economic crisis. Of course, why would they? Wall Street has never been in better shape than today, money for free, yea!
Second, you are wrong about Gary’s comments. If you listen to yesterday’s comments @ 5’05’ and today’s comments @5’20”, Gary explicitly states that he is cautious about Zerohedge estimations, but whatever the real numbers are, what has not been refuted is the fact that a handful of elitists institutions and corporations, mainly banks, have disproportionate power over the global economy, something contrary to the ideal of “free enterprise” and “perfect competition”.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21228354.500-revealed–the-capitalist-network-that-runs-the-world.html
Finally, what is certain is that currencies are being debased worldwide, and that the citizens of the supposedly democratic nations that are run by these elitists think tanks and institutions, are losing not only their purchasing power but their freedoms, by the day… and this without counting what will happen to the unregulated and monstrous derivatives market of over 700 Trillion dollars … Thus, should we be accused of being conspiracy wackos for telling the truth?
Well said. Very!
Bunk to you too, bird.
Your pretense at certainty about what the markets will do, and now this unfounded claim are, as well as your odd claim yesterday that Gary’s May 27th call was somehow terrible (how?) have me looking at your comments with a more critical eye. Still, a lot of them are worthwhile. Even when I don’t agree, they help me keep balanced by testing my assumptions.
OK Gary.
mmm hmmm…I’m losing respect for you, bm. As if Gary wouldn’t be willing to argue with you under his real name, after putting himself on the line every day publicly. He feels the need to create phantom supporters? A lot of people like his stuff. That’s why so many commenters follow him.
Rather than silliness, tell me something intelligent. What, specifically, was wrong with Gary’s may 27th call? What’s wrong with getting in near a swing low, with a well-placed stop? I’m open to your notion that it’s best to wait for more certainty rather than trying to pick a bottom, but what are the mechanics of your entry?
Im yet to hear Bird make a comment regarding entry positions or what he is doing! How about instead of pouting about others you come out and place a trade or something of value that will actually help one make money.
Bird are you shorting?
Bird have you covered your positions?
Bird what is your current status as of today?
Give me something meaningful that will help one make money. If not your just full of it.
By the way were is your good friend jj? He must have covered all shorts since he said he would at 222 hui?
agreed!! Gary nailed the bottom on gold (as did doc) , his subs are up over 70% in 2 weeks, i wonder how profitable those “instincts” are, what they re making money on. even if we fall back to 1240 stops are in place for zero loss 😉
glenn, just use him as a contrarian indicator, you ll make boatloads 🙂
Yeah, a contrary indicator. Ha! Too damned funny. After more than three years of regularly beating the bulls at their game if I miss even one call it is the exception, not a rule. You guys need to get more air. A baby step rise in gold at this stage is sure not the stairway to heaven and there is sure to be more pain along the way. Just don’t forget their are two sides to a trade boys and that the bears have not quite finished dining out at your expense yet.
If The Fed is printing that much money gold is so undervalued that it makes my head spin!
DITTO, DT…
I do think gold is way undervalued. But I think Karl puts it in perspective above, as does Bob Moriarty.
I’m inclined to believe a lot of money is getting funneled into markets by CBs, but this doesn’t sound quite right.
way under valued……………….GH……………
THAT SHOULD BE ………way undervalued!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Gary,
You mentioned that in order for the June 3 cycle low to be in place you needed confirmation. Two key things you were looking at was a 12/13 day uptrend in this cycle to confirm. We are currently in day 12 and challenging 1280. Are we close on that spectrum? Also you said that a break of 1320 would solidify this call. Are we on track?
One last thing. You said that you could see gold rally into september/october at around1550. You said you would take money of the table there. Im curious as to what you see year end and 2015 with gold/miners. I would really like your take please.
thx
I bought some out-of-the-money SPY July Puts yesterday right before market close. Not on anyone’s recommendation, just a hunch. If I lose the bet, no great loss. On the other hand I’ve come away with some nice gains from these hunches; calls AND puts. I know most people don’t have the stomach for that, but to me it’s just a Wall Street casino, so I just play it and let the chips fall where they may.