Starting the week with Doc and Gary
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Agree Doc and Al underwater!!
I suspect Al was calling from different location and Corey had him on speakerphone while recording, which would explain different tone. No worries.
It was different but good. When Andrew McGuire calls threw VoIP on KWN i can barely understand him so this is nothing comparing to other.
Thank is exactly what happened. Thanks Stewie!
I have already apologized twice. Here is number three Reverend!
Although I hope Gary is right, I’m stepping out of the gold market this week to wait and see. I still think that geopolitical events will take gold higher eventually (from Edelson), but as things continue to escalate like on Friday, yet gold takes a dive, that confuses the heck out of me. I’m starting to agree with Avi more that it is driven by pure sentiment (whatever the heck that means…) instead of any given news story. Let’s see if Doc’s target is reached. If it is, that would also be confusing because that would indicate a failed daily cycle for Gary. So, yeah… it’s a nice time for me to bag some profits and watch from the sidelines.
Agreed
GDXJ Golden Cross: It’s finally going to happen…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p15617911741&a=359790623
Is anyone considering investing is Russia (RUSL) pretty soon? If the Russia markets react the same way as they did after the first initial drop following US Sanctions Round 1, the Russia market might be the place to be…
Rogers mentioned he was buying the Russian market a few months ago.
Came back after the first time and I would guess the same would happen again.
The etc you mentioned looks pretty solid.
Rsx was a great buy months ago but I got out too early.
Wiseguy, always trust your gut feeling. If it doesn’t feel right, step out of the arena. Personally I am long gold coming into this week; let’s see how that goes.
Here is an interesting video showing the Malaysian plane being hit: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.nl/2014/07/video-of-mh17-hit-by-missile-update.html
Great post, Chris. Those are good questions to ask, especially about how quickly Ukraine labeled the specific type of weapon used and confiscated the Black Box. If they are hiding it, that implies their own guilt, no?
Each side has to bring concrete evidence to the table if the want to prove their case. If not, they will back themselves into a corner and will not be able to fight their way out of it. All I am seeing now is a bunch of finger pointing and a lot of hot air being blown.
Great post? What is so great about it?
Mr. Miller, I believe it is the reference to “gut level feelings”.
Sorry, I meant, great link.
Since Wiseguy was referring to the link and not his “gut feeling”, I repeat, “Great post? What is so great about it?”.
Hi JMiller,
I was referring to the questions posed by the Russians about how Ukraine deduced so quickly about the type of missile used and by who, then being wrong about the Americans on board. It just leads to questions that must be answered by the Ukraine and the US (see Bob Moriarty’s interview today).
What an absolutely screwed up situation.
I simply cannot believe that the Russians would instigate an absolutely no-win and an “absolutely no reason for doing that” action.
Not correct. This is a video of an Ukrainian military plane AN-30 that was shot down back in June. Why did Mish not even realize this? All he had to do is go to YouTube and see that the video was posted on June 6th.
Question..I have a number of P.M. stocks in various self directed Can. bank brokerage accounts (RRSP, TFSA, etc.) but no longer trust even Canadian banks for potential bail-ins. I want to keep the stocks and move them in kind but I’m not sure where in Canada to transfer them to so that they may be safe from bail-ins. Any good ideas out there? I’m sure there are many others in the same boat as me.
I keep all of my certificates with brokerage firms.
I will add to al’s comments. There was a very good piece about a year ago on jim sinclairs web site regarding your question. So these are the following three ways to keep stock shares in the system or out.
For the sake of everyone I will post them from least safest to most safest.
1. Least safest: Street name..If you’re not sure how to hold your shares, street name ownership is probably your best bet. For most investors, the advantages of this form of ownership outweigh the few negatives:
Easy handling of dividends: Dividends paid by companies you own stock in are sent directly to your online broker, which then deposits them to your account.
Central source of company documents: If you’re like most online investors, you probably own shares of several companies. When you own the stock in street name, all the paper correspondence sent out by the companies first goes to your broker. The broker then forwards it to you.
Security: It’s up to the brokerage to safeguard your stock.
Easy to sell: If your online broker has your shares on hand, you can sell them anytime you want without having to mail in a paper certificate first.
Street name ownership does come with a few disadvantages:
Potential delays in dividend payments: Some brokers are quicker about crediting dividends to your account than others.
Hassle if your broker fails: Getting stock certificates transferred back to your name might be harder if your brokerage becomes insolvent.
2. Drs :You get several advantages from having directly registering your stocks:
Company correspondence comes straight to you.
You can sell shares without mailing certificates to your broker.
You don’t have to worry about keeping the certificates safe.
Direct registration has two main downsides:
Inability to sell shares immediately: You may instruct the company to sell the shares, but your request is generally put into a pool and executed later in the day, week, or month. You may also sell your shares by instructing the company’s transfer agent to electronically send the stock to your online broker. The transfer process can take a few days, so the price might change by the time you’re able to sell the stock.
Pool of stock choices is somewhat reduced: Most companies offer direct registration, but not all. Many of the stocks you want to buy might not offer direct registration.
3. Safest:Paper certificate stock ownership
The advantages to paper certificate ownership include the following:
Cutting out the middleman: Company materials come straight to you. This can reduce the time it takes to get some documents.
Using certificates as loan collateral: When you have the actual certificates, you might have a little easier time using the stock value to secure a loan.
Having actual certificates makes it easier to give them as gifts or for display: A paper certificate can be framed and given to young investors as a present. There’s something nice about having an item to wrap.
Being in control: With the certificates in your possession, you know where they are and can decide who can have them.
The following disadvantages to paper certificate ownership far outweigh the advantages:
Difficulty in selling: Paper certificates must be mailed to your broker or to the company or a firm it hires to handle such matters so the stock can be sold. Some online brokers may charge extra to process paper certificates.
Burden of keeping your contact information current with the company: It’s up to you to make sure that the company has your current address.
Responsibility for safekeeping the certificates: You’ll probably have to spend money to get a safe deposit box. And when you send them through the mail, you will need to insure them in case they get lost.
Al maybe you can clarify as to what category you are? Im guessing you have certificates held with broker but in any event you would not be able to sell them quickly. My understanding is a broker could not sell your certificates. They would have to be transfered to the tranfer agent first then sent back to brokerage as drs or street name then sold. Maybe im wrong.
I get immediate execution. I deal with Sprott Global.
That’s awesome Al.. Im with td waterhouse and they personally don’t hold certificate form form. In fact I have had a few battles with them. They will hold street name and some direct registration stock companies.
Im going to look into Sprott Global. Is there a premium or fee you pay for them to hold your certificates?
But you are talking about the worry over counter party risk here and not the risk of stocks being sold off to support a bail-in (which is not permitted anyway). The two issues are separate.
Randall, why would you think that equity holdings would be part of a bail-in? They are not. The bail-in applies to excess savings held in banks that would be converted to bank equity in the event of a Canadian bank coming under serious stress. They cannot cash out your other equity investments (which would impair other private company shares) and then convert those into bank stock in other words. Try to sleep better and worry less. In the extremely unlikely event the day does arrive that Can. banks can liquidate your pension holdings or private investments in stocks to save their own sorry hides then you can be sure NOTHING is safe anymore. That would include your home, your personal possessions and perhaps your life and liberty too.
if you have a chance look at the CBO reports last week. The big one says we are headed to a fiscal crisis due to debt–CBO lowered its GDP assumptions.
CBO also says the Soc Sec and medicare trust funds run out of money sooner, due mostly to the surprise of lower tax receipts (as people earn less money due to part time jobs and lower quality jobs)
everything now rests on how adept the Fed/Treasury are in containing metals and pushing up the stock and bond markets.
the timing problem is probably that when things break, its going to be a gusher.
I trust even those trading metals have a core position that they are holding.
I believe that the term used for this year by the CBO was “moribund”.
by the way, CBO mentioned Debt to GDP at 77%–it uses debt w/o the 5 trillion owned to soc and medicare. GDP–which comes from commerce–St Louis Fed uses 15.8 Trillion and that might be before the minus 2.9% first qtr–so even within govt agencies and the Fed things are screwed up.
they paint whatever picture they want–real debt GDP is more like 112% and we are on our way to financial oblivion.
The bigger picture for GDXJ looks great (so far). Here’s a simple look:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=W&yr=3&mn=9&dy=0&id=p64603031029&a=360065899
Thanks for the charts, Matthew! Really appreciate it. The big boys dumped their conventional market stocks a long time ago. Now it’s just retail and Fed buying.
I believe that the biggest, smartest money really started its rotation about a year ago. I don’t think they are done. At current levels, it is smart money that continues to offer S&P shares to new buyers.
Priced in miners, not dollars, it’s over for conventional stocks. The following chart shows that rotating now is still very much the smart thing to do.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY:GDXJ&p=M&yr=11&mn=11&dy=11&id=p06752669336&a=360278896
Great chart Matthew. Shockingly I actually agree with you here.
We at the KER think that we are getting very close to that point.
Priced in miners, not dollars, it’s over for gold, too…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD:$HUI&p=M&yr=20&mn=11&dy=11&id=p89665072236&a=360291732
We at KER say “not yet at this point”.
Remember, Al, priced in miners, not dollars. Do you think gold is going to make a new high when measure by the HUI?
I also agree that the gold miners should outperform gold if indeed this is the resumption of the secular bull (I think it is). That chart seems to indicate a head and shoulders too, correct? I see the miners pulling back in the very short term, but the JNUG in and out trade is my favorite one going forward (I’m currently out but that’s also because I’m moving countries right now and about to lose Internet).
Correct, Wiseguy. Here’s a better look at it on a weekly chart instead of monthly:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD:$HUI&p=W&yr=8&mn=11&dy=30&id=p47442874359&a=360411565
That neckline will give way soon in my opinion.
Miners have moved up too much versus gold.
Big picture Paul. I’m talking about the next trend for investors to ride, not to trade every other day. Click on the chart I provided and you’ll see that gold is at an extreme high in terms of mining stocks and has been rolling over for nearly a year.
You think so?
Doc agrees. He thinks it will come back a bit first however.
With all due respect, Doc thinks a lot of things but he is often not correct.
What comes to mind…….When anyone says National Gurard……….is week end warrior, and KENT STATE………Some of the troops might decide to take the week end off and go on down to CANCUN , to hell with the borders………after all Obama takes off every other day and vacations……..so, why not………………
“Gurard”…….is our new members from France
I do find that to be curious!
About time in my personal opinion.
Big Picture………..London up $18……..NY down………same ole , same ole MOPE
BS……….Chinese adding……..London FIXing ……..
We are approaching 100% debt to GDP……can anyone say BROKE.
Sorry HAL……..did not see your post before posting…….
Hi Gary – can you please tell us a bit about your service? What do you typically use for trading vehicles? JNUG, JDST, GDXJ… or specific stocks? How long is the typical hold period? Do you advise on core longer term holdings? if yes , what are those? ETF’s as well?
many thanks. I will most likely give your service a try.
Put my name in the hat for a summer correction Cory. I am looking for wheat, corn, crude and heating oil to rise with most of the metals. So the direction for gold is now positive and that will be a big plus for miners and some of the beaten down energy stocks. I think this corrective period will frustrate most though. There won’t be a lot of drama so no easy scores as it evolves. The reason is the market has sufficient support that we should NOT anticipate sharp drops. Too many still buying the dips. As I mentioned in detail on the weekend it is my belief we will be back in bull mode by September.
lol-we are way past 100%–when you use the 15.8 Trillion GDP , the 17.6 Trillion funded debt, and somewhere between 100-200 Trillion of unfunded present value of entitlements.
There is no way out of this other than nasty defaults in some form or just default by inflation.
Its difficult to admit and swallow.
take the cbo report which says deficits will increase.
Buehler, anybody, please explain how to extricate ourselves from this debt mess. Without serious pain.
Here’s how: Executive Order the Fed to forgive all of the US debt.
I’m half-way serious that I would like to see what the markets around the world would do if Obama wrote an Executive Order for the Federal Reserve to immediately purchase and forgive any and all US debt available. I guess the dollar would fall, but by how much? It would stop eventually, right? Then, life as usual resumes once they announce they will slowly start “tapering” their buying.
Sure they could do that. It has been recommended to the Japanese government to just take all its debt chits, put them in a pile and pour gasoline on it. But that money is almost all owed to the citizens of the country, its banks, insurance companies and pension plans. The country would just be defaulting on itself in other words. So in the US, most of the debt is owed internally so cities, states, pension funds, agencies of the government etcetera would all be out of pocket. A few trillion in losses would be dished out to the Chinese and Japanese along with most of the developed world and a hyperinflation would erupt in America as no new lending would mean the printing press would fill the void. It makes about as much sense to just seize all the 401ks and private pension plans as they are roughly equal to current liabilities. That is the ultimate get out of hock card but it would be equally damaging because the country would veer directly into a fully socialist state. The better ideas that have been dreamed up are to block sales of bonds or to confiscate excess bank savings and convert them to equity stakes in the institution. None of this is pleasant though. Obviously we would all prefer the country just slowly grow its way out of the problem but it won’t be until 2025 that the pension and healthcare burdens of the current retiring generation start to actually decline. If they can keep rates at zero until then maybe they can pull it off. Crazy as bats of course but crazy times call for insane answers.
If the Federal Reserve forgives all of the debt that it owns, and then buys up the other debt that becomes available on the market (possibly through Belgium or whatever other minions they choose), I think it could be done without completely defaulting. I mean, the dollar fell when QE was suggested, but it didn’t go into hyperinflation. At this point, if it comes as a new policy of the Fed (maybe not via Executive Order), I’m not completely sure people would absolutely panic. They just need some crazy name similar to “Quantitative Easing.” How about “Liability Reduction/Liability Support.”
Birdman, I appreciate your posts but logically your last post doesn’t make sense unless you are speaking rhetorically and in summation. The idea that interest rates can be kept at 0 until 2025 is beyond the realm of possibility. The economy will tank long before that. They can’t pull it off period. It’s only a matter of time before this whole thing implodes and those that aren’t ready stand to lose it all. Regards.!!
I appreciate you realized I was saying that tongue in cheek, Gator. No way in hell can rates be zero for 11 more years…..or caaaaaaan they? 😉
“That is the ultimate get out of hock card but it would be equally damaging because the country would veer directly into a fully socialist state.’
I would change the final three words to a “fully recognized and admitted socialist state.”
Well, there you go!
Of course only not “serious pain” but “severe and serious pain”!
Audio problems!
Never again!
As I suspected the Fed is going to rescue the market before the close.
We no longer have free markets in any sense of the word.
Gary, how long do you think this insanity can continue? Personally I believe there will not be a correction. I think the markets are going to crash in one big shot.
Not to worry Gary. I still think this market is going into decline. It is just setting up. Some commodities still need to find bottoms that will signal the shift. Meantime we are not likely going to be breaking out to new highs in my view.
“We no longer have free markets in any sense of the word.”
If that is true Gary then please tell me how it serves the Fed to keep pumping up stocks all the way into the conclusion of QE which we all know is probably the time when investors will pull out and possibly precipitate a crash. Hell, they are already betting hard on a September/October correction. In other words, if the Fed had any control whatsoever they would blow off the froth well before QE and thus assure a late fall rally.
Gary: The Miners came back again today particularly GDXJ which of course is leading the Gold complex higher right now…I think CPI comes in a bit warm tomorrow am and that will zoom us higher…what are your thoughts?
And thank you for your contributions on th site it is much appreciated
Much appreciated by all of us here at KER!
I think the market heads higher into us elections. Dow and s&p.. To late for a selloff with elections around the corner.
I believe Those who are calling for a correction for the past several years obviously missed out on one the biggest bull runs in history.
Looks like doc is right once again Gold will probably drop below 1390
Turn the mics up!