Silver & Gold WARNING: Potential Whipsaw Ahead
Here is the latest weekend recap of the precious metals markets by our friend Avi Gilburt, over at Ellott Wave Trader. Click here to visit his site.
Over the last week, the metals held support, but really did not do much to the upside. And, while many view this as a consolidation for higher levels, I am not as certain as most of that outcome. But, as long as GLD maintains over 125.75 and silver over 20.82, then that potential still exists.
Now, if I were to draw out a playbook as to how to get the most market participants confused as to the real market direction, I would be looking for a “scary” drop in the GLD towards the 121-123 region. This would make the few remaining bears believe that the “big one” is upon us, and we are on our way to the 1000 region or lower. However, as the retail shorts begin to pile in, the market then maintains support in the 121-123 region, and begins a very strong rally towards the 129-130.50 region. This would serve to reassure all those that have become newly inaugurated bulls that the lows have indeed been seen, and we have truly moved back into the long term bull market.
What this would do would be to take out the weak hands on the long side with a break down below the current consolidation, bring in more retail short side traders on the drop to 121/123, whipsaw the short side traders with one more strong rally, and then bring in more retail long side traders. Ultimately, this scenario would hurt the most traders within this region, only to then skewer these newly inaugurated bulls, as the market then drops to take out the 119 region, on our way to the 100 or potentially even lower.
So, if support does break this coming week, then I am starting to really like the potential for the a-b-c structure in the larger degree e-wave noted on the GLD chart. However, should we develop an impulsive pattern down that either breaks below 121, or takes us into our target, then I will be viewing the market as having topped in the e-wave of the triangle, and setting up for lower lows in the GLD to complete wave 5 down towards the 100 region or lower.
In silver, ideally, we would still be in a 5 wave impulsive pattern, which would mean that silver “should” maintain the .764 extension for wave iv of 3 (20.39), assuming we break below 20.82. But, if silver should break below 20.20, then I would consider adopting the position that silver has topped, especially if we develop a 5 wave impulsive structure to the downside. But, unless silver is able to take out 20.82, there still is a pattern on the chart to take silver to the 22.
So, unfortunately, I do not have a good, high probability set up as to the next move in metals at this time. There are too many variables in this region to be certain of the next move, at least until we get more clues. And, since one does not always have to be in the market at all times, I have no problems waiting to see how the market develops early next week to decide where my next short term trade will be made. But, the two important things to note is, first, that until 125.70 and 20.82 breaks support, we can still see another extension higher. And, second, that until we break down below 121GLD, we can still very well see another push to the 130 region in a more symmetrical e-wave for the 4th wave triangle.
Lastly, I will continue to remind everyone of what I said over the last several months, and may even repeat it week after week until we complete this 3+ year correction:
I want everyone to remember that we are still within a larger degree correction. And, if you remember, corrective action is the most variable of all wave structures. Therefore, we must maintain an open mind as to the possibilities and not assume that something MUST happen, as that is the best way to lose the profits we have in our short trade for 2014. So, if one of our patterns does not maintain below cited resistance, please do not “hope” the position turns back in your favor, and please act appropriately to protect profits.
Lastly, there is one more point I would like to make. While I still believe that we can see another 30+ points lower in the GLD, remember that my long term expectations are that gold will likely at least double from the point we are at right now. So, please do not lose site of the forest when we are dealing with the leaves and trees.
Click here to view the charts Avi is using for his analysis.
Just look at that…..found the perfect article for these comments.
Unorganized and a bunch of scribble a note pad all deteriorating.
M.A.D, I forgot to ask you yesterday- What is your time frame on your price target of $1224?
Dallas can you please tell me if your c target is still on your wish list? You said c target will hit 1220 or 1240 I believe like three weeks ago or so?
My gut says 1320 no more … 1330 the lowest u can get
Classic rubbage. ….gold climbs that wall of worry.
and a whipsaw yes as it moves higher with big shake outs
GAURANTEED TOO !!!!!!
DITTO………….have you seen any SHORTIES……..
Ya…Jerry…where are they.
I saw a few midgets today but it was short lived.
Where is Andrew…i had no back at all today.
Well no, Matthew was around and his posts are amazingly accurate.
I sent out 5 posts yesterday and none of them got
posted to you guys.
That does happen now and then.
I really think too Jerry… this gold bull will take everyone
by surprise. We should be trading at 500 soon. lol
Well, I forgot a few zeros.
CATCH YOU GUYS ON THE REBOUND : )
I’m still here HH. Waffling on about this and that on some of the other blogs!
Getting excited that the tide’s turning at last. Or as our franky would say BUY,BUY gold ……………………………………..boys!
Good….Andrew….
The gold party is here. No surprise.
LETS PARTY ON…MAN.
Stay in and win….
OH MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMY…………..1342…..1342 ……SHORT….SHORT
Looks like no help from the LONDON FIX today…….but,,,DOESN’T THE SILVER FIX stop on JULY 14………..NY……might be loosing it’s MOJO………………
AFTER ALL, we now HAVE MERKLE , PUTIN , AND THE CHINESE making plans to go around the DOLLAR………..bye, bye…yellen, and screaming……anybody without gold better get their shirts glued on ……….because they are about to loose them………
Yeah,we watched gold climb for the last three years.
Classic reality.
With that negative attitude Matt…
How do you get out of the bed in the morning.
Or is it just the wrong side everyday.
Get a positive charge and maybe you won’t be so pessimistic.
Its not doing ya any good Matt.
The last three years didn’t do me much good.
Must have been those positive attitudes that influenced gold down $700.
HA…HA…your a funny guy Matt.
Sign in window of woman driver’s van……………”.GET IN, SET DOWN, SHUT UP AND HANG ON”………………….
don’t go dare ! AL ? a SODO ? J ,,,,,,,,, THE LONG ,,,,,,,,,,OOTB ?
oK , franky , thought the sign was kind of funny,,,,,,but, could be offensive if taken the wrong way………..
Did not mean to offend anyone…………..concerning attitude on gold………
take you feel j,,,,, the long ,,,,,,,, OOTB ! all ok i noting ok i no problem !!!!!!
great…….thanks for the reply……………appreciate……..have a great night…..
I THINK MY OLD POST MIGHT BE IN ORDER TO DAY
.”.GET IN, SET DOWN, BE CALM(change for politically correctness)……………HANG ON”
Correction? Correction? How about the power of government-assisted suppression? The price only rises as that power wanes and slips among the insiders, showing cracks to the outside.
Chuck missler interviewed by David mcalvany. http://www.brotherjohnf.com/archives/313727
I just hope gold keeps climbing all you guys walls of worry.
I’m leavin with Trixie for several weeks and I do like to treat
with candle light dinners at Micky Dees.
All the fun is enduring all the suffering with a cheerful
attitude.
You either call the shots or get washed away with the
snow and rain being a big spender.
Sleeping bags work well too. Being a smoozer don’t hurt either.
Not a schmuck though.
REGULATE AND DELEGATE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! and manipulate……
HA….HA
And guess what…If they don’t like it….
ITS ONE LESS PROBLEM. …..
yeeeeee..haaaaaa
BUY BUY BUY GOLD !!!!!!!!!!!https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=95emnq1v1i8
I told ya – that’s what franky would say….Keep at it franky! A
DITTO…………..1342 ……WHERE ARE THE SHORTS……….DID I SAY LONNNNNGGGGG
The gold and silver market as we know it is just a game of let’s pretend. Good if you want to buy and take delivery until you can’t. Bad if you want to sell.
Not true, Steven
BUY BUY BUY GOLD !!!!!!!!!https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-HaqwFJj4ZY
The looney looking the SKY !!!!!!!!! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Dj9v9s9buk
Why is it bad if you want to sell, I can’t see your point of view and if you don’t reply I will know why.
I no care money adders ok ! Sorry eve i no understate ! i now GOD is the only way ! ok IDIOT !!!!!!!!!
BUY BUY BUY GOLD !!!!!!!!!!! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tNn62o49zec
I am going to go against the grain on this website, silver is over hyped and will always be waiting in the wings.
http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2014/07/cot-turning-point-.html
Discussion of COT gold.
Interesting comments, Avi. In particular the remark at the end of your post where you write
“I want everyone to remember that we are still within a larger degree correction. And, if you remember, corrective action is the most variable of all wave structures. Therefore, we must maintain an open mind as to the possibilities and not assume that something MUST happen.”
—————–
That is essentially my belief as well. Right now we have only reached a technical high that creates a picture of continued lower lows on the daily chart. In other words the next move has a higher probability of declines. Not until a little more sideways action is complete though. Got to draw in more bulls first before pulling the rug out from under them.
The appearance to most people here is that this is a consolidation period and I agree that it is deceptive especially as so many have now piled onto the long side in both gold and silver. The rumble is that gold and silver are set for a rocket launch. Big mistake. Later in the year maybe but not this month.
Until this market makes a decisive move higher it is still in a bear and odds favour caution if not an actual bias to getting ready to short. But I expect this sideways action to play out longer than most have patience for. We have indeed seen two periods in the past year where silver moved sideways for longer than a month and toyed with their emotions before finally dropping (against all the sage advice of the full time bull camp).
We are still looking for a trigger on metals and it is not yet here. Not with the VIX at these lows….not with crude falling towards 100 dollars….not with the dollar threatening to break higher….and not with the strength of US equity markets intact.
If gold does break out it will be a false move that will just attract a sharper decline. So my personal view is that we contain our excitement as this plays outs and not listen to anyone advising “back up the truck”….or “moon shots”…..or “going all in”. Worst damned advice ever. It is premature. Gold can still be a heartbreaker. This bearish period is not over and it probably won’t be over until the Dow starts correcting and volatility begins to rise.
There you are…you finally decided to show up….Bird
I really didn’t think you had it…..in ya.
One thing for certain. ….If you take a good look around there
are other opportunities just….SCREAMING AT YA.
May not hurt to take a look. Well, you know there are only about
What ?? 3 other sectors out there in the financial markets.
I don’t know…. I guess ya got gold and not too many others.
Anyway, maybe the slim picks out there just brings in too many
people to worry about old yeller.
Maybe its just gold fever or NOTHIN…..gee …as I scrstch my head.
I really wonder how I keep from going under with such limitations out there.
WAT U TINK BIRD
I think quite a few four letter words in your case. ALL of your posts are worthy of deletion in my opinion because they amount to pure pollution on this site and drive other contributors away. By the way…I thought you were leaving. Promises, promises. Just more talk.
Sound resaoning Bird.
I am officially a contrary indicator! Too damned funny. Shows you what logic is worth eh.
Wakey, wakey Bird, time to start blogging – not a moment to lose.
Your usual personal comment is unwelcome and unnecessary. Why don’t you comment on gold rather than Birdman for a change of pace.
Yep…same page Bird…same page.
But like I’ve previously said, you me & only a few of the other minority are currently the Robin Crusoe’s on this perma gold bull island…the majority are out the backyard baying at the moon….which has been the same their same howl all the way down from the top !!!
Sprott, Rule, Rogers etc NEVER screamed at the top SELL & get out & make a financial killing.
They led everyone smack bang into a slaughter…then told everyone what a great opportunity it was to buy…all the way down…all the way !!!
Its sad to watch. ..honestly
Gold will have its time (thats why I’m here)
But its done nothing…yet.
Cheers
You never sell in a bull market,,,,,,or you loose your position…, Timing is everything in investment…………..get in early………and stay for the bubble pops……..You can not time gold……….get serious…..
My question to you….Sheeta……….how old are you? Not trying to be rude, but, where you here the last time…………like 1970?……
were not where…..sorry..
Hi Jerry,
No…I wasn’t buying gold in 1970…I was only 2 years old back then !
I’ve currently got 75% of my allocated capital in the mining shares,
I’m also pretty happy with the returns on them so far…eg
SARACEN +128.84%
OCEANAGOLD + 96.11%
NORTHERN STAR +69.89%
But that said, I’m not yet convinced that the Bull is back running full tilt…yet.
So, my remaining capital will stay in my pocket…for now.
If this run can close & hold 1400 then I’ll pull the trigger.
But I don’t think it will ? Just my opinion (gut feeling)
I think I’ll get an opportunity to purchase more shares at a lower gold price
I could be wrong ?…I could be right ?
Guess we’ll have to wait & see.
Cheers.
Skeeta………thanks for the reply……..You are not really short,,,you are a gold bug too,,with 75% invested of allocated capital,,,,,,you have more stocks than most.,,,,cheers to you…..and hope the bull treats you to a wonderful future……..again cheers………………………………….j……………………the long……………
That’s what makes a market. Some win and most if not all lose in gold.
Gold is s beast. ….you have to be in…..to win.
A REAL BEAST….HH, hope all things are ok with you today……….best………….jerry
You too Jerry. Thanks ….
Golds on the way to 2000 and it might come quick.
Before xmas. Its going to be shake and bake.
GOTTA BE IN…TO WIN.
The party is here. Fortunes…
Absolutly Skeeta.
A lot of talk “BUY BUY BUY” funny how they don’t mention sell other than very quietly.
I think that attitude probly harms the investments in PMs as it drives people away.
Just my opinion of course, but there is a lot of “crooked” to deal with already, more suspicion isn’t required.
I gotta say tho, I really like J Turk and J Rickards.
Guess I just like their thinking, Im sure there are others as well, Its not like I know every contributor.
I don’t follow Turk myself, bb, however Jim Rickards is a guy I am a fan of since I started tuning in and reading his work. That is a very intelligent hardworking guy and he makes a great case. Probably one of the best.
Bird, Turk does a lot of work, interesting reads etc, but basically he advocates buying a % in physical every month. Pretty simple actually. I just agree with it.
True enough Skeeta. Those of us on the bear side can err as well unfortunately and given today’s action this one goes to the perma-bulls. Not that it matters much because they are ALWAYS bulls so eventually they would have to be right (I don’t give them a lot of credit in other words because their bet is one-sided).
Well, Im a perma bull Bird, I think we are going to who knows? 5-15k?
But I do think there will be lots of down times too, which is why I liked jj so much.
Might as well make money in both directions if possible.
so we have a breakout in gold silver GDX GDXJ….question is how far it goes and when does it reverse. we are way way overbought having gone vertical.
is this a false breakout ?
yada….yada…yada….
1340’s a start Skeeta!
HH that’s not yours is it?
http://news.sky.com/story/1298516/hotel-valet-crashes-lamborghini-into-wall
No,,,,,,that was just a LAMB, being taken to the slaughter………..the guy was Short, and could not see thur the windshield., or was looking thur his rear view mirror, and texting at the same time.
texting to his broker………..go long, go long,,golllllllllll (bang,boom,wreak)
wreak,,,is a small wreck…………., or a wreck with an acent………..
Jerrys right….some cowboy thought he could trade gold
WOOOPS !!!!!!
Andrew I do like aston martins though. Would never buy one.
Just give me dirt…land….oh and I guess I new pair of boots to kick it.
I’m going out to do just that.
Just take a dust rag with you,,,,or an extra pair…………..I LIKE ALLIGATOR BOOTS, it’s a southern thing……….ya know………………………j………
A gentleman must always look his best…….
I did say I LIKE DIRT………I think I am going back to Real estate, after gold is done, or gone for a nap………..Dirt,limited in supply,,,and with all the illegals coming in they are going to need a shack to live in…………….but, it will not be a MCMANSION, those will be rooming houses of the future.
Too funny Jerry.
Forget the boots……WANT THE LAND.
Maybe 5000 hectares to add to the land bank
LAND BANK….better than gold. long term.
ditto on the Land Bank………….just got to be careful of the tax authority people, who, like to tax the hell out of a person’s hard work………Local tax thieves……If, we get to many of these illegal running over the population……Real estate taxes is where they will be looking…….
Jerry
Always that wall of worry.
Just have to buy low…find bargains and subdivide sell off small bits over many years for good money. Its literally a bank. Money is solid to. Only way to stay rich.
LAND BANK.
I forgot to tell you I hold a degree from a Major BIG 10 University in REAL ESTATE ADMIN.
BS 1970,back when nobody knew what it was, and only 10% of the people could pass the test,,,,NOW every tom dick and harry is an expert, …So, my background is in DIRT…lIKE YOU I have made small fortunes…flipping dirt, before people knew what flipping was………..Your idea is one of the great one’s, as I said I intend to return to my old habits, when the time is ready……But, Gold is in Play….and all investments have their day………They all rotate, in and out, that is just Humans at play.
Its all good if your prospering…Jerry.
Gold is excellent asset right now..
So have both….have it all.
Except for the blonde bimbo. Ha
I AGREE…….I am holding both…………the dirt is just resting….
agree on the bimbos
Same with me HH. Mostly talk by me about Astons is just talk. lol. Although if you’ve got one begging in your used car lot…
By the way has the bird gone to sleep on us?
Ya not a fat chance Andrew…no car dealer biz.
I was though at one time.
Any whooooo…bird is in rehab. Just a stooper he’s in.
Happens to all of us at one time or another.
But Andrew party boy……
Does not mean we have to poop this party.
OLD YELLER LIVES ON.
I had a busy day Reverend. Shopping up a storm. All cash. Nothing is on credit in my life.
I am going to begin asking Al and Cory to keep their word and delete any more of your personal posts HH. Fair warning.
So much about whipsaw … haha wrong again… gold has touched 1346 today … yee haaa
Don’t be too quick to call it wrong Nur. It is not over yet.
Hopefully the score will be 7-1 today … just like how german beats brazil … let jp morgan tastes the most humiliating moment of their history in their own backyard
1346 is not enough for today … make it 1700 … then people will forget german
Ditto………….just hang in there………1500 by year end…….no problem….
the shorts hate to be wrong, and are just to proud to admit it…….pride is a dangerous thing………
Well that is not true at all Jerry. I am more than happy to admit if I get a call wrong. I am also more than happy to switch positions if the wind changes. Jeez Louise you have me figured completely wrong. I don’t give a hoot if it rises or falls because I have no loyalty to the stuff whatsoever. It is just a trade.
Bird……….NEVER MENTIONED YOUR NAME……..
BUT, I do agree with you ………..it is just a trade,,,,sometime……..but, I just like to hold,,,,,,,till the bubble…………then I will change……
Oh my… the short sellers are coming and attacking right now… not so furious… may be to test the water
WELL IT IS WELL PAST ….8AM..usa time,,,,Yellen is awake, just got done having breakfast with the boyz,,,, SHE says, Mr. President, what shall we do, I declair the London boyz, have not done their job as promised, I feel shorted, What shall we do?
Mr. President….Do not bother me with such trivial matters…….You FIX IT, with the boyz,,,,,by the way, I forgot their names,,,and just who did you say you were,,,oh, yes, Ms. Yellen…..
Mr.President says to Yellen,,,,…..”.I need to get back to the POOL HALL.,,,I got a pick up game today, and Hilley said she had a big check for me for promoting her book,,,ya, know that is the way it works….”
What? Ms. Yellen? For such an old … very old woman… still not married … wasting time … live without a decent aspiration
She does not use here married name……….Women’s LIB……..
here……should be her………
The direction has always been up for old yeller since I loaded all semi trucks
and freight trains in dec. 2013.
I’m stayin in too…until at least 2000 gold.
Everyone including all the analyists can go pound sand.
The timing and trading strategies are all with out merit and dead wrong.
The fortunes are made staying in.
ITS ALL POPPYCOCK BULLCRAP. The negativity and timing B.S.
THATS WHAT IT IS TOO.
HH…..2000 might be a little short of the golden “ruler”………
Your right Jerry. But I have so much capitol in this sector
that its foolish not to walk away.
Il leave some on to ride. The money I take out can be safely
invested on another gravy train.
BUY LOW….SELL HIGH
leave some, as you mentioned, a little dry powder, just in case it decides to get crazy, but, ……..when the frenzy hits,,,,,,$2000 might be a short of the goal. But, one must not get to crazy, ….a little safety is always wise.
When your taking big fortunes….I’m out..
SHOWS OVER…
Even now. But this run has 2000 written all over it
I have to agree with you……..$2000 is just over the $1950….and it will blow by that in a breeze. As, you said, take some profits , rake some off the table, and smile all the way to the bank………land bank that is…………..best appreciate the conversation..j
Jerry
I’m in gold futures and 400 percent long the juniors.
Thats why at some point ya gotta leave the party.
ALSO KNOWING WHEN TO SELL IS AS IMPORTANT AS WHEN TO BUY.
Strategy is to get out with the big.
Who knows though, I could be in to 5000 gold.
Too early to say. Still though…. have a plan
I agree……………
Wise and precise .. suits your name .. heavyhitter
Thanks Nur….
You stay in. Everyone thing else is BS.
WE ALL NEED A PLAN THOUGH. Selling is important at some point.
VERY IMPORTANT.
BTW……….thanks for the tip on the GDXJ…………..
Hoping for more shorters and more takers … gosh
Theeeeeeeeeeeeeeere at the gate, and a horse named Platinum is in the lead.
DT……….platinum is a sleeper……..nobody is watching….it is going to go way back up when gold takes off……………I bet you will see $4000
Only up $6…………….the horse needs to get the lead out……shed the saddle and go bare back…….Indian style……..
Platinum and palladium are only two of the cartel tools to distract crowds attention from gold and silver … my 2 cents
Your 2 cents ……..is exactly that 2 cents………better go look at some charts and do some reading on rare metals………beside, ever own a platinum coin.? ever bought platinum jewelry? ……..not trying to be smart here…..IMHO……..
Yeah im might be wrong … but thats just what I feel … the cartel has weaker ability to supress silver and gold even with papers … why not create 2 sparing partners … like I said u might make profit… yet … the cartel will be very happy about it
In all due respect…………platinum is a good investment, but, should not be a major investment, only, what I would consider a small but SLEEPER INVESTMENT.,
BUY IT , HOLD IT, Long TERM it will surprise you…..
Dick must be a bankster … lol .. what a name there
Friends here … please dont buy platinum or palladium … right … u may makr some profit by buying them… because thats what the cartel wants to discard attention from gold and silver … like I said … both pgm are just tools … while gold and silver are real money
NABAA……..platinum is just another trade,…….in which to squeeze some extra returns out of your investments, it is not a distraction against gold or silver, YOU ARE MISSING THE POINT…….and therefore , you will miss the opportunity….Check back with me in 18 months……….I’ll still be here…………….best…………j……
Another “trade”? If that the case… I agree .. sorry for my ignorance
Woe … shortsellers are very brave right now … making gold 1338.80 … they must be happy right now… we’ll see for long they will remain and increase their short positions
More shorters please .. for more short squeeze
They’re sure hanging it out to dry this afternoon. The MACD / Stochs / RSI divergences on the 4-hour and 8-hour gold charts are absolutely terrifying. $1224, here we come.